Duke MBB @ FSU (1/18, 9:00 PM EST, ESPN) Pre-game and In-game Thread

[DavidBenAkiva]

Jon Rothstein is reporting that FSU's Malik Osborne is doubtful for the game tonight. That's a big blow for FSU. He's not just another experienced tough wing. As CDU pointed out, he's a defacto small-ball 5 for them. Duke might have the advantage in the frontcourt in this one.

Ball security, rebounding, and making jumpers will be key in this one.

[CameronDuke]

FSU hasn’t beaten Duke in Tallahassee in over 5 years. The last FSU win over Duke was 88-72 FSU on January 10, 2017. In fact, Duke has owned FSU lately. Since losing to FSU 62-59 in the 2012 ACC Tournament in Atlanta, Duke has won 9 of the last 10 overall against FSU.

[jv001]

FSU hasn’t beaten Duke in Tallahassee in over 5 years. The last FSU win over Duke was 88-72 FSU on January 10, 2017. In fact, Duke has owned FSU lately. Since losing to FSU 62-59 in the 2012 ACC Tournament in Atlanta, Duke has won 9 of the last 10 overall against FSU.

Thank you for the info. I didn't realize that Duke had won 9 of the last 10 games. I guess it's because the games are so physical.

GoDuke!

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

FSU hasn’t beaten Duke in Tallahassee in over 5 years. The last FSU win over Duke was 88-72 FSU on January 10, 2017. In fact, Duke has owned FSU lately. Since losing to FSU 62-59 in the 2012 ACC Tournament in Atlanta, Duke has won 9 of the last 10 overall against FSU.

Well, FSU has an amazing home record over the last few seasons. Not sure how meaningful that stat is, since some high profile coaches seem to actually literally pull their players off the floor and into the locker room before the final horn.

[CDu]

FSU hasn’t beaten Duke in Tallahassee in over 5 years. The last FSU win over Duke was 88-72 FSU on January 10, 2017. In fact, Duke has owned FSU lately. Since losing to FSU 62-59 in the 2012 ACC Tournament in Atlanta, Duke has won 9 of the last 10 overall against FSU.

This is a bit misleading. We've only played FSU in Tallahassee once since that 2017 loss. It was a 2-point win for us (with one of our best teams of the last decade).

Our 2021 matchup would have been in Tallahassee (and likely would have been a loss), but was cancelled due to COVID.

Here are our games in Tallahassee over the past decade:
2013: 19 point win over the #118 team in Torvik
2015: 3pt win over the #87 team, with us as #5
2017: 16pt loss to the #27 team with us as the #8 team
2019: 2pt win over the #16 team, with us as the #2 team

The rest were either home games or neutral site games.

Tallahassee hasn't been a pleasant place for us to play over the years.

[DavidBenAkiva]

This is a bit misleading. We've only played FSU in Tallahassee once since that 2017 loss. It was a 2-point win for us (with one of our best teams of the last decade).

Our 2021 matchup would have been in Tallahassee (and likely would have been a loss), but was cancelled due to COVID.

Here are our games in Tallahassee over the past decade:
2013: 19 point win over the #118 team in Torvik
2015: 3pt win over the #87 team, with us as #5
2017: 16pt loss to the #27 team with us as the #8 team
2019: 2pt win over the #16 team, with us as the #2 team

The rest were either home games or neutral site games.

Tallahassee hasn't been a pleasant place for us to play over the years.

I also feel confident in saying Duke would have lost to FSU last year had they not gotten COVID.

Coach K is 20-7 against Leonard Hamilton during his time as head coach at FSU. Of those games, K is 8-4 in Tallahassee and has won 4 of the last 5 games played there. That's a pretty good record against one of the better coaches in the conference. We all remember the losses, of course.

[DukieInBrasil]

Keels, Moore and Griffin are the keys to the game, to me. They are big and strong and if they can keep FSU's guards/wings from getting all the way to the rim then that will bode well for Duke's chances at winning. I've watched FSU play a time or 2 and wasn't wowed by them. I have not been wowed by Duke in some time either, but we are strong and long enough to disrupt what FSU wants to do on offense and to stymy their defensive style. Seems that we match up well with them, although their depth could be their advantage if it's close late in the game. I'm not sure how well Joey Baker matches up with any FSU player, but he's gonna have to play if for no other reason than to give others some rest. Hopefully a couple of shots fall. Jeremy has taken on a very different basketball persona since coming off the bench, as more of a distributor, which is fine, and he has been a good defender all year, up until post-COVID break. If he can limit getting blown by on defense, something he has struggled with post-Cb, then that will also help limit FSU lackluster offense.

