Page 4 of 6 FirstFirst ... 23456 LastLast
Results 61 to 80 of 110
  1. #61
    Join Date
    Jan 2009
    Location
    Boston, MA
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    Much like the Keels vs Roach discussion, I'm not sure that was ever a realistic option, either.
    A man can dream, right?
    Criticism may not be agreeable, but it is necessary. It fulfils the same function as pain in the human body. It calls attention to an unhealthy state of things. - Winston Churchill

    President of the "Nolan Smith Should Have His Jersey in The Rafters" Club

  2. #62
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by flyingdutchdevil View Post
    A man can dream, right?
    Sure - just like I was saying it'd have been nice to have Goldwire as the 7th/8th man behind Keels and Roach. It just wasn't ever a realistic scenario.

  3. #63
    Join Date
    Jun 2008
    Location
    Winston Salem, NC
    [QUOTE=Kedsy;1439593]Jon Scheyer was not a "true" PG. Had the 2010 team lost to Baylor in the Elite Eight, I'm sure you would have put that team in your paragraph listing teams that failed because they didn't have a good enough PG. That said, his PG stats were certainly very good, proving (in my mind) that you don't have to be a true PG to run a championship team. Wendell Moore's PG stats have also been very good this season. He's in a bit of a rut the past four games, but his overall numbers are comparable to both Scheyer and Tyus Jones.

    Code:
    Player		Assist%	TO%	TS%	eFG%
    Scheyer		25.8%	9.3%	57.2%	50.3%
    Ty Jones	27.5%	15.9%	57.5%	48.9%
    Moore		24.0%	15.8%	64.1%	62.2%
    {/QUOTE}
    It's true that Scheyer's turnovers were lower than Moore's, but Wendell's turnover stats have been inflated by his recent four game stretch of 16 assists to 14 turnovers. But if we want to judge players by their worst four games, Jon Scheyer had a four game stretch from 1/17/10 to 1/27/10 in which he had 16 assists to 12 turnovers, and Tyus Jones had a four game stretch from 2/18/15 to 2/28/15 in which he had 18 turnovers (though in his case he had 32 assists in those four games). Tyus also had a five game stretch from 12/31 to 1/13 in which he averaged 5.2 ppg and had a lot of DBR posters calling for him to be benched after two consecutive double-digit losses @NCSU and at home to Miami. So let's not judge Wendell by four games out of his total season resume.

    I can almost guarantee that if Duke makes the Final Four this year, DBR historians will be listing Wendell Moore as one of the point guards that "prove" Duke can only make the Final Four with great point guards.

    I agree 100% Jon Scheyer was not the typical point guard. Coach K made him the point guard to steady our offense with someone that would take care of the basketball and he excelled in doing that. It helped that Quinn Cook had a terrific senior season when he was fully heathy from his high school knee injuries. I see the 2010 champs sort of like I do the 2015 champs. In 2010 Coach K used Scheyer as his point guard, Quinn was finally heathy and Zoubs turned it on down the stretch. In 2015 Coach K went to a zone defense late in the season that improved our defensive play. But we didn't abandon man2man. In the meantime it seemed Oakafor had a light come on for him on defense as well. He became an adequate defender, whereas he was a terrible defender for most of the season.

    As for Wendell Moore, I really thought he had turned the corner with his ball handling. He began the season playing like an All-American but since the Covid-pause, he's reverted back to his first two seasons. I really believe the virus hit him hard and he's not recovered. Before the pause, he was quicker, bouncer, looked really strong and had loads of confidence. Wendell has always been a good rebounder for a wing player, but he's not been consistent since he got sick. I'm hoping he gets his strength and confidence back soon. To be a Final Four Team, we need him to play like he did at the first of the season.

