This Week in the ACC - 1/3-1/9

[PackMan97]

Heels looked good.

I didn't realize they played. Bless their hearts.

9f

[Bay Area Duke Fan]

Louisville beats Pitt 75-72.

Jeff’s days as Pitt’s head coach are numbered.

A few years ago many folks were predicting that Capel would be K's successor.

[CDu]

UNC was without 6th man Garcia (concussion) and reserves Walton and McKoy (COVID protocols). It will interesting to see how long those guys are out.

[OldPhiKap]

UNC was without 6th man Garcia (concussion) and reserves Walton and McKoy (COVID protocols). It will interesting to see how long those guys are out.

I wish them all speedy recoveries.

I hope they lose their next 20 games.

I guess this is sort of a mixed message.

[Tooold]

Heels, although trailing most of the game, had a chance near the end but fortunately ND made their free throws. It was fun to watch the last minute! I am not sure who the announcer was, but he sure was complimentary of the UNC players, at least during the few minutes I watched. He was gushing about 3 point shooting and the improvement of certain players.

[CameronDuke]

I am not as high on UNC-CH this year as some here are. Their defense is now 79th on Kenpom.

How many teams will the ACC get into the NCAAT this year? Is it possible they get just 1? 2? 3?

[flyingdutchdevil]

I am not as high on UNC-CH this year as some here are. Their defense is now 79th on Kenpom.

How many teams will the ACC get into the NCAAT this year? Is it possible they get just 1? 2? 3?

Definitely not 1. At minimum, 2. At maximum, probably 5 (meaning a dark horse wins the ACC tournament). I'd say the 'mode' is 3 or 4, with a lean on 4.

[wilson]

...How many teams will the ACC get into the NCAAT this year? Is it possible they get just 1? 2? 3?

1 bid is effectively impossible, and I'd put the odds of 2 bids at some vanishingly small number. Right now, I would put the over/under at 3.5, pending some mystery teams' strong or weak runs through conference play and/or somebody making a surprise run at the ACCT. If I had to bet, I would bet the over:

• Duke
• unc
• Virginia Tech
• somebody from this group: Louisville, Notre Dame, Wake Forest, Virginia

I'd love to see Wake snag a bid this year. It's been a (mystifyingly) long time coming for them.
Apropos of that, I expect Joel Coliseum to be utterly rocking next Wednesday evening in one of those "Where has this performance been?" kinds of ways that we've grown so accustomed to seeing from NC State and Clemson and Virginia Tech and Miami and Georgia Tech etc. etc. etc. over the years.

[flyingdutchdevil]

1 bid is effectively impossible, and I'd put the odds of 2 bids at some vanishingly small number. Right now, I would put the over/under at 3.5, pending some mystery teams' strong or weak runs through conference play and/or somebody making a surprise run at the ACCT. If I had to bet, I would bet the over:

• Duke
• unc
• Virginia Tech
• somebody from this group: Louisville, Notre Dame, Wake Forest, Virginia

I'd love to see Wake snag a bid this year. It's been a (mystifyingly) long time coming for them.
Apropos of that, I expect Joel Coliseum to be utterly rocking next Wednesday evening in one of those "Where has this performance been?" kinds of ways that we've grown so accustomed to seeing from NC State and Clemson and Virginia Tech and Miami and Georgia Tech etc. etc. etc. over the years.

VT is 0-3 in the ACC. They are ranked highly in Kenpom, but they're record is a poor 8-6.

They will get better, but I'm not sure they are a 'certainty' for an at-large. I think Duke and UNC are guaranteed, and then, like you said, 1-2 from Louisville, ND, WF, UVA, and I'd add VT.

This is a poor conference. The WCC may get in more teams than the ACC.

[CameronDuke]

1 bid is effectively impossible, and I'd put the odds of 2 bids at some vanishingly small number. Right now, I would put the over/under at 3.5, pending some mystery teams' strong or weak runs through conference play and/or somebody making a surprise run at the ACCT. If I had to bet, I would bet the over:

• Duke
• unc
• Virginia Tech
• somebody from this group: Louisville, Notre Dame, Wake Forest, Virginia

I'd love to see Wake snag a bid this year. It's been a (mystifyingly) long time coming for them.
Apropos of that, I expect Joel Coliseum to be utterly rocking next Wednesday evening in one of those "Where has this performance been?" kinds of ways that we've grown so accustomed to seeing from NC State and Clemson and Virginia Tech and Miami and Georgia Tech etc. etc. etc. over the years.

I don’t see Virginia Tech as a lock right now. They’re 0-3 in the ACC. They do have a big game at UVa next Wednesday. If they lose that to get to 0-4, I don’t see how they can be a lock.

