Autopsy of a Loss: Duke vs Miami

[CDu]

So, I didn't get to see the first half and early in the second half of the game. But given what I saw in the second half, I wanted to do a rewind and better understand the loss. My focus was on the turnovers and the backdoor cuts, as they were the main theme here. And, of course, the ill-fated final 30 seconds when the wheels came off for good.

First-half Turnovers:
1. 18:47: Roach has the ball near the sideline, Moore swipes at it and knocks it loose off Roach's leg/foot and out of bounds. Not a great job of protecting the ball by Roach, and also a timely play by Moore.
2. 16:35: Banchero lobs to Williams, who is spinning in the post trying to get position. Williams doesn't see it, and it falls to a Miami player as a result. Just a miscommunication there. Right idea, but you have to make sure the recipient is ready.
3. 15:15: Moore steals a pass along the baseline, but gets trapped in the corner. He tries to force a pass out, but it gets picked off by Wong. Tough break for Moore, who did a good job hustling to get the ball. But it wasn't a good decision once he got trapped. This one leads to a transition basket for Miami.
4. 14:55: Roach tries to split the double-team as Williams slips the screen. Roach dribbles it off the foot of a Miami player, and the ball squirts away to a defender. A bit unfortunate here. I don't hate the idea of splitting the double-team (something Roach does successfully often, including in the Miami game), but you have to make sure you get the dribble through if you are going to try it. This one leads to a fouled 3pt shooter in transition.
5. 12:57: John tries to attack Gak in the post, but loses the dribble. Just sloppy ballhandling.
6. 12:44: Wendell Moore gets a steal, but in transition tries a behind the back dribble. Dribbles it off his foot out of bounds for a turnover.
7. 10:51: Griffin drives and tries to drop it to Williams for a dunk in traffic. But Miami deflects the pass and ultimately gets the steal. I like the unselfishness, but the lane was just too crowded to pull it off.
8. 10:32: Moore tries an outlet pass to Williams in transition. Moore reads it and steals it. Just too aggressive there, and not thrown high enough to take Moore out of the play.

Note: despite 9 turnovers in the first 10 minutes, we are up 5 (21-16). So our defense - and our offense when not turning it over - has been amazing to this point. Miami has just 11 points that didn't come directly from turnovers, and Duke has 21 points despite losing 8 possessions to turnover. Crazy, and frustrating. If we cut that number in half, we probably have a double-digit lead at this point.

9. 8:32: Williams commits a moving screen, backing into Keels' man on a dribble handoff. That's just a lazy turnover, as Williams is trying to cheat to get to the lane quicker and give Keels more room to shoot.

At the 7 minute mark, we're up 26-18. Things are looking really good in spite of the sloppy play!

10. 6:13: Moore attempts an uncontested pass on the perimeter, but fumbles it in the process. Miami recovers the loose ball. Just sloppy. So far, almost all of these are unforced mistakes by Duke. This one results in a transition playup. The 7th point directly resulting from a turnover (note: this is not ALL points off turnovers, which I think is a silly stat as it includes dead ball turnovers and half-court possessions).
11. 5:13: Williams dribbles from the top of the key to the rim, but gets the ball poked free by Miami as he's about to go up for a dunk. Good recovery by Miami, and a touch of Williams not being strong enough with the ball.
12. 4:25: Roach tries to force a pass through 3 defenders to Williams in the post. Miami gets the steal. Trying to do too much there. No need.
13. 0:37: On the inbounds pass, Moore and Roach run into each other just as the ball reaches Moore, who fumbles it right to Moore. Just bad luck here.

So, 13 turnovers, all but a couple were unforced. A combination of rust, sloppiness, and bad luck. If that number is halved, we are probably up double-digits at the half. Instead, it's a tie game.

First-half Back-doors:
1. 4:07: Roach gets burned by Poplar.

So far, while Miami has set up several opportunities for it, the back door has not been open much. The key to the game to this point has been Duke's unforced turnovers. That needs to stop.