  4. #64
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by jv001 View Post
    I agree 100% Jon Scheyer was not the typical point guard. Coach K made him the point guard to steady our offense with someone that would take care of the basketball and he excelled in doing that. It helped that Quinn Cook had a terrific senior season when he was fully heathy from his high school knee injuries. I see the 2010 champs sort of like I do the 2015 champs. In 2010 Coach K used Scheyer as his point guard, Quinn was finally heathy and Zoubs turned in on down the stretch. In 2015 Coach K went to a zone defense late in the season that improved our defensive play. In the meantime it seemed Oakafor had a light come on for him on defense as well. He became an adequate defender, whereas he was a terrible defender for most of the season.
    Cook was a senior on the 2015 team, not the 2010 team. He was the SG on that team with Tyus Jones as the PG.

  5. #65
    Join Date
    Jun 2008
    Location
    Winston Salem, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    Cook was a senior on the 2015 team, not the 2010 team. He was the SG on that team with Tyus Jones as the PG.
    Man, I've gone nuts, I know Jon''s running mate was Nolan Smith and Cook was the 2G along side Tyus at point. Still similar circumstances. Jon was not the typical point guard but had help. Tyus was a freshman and had help from Quinn.

  6. #66
    Quote Originally Posted by jv001 View Post
    Wendell has always been a good rebounder for a wing player, but he's not been consistent since he got sick.
    Actually, discounting his first game back after the Covid pause (in which he was clearly off), Wendell's rebounding has been pretty consistent (and consistently good, for a wing/guard).

    Again, discounting the GaTech game, Wendell has been good at most things. In our four most recent games, he's averaged 12 ppg, 6 rpg, 4apg, and 1.3 spg on 60% shooting (43% from three). It's really only his turnovers (3.5 tpg) that have been bad during that stretch. And he's attempting fewer shots, so he's not scoring as much as he had been.

    Obviously, if he continues turning the ball over at the rate of the past four games, it's a problem. But I really think people are overreacting to a few sloppy games.

  7. #67
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Location
    Durham
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    According to KenPom our defense is better than Oklahoma's. Torvik says their D is better than ours, but before our last two games even he said Duke's defense was better.

    Personally, I think Keels's defense is as good or better than Goldwire's. And that's saying something, since Goldwire is a very good defender.
    The weird thing is, I don't think on the whole, our "pure" defense is all that bad. The miami game, even if it isn't just covid related, is somewhat of an outlier. Mark's presence in the paint mitigates some of the lack of perimeter effectiveness, and as others have pointed out, when you adjust for the rebounding, the actual, shall we say, defense per FGA is not all that awful (Does anyone track points per FGA?).

    Of course, however, if I had wheels I'd be a wagon, and what-not. I think my point is to highlight that the defensive issues plaguing this team are somewhat unique in this era...and much of that is because we have a backstop the likes of which we haven't seen in a long time, and that gives us more flexibility in the looks we can show at the perimeter.

    The lack of rebounding is related, no doubt, to that style of defense, but I don't, as others agree, believe it is wholly correlated. I believe we can do a somewhat better job while still getting the great wall of williams, and I hope that the events of last night might be a kick in the pants to some of these guys to actually do it.
    1200. DDMF.

  8. #68
    Join Date
    Feb 2018
    Location
    Dur'm
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    Code:
    Player		Assist%	TO%	TS%	eFG%
    Scheyer		25.8%	9.3%	57.2%	50.3%
    Ty Jones	27.5%	15.9%	57.5%	48.9%
    Moore		24.0%	15.8%	64.1%	62.2%
    It's true that Scheyer's turnovers were lower than Moore's, but Wendell's turnover stats have been inflated by his recent four game stretch of 16 assists to 14 turnovers. But if we want to judge players by their worst four games, Jon Scheyer had a four game stretch from 1/17/10 to 1/27/10 in which he had 16 assists to 12 turnovers, and Tyus Jones had a four game stretch from 2/18/15 to 2/28/15 in which he had 18 turnovers (though in his case he had 32 assists in those four games). Tyus also had a five game stretch from 12/31 to 1/13 in which he averaged 5.2 ppg and had a lot of DBR posters calling for him to be benched after two consecutive double-digit losses @NCSU and at home to Miami. So let's not judge Wendell by four games out of his total season resume.

