Autopsy of a Loss: Duke vs FSU

[dukelifer]

Seems like you’re saying they’re largely underachieving and failing to capitalize on their talent after 2.5ish months of the season. That’s on everyone including the coaches. The season is over halfway complete. The postseason starts in 7 weeks. The team has time to figure those things you mentioned out, but it’s disappointing to see them not be elite when the talent is there. They’re a good team, not excellent, but they really have the pieces to be unstoppable. They’re frustrating to watch at times for sure.

They have talented players and have all the elements you want in a team - but we all thought based on early play that Keels would be Jayson Williams 2.0 and Moore was going to have a breakout season. Keels is strong and will get there but he turned out to be typical Freshman with no elite or consistent offensive skill set. Moore regressed- maybe Covid- maybe something else but he was close to a POY candidate and now not so much. This team can play D but their style leaves them vulnerable to offensive rebounds against bouncy athletic teams. K can tighten the D- but the half court O is not where it needs to be and may not get there. AJ is an X factor- but also just a freshman. Still he is better at O than anyone not named Paolo. As such Duke will be in a lot of close games. Hard to get separation when you go on multi minute scoring droughts.

[Natty_B]

Seems like you’re saying they’re largely underachieving and failing to capitalize on their talent after 2.5ish months of the season. That’s on everyone including the coaches. The season is over halfway complete. The postseason starts in 7 weeks. The team has time to figure those things you mentioned out, but it’s disappointing to see them not be elite when the talent is there. They’re a good team, not excellent, but they really have the pieces to be unstoppable. They’re frustrating to watch at times for sure.

Because sometimes 21-23 (Moore of Miami is 23) year old players are better than 18-19 year old players.

[CDu]

They have talented players and have all the elements you want in a team - but we all thought based on early play that Keels would be Jayson Williams 2.0 and Moore was going to have a breakout season. Keels is strong and will get there but he turned out to be typical Freshman with no elite or consistent offensive skill set. Moore regressed- maybe Covid- maybe something else but he was close to a POY candidate and now not so much. This team can play D but their style leaves them vulnerable to offensive rebounds against bouncy athletic teams. K can tighten the D- but the half court O is not where it needs to be and may not get there. AJ is an X factor- but also just a freshman. Still he is better at O than anyone not named Paolo. As such Duke will be in a lot of close games. Hard to get separation when you go on multi minute scoring droughts.

To be fair, I don't think many folks thought Keels would be Jason Williams 2.0. Even after his first game.

[dukelifer]

To be fair, I don't think many folks thought Keels would be Jason Williams 2.0. Even after his first game.

Well there was a ton of buzz after the secret game against Nova and a ton of expectations after the KY game. He also had the rep of an elite shooter. All that said- we began with much higher expectations of a player better than his ranking. He is a key to the D and brings a toughness to the team- but his game is very Freshman-like

[CDu]

Well there was a ton of buzz after the secret game against Nova and a ton of expectations after the KY game. He also had the rep of an elite shooter. All that said- we began with much higher expectations of a player better than his ranking. He is a key to the D and brings a toughness to the team- but his game is very Freshman-like

Oh now that I completely agree with. Expectations went from "hopefully better than Steward" to "oh man this guy might be a lottery pick". In reality, "better than Steward" was probably the right level of expectation after all.

Hopefully the shot starts to improve. But right now, I agree, the results have definitely fallen short of expectation there. He's overachieved in nearly every other aspect (ballhandling, passing, defense), but his shooting has been a much bigger problem than expected.

[Phredd3]

To be fair, I don't think many folks thought Keels would be Jason Williams 2.0. Even after his first game.

What I was initially hoping for with Keels was an outside threat. We didn't get it. It's gotten to the point where I cringe a little when he takes a three, and I'm relieved when it goes in. He did initially show the ability to drive and disrupt, but that's been harder lately because a) he's had better defenders facing him in conference play, and b) they tend to sag off a little now that his shooting form has been established as not threatening enough (on decently high volume - 89 attempts so far, 5+ per game, far and away the most on the team). The problem is compounded, of course, by our complete ineptitude at rebounding. A fair number of Keels' threes have ended in a fast break the wrong way.

So yeah, not Jason Williams, and not Jon Scheyer, either.

[CameronDuke]

We've talked a lot about the turnovers committed by Duke. But Florida State committed five !!!! turnovers in an overtime game. Yes, Duke played zone a good bit of the second half but Duke wasn't forcing any in m2m either. And an aggressive zone can force turnovers. And Duke didn't force turnovers in the loss to Miami. For a time that was talking big about their great defense early in the season, Duke sure isn't walking the walk. Getting out rebounded and losing the turnover count and losing the free-throw battle is not a winning recipe.