Second-half Turnovers:
14. 19:18: Moore tries to feed Williams on a drive, but Miami reads it and steals it. The pass wasn't really there.
15. 12:00: Moore with a feed to Banchero in the high post. This one is on Banchero, who doesn't seal hard enough and doesn't secure the ball once it gets there. Jordan Miller deflects it off Banchero out of bounds. I'm pretty sure the ball was off Miller, but still a bad effort by Banchero on this play.
16. 9:17: Banchero tries to back his man down from the top of the key, dribbles into a double-team, gets picked. Leads to a transition layup.

Miami is now up 6. The turnovers are now officially proving costly, as we've allowed 10 points off those turnovers and lost 16 possessions of our offense. The game should still be a reasonably comfortable (6-8 point) lead for us. Instead, we're stuck in claw-back mode.

17. 5:56: Williams tries some post moves, gets stripped when the perimeter defender crashes down and deflects it out of his hands. Gotta be stronger with the ball, but good defense.

Duke was down 2 at that point, and would commit no more turnovers. They should have been up double-digits (12-15 points) at this point.

18*. Not an official turnover, but Griffin fumbles away a transition offensive rebound at 5:08 that goes to Miami. Another costly miscue.

Second-half Back-doors:
2. 18:16: McGusty gets behind Roach.
3. 4:54: Miller back-doors AJ Griffin.
4. 3:33: Poplar back-doors Griffin.

Now we are to those fateful last 44.9 seconds. It's amazing that we're up 3, despite such a brutal performance protecting the ball. But we really should be up by almost 20 if we'd had a "normal" turnover game. Even still, we have about a 70% win probability at that point. And then...

Roach slips on Moore's drive. In doing so, his lower body slides into Moore, causing the foul. That's just an unfortunate break. To add insult to injury, Moore throws up a circus shot that somehow goes in. Just a brutal split-second out come there, just bad luck. And then...

Not sure why Griffin is assigned to box out Waardenburg and Banchero Miller, but that's the alignment. Griffin's boxout of Waardenburg was a bit soft. Waardenburg slides under Banchero, and kind of blocks Banchero's right arm from going up. Banchero only gets his left hand on the ball, and Miller is able to scoop the rebound away before Banchero can get both hands on it. Probably not the best alignment, definitely not the best boxout by Griffin, probably a foul on Waardenburg, and just some bad luck in Banchero not squeezing it.

Even still, we're up 1. In the scramble, Banchero gets stuck on McGusty, who drives past him into traffic. Because Williams isn't in the game, we don't really have a shotblocker, and McGusty makes the contested layup. Still, we are down just one...

We don't have a timeout, so we run a weave. Even though it's not interesting, I'd rather we just iso Banchero on Waardenburg. But, alas, not a ton of time. Even still, I think Keels got fouled on his drive to the lane. Unfortunately, as is often the case, the whistles got tight late. And his 10 footer for the lead was offline. Miami gets the rebound, we foul. And even STILL, we have a chance...

Moore takes a pull-up 3 for the lead with a few seconds left. One could argue that Moore driving in transition might have been the better play. But I don't hate the look. It was open, if a bit off-balance. Even STILL we have a chance...

Keels gets an open look, but comes up short. It wasn't the most creative play call, and probably wasn't the preferred shooter given his season. But with 0.7 you don't have a ton of options.

Just a frustrating loss. But my autopsy reveals a few things to me:
1. It confirmed that (a) the turnovers were the key to our loss, and that (b) it was almost entirely on us.
2. The back-door cuts were frustrating, but not actually all that common in the game. Not the reason we lost.
3. The final 45 seconds was just a clinic on everything going just not quite right. I don't think we did anything particularly poorly in that sequence, it just was that nearly everything went against us that could possibly go wrong. Even Moore making a free throw would have been a better outcome, as we'd have held for the last possession and at worst gone to OT.