    I can almost guarantee that if Duke makes the Final Four this year, DBR historians will be listing Wendell Moore as one of the point guards that "prove" Duke can only make the Final Four with great point guards.
    I'm going to pick on this a bit, because it is a style of argument that gets used here and elsewhere fairly frequently, and it's problematic, at best. The bold part is essentially saying that the statistics show Moore has more turnovers than Scheyer, but please ignore man behind the curtain. Except there is no man behind the curtain - those are just numbers that don't happen to agree with the point you are trying to make. If we are trying to compare two players, we can't just throw out a random portion of the data any more than we get to throw the two losses that we suffered in this latest four-game stretch.

    As for the four-game stretch, nobody but you is making or has ever made that argument. Looking at those numbers, nobody is judging either Scheyer or Moore on their worst four games. We are judging them on their body of work, and that body of work says that Moore turns the ball over more than Scheyer did. It's just a fact. It may change as the season progresses, but for now, that's the information we have to go on. Removing data because you don't like it reduces the predictive value of the data, rather than increasing it, as you implicitly are suggesting.

    As for your guarantee, well, if Moore improves his stats to the point where he is, in fact, an elite point guard, and the team actually does make the Final Four with his eliteness on display, I reserve the right to shout his praises as a great point guard who was essential to making that run happen. In fact, I'd love to be the first to actually proclaim as much. So in that sense, yeah, your hypothetical seems not out of the question. But even though you make it sound like a bad thing, in fact, it strikes me as a highly desirable outcome, albeit an outcome that is probably less likely than it would have seemed four games ago.

  9. #69
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Location
    Durham
    Quote Originally Posted by Phredd3 View Post
    I'm going to pick on this a bit, because it is a style of argument that gets used here and elsewhere fairly frequently, and it's problematic, at best. The bold part is essentially saying that the statistics show Moore has more turnovers than Scheyer, but please ignore man behind the curtain. Except there is no man behind the curtain - those are just numbers that don't happen to agree with the point you are trying to make. If we are trying to compare two players, we can't just throw out a random portion of the data any more than we get to throw the two losses that we suffered in this latest four-game stretch.

    As for the four-game stretch, nobody but you is making or has ever made that argument. Looking at those numbers, nobody is judging either Scheyer or Moore on their worst four games. We are judging them on their body of work, and that body of work says that Moore turns the ball over more than Scheyer did. It's just a fact. It may change as the season progresses, but for now, that's the information we have to go on. Removing data because you don't like it reduces the predictive value of the data, rather than increasing it, as you implicitly are suggesting.

    As for your guarantee, well, if Moore improves his stats to the point where he is, in fact, an elite point guard, and the team actually does make the Final Four with his eliteness on display, I reserve the right to shout his praises as a great point guard who was essential to making that run happen. In fact, I'd love to be the first to actually proclaim as much. So in that sense, yeah, your hypothetical seems not out of the question. But even though you make it sound like a bad thing, in fact, it strikes me as a highly desirable outcome, albeit an outcome that is probably less likely than it would have seemed four games ago.
    Outliers are a real thing in statistics, and so long as you define them before hand in a sensible way, and not so as to fit the data, they are acceptable.

    That said, the whole point of statistics is to paint a narrative, and Kedsy's narrative is that Moore can and has played well, and now he is not playing well. We don't have enough data points to know if it is regression to the mean, or some other impact, but slicing up data gives you possibilities, not certainties.
    1200. DDMF.

  10. #70
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    It's really only his turnovers (3.5 tpg) that have been bad during that stretch. And he's attempting fewer shots, so he's not scoring as much as he had been.

    Obviously, if he continues turning the ball over at the rate of the past four games, it's a problem. But I really think people are overreacting to a few sloppy games.
    I'm not sure we can/should really say it's just a few sloppy games. He's had 9 games against Power-6 teams and Gonzaga. In those 9 games, he has 27 turnovers. In only two of those 9 games has he had less than 3 turnovers, and he's had more games with more than 3 turnovers (3) than he has had with less than 3 turnovers (2). So while I'd love for it to just be "a few sloppy games," I am now wondering if that's the right way to be looking at it. It may just be that he's still a fairly turnover-prone player. Really, it seems like the norm for him is a high turnover rate.