[wilson]

VT is 0-3 in the ACC. They are ranked highly in Kenpom, but they're record is a poor 8-6.

They will get better, but I'm not sure they are a 'certainty' for an at-large. I think Duke and UNC are guaranteed, and then, like you said, 1-2 from Louisville, ND, WF, UVA, and I'd add VT...

Good points. As I said, this would be if I had to bet, and my bet on VT would be predicated on the fact that: 1) relatively weak record notwithstanding, I've seen them play and they're a solid team, and 2) as you point out, the ACC this year is not good, so if they can more or less right the ship, they should be able to rack up another 12 wins or so (assuming they make up their postponed unc and Pitt matchups, they have 17 regular season games left), which would leave them somewhere around 20-11, good enough for an at-large bid in any normal year.

[JasonEvans]

I think Duke and UNC are guaranteed, and then, like you said, 1-2 from Louisville, ND, WF, UVA, and I'd add VT.

I'd include Clemson, FSU, and even Miami in that group of "maybe" teams from the ACC. Not saying it is likely for any of them, but it could happen. Whoever can get to 12 conference wins is in the conversation and all those teams could get there.

[flyingdutchdevil]

I'd include Clemson, FSU, and even Miami in that group of "maybe" teams from the ACC. Not saying it is likely for any of them, but it could happen. Whoever can get to 12 conference wins is in the conversation and all those teams could get there.

Yup. That 3 and 4 team making the tournament will be bubble teams and start sweating on Selection Sunday.

The NIT is gonna be a large-scale ACC Tournament...

[CDu]

I think 4 or even 5 is the most likely outcome. I think Duke is pretty close to in on merit already given their neutral-court wins over UK and Gonzaga and the close loss at OSU. Obviously they would be out if they lose out, but realistically that's not going to happen. UNC has a lot resting on their dismantling of Michigan, which is looking less impressive now than it was in December. And there are definitely questions about the defense. But the offense is legit. And, honestly, their defense is still upper-half of the conference. Only Duke and FSU have been better in conference defensively, and only Duke, Louisville, Va Tech, and FSU have been clearly better defensively over the course of the season (though Va Tech's defense has largely relied on overperforming against patsies out of conference). I think they're the second best team in the conference, which isn't saying much.

After that, I think a couple of teams will do well enough in conference to get a bid. There are very few sure things, but lots of bubble teams. Any of Clemson, Wake, Va Tech, Notre Dame, Louisville, UVa, Miami, FSU, or Syracuse could get in if they get to ~13 wins in conference, and somebody is going to get to that number. None of them have very good cases right now, but someone will get there.

[UrinalCake]

UNC is #41 in the NET and 1-4 against Q1 and Q2 opponents. We expect them to improve but I don’t think it’s a guarantee they get in. Which would break my heart….

[flyingdutchdevil]

UNC is #41 in the NET and 1-4 against Q1 and Q2 opponents. We expect them to improve but I don’t think it’s a guarantee they get in. Which would break my heart….

Anyone not named Duke has a horrible resume. But UNC has talent in a terrible ACC. And I'd like to think that more than 1 ACC team is getting in. UNC seems like the one guarantee not named Duke to make the tourney.

Now, it is entirely possible UNC implodes in conference and isn't one of the 3-4 (or 5) teams selected to dance. Which, like you mentioned, would make me shed a tear.

[CDu]

UNC is #41 in the NET and 1-4 against Q1 and Q2 opponents. We expect them to improve but I don’t think it’s a guarantee they get in. Which would break my heart….

Yeah, they are by no means a lock, or close to it. But if they don't get in, that means they failed to win 12 games. Which probably means someone else in conference wins 13+ in their place.

Basically, I think Duke and UNC can probably get in with as few as 12 conference wins (pre ACCT). For pretty much everyone else, they will probably need to get to 13 to start to feel good about their case. By the laws of math, I'd expect 3 or 4 teams to join Duke in getting enough wins to make it.

Where things might get dicey though is if the teams that get to 13 wins are teams like Miami (who has no resume out of conference and is currently WAY down in the computer rankings). Even FSU is way down in the NET and has no OOC resume to boast about. But everyone else is high enough in the NET to make a case with enough wins and/or has a nice enough OOC scalp to justify with a 13-7 conference mark.

[OldPhiKap]

UNC is #41 in the NET and 1-4 against Q1 and Q2 opponents. We expect them to improve but I don’t think it’s a guarantee they get in. Which would break my heart….

I, for one, am a big fan of the new coaching regime.

[Tooold]

If the Cheats not making the tourney means the ACC only gets one team in, then I can accept that.

[chrishoke]

UNC was without 6th man...

So was Notre Dame. Students were not there to support the Irish - the arena was dead.