MBB: Duke 78, FSU 79 (OT)

[heyman25]

Everyone praising the team is losing sight of the teams we're losing to. These teams are NIT quality. We should win them going away. This team is not close to where it needs to be in potential or performance. 20 offensive rebounds is atrocious as well as the many lackadaisical turnovers. If they don't wake up this season can turn quickly in an awful conference.

I would agree with this to a degree. We are not consistent. This rebounding deficiency will get us bounced out of a tough post season tournament opponent game. Banchero should always get the last shot. Wendell Moore was not who I want taking the last shot. Brings back memory of letting RJ taking it instead of Zion against Michigan State.

[simplyluvin]

Another thing both losses have in common is that it was Banchero's guy who drove the lane to make what turned out to be the winning basket in the Miami game, and the basket that forced the overtime in this game. Driving right, shot from almost exactly the same place, in fact. It was, unfortunately, like deja vu.

I think what lost the game for us in the OT was that quick three from the left wing. AJ I guess thought that Florida St would set up its offense, but Mills had other ideas, and just caught the ball and launched it as if he was just goofing off in the gym with his buddies. No defensive pressure at all from AJ, who was about six feet away awaiting the offensive set.

The whole thing was just sad. To fight back that hard and have a real chance to win but then let it slip away...

AJ was just sitting trying to keep his space in the zone, but he should have closed on the shooter. It was a young mistake for a guy who has probably rarely even practiced zone in his life.

[Mak P]

The rebounding is frustrating. I have to mention mark and paolo name on this, mark especially. Often the ball is in his hands and he just lose it. It's frustrating, very

[KandG]

Almost managed to steal a game they had no business winning in regulation, still had a good opportunity to pull it out in overtime, but just bad decisions at the worst times at the end.

Announcers mentioned Keels’ injury forced the game-changing zone, but I thought the zone should have come sooner, Keels injury or not. Seminoles’ length and pressure and ability to administer chaos at both ends had our team reeling, the zone was necessary to halt their momentum.

To me, the key came at the end of the first half, when we had a chance to end the half on an extended run and build the lead to 7 or 8. Instead, Paolo loses track of the clock, lead stays at five, then we turn the ball over three times to start the second half and give up every offensive rebound in sight.

Only one field goal in the first 8 minutes of the second half, plus we got into the bonus with 10 minutes left in the game. Frankly, we should have been down by much more, we were forcing things way too much and playing like our talent should have been enough to overwhelm FSU the same way it did Wake and NC State.

Thought Joey and Theo gave us good minutes even if they missed makeable shots, they made small plays that kept FSU from completely running away with it.

Roach also ran the team excellently down the stretch and for most of OT, and Paolo and Mark almost stole it away for us at the end, but FSU made a great shot to take it to OT.

Thought we executed well on most of our possessions in OT but the real issue is we couldn’t defend well enough. Giving up two open threes to Mills (the second one was an especially soft close out by Griffin) and Williams giving up a layup to Cleveland off the press, plus that brutal foul by Roach in the final seconds. In general we fouled too much and played too soft for prolonged periods of the game.

Kudos to Florida State, protected their home floor and demonstrated all the grit of a Leonard Hamilton team. Tallahassee is always tough but even with the loss of Keels, fell like this was a game for the taking once we steadied our play.

[Hartford Dukie]

I think what lost the game for us in the OT was that quick three from the left wing. AJ I guess thought that Florida St would set up its offense, but Mills had other ideas, and just caught the ball and launched it as if he was just goofing off in the gym with his buddies. No defensive pressure at all from AJ, who was about six feet away awaiting the offensive set.
...

Exactly!! AJ let him shoot..in fact I think took a step back and Mills had already hit two shots in OT.

[SilkyJ]

The 2-3 zone almost won us the game. This K guy can coach.

While turnovers and offensive rebounding are the reasons we lost; K’s decision making leaves a lot to question. For starters he went to man-to-man on the last possession of regulation, and they scored (its one possession but i bring it up in light of your post).