    For comparison, he has averaged 4 assists per game in those 9 games. So his assist/turnover ratio in games against decent/good teams is 1.33. And it has been 1.33 or less in 6 of the 9 games we've played this year, with just 2 games with an A/TO ratio of better than 2. So, honestly, "good PG" play by Moore has been the outlier against good teams.

    Now, does that mean he isn't a valuable player? No. He usually takes the toughest defensive assignment. His shooting and scoring efficiency has mostly been good except for the first week of 2022. And he's a solid rebounder. But it does raise the question of whether or not it makes sense for him to be the PG and primary playmaker moving forward. I am becoming skeptical myself, something I might not have said a week or so ago, but now the evidence is mounting that "the norm" is not a good PG.

  11. #71
    Join Date
    Feb 2018
    Location
    Dur'm
    Quote Originally Posted by uh_no View Post
    Outliers are a real thing in statistics, and so long as you define them before hand in a sensible way, and not so as to fit the data, they are acceptable.

    That said, the whole point of statistics is to paint a narrative, and Kedsy's narrative is that Moore can and has played well, and now he is not playing well. We don't have enough data points to know if it is regression to the mean, or some other impact, but slicing up data gives you possibilities, not certainties.
    I have no problem with tossing out a single outlier or maybe even two, if there is a good a priori reason for doing so. But that's not what he did here. I don't think tossing out this latest four-game stretch makes much sense, and it makes even less sense to compare it to random "worst four games" from other players. Equating Moore with Scheyer is a fool's errand, and the attempt was misguided, IMO.

    Having said that, I'm probably being overly harsh. I just think it is important to establish WHY one is working with a partial data set before rushing to conclusions based on the partial data, particularly when trying to make predictions about future performance. I don't think the foundation was adequately laid here, and it's an argument style that seems to creep in from time to time. But I very much appreciate Kedsy's posts, in general, and I didn't make that nearly clear enough.

  12. #72
    Join Date
    Jun 2008
    Location
    Winston Salem, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by uh_no View Post
    Outliers are a real thing in statistics, and so long as you define them before hand in a sensible way, and not so as to fit the data, they are acceptable.

    That said, the whole point of statistics is to paint a narrative, and Kedsy's narrative is that Moore can and has played well, and now he is not playing well. We don't have enough data points to know if it is regression to the mean, or some other impact, but slicing up data gives you possibilities, not certainties.
    I'm really rooting for Wendell to return to his good ball handling habits. The one where he was one of the leading assist to turnover players in the ACC. This young team needs his leadership because it's evident the young guys look up to him as a steadying influence. They can see when he's sometimes frustrated with his own play. We really have some pretty good ball handlers in Roach, Banchero, Moore, Keels and AJ. That's why I'm surprised by our turnovers lately. I guess it's a matter of losing focus.

    GoDuke!

  13. #73
    Forgive me if someone else has discussed it, but this team seems particularly bad at end-of-game or end-of-half situations. In last night's game, we had the ball at the end of the first half with twenty seconds left and ended up turning it over. Moore had a chance to win the game at the buzzer in overtime, but missed the shot. Against Miami, we also had the ball with a chance to tie or win and Keels ended up settling for a long three. I would have to lookup specific examples from other games, but my memory is that we failed to score on many similar situations at the end of the half. That seems to be a real problem in close games.