Some of Duke’s most successful teams in recent memory had great defenses on Kenpom. Duke does not have a great defense this season on Kenpom. They’re good but not great.

Duke defense on Kenpom:

01-02 - 31-4; ACCT champs; Sweet 16; Kenpom defense rank of 1 (offense was ranked 1, too)

02-03 - 26-7; ACCT champs; Sweet 16; Kenpom defense rank of 15

03-04 - 31-6; ACC regular season champs; Final Four; Kenpom defense rank of 3 (offense was ranked 2, too)

04-05 - 27-6; ACCT champs; Sweet 16; Kenpom defense rank of 2

05-06 - 32-4; ACC regular season champs; ACCT champs; Sweet 16; Kenpom defense rank of 16 (offense was ranked 1, too)

06-07 - 22-11; NCAAT round of 64; Kenpom defense rank of 6 (offense was historically bad for Duke at 44)

07-08 - 28-7; NCAAT round of 32; Kenpom defense rank of 7

08-09 - 30-7; ACCT champs; Sweet 16; Kenpom defense rank of 28 (offense was ranked 7)

09-10 - 35-5; ACC regular season co-champs; ACCT champs; National Champions; Kenpom defense rank of 5 (offense was ranked 1)

10-11 - 32-5; ACCT champs; Sweet 16; Kenpom defense rank of 9 (offense was ranked 5)

11-12 - 27-7; NCAAT round of 64; Kenpom defense rank of 79 (offense was ranked 8)

12-13 - 30-6; Elite 8; Kenpom defense rank of 26 (offense was ranked 4)

13-14 - 26-9; NCAAT round of 64; Kenpom defense was ranked 86 (offense was ranked 1)

14-15 - 35-4; National Champions; Kenpom defense rank of 11 (offense was ranked 3)

15-16 - 25-11; Sweet 16; Kenpom defense rank of 86 (offense was 4)

16-17 - 28-9; ACCT champs; NCAAT round of 32; Kenpom defense rank of 47 (offense was ranked 6)

17-18 - 29-8; Elite 8; Kenpom defense rank of 9 (offense was ranked 3)

18-19 - 32-6; ACCT champs; Elite 8; Kenpom defense rank of 6 (offense was ranked 7)

19-20 - 25-6; COVID; Kenpom defense rank of 9 (offense was ranked 9)

20-21 - 13-11; Kenpom defense rank of 79 (offense was ranked 18)

21-22 - 14-3; Kenpom defense rank of 22 (offense is 9)

Since 01-02, there have only been 7 worse defenses for Duke on Kenpom. This defense isn’t excellent yet. It may never be. I hope it is.

[CDu]

Some of Duke’s most successful teams in recent memory had great defenses on Kenpom. Duke does not have a great defense this season on Kenpom. They’re good but not great.

Duke defense on Kenpom:

14-15 - 35-4; National Champions; Kenpom defense rank of 11 (offense was ranked 3)

Since 01-02, there have only been 7 worst defenses for Duke on Kenpom. This defense isn’t excellent yet. It may never be. I hope it is.

It's perhaps not fair to compare a January rating for a young team with an end-of-season rating from a past team. The championship team, for example, was notably worse defensively at this point in that season than this current Duke team is. I believe they were in the 40s in January. They really turned it on in the second half.

Now, there's no way to know if this team will go on a tear defensively as well. But the 2014-15 team is an example of the challenge of comparing midseason with end-season ratings - especially with a young team that is still learning.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Some of Duke’s most successful teams in recent memory had great defenses on Kenpom. Duke does not have a great defense this season on Kenpom. They’re good but not great.

Duke defense on Kenpom:

01-02 - 31-4; ACCT champs; Sweet 16; Kenpom defense rank of 1 (offense was ranked 1, too)

02-03 - 26-7; ACCT champs; Sweet 16; Kenpom defense rank of 15

03-04 - 31-6; ACC regular season champs; Final Four; Kenpom defense rank of 3 (offense was ranked 2, too)

04-05 - 27-6; ACCT champs; Sweet 16; Kenpom defense rank of 2

05-06 - 32-4; ACC regular season champs; ACCT champs; Sweet 16; Kenpom defense rank of 16 (offense was ranked 1, too)

06-07 - 22-11; NCAAT round of 64; Kenpom defense rank of 6 (offense was historically bad for Duke at 44)