The good news is that unforced errors can be corrected. It don't know if it was rust, COVID fatigue, or lack of focus. But I hope it is one of the first two. If so, it's something that should improve simply with time and more practices/games. If the lack of focus, that's trickier, but probably still something the staff can cure. Ultimately still a very frustrating loss, but one that can hopefully provide really good learning opportunities about the importance of protecting the ball.

[AZLA]

Good analysis. Duke is well known for over extending man-to-man defense out to the perimeter and is rife for back door cuts, always has been, and a good coach like Larranaga (and most teams scout this) knows how to exploit it. I've always felt this is Coach K's style and he's willing to do it, but with the understanding that there is strong help defense ready to rotate over like Theo, Mark, or Paolo. So it's not so much giving up the back door (it seemed like there was way too much in this particular game), it's the fact it wasn't recognized soon enough by the help to rotate over. Your emphasis on turnovers is where the primary culprit of this loss lies and presents the best opportunity for improvement going forward. This game looked like many of last year's games where valuing the ball protection was sorely lacking. We took a huge step back in this game in terms of having a top point guard experience. Specifically, Roach and Moore are going to, I expect, dial it in this week in practice and going into this next game. They have to and they will. Honestly, I wish Goldwire were still around to have come off the bench and stabilized the penetration defense and tightened up ball handling. But also, when players are coming off illness they're mentally and physically tired, and the first thing to go is concentration, and turnovers happen. I'm chalking it up to that. I think Duke is going to regroup, practice hard to avoid slipping back into some of those bad habits we saw last year, and start dominating again once they're feeling 100% healthy. This was an outlier game. I hope Duke gets to play Miami again in the ACC -- they will steamroll them in a payback game if they get a second chance.

[Spanarkel]

So, I didn't get to see the first half and early in the second half of the game. But given what I saw in the second half, I wanted to do a rewind and better understand the loss. My focus was on the turnovers and the backdoor cuts, as they were the main theme here. And, of course, the ill-fated final 30 seconds when the wheels came off for good.

First-half Turnovers:
1. 18:47: Roach has the ball near the sideline, Moore swipes at it and knocks it loose off Roach's leg/foot and out of bounds. Not a great job of protecting the ball by Roach, and also a timely play by Moore.
2. 16:35: Banchero lobs to Williams, who is spinning in the post trying to get position. Williams doesn't see it, and it falls to a Miami player as a result. Just a miscommunication there. Right idea, but you have to make sure the recipient is ready.
3. 15:15: Moore steals a pass along the baseline, but gets trapped in the corner. He tries to force a pass out, but it gets picked off by Wong. Tough break for Moore, who did a good job hustling to get the ball. But it wasn't a good decision once he got trapped. This one leads to a transition basket for Miami.
4. 14:55: Roach tries to split the double-team as Williams slips the screen. Roach dribbles it off the foot of a Miami player, and the ball squirts away to a defender. A bit unfortunate here. I don't hate the idea of splitting the double-team (something Roach does successfully often, including in the Miami game), but you have to make sure you get the dribble through if you are going to try it. This one leads to a fouled 3pt shooter in transition.
5. 12:57: John tries to attack Gak in the post, but loses the dribble. Just sloppy ballhandling.
6. 12:44: Wendell Moore gets a steal, but in transition tries a behind the back dribble. Dribbles it off his foot out of bounds for a turnover.
7. 10:51: Griffin drives and tries to drop it to Williams for a dunk in traffic. But Miami deflects the pass and ultimately gets the steal. I like the unselfishness, but the lane was just too crowded to pull it off.
8. 10:32: Moore tries an outlet pass to Williams in transition. Moore reads it and steals it. Just too aggressive there, and not thrown high enough to take Moore out of the play.

Note: despite 9 turnovers in the first 10 minutes, we are up 5 (21-16). So our defense - and our offense when not turning it over - has been amazing to this point. Miami has just 11 points that didn't come directly from turnovers, and Duke has 21 points despite losing 8 possessions to turnover. Crazy, and frustrating. If we cut that number in half, we probably have a double-digit lead at this point.

