I mentioned upthread that this team being just outside the top 10 feels about right. Good, but not yet great. We can get there but the margin of error for a #1 seed is really small now. I don't think we can afford more than two more losses, and we have a really tough schedule ahead, including two 3-game road trips. I'd say about a 1 in 3 chance for the regular season title now, but I like our chances for an ACCT title, one last one for Coach.
Yeah hard disagree on Baker/John. Baker's obviously a very limited player (4 fouls in 19 minutes as a wing is not ideal), and probably not the game to play him extended minutes when we're getting manhandled on the glass. John just isn't it...significant net negative on offense (and kills spacing for Paolo), and not the gamechanger on D to make up for it (not to mention a very poor rebounder for a true 5). Would definitely avoid checking Henry Coleman's stats in SEC play...
I agree with that - this team is not experienced so it is not like we have a senior leading the way on the final play. And I think the general philosophy behind not calling the TO is so the other team cannot get set. In this case they had plenty of time to get set anyway, so call the TO. Having a guard drive right into their gigantic front line just makes no sense.
We showed a lot of heart in the comeback and the move to the zone was smart, but it should not have come to that. For so much of the game they were outhustling and out-toughing us. Though he didn't add a lot to the stat sheet, I liked how Theo came in and gave us some muscle and heart to counter this.
I really liked seeing Paolo asserting himself to bring us back - he wanted to be the alpha.
Hopefully Keels is OK and we will bounce back strong this weekend. Covid is behind us.
This exactly. M2M is 100% the right call there so you eliminate the uncontested 3 pointer and you live with a tough 2 pointer for them to tie. Doesn't matter if you are home or away team in that situation on defense you play the right set that gets you to OT. On the other side offensively if in that same situation you have the chance to feel how the game has been going and make a decision to win or go to OT. If the roles were reversed I would have expected K to draw something up for a winning three and to avoid OT. As the away team I always try to avoid OT especially in a game like tonight where you feel like it's stealing the win.
This is a team that will need to peak late to have a shot at a title. A lot will need to come together. There is talent and potential there, but it is pretty raw and there are some flaws that may be hard to fix in the season. Also special teams usually find a way to win close games. I see talent but not special yet. We shall see if they can make a run.
Sorry, but Florida State brought all three of those elements in spades to us in the first and second half. We did not match their emotion, energy, or toughness until very late in the game. Had we matched them all the way through we win.
Sure, we can talk about the heart the team had coming back after Keels went down in the last few minutes of regulation and overtime. I will not take that away from them. But that does not negate the fact that before that point we got our butts handed to us in all three of those categories for the first half and at least the first 15 minutes of the second half. There is simply no denying this.
2015 team came together late, and their defense jumped multiple notches DURING the tournament. So it could happen.
We have much more frequently seen teams that were really strong at the beginning of the season and then came back to earth than the other way around, but it is not impossible.
Tough to lose two games bu a total of two points, though. Hope it lights a fire under them rather than pulls the rug out from beneath them. Different teams respond to this kind of thing in different ways.
5 thoughts...
1. Losing 2 of 3 (if it stays that way) in mid-season is not a kiss of death. It sucks, yes. But it's not the end of the world. But did I say that it sucks?
2. I actually saw a bright side when Roach got called for the block in OT. Duke would get the ball back with a shot to win. I totally agree, though, with other posters - give Banchero the damn ball. Moore had FSU's only big on him. Banchero could have cut to the hole, taken a pass from Moore and hit the winner or got fouled. I like Moore and will forever be grateful for hitting the shot against Carolina, but I want Banchero to take the last shot in any game this year.
3. Keels was shooting poorly, much worse than the rest of the team. So offensively, him going out wasn't so key to the game. But Duke needs Keels back, especially defensively long term. He had Duke's only 2 steals in the game.
4. Keels going out made Roach the de facto replacement. I personally think with all the other weapons Duke had on the floor, Roach should never have taken the first Duke shot on any possession (to quote the great Norman Dale, "Don't shoot the ball unless you are under the basket, all by yourself!"). Griffin had 5, Roach had 6 (albeit Roach played 6 more minutes). Roach should channel an inner Wojo... He also needs to get out of the way of Duke's bigs on the boards. I admire the moxy, but once during the last minutes of regulation, he was down low and in Williams' way, and the ball got knocked out off of Roach.
5. The OT was actually generally great OT from a competitive perspective. I was happy Duke didn't fold up right away when FSU hit that 3 to start OT (I was thinking about the OT loss to KU in the Elite 8 when that happened). But as I said, though losing 2 of 3 isn't the kiss of death, the end of the OT just sucked.
9F
I will never talk about That Game. GTHC.
I hate the level of physicality teams are allowed to play with against us.
I don’t watch basketball to watch slaps holds and pushes.
On the ACC bright side, we are giving some of our ACC brethren some Q1 wins. I am not in favor of this trend.
Generally I agree, and I hold my breath every time he goes to the basket. Somehow he jumps without getting any height and has his layup blocked way more than any Featured PG at Duke than I recall. But he did hit that same floater against Gonzaga to take the final lead, as I recall. SO I was excited when he took it.
I thought the offense was more focused with him back at the point, but even when he was at his best, there is a certain naivete in our back court players (Keels, Roach, Moore)
This team has lost three games by 8 combined points. We don’t need a complete transformation to become a great team. Incremental improvements in protecting the ball on offense, eliminating one or two defensive miscues per game, and finding more creative ways to get Paolo the ball in dangerous spots more consistently can take this team to the next level. All of those are very doable. It sucks to lose this game, for sure, but I’m still confident this team has another level it can reach this season.
Gotta have a healthy Keels though.
Originally Posted by gofurman View Post
I think he was kinda Forced to go zone without Keels.. As a matter of fact, it killed me that after our great run at end of regulation to get ahead by 2 we went back to M2M for the last possession... just to make sure they scored. They have the athletes to beat us off the dribble - why go M2M on that possession? STAY ZONE, it was working so well
"Dance with who brung ya baby" - there is a reason that quote exists. If I am running the football 7 yards per play off right tackle... Guess what? I running off right tackle the next 5 plays until they stop it.
I don't doubt we wanted to surprise them. Like surprising them by not having Banchero take a shot for 14 minutes... or surprise them by Banchero bringing it up the floor to wear himself out. SURPRISE! people are too scared to say K makes mistakes here. He does - BIG ONES. To not call a timeout and get the possible #1 draft choice a shot at the end? (advance the ball and call timeout) THATS A MISTAKE
We are all human. K made some big mistakes tonight. Hope the team gets better - less turnovers and better rebounds.
Hope Keels is ok !!!!!!!
What was K's explanation for either not calling a TO at the end of not getting the ball to Paolo?
He makes mistakes, to be sure, but we will have to agree to disagree about whether it was a mistake to play man to man on the last possession of regulation.
I agree not calling a time-out to set up a play at the end of the OT was a mistake.
I do not, however, think that Paolo needed to be the one to get the ball or take the last shot. Off the top of my head I can think of two losses that occurred after going to the most obvious player on the last play; one was a national championship game and one was an elite eight game. Sometimes going to the most obvious player is so obvious that it backfires.
Remember how we won the nailbiter in Tallahassee in Zion's year? K set up a play in which he used both Zion and RJ as decoys; he had Zion going around a Barrett screen close to the basket, which allowed Reddish to be wide open for the game-winning three.
A time-out tonight with a play either going to Paolo or using Paolo as a decoy and allowing a shot for AJ would have been ideal. Moore driving into the teeth of the defense to get blocked was clearly suboptimal, so I guess we agree on that.