Originally Posted by
CDu
Well, after an unexpectedly long layoff due to a COVID outbreak, the team is hopefully about to kick off the 2022 portion of the schedule. We survived a fairly tough nonconference schedule with just the one heartbreaking loss on the road to OSU. With that, in the spirit of the phase posts of yore, here are some things to keep an eye on as the team moves into the meat of the conference schedule.
COVID health: Was this the last of the COVID outbreaks for the team? We certainly hope so, first and foremost for the health of the team and staff and those around them, but also for the health of the program. Will there be any lingering effects early in January in terms of the team's energy levels? Will anyone continue to miss time due to extended effects of COVID? Fingers crossed that this outbreak was the last we deal with, and that the team recovers well.
AJ Griffin: The holiday and COVID break came at a bad time for Griffin, who was really starting to emerge. After playing just 2 minutes in the loss to OSU (easy to wonder if he might have helped a bit with avoiding the foul trouble that ultimately did us in in that one), he has really come on strong. Over his last 4 games, he's averaging 21.3 mpg, 12 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 2 apg, 1 bpg, while shooting a blistering 65.4 fg%, 50.0 3pt%, and 100.0 FT%. He's bombing 3s, hitting midrange shots, finishing in traffic. It's been a really impressive stretch. And it hasn't just been against patsies. He was instrumental in the second-half surge to rout Va Tech. So obviously it will be interesting/exciting to see if that form carries over into 2022. But what I'm also interested to see is if he earns more time at SF. Most of his time to date has been as the backup PF, which means his minutes are limited: we have a (ahem) pretty decent option at starting PF, and two centers. So Griffin is stuck backing up Banchero and getting minutes whenever we go "small" with Banchero at C. Will we start to see Griffin absorb some minutes at SF too? That's the main avenue I see to him getting 25+ mpg.
Mark Williams: It's been no secret that Williams has had a polarizing season so far. He's been better on average than he was last year (almost double the block rate, a better rebound rate, and a HUGE improvement in turnover rate. But between the change in offensive focus, his limited variety of skills, and more recently Griffin's emergence, it hasn't been a breakout season for Williams. The offense is built around our perimeter ballhandlers, which is our big advantage (we have 3-4 guys at any time who can score off the dribble). And that's great, but it does marginalize Williams offensively. And we've faced a bunch of smallball teams in the preseason, and our first ACC game was against a smallball-style (not actually small, but stylistically small) ACC team. As such, Williams has been fairly quiet. He's basically a situationally impact player: a guy who can be dominant in certain matchups, but is limited otherwise. Because the offense doesn't typically need him, if the defensive matchup isn't right, he's just not critical all the time. But when we do need him (see Gonzaga), he's typically there. Our schedule doesn't present many matchups where the opponent will go small for long stretches - at least not to their advantage. But still, I'd expect Williams' impact to be more situational. What I'm interested to see is whether we introduce any pick and roll action to generate lob opportunities for Williams. As we start to hit more 3s, the paint should open up a bit more, and those lobs may become a part of the offense. Beyond that? I just want to see Williams continue to be effective in the minutes that he has, and have those impact games when needed.
Trevor Keels Shooting: there has been some handwringing about our shooting, and understandably so. We were a mediocre 3pt shooting team last year, and we lost our best shooter in Matthew Hurt. And we've thrown up some clunkers so far this year, especially to start the season. But for the year so far, we're at 36.7%, which would be our best % since 2018. Can we start to see the team settle in as a decent 3pt shooting team against better competition? Griffin has been terrific from 3, and he's starting to see more minutes. Moore has upped his 3pt shooting to 41%. Baker continues to be a solid 3pt shooter off the bench. Roach has gotten up to mediocrity from 3. Banchero is mediocre overall from 3 but good for a big. But our most prolific shooter (Keels) has also been our worst percentage shooter among regular attempters. So Keels is likely to be the barometer for the team's 3pt shooting. If he starts making them at an above-average rate, our 3pt shooting likely becomes a strength. If he continues to struggle, we'll likely continue to be an up and down team from 3. Interestingly, Keels is profiling very similarly to the guy he replaced (DJ Steward) on the offensive end. Keels has been much better defensively, of course, and his defensive intensity has been a big part of our success. But for a guy with a reputation as a shooter in high school, Keels has struggled from 3. And interestingly, he's been fairly consistent. After starting 2-10 in his first two games, he's been at 33% over the last 10 and 33% over the last 4. That's remarkable consistency, as individual 3pt shooting is generally much more streaky in nature. But I'd like to see him shoot in the 35-40% range in January. Given his shot volume, I'm led to believe that the staff views him as a good shooter. So hopefully the results start to match the reputation and volume.