9. 8:32: Williams commits a moving screen, backing into Keels' man on a dribble handoff. That's just a lazy turnover, as Williams is trying to cheat to get to the lane quicker and give Keels more room to shoot.

At the 7 minute mark, we're up 26-18. Things are looking really good in spite of the sloppy play!

10. 6:13: Moore attempts an uncontested pass on the perimeter, but fumbles it in the process. Miami recovers the loose ball. Just sloppy. So far, almost all of these are unforced mistakes by Duke. This one results in a transition playup. The 7th point directly resulting from a turnover (note: this is not ALL points off turnovers, which I think is a silly stat as it includes dead ball turnovers and half-court possessions).
11. 5:13: Williams dribbles from the top of the key to the rim, but gets the ball poked free by Miami as he's about to go up for a dunk. Good recovery by Miami, and a touch of Williams not being strong enough with the ball.
12. 4:25: Roach tries to force a pass through 3 defenders to Williams in the post. Miami gets the steal. Trying to do too much there. No need.
13. 0:37: On the inbounds pass, Moore and Roach run into each other just as the ball reaches Moore, who fumbles it right to Moore. Just bad luck here.

So, 13 turnovers, all but a couple were unforced. A combination of rust, sloppiness, and bad luck. If that number is halved, we are probably up double-digits at the half. Instead, it's a tie game.

First-half Back-doors:
1. 4:07: Roach gets burned by Poplar.

So far, while Miami has set up several opportunities for it, the back door has not been open much. The key to the game to this point has been Duke's unforced turnovers. That needs to stop.


Second-half Turnovers:
14. 19:18: Moore tries to feed Williams on a drive, but Miami reads it and steals it. The pass wasn't really there.
15. 12:00: Moore with a feed to Banchero in the high post. This one is on Banchero, who doesn't seal hard enough and doesn't secure the ball once it gets there. Jordan Miller deflects it off Banchero out of bounds. I'm pretty sure the ball was off Miller, but still a bad effort by Banchero on this play.
16. 9:17: Banchero tries to back his man down from the top of the key, dribbles into a double-team, gets picked. Leads to a transition layup.

Miami is now up 6. The turnovers are now officially proving costly, as we've allowed 10 points off those turnovers and lost 16 possessions of our offense. The game should still be a reasonably comfortable (6-8 point) lead for us. Instead, we're stuck in claw-back mode.

17. 5:56: Williams tries some post moves, gets stripped when the perimeter defender crashes down and deflects it out of his hands. Gotta be stronger with the ball, but good defense.

Duke was down 2 at that point, and would commit no more turnovers. They should have been up double-digits (12-15 points) at this point.

18*. Not an official turnover, but Griffin fumbles away a transition offensive rebound at 5:08 that goes to Miami. Another costly miscue.

Second-half Back-doors:
2. 18:16: McGusty gets behind Roach.
3. 4:54: Miller back-doors AJ Griffin.
4. 3:33: Poplar back-doors Griffin.

Now we are to those fateful last 44.9 seconds. It's amazing that we're up 3, despite such a brutal performance protecting the ball. But we really should be up by almost 20 if we'd had a "normal" turnover game. Even still, we have about a 70% win probability at that point. And then...

Roach slips on Moore's drive. In doing so, his lower body slides into Moore, causing the foul. That's just an unfortunate break. To add insult to injury, Moore throws up a circus shot that somehow goes in. Just a brutal split-second out come there, just bad luck. And then...

Not sure why Griffin is assigned to box out Waardenburg and Banchero Miller, but that's the alignment. Griffin's boxout of Waardenburg was a bit soft. Waardenburg slides under Banchero, and kind of blocks Banchero's right arm from going up. Banchero only gets his left hand on the ball, and Miller is able to scoop the rebound away before Banchero can get both hands on it. Probably not the best alignment, definitely not the best boxout by Griffin, probably a foul on Waardenburg, and just some bad luck in Banchero not squeezing it.