[FerryFor50]

I was worried before the NCSU game because State has a lot of talent and some lanky wings that can get to the rim. Duke handled State very well.

I think FSU has a similar makeup, but with a bit more size. I don't expect Mark to feast against FSU like he did against State, but this will be a good test for him.

Without Malik Osborne, I don't think FSU has anyone to guard Banchero effectively, so it really depends on how aggressive he is at the rim and if the FSU bigs are able to protect the rim without fouling.

Overall, if Banchero can continue to play well and Moore continues to return to his early season form, I don't think this game will be too scary. Losing Osborne is a big deal for FSU IMO, unless one of the other role players goes off. But it's definitely one FSU can win.

[hallcity]

FSU hasn’t beaten Duke in Tallahassee in over 5 years. The last FSU win over Duke was 88-72 FSU on January 10, 2017. In fact, Duke has owned FSU lately. Since losing to FSU 62-59 in the 2012 ACC Tournament in Atlanta, Duke has won 9 of the last 10 overall against FSU.

Shhh! The Weauff Gods are listening.

[AvlDukie]

Just a personal note from me re: tonight’s game…
I had the privilege of coaching Caleb Mills here in Asheville for six years on a very competitive travel team, beginning when he and my son were 4th graders. Great kid and great family.
CDu is correct in describing him as a scorer - best player I have personally ever seen at scoring the ball at all three levels. Almost unguardable when he gets hot from 3, as Syracuse can attest. His one weakness, if there is one, is that he tends to get uncomfortable with physical defenders. Maybe Keels or Moore can prevent him from getting too comfortable in this game.
Suffice to say that I am hoping Caleb has a great game in a comfortable Blue Devils victory!

[gumbomoop]

I'm not sure how well Joey Baker matches up with any FSU player, but he's gonna have to play if for no other reason than to give others some rest.

Wyatt Wilkes. Fifth yr senior, 6’8”, slow, not good handle, 13 mpg, mostly 3-bomber, 38% on 3s last 2 years, but only 31% this season.

[CDu]

Wyatt Wilkes. Fifth yr senior, 6’8”, slow, not good handle, 13 mpg, mostly 3-bomber, 38% on 3s last 2 years, but only 31% this season.

And also Wilkes' backup Harrison Prieto. A walk-on.

If Osborne doesn't play (as is expected), Wilkes and Prieto will each be forced to play more minutes. And those are minutes where, if needed, Baker could match up fine in theory.

That said, FSU isn't forced to allow Baker to only guard those guys. They can easily run screen action and get Baker isolated on Mills, who would torch him.

[Natty_B]

It's been almost two years since Duke has played FSU right? Since the game one day after the great UNC win.

[gumbomoop]

And also Wilkes' backup Harrison Prieto. A walk-on.

If Osborne doesn't play (as is expected), Wilkes and Prieto will each be forced to play more minutes. And those are minutes where, if needed, Baker could match up fine in theory.

That said, FSU isn't forced to allow Baker to only guard those guys. They can easily run screen action and get Baker isolated on Mills, who would torch him.

Hardly the very most intriguing matchup tonight, but I will be interested in how K wants to handle this specific screen. If Duke switches, Baker’s in trouble, so maybe Baker goes under the screen. That’s trouble, too, if Wilkes has plenty of time and is on fire from deep.

[CDu]

Hardly the very most intriguing matchup tonight, but I will be interested in how K wants to handle this specific screen. If Duke switches, Baker’s in trouble, so maybe Baker goes under the screen. That’s trouble, too, if Wilkes has plenty of time and is on fire from deep.

The issue would be Wilkes setting the screen, not receiving the screen. Such that Baker would be forced to pick up the ballhandler. I have no concerns about FSU trying to screen Baker's man free from him.

That being said, I am not sure I'd expect Baker to see much time. So I doubt it gets a lot of play. But Wilkes (when guarded by Baker) setting a screen for Mills will put Duke in an uncomfortable choice of having the guy guarding Baker go under the screen (freeing Mills for a 3) or risk getting Baker iso'd on Mills.

[Pghdukie]

This will obviously be a physical game. As a result, If Duke stays out of foul trouble, they win the game.

[TywinBlue]

Tallahassee is a difficult place to play- GO DUKE !!

[hsheffield]

Miami v UNC

30-11 Miami

good for Duke on many levels

lots of TO for UNC. sounds familiar...

[-jk]

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[heyman25]

Just hope we play hard smart and give it our best 40 minutes. Like to see few forced errors, better rebounding, solid defense and making a good percentage of shots. Like to see that every game, but never seem to get consistency from the 8 players that get the Playing time.