Jeremy Roach Play: Roach has been better this year than last year. But only so much. He's gotten much better defensively, but the offense hasn't made the jump yet. His 3pt shooting is now adequate (35%), and he's cut down a bit on the turnovers such that he now has a 2:1 assist:turnover ratio. But his midrange shot has really fallen off this year (he was an elite 56% in the midrange last year, just 19% this year) and he still struggles at the rim. I don't have any expectation that he'll suddenly start averaging 5+ assists per game, and honestly we don't need that from him. But what I'd like to see is that 3pt percentage continue to rise into the 37% range and the 2pt shooting to improve. If he can do that and continue to play solid defense and provide good ballhandling and decent distribution, that's what we need. If he can do more than that? Even better. I'd like to see him get more confident and effective at attacking off the dribble, as he's got the quickness and ballhandling to do it. And that would unlock a bit more of the value of Williams and John offensively as roll men as well. But, again, that's more of an ideal wish list than a necessity, as the offense is likely to continue to run through Moore and Banchero primarily. It's just an area in which I see room for growth for the team.
Role Players Playing Roles: Mainly, this comes down to just 2 names: Baker and John. Those are the two main guys we'll see, and they will be used situationally. For Baker, he's currently the first guard/wing off the bench, playing SF. That role might get squeezed if Griffin starts seeing more time at SF, but Baker's main role is to knock down open 3s. If he can continue to be a 40+% 3pt shooter, that is a job well done. Be ready to shoot, and knock them down when you shoot them. That's a hard task in limited minutes, but so far this year he's been up to the task. Keep doing it! For John, he's likely to see a small role moving forward. He's there as Mark Williams insurance. But as long as Banchero and Griffin are both playing 20+ mpg, there aren't going to be a ton of minutes for John. He just has to be ready to come in, set screens, attack the offensive glass, and play adequate post defense. I'd like to see him rebound better, but that's never been a strength of his game. But really, he's not likely to see more than about 8-12 mpg in ACC play. So give it your all, don't rack up too many fouls, and do as much of the little stuff as you can. After that, Jones and Blakes will get spot minutes as needed. Jones is a scrappy guy with a very good 3pt shot. Blakes is an athletic and strong defensive-minded player who is shooting better from 3 than expected. Ideally, neither guy is playing a major role, as we appear to have a clear top-8 at this point. But they just need to be ready whenever foul trouble or injury (hope not) pushes them into action, and give it their all for the 1-2 minutes that they are in there.
Wendell Moore PoY Watch: Moore has been an absolute revelation this year. Physically and dribbling-wise, he reminds a bit of Chris Carrawell. And he's putting up a senior-Carrawell-esque season this year. Actually, that's a bit of a disservice to Moore, whose numbers so far have been even BETTER than Carrawell's numbers in his amazing senior year. Averaging 17, 5.7, and 5 with a nearly 3:1 assist:turnover ratio, shooting 58.6% from the field and 41% from 3. The junior captain has made the leap. Can he continue his amazing season through January and establish himself as the ACC PoY frontrunner? I could say more, but there really isn't much to say other than that he's been truly amazing, we're lucky to have him, and I hope it continues. And a strong January would put him in position to earn some national honors as well.