Even still, we're up 1. In the scramble, Banchero gets stuck on McGusty, who drives past him into traffic. Because Williams isn't in the game, we don't really have a shotblocker, and McGusty makes the contested layup. Still, we are down just one...

We don't have a timeout, so we run a weave. Even though it's not interesting, I'd rather we just iso Banchero on Waardenburg. But, alas, not a ton of time. Even still, I think Keels got fouled on his drive to the lane. Unfortunately, as is often the case, the whistles got tight late. And his 10 footer for the lead was offline. Miami gets the rebound, we foul. And even STILL, we have a chance...

Moore takes a pull-up 3 for the lead with a few seconds left. One could argue that Moore driving in transition might have been the better play. But I don't hate the look. It was open, if a bit off-balance. Even STILL we have a chance...

Keels gets an open look, but comes up short. It wasn't the most creative play call, and probably wasn't the preferred shooter given his season. But with 0.7 you don't have a ton of options.

Just a frustrating loss. But my autopsy reveals a few things to me:
1. It confirmed that (a) the turnovers were the key to our loss, and that (b) it was almost entirely on us.
2. The back-door cuts were frustrating, but not actually all that common in the game. Not the reason we lost.
3. The final 45 seconds was just a clinic on everything going just not quite right. I don't think we did anything particularly poorly in that sequence, it just was that nearly everything went against us that could possibly go wrong. Even Moore making a free throw would have been a better outcome, as we'd have held for the last possession and at worst gone to OT.

The good news is that unforced errors can be corrected. It don't know if it was rust, COVID fatigue, or lack of focus. But I hope it is one of the first two. If so, it's something that should improve simply with time and more practices/games. If the lack of focus, that's trickier, but probably still something the staff can cure. Ultimately still a very frustrating loss, but one that can hopefully provide really good learning opportunities about the importance of protecting the ball.

Amazing summary! The Duke defender applying pressure to the passer on the backdoor cuts bears some responsibility for the play, doesn't he?

[tommy]

Thanks for that CDu. I was just doing a re-watch myself to document the backdoor cuts that so many have complained about on the game thread. I did the first half but now don't need to do the rest. You're right that there was only one in the first half, that being Roach being burned by Poplar. There was one other actually, that being Moore beaten on a backdoor at 4:39, but the Miami player shuffled the puppies underneath and got called for the travel.

What I noticed in the first half re-watch is how many times we actually defended the attempted backdoor quite well. We had our head on a swivel, were in proper denial position as the cut was made, and the play didn't work. I saw Roach do that, and Banchero, Baker, and Moore all do that well at least once.

We did get beaten on a number of other plays leading to layups, but just not backdoor plays. They beat us with straight line drives, ballfakes leading to shots at the rim, we had some bad rotations on simple screens that led to shots at the rim, and they had some other dribble drive moves that worked successfully. None of that was good, but the fact remains we did not get beaten much on backdoors, and I'm sure your analysis of the second half is correct too, that being that we had two guys get beaten twice apiece on backdoors, not a massive failure by lots of guys on the team.

Just to note too that, upon a rewatch, those first half turnovers were for the most part just so absurd. Many were completely unforced, or just head-scratchingly bad decisions or physical miscues, sloppy and otherwise. Hard to believe how many in such a short period. There is zero question in my mind that having anything close to our normal degree of care for the ball, and we win this game comfortably. The backdoors or other defensive lapses wouldn't have been nearly enough to beat us. It was all about those first half turnovers.

[CDu]

What I noticed in the first half re-watch is how many times we actually defended the attempted backdoor quite well. We had our head on a swivel, were in proper denial position as the cut was made, and the play didn't work. I saw Roach do that, and Banchero, Baker, and Moore all do that well at least once.

Yeah, I meant to make more of a point of this but didn't. So thanks for bringing it up. This was clearly part of Miami's gameplan. They ran the set numerous times in the first half, and Duke denied it well. Even the extra example you listed was a case of the defense recovering well to cause a travel. We were less effective at defending it in the second half, when we were less effective defensively in general. I think that was probably evidence of fatigue.