There’s also of course his decision to not call timeout on the last possession of OT, which of course cost us the game as we didn’t get a shot up and the future #1 draft pick didn’t touch the ball. Of course K does this all the time; its his philosophy. Would love someone to show the stats on this…my intuition is that one of K’s strengths is drawing up plays so I simply don’t understand this constant stubbornness at the end of games. The last time we hit a buzzer beater at FSU was on a drawn up play…

There’s countless others:
- He’s playing Keels, a complete liability as a shooter, too many minutes. (I like his defense too, but he needs to either shoot less or play less)
- He’s not giving Griffin enough minutes (I’ve been pounding this drum, not going to stop…and yes, he reaches too much on defense, but he’s our 2nd best player on offense…he just doesn’t touch the ball enough. Needs more usage.)
- Related: He played Joey Baker for far too long in the 2nd half while keep AJ on the bench in a game where we needed size and athleticism. Joey did very little with those minutes, makes no sense. This is a coaching error.
- Paolo Banchero brought the ball multiple times, which resulted in turnovers. This has happened in multiple games. Why is he being allowed to do this? It costs us precious possessions. At the 7 min mark of the 2nd half K finally looked at the team and said “he brings the ball up” (he = Roach. So hopefully K gets it now and isn’t going to have our 250lb power forward handling for 90 feet.)
- Paolo didn’t have a shot in the first 10 mins of the 2nd half. That’s coaching. The #1 draft pick in the NBA needs to touch the ball.
- (Same for AJ griffin. We need to get him the ball more…though he is obviously lethal as a spot up/corner 3 man.)
- Wendell needs to shoot more 3s and quit passing them up (this isn’t on K, but the staff needs to encourage him to catch and shoot more often. Based on what I’m seeing I think the staff is encouraging us to drive on close-outs, which makes some sense, but Wendell is a very good 3 point shooter and is making a lot of mistakes/turnovers on drives)

Overall I see a lot of coaching errors, but the good news is that makes them fixable. You can’t fix talent, but you can fix most of what I put up there.

[fgb]

These teams are NIT quality.

This.

[FerryFor50]

Honestly, Duke had no business being in a position to win that game given how badly they'd played earlier. But it was encouraging to see them rally in spite of:

- physical play
- questionable calls/non-calls
- Keels being injured
- getting killed on the boards

The move to the zone completely flummoxed FSU for a while there and it's weird, considering they had just played Syracuse, so it should have been pretty familiar. And even more weird is that Duke actually rebounded *better* in the zone than in man. Eye test says it was just better bounces on missed shots and the zone had them in the right spot rather than constantly being out of position in man after not boxing out. But it worked.

Roach coming in and breaking down the FSU defense and finding open players was huge for the offense, as was Duke finally finding ways to get Paolo the ball. Turns out you can't feed the post when the defenders are allowed to grab and hold, so they fed Paolo on the perimeter. Wish they had gone to that sooner, because FSU had no answer until Paolo started getting tired and settling for jumpers.

Wendell had a real hot/cold game. He was very good off the ball and catching/shooting. But off the dribble/passing? Ew. Just awful Lazy passes on the wing. Driving into traffic with no plan and then jumping in the air and making a blind pass. Just a complete 180 from his early season play. Hopefully he'll turn it around because Keels will probably miss a few games. But that last shot? That couldn't have been the play call there, could it? Why not call the time out and draw something up for Paolo?

Keels' injury looked bad, but it was great to see him jogging. At first it looked like a knee thing, but when it happened, he was holding his shin. Maybe a high ankle sprain? Pulled shin muscle?

In the pre-game thread, I said the following:

I think FSU has a similar makeup, but with a bit more size. I don't expect Mark to feast against FSU like he did against State, but this will be a good test for him.

15 points, 7 boards, 3 blocks. Not an awful showing, but he had some rebounds he couldn't secure and it cost us. He got stronger with the boards down the stretch, but you could tell the size and physicality bothered him.

Without Malik Osborne, I don't think FSU has anyone to guard Banchero effectively, so it really depends on how aggressive he is at the rim and if the FSU bigs are able to protect the rim without fouling.

Surprise! Malik played. But they still couldn't stop Banchero. The plan looked like they would be as physical as possible with him in the post and it worked. He didn't get touches there very often. Did most of his work on the perimeter. Given the fact that he seemed to be tired at the end of the game, maybe K should re-think having him bringing the ball up.