Banchero PoY/FoY Watch: Okay, to be fair, Banchero probably has the ACC freshman of the year award locked up already. Like Moore, he's been amazing. He is leading the team in points and total rebounds, and is clearly the go-to guy on offense. But his defense has been good, and he's shown a terrific shooting touch. He's hitting 82.5% from the FT line and hits the midrange jumper at an absurd rate. He's starting to show a bit of the passing ability too, although that's one area for improvement. Barring injury, I can't imagine he doesn't take home at least the ACC freshman of the year award. He should also make 1st team All-ACC, and has a decent shot at some national honors as well as being possibly the biggest threat to Moore for ACC PoY. What I'm looking to see is him start to use his size a bit more. He's shown a terrific finesse game, but I want to see him start punishing smaller defenders inside a bit more. Draw some more fouls, get some easy buckets. As great as he's been in the midrange game, that's a risky play to rely on. Admittedly, that's a minor quibble though, as he's been an elite player for us. He had some big shoes to fill in replacing Hurt, but he's more than done so to this point.
Defense: For the most part (specifically, 8 of our 12 games), our defense has been elite. We don't foul, we block a good percentage of shots, we contest 3s, and we force a decent number of turnovers. Aside from avoiding fouls we've not done any one thing at an elite level, but the aggregate has been pretty good. That being said, there have still been leaks. WE've had two mediocre performances (Va Tech, Campbell) and two awful performances (Citadel and App State). Will we be able to continue to smother opponents the way we have, or will teams start to identify wrinkles that expose some of our limitations? The overplay on the perimeter does open up the opportunity to beat us off the dribble, for example. Can we start to see more turnovers from our pressure defense? Will our pressure start resulting in fouls being called? And can we start to rebound a bit better?
Offense: It's interesting to compare our offense with our defense. On average, our offense has been better than our defense. But it has not been as consistent. Whereas the defense has been consistently in the 75-90 range of adjusted efficiency, the offense has been more all over the map. Aside from the Army game, we've had a generally good to elite offense, with the low end being just okay (see Campbell, Lafayette, OSU, Elon) and the upper end being uber-elite (Citadel, App State, Va Tech. There hasn't been a ton of consistency to how we generate our good offensive games, but on average we do everything well except offensive rebound and draw fouls. We are elite at not turning the ball over and at shooting 2s, and pretty good at shooting 3s and not getting blocked. The question is whether we can start to exploit our talented ballhandling and generate more FT attempts. So far, that's been a glaring limitation of the offense, and it really shouldn't be. Banchero, Keels, and Moore should all be good at drawing fouls off the dribble. But for whatever reason, we aren't forcing the issue. Not that this has been a problem necessarily; we're still a really good offense. But getting to the line more would help to raise the floor for our offense just a bit more.
Maintaining the Intensity: So, one of the biggest challenges for every young team is bringing the necessary intensity and focus every night. In the preseason, you have a bunch of easier matchups, and so maintaining that high level of focus isn't as critical. But in conference play, virtually every game is losable. We saw the team run out of steam against OSU after thoroughly dominating the first 25-30 minutes. They lost their focus and lost their poise, and it cost them what should have been another marquee win. In the ACC, every team will be geared up to play Duke, so we'll need to bring a high level of intensity and focus every night. Can the team start to find that rhythm and intensity? And can they maintain it as they get into the late-January grind?
Road Play: The other big change that comes with conference play is the introduction of true road games. On this team, only Moore, Baker, and John have any real experience in true road games at the college level. Roach and Williams got a hint of it last year, but not the full environment. We were fortunate to get a true road game in the ACC/Big-10 Challenge, albeit it resulted in the aforementioned loss. Will that game serve as sufficient prep for what's to come? Our first road game is likely to be Wake Forest, who has been decent this year but has struggled in their last two games. Then we get FSU who has been surprisingly mediocre so far. Both will be tough tests, and they represent (on paper at least) two of our toughest remaining games. Surviving those two will go a long way towards determining whether we take home our first regular season ACC title in over a decade.
As of now, we still have a game tomorrow night. Let's hope that continues to be true, and that we have a bunch of games the rest of this month. And let's hope we start piling up the wins too!