Just to note too that, upon a rewatch, those first half turnovers were for the most part just so absurd. Many were completely unforced, or just head-scratchingly bad decisions or physical miscues, sloppy and otherwise. Hard to believe how many in such a short period. There is zero question in my mind that having anything close to our normal degree of care for the ball, and we win this game comfortably. The backdoors or other defensive lapses wouldn't have been nearly enough to beat us. It was all about those first half turnovers.

Yes, this was my biggest takeaway as well. The turnovers in the first half were just SO bad. We actually weren't too bad in the second half. Just 4 turnovers. But the first half was awful. In an 8-10 turnover game we probably win by 10+. But with 17, our offense and our defense were put under enough stress that we came up with the loss instead.

[FUBARDoorBuster]

Amazing summary! The Duke defender applying pressure to the passer on the backdoor cuts bears some responsibility for the play, doesn't he?

On defense, didn't Coach K say in the presser that he wanted defense to play a "halfstep" off to limit the drive. We didn't get a body on drivers or get our feet in front to force a change of direction. It was like the defense was guiding them into a double team that never came. They played us chest to chest when we drove, but we offered very little resistance on their drives. Isn't if possible that if we have a six man rotation, then players want to avoid fouls? That seemed to be what happened late in the OSU game. Again this might always be a trade-off: deny the entry pass, pressure with double team, but don't foul on the drive or the block, because you can't get fouls back.
On offense, I feel like a pass should be designed to gain an advantage. But a pass in a two-on three with a packed lane does not help the situation. If the defense is packing the lane, there are open wings. We have to make threes to keep the defense spaced. The worst pass is the one where a defender is close enough to guard the passer and the target. There is no reason that when two players are diving down to the rim, that the pass can't find the open player outside instead of the clogged lane. That happened at least three times with two turnovers and the strip of Wendell at the end that was fortunate to end in Paolo's hands for a basket to go ahead at the end. The best pass is the post entry that goes right back out to prevent the double team, and has the recovering defender on his/her heels, stuck between.

[billy]

We did get beaten on a number of other plays leading to layups, but just not backdoor plays. They beat us with straight line drives, ballfakes leading to shots at the rim,

My pedestrian take on this is that Miami’s spread offense (which dragged our bigs well away from the basket) led to all of the things quoted. Why we didn’t counter defensively (zone, sagging D, whatever) is over my head.

[SouthernDukie]

Yes, this was my biggest takeaway as well. The turnovers in the first half were just SO bad. We actually weren't too bad in the second half. Just 4 turnovers. But the first half was awful. In an 8-10 turnover game we probably win by 10+. But with 17, our offense and our defense were put under enough stress that we came up with the loss instead.

As a perfect example of the absurdity of the turnovers, I distinctly remember Moore attempting what should have been a simple pass from the left side of the court over to the right, but the pass was so weak that it was easily picked off and a break ensued down to the other end. I remember at the time wondering how such a weak pass could have been made there. It was like I was watching 12 year old girl (no disrespect intended). And that was just one of the many really poor, unforced turnovers in that first half.

[CDu]

As a perfect example of the absurdity of the turnovers, I distinctly remember Moore attempting what should have been a simple pass from the left side of the court over to the right, but the pass was so weak that it was easily picked off and a break ensued down to the other end. I remember at the time wondering how such a weak pass could have been made there. It was like I was watching 12 year old girl (no disrespect intended). And that was just one of the many really poor, unforced turnovers in that first half.

Yeah, that one was really just a fumbled pass: he kind fumbled it as he was prepping to pass, and just kind of shoved it away to try to get it there. Still an unforced error, but perhaps a slightly more understandable error than simply throwing too short of a pass. And very much exemplary of the types of turnovers we committed. Dribbling it off our/others' feet. Throwing passes that weren't there. Just simply losing the dribble. At least 10 of those 13 turnovers in the first half shouldn't have happened at all. If we score on just 5 of those 10 possessions (which would be below average efficiency for us), we would have had a halftime lead of 10, and that's ignoring any additional points saved by preventing fast-break buckets off 3 of those turnovers.