Overall, if Banchero can continue to play well and Moore continues to return to his early season form, I don't think this game will be too scary. Losing Osborne is a big deal for FSU IMO, unless one of the other role players goes off. But it's definitely one FSU can win.

Banchero played well - when he got the ball - and Moore shot well, but stunk it up off the dribble. Osborne played (but not super well) and role players like Mills and Butler did indeed go off (Butler at the start, Mills at the end). Sigh.

Last two losses have been by 2 points combined. A few more made FTs, fewer turnovers, a few more defensive boards and they win those. But that's how it goes. Hopefully Keels doesn't miss too much time.

[UrinalCake]

As far as the last play, the mistake IMO was having Paolo inbounds the ball which didn't leave him enough time to get all the way down the court, get the ball back (which we know FSU is going to be doing everything they can to prevent) and then make a play. Get it in and across halfcourt quickly, then call the TO to set up a play. It's not like they can catch the defense off guard when it was after a made free throw.

Big picture we still have the potential to accomplish a lot this season, but we need to correct the turnovers and rebounding and we need to get/stay healthy. We need more offensive diversity and we need everyone to stay engaged the entire game.

[CameronDuke]

It would have been cool to win, but Duke was out played for the majority of the 2nd half by FSU. It would have been a “the band is on the field!” or Doug Flutie Hail Mary type win. Which are fun as hell for fans but it would have masked how punched in the mouth Duke was tonight in several statistical categories. FSU attempted 18 more shots than Duke. FSU grabbed 43 rebounds to Duke’s 37. FSU grabbed 19 (!) offensive rebounds to Duke’s 7. Duke turned the ball over 15 (!) times to FSU’s 5. Duke registered 2 steals to FSU’s 9. Duke shot the ball well from 3 (10-23) and were 12-16 from the line in regulation and 2-2 in OT. Had they been 13-16 from the line in regulation they would have won. Banchero had another double double with 20 and 12 but he didn’t attempt a shot in the 2nd half until about under 5 minutes left I believe. FSU did a good job denying him the ball in the post and collapsing 2-3 defenders down onto him at times. Also, why was he bringing the ball up the court so much with Wendell and Keels in the game?

I sure hope Keels doesn’t miss much time. But I would not be shocked to see him out Saturday vs Syracuse.

Duke was out toughed on the boards so many times tonight that it’s crazy they almost won this game. Getting into the zone surprisingly made Duke rebound better. FSU hit tough shot after tough shot down the stretch and in OT. Credit to them. The last possession by them, I thought Roach should have not tried to draw the charge and just play good defense by staying in front of his man with 6 seconds left on the shot clock. The last Duke possession, Banchero needs the ball. Wendell tried driving into the trees in the paint there and was stripped. Theo John, I like his attitude and effort. But he’s limited in his skill set. He missed a few close range shots tonight. But he did knock down 2 free throws, grab 3 boards, and get a good block. After getting stuffed at the rim himself.

Wendell continues to be an enigma. 4 turnovers and 2 assists. Yet 3-3 from deep and 4 rebounds. 13 points total. He was an All American and first team All ACC before the Covid pause in my book. He’s not either currently to me.

After losing to Miami, FL some posters said they bet Duke would win their first outright ACC regular season title since 2006 by 3 games over any other competition this year. I would take that bet now.

This is a good but not elite Duke team, yet. They have some serious talent and future NBA players but flaws. They’re not a good rebounding team right now. Their two captains either don’t play many minutes or are in a slump right now. I am tempering my expectations a bit after this tough January. Obviously, with all the talk about making this a special season for Coach K given it’s his last season, many of us had our eyes set on an ACC regular season title, ACCT title, 1 seed, final four, and national title. All of those are still possible, but not probable. But there’s still time to make adjustments and watch Coach K do his best to get this team firing on all cylinders.

14-3, 4-2 isn’t bad and I expect Duke will fall to 10th or 11th in the polls next week tops.

