What to expect/hope for in Roach's junior season?

[CDu]

So I would like to take a look into what we might reasonably expect/hope for from Jeremy Roach as a junior. Unfortunately, we haven't had a lot of highly-recruited perimeter players return for their junior years to use as a reference. That's a bit of an understatement: Roach makes only the 3rd top-25 recruited junior perimeter guy to return for his junior season since we went all-in on the one-and-done model (the 2014-15 season). The other two were Grayson Allen and Wendell Moore. So I'm going to extend back another several years to add a couple more for points of reference (Rasheed Sulaimon and Nolan Smith). It's still a small sample size, but can give us at least a picture. And the picture? It's murky.

The good: Moore and Smith both saw big jumps from sophomore to junior year.

Soph Moore: 27.6 mpg, 9.7 ppg, 4.8 rpg, 2.7 apg, 1.2 spg, 2.0 topg, 48.1 2pt%, 30.1 3pt%, 84.8 ft%, +0.2 ORtg-DRtg, 0.104 WS/40, 2.7 BPM, 15.3 PER
Junior Moore: 33.9 mpg, 13.4 ppg, 5.3 rpg, 4.4 apg, 1.4 spg, 1.9 topg, 54.4 2pt%, 41.3 3pt%, 80.5 ft%, +22.2 ORtg-DRtg, 0.186 WS/40, 7.9 BPM, 21.4 PER

Soph Smith: 21.6 mpg, 8.4 ppg, 2.2 rpg, 1.7 apg, 0.9 spg, 1.6 topg, 46.7 2pt%, 34.6 3pt%, 84.9 ft% {advanced stats not available}
Junior Smith: 35.5 mpg, 17.4 ppg, 2.8 rpg, 3.0 apg, 1.2 spg, 1.8 topg, 46.0 2pt%, 39.2 3pt%, 76.7 ft%

Moore is sort of the best-case scenario: he not only increased his minutes and usage, but also improved his efficiency almost across the board (only his FT% dipped, but was still really good). It's really hard to see your efficiency improve with an increase in usage, but Moore managed to do it.
Smith is a different but really good scenario: his role increased substantially more than even Moore's did. His rate stats and shooting efficiency stayed similar, but he saw a ~60% increase in minutes and a huge bump in usage.

The not so good: Sulaimon and Allen regressed.

Soph Allen: 36.6 mpg, 21.6 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 3.5 apg, 1.3 spg, 2.0 topg, 50.2 2pt%, 41.7 3pt%, 83.7 ft%, +21.1 ORtg-DRtg, .217 WS/40, 9.9 BPM, 26.0 PER
Junior Allen: 29.6 mpg, 14.5 ppg, 3.7 rpg, 3.5 apg, 0.8 spg, 2.2 topg, 44.4 2pt%, 36.5 3pt%, 81.1 ft%, +11.8 ORtg-DRtg, .165 WS/40, 6.2 BPM, 19.2 PER

Soph Sulaimon: 25.6 mpg, 9.9 ppg, 2.4 rpg, 2.4 apg, 0.8 spg, 1.1 topg, 39.7 2pt%, 41.0 3pt%, 76.8 ft%, +13.7 ORtg-DRtg, .148 WS/40, 5.6 BPM, 16.6 PER
Junior Sulaimon: 19.3 mpg, 7.5 ppg, 2.0 rpg, 1.8 apg, 1.0 spg, 1.3 topg, 42.0 2pt%, 40.4 3pt%, 66.7 ft%, +7.8 ORtg-DRtg, .133 WS/40, 4.8 BPM, 15.2 PER

The good news about the bad news? Allen and Sulaimon both had some extenuating circumstances that help explain their declines. Allen's sophomore year came after some rules changes that really benefited him by getting him to the FT line more. Second he was healthier as a sophomore than as a junior, when he suffered an ankle injury that would eventually require offseason surgery. In Sulaimon's case, he's just an anomaly in general. But more specifically the arrival of Tyus Jones and the resurgence of Quinn Cook and improvements by Matt Jones made for a crowded backcourt. Second, there was clearly either a chemistry issue or a mental health situation with Sulaimon, who was dismissed from the team. There were reports of sexual assault as well, though nothing materialized criminally. In total, though, it appears clear that he was dealing with a lot more than just baskeball as a junior.

It would seem like Roach's situation at least mirrors that of Smith and Moore a bit more (or Allen's sophomore year), in that his role is set to expand next year going from a somewhat crowded perimeter picture to a very inexperienced one. Smith had a somewhat similar change, when Greg Paulus and Marty Pocius graduated, Elliot Williams transferred, and Gerald Henderson went pro, with only Scheyer, the seldom used Olek Czyz (who would transfer early in the year anyway), and the late reclassified incoming freshman Andre Dawkins there. In Moore's case, it's also similar in that we lost Steward and Goldwire and added just Keels at the guard spot.

If I had to guess, I'd suggest something along the lines of Smith's minutes, with Moore's rate stats aside from 3pt% (I think he'll be more like a 35% shooter). Something along the lines of:
35 mpg, 12-15 ppg, 4-5 apg, 2-3 topg, 50.0 2pt%, 35.0 3pt%, 80.0 ft%.

[roywhite]

If I had to guess, I'd suggest something along the lines of Smith's minutes, with Moore's rate stats aside from 3pt% (I think he'll be more like a 35% shooter). Something along the lines of:
35 mpg, 12-15 ppg, 4-5 apg, 2-3 topg, 50.0 2pt%, 35.0 3pt%, 80.0 ft%.

Good analysis. A little higher on the assists, I think. There are some dunkers on this team and Roach will be the main guy throwing it up for them.

[SkyBrickey]

If I had to guess, I'd suggest something along the lines of Smith's minutes, with Moore's rate stats aside from 3pt% (I think he'll be more like a 35% shooter). Something along the lines of:
35 mpg, 12-15 ppg, 4-5 apg, 2-3 topg, 50.0 2pt%, 35.0 3pt%, 80.0 ft%.

Great analysis. Thanks. This would be a very good stat line for Roach along with a step up in defensive pressure. We will have two other playmakers in Whitehead and Proctor, so much like this year, Roach won’t have the pressure to initiate the offense on every possession.

But we need him to continue to develop across the board, especially using the dribble to set up open looks for others, if we want to hit peak form. The great PGs drive to the rim with equal options in mind - layup, floater, dish/lob, kick out for a 3, or even dribble back out. They take what the defense gives. I’d love to see Roach reach that level of play this year. I think it’s possible.