  14. #74
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by SlapTheFloor View Post
    Forgive me if someone else has discussed it, but this team seems particularly bad at end-of-game or end-of-half situations. In last night's game, we had the ball at the end of the first half with twenty seconds left and ended up turning it over. Moore had a chance to win the game at the buzzer in overtime, but missed the shot. Against Miami, we also had the ball with a chance to tie or win and Keels ended up settling for a long three. I would have to lookup specific examples from other games, but my memory is that we failed to score on many similar situations at the end of the half. That seems to be a real problem in close games.
    In the 9 games against decent/good teams this year, we've scored on our last possession of the half just twice: a 3 by Baker against OSU, and a 3 by Griffin against Wake. Otherwise, ofer. In the end of the second half or OT of close games, we scored on our last real possession against FSU (Williams dunk; I don't count the full-court pass with a second left), but failed to score on either of the last two trips against Miami and the last trip in OT against FSU.

    I'm not sure if that's a sufficient sample size to raise alarm, but the theme I saw between the Miami and FSU misses was that we didn't have (or in the FSU game, didn't choose to use) a timeout. So the attempts were sort of off-script.

    In general, I don't know that we've had that many bad possessions in those situations. In the Miami game, I would have rather gotten the ball to Banchero. But Moore's and Keels' 3s were open looks, and Keels got nicely into the lane on his 10-footer. He just didn't finish strong. The FSU end of half and end of OT were largely miscommunications, where Banchero either declined to receive the initial pass (from Moore in OT) or got it but passed it away (to Keels, who took a 3 with the clock winding down).

  15. #75
    Quote Originally Posted by Phredd3 View Post
    I'm going to pick on this a bit, because it is a style of argument that gets used here and elsewhere fairly frequently, and it's problematic, at best. The bold part is essentially saying that the statistics show Moore has more turnovers than Scheyer, but please ignore man behind the curtain. Except there is no man behind the curtain - those are just numbers that don't happen to agree with the point you are trying to make. If we are trying to compare two players, we can't just throw out a random portion of the data any more than we get to throw the two losses that we suffered in this latest four-game stretch.

    As for the four-game stretch, nobody but you is making or has ever made that argument. Looking at those numbers, nobody is judging either Scheyer or Moore on their worst four games. We are judging them on their body of work, and that body of work says that Moore turns the ball over more than Scheyer did. It's just a fact. It may change as the season progresses, but for now, that's the information we have to go on. Removing data because you don't like it reduces the predictive value of the data, rather than increasing it, as you implicitly are suggesting.
    Well, (a) Moore's turnover% was around 10% before the Covid pause (very similar to Scheyer's season-long numbers in 2010), which is why I think judging him immediately after his worst four game stretch (and immediately after he was sick) may not be a fair comparison; and (b) I don't know what Scheyer's season-to-date turnover% was immediately after his bad four game stretch in 2010. The data in the chart includes more than two months of games for Scheyer after his bad stretch and Wendell hasn't had that opportunity. So you're not really comparing the two players on their body of work.

    As for saying the PG comparison is a "fool's errand," I disagree. Moore's turnovers are not particularly high for a PG (in fact are almost exactly the same as Tyus Jones's were in 2014-15), his scoring and assist percentage are about the same as Scheyer's (though again, before the Covid pause Wendell was better), but Moore is doing pretty much everything else (e.g., rebounding, shooting, defense) better than Scheyer did in 2009-10. In a comparison of their overall games, including defense, I'm not sure which was better, so why is it a fool's errand?

    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    I'm not sure we can/should really say it's just a few sloppy games. He's had 9 games against Power-6 teams and Gonzaga. In those 9 games, he has 27 turnovers. In only two of those 9 games has he had less than 3 turnovers, and he's had more games with more than 3 turnovers (3) than he has had with less than 3 turnovers (2). So while I'd love for it to just be "a few sloppy games," I am now wondering if that's the right way to be looking at it. It may just be that he's still a fairly turnover-prone player. Really, it seems like the norm for him is a high turnover rate.

    For comparison, he has averaged 4 assists per game in those 9 games. So his assist/turnover ratio in games against decent/good teams is 1.33. And it has been 1.33 or less in 6 of the 9 games we've played this year, with just 2 games with an A/TO ratio of better than 2. So, honestly, "good PG" play by Moore has been the outlier against good teams.