07-08 - 28-7; NCAAT round of 32; Kenpom defense rank of 7

08-09 - 30-7; ACCT champs; Sweet 16; Kenpom defense rank of 28 (offense was ranked 7)

09-10 - 35-5; ACC regular season co-champs; ACCT champs; National Champions; Kenpom defense rank of 5 (offense was ranked 1)

10-11 - 32-5; ACCT champs; Sweet 16; Kenpom defense rank of 9 (offense was ranked 5)

11-12 - 27-7; NCAAT round of 64; Kenpom defense rank of 79 (offense was ranked 8)

12-13 - 30-6; Elite 8; Kenpom defense rank of 26 (offense was ranked 4)

13-14 - 26-9; NCAAT round of 64; Kenpom defense was ranked 86 (offense was ranked 1)

14-15 - 35-4; National Champions; Kenpom defense rank of 11 (offense was ranked 3)

15-16 - 25-11; Sweet 16; Kenpom defense rank of 86 (offense was 4)

16-17 - 28-9; ACCT champs; NCAAT round of 32; Kenpom defense rank of 47 (offense was ranked 6)

17-18 - 29-8; Elite 8; Kenpom defense rank of 9 (offense was ranked 3)

18-19 - 32-6; ACCT champs; Elite 8; Kenpom defense rank of 6 (offense was ranked 7)

19-20 - 25-6; COVID; Kenpom defense rank of 9 (offense was ranked 9)

20-21 - 13-11; Kenpom defense rank of 79 (offense was ranked 18)

21-22 - 14-3; Kenpom defense rank of 22 (offense is 9)

Since 01-02, there have only been 7 worse defenses for Duke on Kenpom. This defense isn’t excellent yet. It may never be. I hope it is.

Yes, but 6 of those (7 including this year) have come in the OAD era.

The OAD era produces great offensive teams (with consistency, last year withstanding) and highly variable defensive teams. This year, it's the same. Offense is really good (and we'll be top 5 by years end) and defense is a work in progress.

[Phredd3]

Some of Duke’s most successful teams in recent memory had great defenses on Kenpom. Duke does not have a great defense this season on Kenpom. They’re good but not great.

Kenpom defensive stats implicitly include defensive rebounding as a component, correct, since an offensive rebound does not end a possession?

[CameronDuke]

Yes, but 6 of those (7 including this year) have come in the OAD era.

The OAD era produces great offensive teams (with consistency, last year withstanding) and highly variable defensive teams. This year, it's the same. Offense is really good (and we'll be top 5 by years end) and defense is a work in progress.

So to alter this, potentially alter/tinker the recruiting model? Emphasize less one and dones? I think you may be implying that veteran groups will have more consistent defenses. Can veteran groups not be great offensively, too?

I seem to remember a few 4-year guys who were pretty good at offense with their jerseys hanging in the rafters now.

[flyingdutchdevil]

So to alter this, potentially alter/tinker the recruiting model? Emphasize less one and dones? I think you may be implying that veteran groups will have more consistent defenses. Can veteran groups not be great offensively, too?

I seem to remember a few 4-year guys who were pretty good at offense with their jerseys hanging in the rafters now.

Not sure how long you've been at DBR, but this is arguably the ongoing debate. Some folks will reference stats, some will reference 'the good ole days', some will state how kids these days don't value an education.

Regardless, may be best to have this discussion in the offseason...

[CameronDuke]

Not sure how long you've been at DBR, but this is arguably the ongoing debate. Some folks will reference stats, some will reference 'the good ole days', some will state how kids these days don't value an education.

Regardless, may be best to have this discussion in the offseason...

Yeah, I’ve been formally since November 2009 (I think others can see that in the top right corner of my profile when I post), and read DBR much longer before that.

Put me in the camp that really gets my gears grinded by excuses blaming youth, discontinuity together as a team, inexperience, physical immaturity, and the like for why Duke can’t defend or do things we have seen veteran teams do. Sure the college basketball landscape has changed, but more balance would be nice. And if you do turn into an NBA prospect factory like Duke largely has, own it. We don’t want to hear anything about the aforementioned excuses - we get it, the guys are mainly one or two and dones now.

[uh_no]

The OAD recruiting has cost us PG maturity and that’s not changing in the foreseeable future.

the Jones brothers say hi, both of whom were exceptionally mature as freshmen. it's not necessarily a oad problem.