Duke dropped from 10 to 11 overall on Kenpom tonight. The offense moved from 10 to 9. The defense dropped from 19 to 22. To get where we want to be this year, I feel like the defense needs to be top 10-15 by the end of the year. 22nd just ain’t gonna cut it.

Let’s Go Duke!

[sbroc012]

The ACC is down this year according to everyone, therefore if Duke doesn't win the regular season outright with 3 maybe 4 losses then we will not be getting a top seed. And Duke is the only top seed coming out of the ACC, no one else will be in the top four probably.

[FerryFor50]

I would agree with this to a degree. We are not consistent. This rebounding deficiency will get us bounced out of a tough post season tournament opponent game. Banchero should always get the last shot. Wendell Moore was not who I want taking the last shot. Brings back memory of letting RJ taking it instead of Zion against Michigan State.

I disagree. FSU was a preseason top 25 team. They started slow, but may be rounding into form and into what everyone expected.

[Coballs]

If you have Laettner and Hurley you don't need to call a time out on the final possession. But with this unexperienced group on the road K must get them together and call the play. Unbelievable that Banchero was used as the inbounder and then didn't touch the ball again. Inexcusable really.

[proelitedota]

I'm going to get flamed for this but I think Scheyer is a better in game coach than K.

[rsvman]

I think he was kinda Forced to go zone without Keels.. As a matter of fact, it killed me that after our great run at end of regulation to get ahead by 2 we went back to M2M for the last possession... just to make sure they scored. They have the athletes to beat us off the dribble - why go M2M on that possession? STAY ZONE, it was working so well

Monday-morning quarterbacking... I'm sure the thought process was that Hamilton was drawing up a play for the zone, so surprise him with the M2M. To be honest, not a horrible idea, and the player made a pretty tough, contested shot.
If we had stayed in a zone and one of their guys had made a three over it to win in regulation, everybody would have said 'why didn't K go back to the M2M? It's too easy to get a three over the zone.'
No way to win against the monday-morning quarterback.

[Saratoga2]

First of all, I hope that Keels will recover from whatever lower leg injury he suffered. I love his defense and he is one of our best at bringing the ball up and making plays.

It should be clear by now that Moore is not a play maker and should contribute from off the ball. He is a good defender and can score but is a liability when put into the role of a play maker.

Asking Banchero to advanced the ball, carry the scoring load, rebound and defend is putting a lot on him and must be tiring. Keels and Roach are solid options for advancing the ball efficiently. They can find ways to get the ball to Banchero.

Banchero did an excellent job of passing the ball to Williams and we should continue to look for that play.

Griffin is still an excellent scoring option and should be given additional encouragement to be aggressive on the offensive end. His scoring and defense late helped to keep us in the game.

I would hope we could be more aware of the game situation. Some of our players lose track and wind up making mistakes in judgment at key points.

[UrinalCake]

Everyone praising the team is losing sight of the teams we're losing to. These teams are NIT quality.

An NIT team who sees Duke on the other side of the court and has their only sellout crowd of the season behind them becomes a completely different team. We say this so many times that it feels cliche, but Duke gets everybody's best shot. I might not be a very fast runner, but if there's a tiger chasing me then all of a sudden my speed increases.

[Furniture]

On the bright side Duke didn’t lose by 28...

[dukelifer]

Given how many people here are praising Duke's heart in the comeback, I suspect you are in the minority in your assessment of those three words. I'd like to have you carry that message to Coach K and see how he feels about it.

Starting to think that the ACC is having a down year, so each team is gonna come out guns blazing, trying to get their signature W against our team.

It's gonna be a serious grind for the next six weeks for our team.

Exactly- Beat Duke and maybe that will be enough. Every team in the ACC can beat Duke- buy they are inconsistent. Duke cannot take a night off. I am not sure this team has enough experience to handle the grind. Moore was playing like that guy- the one who could settle the team down when things got tight- but he is not playing that way right now. Without that player- it is hard to take everyone’s best shot.

[goduke03861]

I can only pray Jon brings in an offensive game plan that isn't dribble and beat your man. K's roll the ball out OAD offense often leads to confusion and bad shots. Our talent to have players that can beat their man has resulted in our lofty offensive rankings in this Era. I could only imagine what it would be with sets and plays.