    Now, does that mean he isn't a valuable player? No. He usually takes the toughest defensive assignment. His shooting and scoring efficiency has mostly been good except for the first week of 2022. And he's a solid rebounder. But it does raise the question of whether or not it makes sense for him to be the PG and primary playmaker moving forward. I am becoming skeptical myself, something I might not have said a week or so ago, but now the evidence is mounting that "the norm" is not a good PG.
    That's interesting, I had never broken it down that way and you might be right. If Wendell continues to cough up the ball at a high rate when he plays against good teams, then I may be off base in saying he's a good PG. We'll have to see, I guess. But I'm certainly not in favor of handing the reins over to Jeremy Roach, who has had two really good games in a row but for the season turns it over approximately the same amount as Wendell but assists a lot less. At least not until a lot more data is in.

    Quote Originally Posted by Phredd3 View Post
    Looking at those numbers, nobody is judging either Scheyer or Moore on their worst four games.
    Actually, that was my entire point. Everyone is judging Moore on his last four games. Two weeks ago, would anybody on this site have said that Wendell Moore was an inadequate point guard?
    Last edited by Kedsy; 01-19-2022 at 06:02 PM.

  16. #76
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    In the 9 games against decent/good teams this year, we've scored on our last possession of the half just twice: a 3 by Baker against OSU, and a 3 by Griffin against Wake. Otherwise, ofer. In the end of the second half or OT of close games, we scored on our last real possession against FSU (Williams dunk; I don't count the full-court pass with a second left), but failed to score on either of the last two trips against Miami and the last trip in OT against FSU.

    I'm not sure if that's a sufficient sample size to raise alarm, but the theme I saw between the Miami and FSU misses was that we didn't have (or in the FSU game, didn't choose to use) a timeout. So the attempts were sort of off-script.

    In general, I don't know that we've had that many bad possessions in those situations. In the Miami game, I would have rather gotten the ball to Banchero. But Moore's and Keels' 3s were open looks, and Keels got nicely into the lane on his 10-footer. He just didn't finish strong. The FSU end of half and end of OT were largely miscommunications, where Banchero either declined to receive the initial pass (from Moore in OT) or got it but passed it away (to Keels, who took a 3 with the clock winding down).
    Nice analysis. Thank you. I'm actually ok with Moore's shot at the end of OT. It seemed like a decent look and one that he's capable of hitting. And he's obviously hit a game winner before.

  17. #77
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    Sure - just like I was saying it'd have been nice to have Goldwire as the 7th/8th man behind Keels and Roach. It just wasn't ever a realistic scenario.
    Great point … Goldwire = break glass in case of emergency

  18. #78
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Location
    Durham
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    In the 9 games against decent/good teams this year, we've scored on our last possession of the half just twice: a 3 by Baker against OSU, and a 3 by Griffin against Wake. Otherwise, ofer. In the end of the second half or OT of close games, we scored on our last real possession against FSU (Williams dunk; I don't count the full-court pass with a second left), but failed to score on either of the last two trips against Miami and the last trip in OT against FSU.

    I'm not sure if that's a sufficient sample size to raise alarm, but the theme I saw between the Miami and FSU misses was that we didn't have (or in the FSU game, didn't choose to use) a timeout. So the attempts were sort of off-script.

    In general, I don't know that we've had that many bad possessions in those situations. In the Miami game, I would have rather gotten the ball to Banchero. But Moore's and Keels' 3s were open looks, and Keels got nicely into the lane on his 10-footer. He just didn't finish strong. The FSU end of half and end of OT were largely miscommunications, where Banchero either declined to receive the initial pass (from Moore in OT) or got it but passed it away (to Keels, who took a 3 with the clock winding down).
    In general, some of the issues with end of clock possessions is that you try to do something specific rather than run offense. This often leads to the most effective late-game play: "dribble-dribble-dribble-jack-a-3"

    If you commit to something, and the defense knows you've committed to something, you're already at a disadvantage, so the "Banchero must take the shot" is not a great look if the opponent is triple teaming Paolo knowing you're looking to get him the ball come hell or high water. A perfect case study is the ending of the FSU game last year. Everyone "knew" we were going to zion or RJ inside, but that left Cam wide open for the game winning tre.