[DevilInTheDetails]

Been a D1, all conference athlete in another sport and not an expert in anything. However, in this lay person's observation of Duke Basketball over 35 years, does anyone recall when Duke was a dominating or opponent-equaling rebounding force? Which year and which game what that? It seems when we take a shot, we expect it to be successful and everyone is already heading down court. Wow. I know some other teams, the Cheaters, the Calipari's, and about 200 other teams seem to have a different approach, with much less talent. Not one shot, nor one play, is responsible for an eventual game outcome where the ball can take different trajectories. This, I thought, was a game of the whole body of work and when some parts of the body are dislocated, well, the outcome is unpredictable, some wins, some losses, and lots of inconsistency.

[heyman25]

Oh now that I completely agree with. Expectations went from "hopefully better than Steward" to "oh man this guy might be a lottery pick". In reality, "better than Steward" was probably the right level of expectation after all.

Hopefully the shot starts to improve. But right now, I agree, the results have definitely fallen short of expectation there. He's overachieved in nearly every other aspect (ballhandling, passing, defense), but his shooting has been a much bigger problem than expected.

Many of Keels shots have no arc. Not all of them,but he is very inconsistent in his shooting accuracy. Our backcourt needs to sharpen their decisions passing and driving into the paint.

[DoubleBlue]

Been a D1, all conference athlete in another sport and not an expert in anything. However, in this lay person's observation of Duke Basketball over 35 years, does anyone recall when Duke was a dominating or opponent-equaling rebounding force? Which year and which game what that? It seems when we take a shot, we expect it to be successful and everyone is already heading down court. Wow. I know some other teams, the Cheaters, the Calipari's, and about 200 other teams seem to have a different approach, with much less talent. Not one shot, nor one play, is responsible for an eventual game outcome where the ball can take different trajectories. This, I thought, was a game of the whole body of work and when some parts of the body are dislocated, well, the outcome is unpredictable, some wins, some losses, and lots of inconsistency.

Could it be somewhat a function of Coach K's preference for man-to-man defense? Last night when Duke (uncharacteristically) switched to a zone, defensive rebounding was so much better?

[CDu]

Could it be somewhat a function of Coach K's preference for man-to-man defense? Last night when Duke (uncharacteristically) switched to a zone, defensive rebounding was so much better?

I think it's more to do with extended pressure man defense. Because in theory a 2-3 zone defense weakens defensive rebounding (as you don't have a clear assignment).

Duke has largely valued taking away the 3pt shot. The upside of that is fewer 3pt shots made (duh, but important). The downside of that is you tend to not be as good a defensive rebounding team. The teams that are typically really good defensive rebounding teams generally also give up more 3s, and vice versa. Some teams defy that logic (UVa in its heyday was elite at both). But generally if you are aggressive defending the perimeter you tend to give up advantage inside, and if you are aggressive at defensive rebounding it tends to mean you've packed it in (which leaves the 3pt line open).

[arnie]

the Jones brothers say hi, both of whom were exceptionally mature as freshmen. it's not necessarily a oad problem.

Agree the Jones bros were and are incredible. But overall, we’re not seeing the annual maturation of the Quinn’s (Snyder/Cook) or many others we saw mature to very good guards in the past. And of course we lost a guy to Oklahoma this season that I think would have helped a lot. Don’t know if he leaves if we’re not bringing in another 5-star guard.

[Kedsy]

In my opinion Duke has not been able to land the best guards and in particular the best point guards in the land. ... In 2010 Duke had Jon Scheyer(PG) ... In 2015 Duke had Tyus Jones who was maybe the best or maybe the most productive freshman point guard Duke has had.

Jon Scheyer was not a "true" PG. Had the 2010 team lost to Baylor in the Elite Eight, I'm sure you would have put that team in your paragraph listing teams that failed because they didn't have a good enough PG. That said, his PG stats were certainly very good, proving (in my mind) that you don't have to be a true PG to run a championship team. Wendell Moore's PG stats have also been very good this season. He's in a bit of a rut the past four games, but his overall numbers are comparable to both Scheyer and Tyus Jones.

Player		Assist%	TO%	TS%	eFG%
Scheyer		25.8%	9.3%	57.2%	50.3%
Ty Jones	27.5%	15.9%	57.5%	48.9%
Moore		24.0%	15.8%	64.1%	62.2%

It's true that Scheyer's turnovers were lower than Moore's, but Wendell's turnover stats have been inflated by his recent four game stretch of 16 assists to 14 turnovers. But if we want to judge players by their worst four games, Jon Scheyer had a four game stretch from 1/17/10 to 1/27/10 in which he had 16 assists to 12 turnovers, and Tyus Jones had a four game stretch from 2/18/15 to 2/28/15 in which he had 18 turnovers (though in his case he had 32 assists in those four games). Tyus also had a five game stretch from 12/31 to 1/13 in which he averaged 5.2 ppg and had a lot of DBR posters calling for him to be benched after two consecutive double-digit losses @NCSU and at home to Miami. So let's not judge Wendell by four games out of his total season resume.

