Autopsy of a Loss: Duke vs Miami

[uh_no]

I suspect we are unlikely to win any games with 17 turnovers.

I watched in person and haven't revisited the game to watch with replays, but it certainly felt a lot like the turnovers were sloppy offense, not stellar defense.

We beat south carolina state by 41 despite 16 turnovers...Not sure that 17th one would have done us in

From a technical definition of "unlikely," you are probably correct that there is a <50% chance we win a game this year while committing 17 turnovers. However, I disagree that it an especially unlikely occurrence.

we average 71 possessions a game, and turn it over 14% of the time...so that's 10 turnovers a game. On an average possession we score 1.16 points, so an extra 7 turnovers amounts to ~8 points. We have 7 games remaining on our schedule which we are expected to win by 8 or more points.

So yes, it's unlikely to actually occur, but IF we have a game from here on out where we have 17 turnovers, there is about a 42% chance we would be expected to win the game anyway, not the worst odds or a sure thing by far.

[Wander]

Just to note too that, upon a rewatch, those first half turnovers were for the most part just so absurd. Many were completely unforced, or just head-scratchingly bad decisions or physical miscues, sloppy and otherwise.

And nearly all of the turnovers (15 of 17!) were in the form of live-ball steals, which sucks and is a pretty unusual percentage.

[DukieInBrasil]

And nearly all of the turnovers (15 of 17!) were in the form of live-ball steals, which sucks and is a pretty unusual percentage.

that is a remarkable live-ball steal rate, and also something that i noticed too, that so many of them led directly to Miami getting out in transition.

[CDu]

that is a remarkable live-ball steal rate, and also something that i noticed too, that so many of them led directly to Miami getting out in transition.

It actually resulted in relatively few transition opportunities. They got four breakouts off turnovers, resulting in 9 points. The rest turned into halfcourt possessions.

[FUBARDoorBuster]

One last thing I haven't seen in these posts- I was in the stands and thought at the time that Duke was doing the Coach Roy, "let them run the last offensive play without a time out', then realized that we were out of time outs. We did have time to regroup when the clock reset was checked at 0.7 secs, but did not get the chance to get a good play. Banchero ran a pick for Keels- I thought that Keels could have turned and set a pick back for Paolo to get that pass in the same spot.
It made me remember how effective the usual end of the game timeout has been for Coach K over the years to get the last successful shot, and how we deride the Cheats when they save that timeout for 'the next game'?!
Check out how effective both coaches were in using a timeout in that game not only to stop a streak by the opposition but also to run off 5-7 points directly afterwards for the side that called the timeout. Both coaches are great at what they do, but Miami had the last time out to call, and got the points they needed. We spent a time out early in the second half when Roach was in front of our bench and couldn't get a play going.
We have all seen miracle games when we played horrible but the last timeout turned the game in our favor. Miami twisted that on us in this game.