Sooooooo frustrating to watch.

Hopefully the extra days off and extra practice this week will result in better play tomorrow night. I'm itching to see the team get back at it. I'm sure they're also extremely frustrated by the performance, and (rightfully) felt they gave the game away. Hopefully they come out with good discipline, energy, and focus, and play surprisingly well against Wake.

[dukebluesincebirth]

Thanks for this awesome analysis, and glad to see I'm not the only one who hasn't quite moved past this loss yet. I was at the game in the bleachers, my first game in many years and my wife's first game ever. The experience was magical, so to have it end the way it did was heartbreaking for us. I've had a really hard time letting this one go (hopefully harder than the team). The mix of poor play and bad luck was a lethal, and extremely frustrating combination. As many have said, turnovers. I was pulling my hair out and cursing under my mask quite often during the first half-- I mean, the types of turnovers we had were just awful to watch. I couldn't see it that well from my spot, but didn't we just throw away a simple inbounds pass at some point?? It was like watching a middle school team. I guess I'll chalk turnovers up to covid effects and hope I never see anything like that from Duke again. As far as the defense, too much extended overplaying for too long of a time. I understand there needs to be some backdoor help from the bigs, but there was NO help. Time and time again. I feel like at some point you have to realize that you're not executing the style of defense we've chosen, so something has to change. We never changed. I heard K say we were too spread out on the and-1 drive (and lucky-I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this. shot) by Moore. My problem is that we were too spread out the entire game, so why were we STILL too spread out on the decisive possession? And Wendell should have been guarding Charlie on that possession. Sometimes I feel like K will roll the dice with a win or loss in order to teach a lesson, and maybe that's why we didn't change. Or maybe he asked for change and the kids didn't listen and respond. Whatever the case, it was super frustrating to watch. I had forgotten how quickly the game goes by when there live vs watching on TV. No replays, so hard to analyze in the moment. Thanks for helping us process it, and hopefully we turn this around quickly!

[azzefkram]

Great analysis CDu. In addition to the actual TOs, I remember noticing how often the receiving player had to jump up or lunge forward/back to catch the pass. Extremely sloppy.

I get that K doesn't like to give up 3s, but letting a team shoot 66% at the rim on volume seems like a poor trade. Nearly half of Miami's shots were at the rim.

[brevity]

alreadydead.jpg

Kidding. (Kind of.)

Good analysis and responses. I do dig a deep dive on DBR, especially when it exposes easily embraceable but erroneous pet theories.

[kako]

I traveled 3000 miles to watch the game in person. I got home Sunday night, didn't watch the DVR until Monday. It's always interesting to compare what one sees with their own eyes versus what a broadcast want to show you. But for the most part, what I saw in person was the same as TV.

During the game, the TOs were obvious. But to me, it was more positioning of the UM defense and players than Duke just being careless. Sure, there were definitely examples of Duke's carelessness. But UM is well coached and has experienced players, and they took advantage of that heavily in the first half. They had quick hands and good anticipation.

The back door cuts were also obvious. Duke overplays in general. I know that K wanted Duke to play a half-step off, but it's hard to always have the pedal to the metal on D, then decide to take just a fraction off. Their big was just great at dishing out to those cuts. And our players, though mostly great on-ball defenders, aren't so great off the ball. I'm a big Griffin fan, and he's great on the ball. But he got burned for at least 2 back doors down the stretch. K did try to go zone to limit it, but UM promptly drained a 3. The next possession was back to man.

Lastly, the Canes hit some lucky, lucky shots. Too many to mention, but I'll focus on one... Granted, Roach had no business fouling on that drive in the last minute - so what if they score, Duke is still up by 1 with the ball with 30 seconds left, so they'd have to foul... it would be just on the verge of a FT game for Duke to close out. But that shot by Moore was a prayer that went into the hole as he was looking for the foul. Ugh. Conversely, we hit few lucky shots, if any. Going 0-3 at the end, only Keels hero-ball shot was a less than optimum one (looked to me like he was looking for a foul). The other two shots were pretty good, all things considered. But nothing went through the hoop, and Duke loses.