I can almost guarantee that if Duke makes the Final Four this year, DBR historians will be listing Wendell Moore as one of the point guards that "prove" Duke can only make the Final Four with great point guards.

14-15 - 35-4; National Champions; Kenpom defense rank of 11 (offense was ranked 3)

It's perhaps not fair to compare a January rating for a young team with an end-of-season rating from a past team. The championship team, for example, was notably worse defensively at this point in that season than this current Duke team is. I believe they were in the 40s in January. They really turned it on in the second half.

Now, there's no way to know if this team will go on a tear defensively as well. But the 2014-15 team is an example of the challenge of comparing midseason with end-season ratings - especially with a young team that is still learning.

Duke's defense was rated #57 by KenPom on February 14. In fact, Duke's defense was rated #57 by KenPom going into the NCAA tournament. When KenPom changed his rating formula, Duke's defense retroactively "improved" to #37 going into the tournament. We ended up #11 after winning the national championship.

Some of Duke’s most successful teams in recent memory had great defenses on Kenpom. Duke does not have a great defense this season on Kenpom. They’re good but not great.

* * *

Since 01-02, there have only been 7 worse defenses for Duke on Kenpom. This defense isn’t excellent yet. It may never be. I hope it is.

Yes, but 6 of those (7 including this year) have come in the OAD era.

Are we blaming the "era" now? Duke's 2012, 2013, and 2014 teams were veteran dominated teams that each only had one freshman in the rotation.

Duke is currently #22 in KenPom's defensive rankings, though before the Covid pause we were much better. So far, 41.8% of the team's minutes have been played by freshmen.

Since Pomeroy started crunching numbers in 2001-02, Duke has had eight teams before this year's team with more than 35.0% of the team's minutes played by freshmen:

2018	67.5%	8	9
2019	61.0%	8	6
2015	50.0%	1	11
2021	49.4%	n/a	79
2016	46.8%	16	86
2020	44.5%	n/a	12
2003	37.3%	16	15
2007	36.5%	64	6

Six of those eight teams had top 15 defenses.

In the same time period, we've had four non-freshman dominated teams with worse defenses than this year's team:

2012	23.8%	64	79
2013	23.6%	8	26
2014	19.8%	64	86
2009	10.5%	16	28

The 2017 team (#47 defense) was sort of a hybrid: 33.5% of the team's minutes were played by freshmen, but the team had only one regular freshman starter (along with a sophomore, a junior, a senior, and a grad-senior). But with all that experience in the starting lineup, it's hard to blame that team's mediocre D on one-and-dones.

So freshmen/OADs are clearly not a common factor for poor Duke defensive teams. What our poor defensive teams do have in common is one or more terrible defenders in prominent roles:

2021: Matthew Hurt (and to a lesser extent DJ Steward);
2017: Luke Kennard (and Grayson Allen was a mediocre defender at best);
2016: Luke Kennard (and Grayson Allen was a mediocre defender at best);
2014: Jabari Parker (and Andre Dawkins; Quinn Cook was a fairly poor defender that year as well, though fortunately he improved the following season);
2012: Austin Rivers (and Andre Dawkins);

This year's team doesn't have any terrible defenders in prominent roles, so I expect our final defensive numbers to end up at least top 15 (like the vast majority of our other freshmen-oriented teams). Only time will tell, I guess.

Been a D1, all conference athlete in another sport and not an expert in anything. However, in this lay person's observation of Duke Basketball over 35 years, does anyone recall when Duke was a dominating or opponent-equaling rebounding force? Which year and which game what that? It seems when we take a shot, we expect it to be successful and everyone is already heading down court. Wow. I know some other teams, the Cheaters, the Calipari's, and about 200 other teams seem to have a different approach, with much less talent. Not one shot, nor one play, is responsible for an eventual game outcome where the ball can take different trajectories. This, I thought, was a game of the whole body of work and when some parts of the body are dislocated, well, the outcome is unpredictable, some wins, some losses, and lots of inconsistency.

You're right that Coach K's Duke teams have never been great defensive rebounding teams. But your conclusion is ridiculous. "Duke Basketball over 35 years" has been the most predictable, most consistently excellent program in all college basketball during that 35-year time period (or pretty much any other time period you want to carve up during Coach K's tenure here), with more wins and fewer losses than probably any other team in the nation.