    That doesn't mean it never works...like if you're Kemba Walker, or Tre Jones gone Super Saiyan, just that it's not always better than running offense.

    Anyway, I'm not saying the possessions we had were good, but that I think it's more important to run ANY offense than commit to X must get the ball and make a play.


    That's not the only concern with late game possessions. The pressure to not shoot TOO soon is often problematic. College kids just aren't experienced enough to know that you'll be able to find some shot in some amount of time...and the typical 10s -turned to 6 or 7s in reality- when the ball handler starts doing anything (usually sans any screen...because why run offense?), is just not enough to know you're going to get a good look. (which of course, is what precipitates the jack a 3 play above described, or it's brother, the drive into traffic with no game plan and turn it over)
    1200. DDMF.

  19. #79
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    NC
    Unfortunately, the last 2.5 weeks represent over half of his games against quality competition. So it makes sense that folks might change their minds. Especially since, in hindsight, his PG play against good teams in Nov/Dec 2021 wasn’t great.

    Heading into 2022, Moore’s PG resume against awful teams (outside the top-200) was superlative: 5 games, 28 assists, 4 turnovers. He was unbelievable. But that may have masked his play in tougher games.

    He had just 4 games against teams in the Power-6 plus Gonzaga prior to 2022. In those games, his numbers were okay but not great: 18 assists, 10 turnovers. He had 2 bad PG games (UK and VT), one decent PG game (Gonzaga), and one good PG game (OSU). So it is possible that the OSU performance is the outlier, and that against good teams he is still the shaky ballhandler/decision maker we saw last year.

    Hopefully not. But it is worth noting that he has 8 games this year with 3 or more turnovers, and 9 games with either 3+ turnovers or an A/TO of <=1.33. He has two really good PG games against good teams and 2 amazing PG games against awful teams.

    I absolutely was in the camp that he was playing great PG as of beginning of January. In looking back, I am more more suspicious that I was wrong.

    It is certainly possible that the last 2 weeks aren’t the new norm, and I do hope that is the case. But like I said (and I realize I am repeating myself unnecessarily - sorry!) I do worry that the OSU and Wake games are the outlier.

  20. #80
    A couple of points. First, for college players confidence plays a role in how they play. For some it is a big part, others not so much. At one extreme you have Bobby Hurley who had enough confidence for a whole team. At the other extreme you have some of our 3pt specialists who can go on season long slumps due to a loss of confidence.

    Why am I talking about confidence? I'm talking about it because of Moore and also the discussion of Moore vs Scheyer. This season Moore surprised everyone out of the gates with his improved play. If he took a shot it was going in, if he went for a rebound he was getting it, if he drove he was getting a good shot off, if he made a pass it was going to the right spot. On just his 2nd game of the season he gets a triple double, scoring 19 on 13 shots, grabs 10 boards and has 10 assists with only 1 turnover. Now that was against a weak Army team, but still. Out of the 12 games in Nov & Dec Kenpom had him as the MVP (of game, not just team) 4 times. So in 33% of his Nov -Dec games Moore was statistically the best player on the floor. He only had one offensively inefficient game in that 12 game stretch, our 1st game against Kentucky his OR was 99. The other 11 games he had a Ortg ranging from 107 to 167(!) and his average OR was a superb 131! What about the tough games? Vs Gonzaga it was 119, vs Ohio State 107, vs Virginia Tech 141. What about his ball handling? His a/t ratio in this stretch was a superb 2.9. That includes 2 to 1 vs Gonzaga and 5 to 1 vs Ohio State.

