Originally Posted by
JasonEvans
Well... I dunno if I would go quite that far. Yes, the WCC has more top level teams than usual, but I dunno if playing a WCC schedule is quite like playing an ACC schedule.
Let's look at the quadrants, seeing as that is a major, major part of the seeding profile for each team. I'm only gonna look at home and away as there are no neutral games during the conference regular season. All the numbers below reflect NET rankings, not KenPom or other metrics.
Home
Q1 - teams ranked 1-30: ACC - 1 (Duke), WCC - 2 (Gonzaga, BYU)
Q2 - teams ranked 31-75: ACC - 5 (UNC, VT, Wake, FSU, ND) , WCC - 2 (San Fran, St Mary's)
Q3 - teams ranked 76 - 160: ACC - 8 (Clem, Miami, VA, Syrac, Lou, NCSU, GT, BC), WCC - 2 (LMU, Santa Clara)
Q4 - teams ranked 161 or lower: ACC - 1 (Pitt), WCC - 4 (SD, Port, Pepperdine, Pacific)
Road
Q1 - teams ranked 1-75: ACC - 6 (Duke, UNC, VT, Wake, FSU, ND), WCC - 4 (Gonzaga, BYU, San Fran, St Mary's)
Q2 - teams ranked 76-135: ACC - 5 (Clem, Miami, VA, Syrac, Lou, NCSU) , WCC - 1 (Santa Clara)
Q3 - teams ranked 135 - 240: ACC - 3 (, GT, BC, Pitt), WCC - 3 (LMU, SD, Portland)
Q4 - teams ranked 241 or lower: ACC - 0, WCC - 2 (Pepperdine, Pacific)
As you can see, the middle of the ACC is miles... miles ahead of the WCC. Fully half the road games in the WCC present a chance at a Q3 or Q4 loss. The ACC doesn't even have a Q4 team on the road and only 3 out of 15 road games are in Q3.
There are many, many more opportunities for good wins (Q1 and Q2) in the ACC than in the WCC. Despite Gonzaga playing a daunting pre-conference schedule with 5 top quality teams, Duke is going to end up with several more Q1 games than Gonazga will this season. That matters and that is because our conference slate is significantly better than theirs's.
Now, it also means there are more opportunities for Duke to take a loss playing a decent team, far more games where the outcome is in doubt, but you take the good with the bad. Bottom line, playing in the ACC and playing in the WCC remain very different animals... even in this year of nearly unprecedented strength in the WCC and weakness in the ACC.