Duke will make the tourney barring some kind of Titanic-esque collapse. If they can put things right again, they will be a true contender. But the team seems out of sorts, especially Moore. Duke needs him to regain his Fall 2021 showing in order to be dominant again. I am, however, still pleased with Banchero in general. I'd just like to see the offense focus on him more often, making sure it runs through him at some point on each possession. Good things tend to happen when he has the ball. I'd also like some consistency out of Keels' shot. Roach is Roach, at this point I'm thinking one must take the good with the bad. Same goes for Williams - he will be situational, though at any point I'd like him to not have to put the ball on the floor before shooting. Griffin's energy is good, to me he's a solid 6th man. But Duke needs Moore to be Moore.

9F

[Kedsy]

Just a frustrating loss. But my autopsy reveals a few things to me:
1. It confirmed that (a) the turnovers were the key to our loss, and that (b) it was almost entirely on us.
2. The back-door cuts were frustrating, but not actually all that common in the game. Not the reason we lost.
3. The final 45 seconds was just a clinic on everything going just not quite right. I don't think we did anything particularly poorly in that sequence, it just was that nearly everything went against us that could possibly go wrong. Even Moore making a free throw would have been a better outcome, as we'd have held for the last possession and at worst gone to OT.

The good news is that unforced errors can be corrected. It don't know if it was rust, COVID fatigue, or lack of focus. But I hope it is one of the first two. If so, it's something that should improve simply with time and more practices/games. If the lack of focus, that's trickier, but probably still something the staff can cure. Ultimately still a very frustrating loss, but one that can hopefully provide really good learning opportunities about the importance of protecting the ball.

This is fabulous, CDu. Thanks.

Interesting that the successful backdoors were two against Roach and two against Griffin, but some people thought they saw both Baker and Keels get beat backdoor multiple times.

[CDu]

alreadydead.jpg

Kidding. (Kind of.)

Good analysis and responses. I do dig a deep dive on DBR, especially when it exposes easily embraceable but erroneous pet theories.

I am not above beating a dead horse . Not an alive one though.

[jimsumner]

K said after the game-and I'm paraphrasing-that Duke was too spread out on defense and wanted to compress more. Duke only played six players in the second half, three freshmen, two sophomores and a junior. I think it entirely possible that the Duke coaches were trying to implement strategies that a young team wasn't able to execute, especially a young team that had a bunch of practices canceled.

[cato]

I am not above beating a dead horse . Not an alive one though.

I’m pretty sure the advanced efficiency stats support this approach. Take what they give you, don’t force the action.

Seriously, though. Excellent deep dive and analysis. Thank you

[Nugget]

Just a frustrating loss. But my autopsy reveals a few things to me:
1. It confirmed that (a) the turnovers were the key to our loss, and that (b) it was almost entirely on us.
2. The back-door cuts were frustrating, but not actually all that common in the game. Not the reason we lost.
3. The final 45 seconds was just a clinic on everything going just not quite right. I don't think we did anything particularly poorly in that sequence, it just was that nearly everything went against us that could possibly go wrong. Even Moore making a free throw would have been a better outcome, as we'd have held for the last possession and at worst gone to OT.

Agree 100% that the (large number of basically unforced) turnovers were the primary issue. Hopefully it was a combination of Covid rust/loss of conditioning/lack of practice. But, really needs to be tightened up.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

I suspect we are unlikely to win any games with 17 turnovers.

I watched in person and haven't revisited the game to watch with replays, but it certainly felt a lot like the turnovers were sloppy offense, not stellar defense.

[jv001]

Thanks, CDu for your analysis. I did have to read it twice because I didn't read the times that Joey was burned on back door cuts, as some DBR posters
have said. I believe some people don't care for a certain Duke player and see things that are not actually there. Once again thank you for your analysis on the game.

GoDuke!