    Then the break and January came. His OR's this month have been 64, 90, 128, 109, 104, for an ave OR=99. So since Jan 1 his average OR is the same as his worst game OR in Nov-Dec. Of his 15 games his, the overall rank of his Jan OR's are 15th, 14th, 7th, 9th and 10th. It is normal for these unadjusted OR's to drop as the competition gets tougher but a guy averaging 131 in the preseason shouldn't drop 32 points! A guy with an OR of 119 vs Gonzaga in a neutral venue shouldn't drop to 64 at home vs 127th ranked GT. What about his ball handling? His a/t ratio was an excellent 2.9 prior to New Years, it is very poor 1.0 since Jan 1.

    Now why did Moore go from being the most consistent player on our team from Nov 9th to Dec 22, to being downright poor in 4 out of 5 games from Jan 4 to Jan 18? I don't think he lost his skills over those 2 weeks. IMO, with Moore it's always been about confidence. When he doesn't have it he is tentative with his passes, he is tentative with dribbling, he is tentative or rushes open 3's. Confident Moore reads the floor, make a plan and executes it. Non-confident Moore runs into crowds, passes up open looks, leaps in the air with the ball but no plan, and - his most identifiable trait - fumbles the ball off his knee or foot because he can't decide what to do. Confident Moore has a sweet stroke, hits nothing but net.

    Last night it was clear that Moore wasn't feeling it. Nothing was smooth, for the 2nd game in a row he had 4 turnovers, this from a player who prior to NC State hadn't had 4 turnovers once this season. When we got to the last play it looked to me that the plan was for someone to get the ball and then give it to Banchero with about 8-10 secs left. Banchero got it, gave it to Moore, waited and then made a move to get it back. But Moore hesitated (you could see the uncertainty on his face) and didn't make the pass and then Banchero was covered again. So Moore panics a bit, knowing less than 10 secs left, turns and charges into a crowd and throws up a ball that he had no confidence in (imo). I knew he was 75% to miss before he took it. Then on the rebound he looked defeated and instead of concentrating (like a Jones off the floor to the basket in 1 sec vs the Evil Empire) and trying to pick up the ball he stumbles toward it and kicks it down the floor. The defeated look on his face was there even before the kick.

    Second point. End of game situations need a calm floor leader. Which brings us to Scheyer. You can compare season stats all you want between the two players and it won't tell you the whole story. The reason Scheyer was great despite not being a natural point guard was that he was so confident coming up with the ball (never had to worry about a careless turnover) that it relaxed the whole team. He never wavered under pressure. You couldn't speed him up, even if there was only 15 secs left in a 1 point game. I still remember the NCAA's when even at the most critical times Scheyer would walk the ball up, look around surveying the floor, make his decision and then start the play. His teammates fed off that. If and when Moore plays like that (and it is in his repertoire when his confidence is there) then he can be compared to Jon. When it's not there, he doesn't need to be taking or creating the last shot. Let Banchero do that. Banchero doesnt' have to take the shot, he can drive and drop or dish. But we can't have rushed, throw something up and hope it goes in like we had with Keels leaning over too soon in clock forced 12 footer vs Miami. Nor should we have had a low confidence Moore doing it against FSU.
    Last edited by Skydog; 01-19-2022 at 08:14 PM.

Similar Threads

  1. Autopsy of a Loss: Duke vs Miami
    By CDu in forum Elizabeth King Forum
    Replies: 24
    Last Post: 01-11-2022, 07:46 PM
  2. Loss of former Duke football player/Professor Emeritus
    By aimo in forum Elizabeth King Forum
    Replies: 13
    Last Post: 10-03-2020, 10:28 AM
  3. Most PAINFUL Duke loss
    By Dopeshop in forum Elizabeth King Forum
    Replies: 133
    Last Post: 06-10-2020, 08:12 AM
  4. SFA Loss Looking Less Bad
    By hallcity in forum Elizabeth King Forum
    Replies: 44
    Last Post: 02-11-2020, 09:23 PM
  5. Duke Athletics Since the Kansas Loss
    By dubldvman in forum Elizabeth King Forum
    Replies: 1
    Last Post: 11-23-2013, 03:18 PM

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •