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  1. #41
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    Washington, DC area
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    Yeah, I suppose this is the key point. But I'm not sure what percentage of Duke fans realize how much positive value he brings. I was looking for post up numbers and shot charts (couldn't find any) and came across RealGM's college stat portal.

    According to RealGM, Mark Williams is

    #1 in the ACC in PER,
    #2 in the ACC in oRating,
    #1 in the ACC in dRating,
    #2 in the ACC in eFG%,
    #3 in the ACC in TS%,
    #1 in the ACC in OR%,
    #5 in the ACC in total rebounding% (#3 in rebounds per 40 minutes),
    #2 in the ACC in block% (#1 in blocks per 40 minutes),
    #4 in the ACC in assist/TO ratio (!).

    Even his rankings in points per 40 (#23 in the ACC, #5 among ACC centers) and steal% (#42 in the ACC, #4 among ACC centers) are pretty strong. Whether or not he has room to improve, he's having a really good season.
    Shh! He's our secret weapon!

    -jk

  2. #42
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    Nov 2007
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    Quote Originally Posted by -jk View Post
    Shh! He's our secret weapon!

    -jk
    Hopefully the trend continues once we hit ACC play...

  3. #43
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    NC
    So far the team has been rusty in its return from their COVID disruption. Here's how the guys have performed so far:

    Banchero: 35.5 mpg, 18.5 ppg, 9 rpg, 3 apg, 2.5 spg, 1.5 bpg, 3 topg, 55.6 fg%, 40.0 3pt%, 65.2 ft%. Banchero has been a monster this season. The beginning of 2022 is no different. If anything, I'd like him to be even more "selfish" and dominate more of each game. He's clearly the best player on the floor every time he steps on a college floor right now.

    Moore: 36.0 mpg, 10.0 ppg, 7.0 rpg, 4.5 apg, 4.5 topg, 30.4 fg%, 14.3 3pt%, 71.4 ft%. Yikes. It has been a rough couple of games for Moore. He did play excellent defense in the Ga Tech game, but his shot has really struggled out of the gate in 2022. Hopefully this is a residue of COVID and nothing more. But we'll definitely want him returning to the ACC PoY candidate he was before the COVID break. And soon. The turnovers and the shooting percentages need to be better.

    Williams: 24.0 mpg, 11.0 ppg, 10.5 rpg, 4.5 bpg, 62.5 fg%, 66.7 ft%. As expected, as we have gotten into the part of the schedule where teams play more size, Williams has seen a larger role. And in that larger role, he's been a monster. He's not likely to ever be a go-to presence on offense, but he's getting it done.

    Griffin: 23.5 mpg, 11 ppg, 6 rpg, 1 apg, 50.0 fg%, 42.9 3pt%, 55.6 ft%. Griffin has been markedly consistent in his two games this calendar year. The FT% needs to get back where it is supposed to be, but he's doing the stuff expected in the minutes he's gotten. Can he show enough awareness and mobility to defend smaller players? If so, we can truly have the option of going big (with him at the 3) and going "small" (with him at the 4). Right now, we are only able to do the latter.

    Keels: 36.0 mpg, 9.5 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 2.0 apg, 28.6 fg%, 25.0 3pt%, 100.0 ft%. Keels' shot from the field is currently AWOL. It would be fabulous if it came back to him. He does a lot of things well. Unfortunately, the thing he was expected to do best has gone missing this season, and even moreso in 2022. I don't think he takes bad shots, and clearly he must make them in practice if the staff lets him shoot so often. But they just aren't going in.

    Roach: 34.0 mpg, 9.0 ppg, 3.5 apg, 2.0 rpg, 2.0 topg, 30.8 fg%, 25.0 3pt%, 81.8 ft%. Ditto for Roach. I feel like Roach is close to tapping into the game that he displayed in high school. But for a smaller player the margin for error between "explosive and dynamic off the dribble" and "dribbles himself into trouble" is small, and right now Roach is still falling a bit too much on the latter side rather than the former.

    Baker: 6.5 mpg, 1.5 ppg, 0.5 rpg, 100.0 fg%, 100.0 3pt%. The emergence of Griffin combined with having faced two teams with athletic wings has resulted in just spot minutes for Baker. He has just 13 total minutes, 1 FG attempt, and 1 rebound in that time, to go with 4 fouls. There will be games where he is useful again, but the last two haven't been examples of this. Still very much a situational player.

    John: 3.5 mpg, 1.0 ppg, 1.0 rpg, 0.5 bpg. Similar story for John. Griffin emerging and Williams playing well means minimal minutes for John. His per-minute numbers are right on line with his norms. He just doesn't play much.

    Will check back in early next week to see where things stand. Hopefully Roach, Moore, and Keels see an uptick in their shooting. And with that uptick, we hopefully see a pair of wins added to the resume.

  4. #44
    Quote Originally Posted by Kedsy View Post
    Yeah, I suppose this is the key point. But I'm not sure what percentage of Duke fans realize how much positive value he brings. I was looking for post up numbers and shot charts (couldn't find any) and came across RealGM's college stat portal.

    According to RealGM, Mark Williams is

    #1 in the ACC in PER,
    #2 in the ACC in oRating,
    #1 in the ACC in dRating,
    #2 in the ACC in eFG%,
    #3 in the ACC in TS%,
    #1 in the ACC in OR%,
    #5 in the ACC in total rebounding% (#3 in rebounds per 40 minutes),
    #2 in the ACC in block% (#1 in blocks per 40 minutes),
    #4 in the ACC in assist/TO ratio (!).

    Even his rankings in points per 40 (#23 in the ACC, #5 among ACC centers) and steal% (#42 in the ACC, #4 among ACC centers) are pretty strong. Whether or not he has room to improve, he's having a really good season.
    There's a lot of talk of offense on this thread, but honestly the thing I'd like to see him work the most on is judgment on when to go for blocks or not. I think he's just a little bit off from the ideal amount. His block stats (and I assume "altered shots" that don't make it into the box score) are fantastic but I think it ends up hurting things like our defensive rebounding just a little more than it has to. Then again, Coach K's style is to not really emphasize defensive rebounds over aggressive defense, so maybe I just have to live with it.

    All the said, Mark has been very good.

  5. #45
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    Feb 2007
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    Los Angeles
    Quote Originally Posted by Wander View Post
    There's a lot of talk of offense on this thread, but honestly the thing I'd like to see him work the most on is judgment on when to go for blocks or not. I think he's just a little bit off from the ideal amount. His block stats (and I assume "altered shots" that don't make it into the box score) are fantastic but I think it ends up hurting things like our defensive rebounding just a little more than it has to. Then again, Coach K's style is to not really emphasize defensive rebounds over aggressive defense, so maybe I just have to live with it.

    All the said, Mark has been very good.
    Plus, there were a number of times in the Miami game (and earlier ones too but I noticed it even more vs the Canes) where they would get into the lane looking to finish either at the rim or with a short shot in the lane, only to see Big Mark looming there ready to swat. So they wisely either dribbled or passed it out. Obviously this doesn’t count as a block or an alter, but Mark’s presence absolutely influenced the possession in a way very favorable for Duke.

  6. #46
    Quote Originally Posted by Wander View Post
    There's a lot of talk of offense on this thread, but honestly the thing I'd like to see him work the most on is judgment on when to go for blocks or not. I think he's just a little bit off from the ideal amount. His block stats (and I assume "altered shots" that don't make it into the box score) are fantastic but I think it ends up hurting things like our defensive rebounding just a little more than it has to. Then again, Coach K's style is to not really emphasize defensive rebounds over aggressive defense, so maybe I just have to live with it.

    All the said, Mark has been very good.
    Yeah, I agree. After two good defensive rebounding games in our last two, Mark has a 19.5% DR% for the season. That's adequate but for a guy his size could be better. For comparison's sake, Christian Laettner had a 19.5% DR% as a senior in 1992; Carlos Boozer had a 19.5% DR% as a junior in 2002; Shelden Williams had a 19.9% DR% as a freshman in 2003; Elton Brand had a 20.5% DR% in 1999. But our top defensive rebounding centers were in the 23% to 26% range (the Duke "record" in this stat (since 1987 when they started keeping track of ORs and DRs) is 26.5% by Mason Plumlee in 2012).

    That said, take a look at our team DR% in the six games this season Mark Williams played the least:

    Code:
    opponent	MW mins	team DR%
    Campbell	6	61.5%
    Va Tech		12	66.7%
    Elon		14	83.3%
    Kentucky	18	58.7%
    SC St		20	61.1%
    Citadel		20	77.8%
    And now, our team DR% in the six games this season Mark Williams played the most:

    Code:
    	
    opponent	MW mins	team DR%
    Gonzaga		28	75.0%
    Miami		27	75.6%
    App St		24	63.9%
    Army		22	86.1%
    Lafayette	22	79.5%
    Ohio St		22	79.4%
    Obviously there's not much difference between 20 and 22 minutes, and there are outliers in both charts. Our defensive rebounding in these games could be affected by many other factors besides Mark Williams, and it might be a bit of a chicken and egg thing going on (i.e., Mark played fewer minutes in games in which he was less effective). But overall, if Mark's presence in a game has a bearing on our defensive rebounding, it's more likely that it helps than hurts.

  7. #47
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    Nov 2009
    A.J. Griffin and Joey Baker need to get more shots from deep and Keels needs less.

    Baker is just 1-1 from 3 in ACC games and Keels is 4-16. Griffin is 4-10.

    It’s hard to see a senior captain only get 7 minutes per game in conference games and just one 3-point attempt in 3 conference games thus far, especially when overall on the season he’s shooting 16-38 (42.1%) from deep. Those are sniper numbers.

  8. #48
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    Well, after an unexpectedly long layoff due to a COVID outbreak, the team is hopefully about to kick off the 2022 portion of the schedule. We survived a fairly tough nonconference schedule with just the one heartbreaking loss on the road to OSU. With that, in the spirit of the phase posts of yore, here are some things to keep an eye on as the team moves into the meat of the conference schedule.

    COVID health: Was this the last of the COVID outbreaks for the team? We certainly hope so, first and foremost for the health of the team and staff and those around them, but also for the health of the program. Will there be any lingering effects early in January in terms of the team's energy levels? Will anyone continue to miss time due to extended effects of COVID? Fingers crossed that this outbreak was the last we deal with, and that the team recovers well.

    AJ Griffin: The holiday and COVID break came at a bad time for Griffin, who was really starting to emerge. After playing just 2 minutes in the loss to OSU (easy to wonder if he might have helped a bit with avoiding the foul trouble that ultimately did us in in that one), he has really come on strong. Over his last 4 games, he's averaging 21.3 mpg, 12 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 2 apg, 1 bpg, while shooting a blistering 65.4 fg%, 50.0 3pt%, and 100.0 FT%. He's bombing 3s, hitting midrange shots, finishing in traffic. It's been a really impressive stretch. And it hasn't just been against patsies. He was instrumental in the second-half surge to rout Va Tech. So obviously it will be interesting/exciting to see if that form carries over into 2022. But what I'm also interested to see is if he earns more time at SF. Most of his time to date has been as the backup PF, which means his minutes are limited: we have a (ahem) pretty decent option at starting PF, and two centers. So Griffin is stuck backing up Banchero and getting minutes whenever we go "small" with Banchero at C. Will we start to see Griffin absorb some minutes at SF too? That's the main avenue I see to him getting 25+ mpg.

    Mark Williams: It's been no secret that Williams has had a polarizing season so far. He's been better on average than he was last year (almost double the block rate, a better rebound rate, and a HUGE improvement in turnover rate. But between the change in offensive focus, his limited variety of skills, and more recently Griffin's emergence, it hasn't been a breakout season for Williams. The offense is built around our perimeter ballhandlers, which is our big advantage (we have 3-4 guys at any time who can score off the dribble). And that's great, but it does marginalize Williams offensively. And we've faced a bunch of smallball teams in the preseason, and our first ACC game was against a smallball-style (not actually small, but stylistically small) ACC team. As such, Williams has been fairly quiet. He's basically a situationally impact player: a guy who can be dominant in certain matchups, but is limited otherwise. Because the offense doesn't typically need him, if the defensive matchup isn't right, he's just not critical all the time. But when we do need him (see Gonzaga), he's typically there. Our schedule doesn't present many matchups where the opponent will go small for long stretches - at least not to their advantage. But still, I'd expect Williams' impact to be more situational. What I'm interested to see is whether we introduce any pick and roll action to generate lob opportunities for Williams. As we start to hit more 3s, the paint should open up a bit more, and those lobs may become a part of the offense. Beyond that? I just want to see Williams continue to be effective in the minutes that he has, and have those impact games when needed.

    Trevor Keels Shooting: there has been some handwringing about our shooting, and understandably so. We were a mediocre 3pt shooting team last year, and we lost our best shooter in Matthew Hurt. And we've thrown up some clunkers so far this year, especially to start the season. But for the year so far, we're at 36.7%, which would be our best % since 2018. Can we start to see the team settle in as a decent 3pt shooting team against better competition? Griffin has been terrific from 3, and he's starting to see more minutes. Moore has upped his 3pt shooting to 41%. Baker continues to be a solid 3pt shooter off the bench. Roach has gotten up to mediocrity from 3. Banchero is mediocre overall from 3 but good for a big. But our most prolific shooter (Keels) has also been our worst percentage shooter among regular attempters. So Keels is likely to be the barometer for the team's 3pt shooting. If he starts making them at an above-average rate, our 3pt shooting likely becomes a strength. If he continues to struggle, we'll likely continue to be an up and down team from 3. Interestingly, Keels is profiling very similarly to the guy he replaced (DJ Steward) on the offensive end. Keels has been much better defensively, of course, and his defensive intensity has been a big part of our success. But for a guy with a reputation as a shooter in high school, Keels has struggled from 3. And interestingly, he's been fairly consistent. After starting 2-10 in his first two games, he's been at 33% over the last 10 and 33% over the last 4. That's remarkable consistency, as individual 3pt shooting is generally much more streaky in nature. But I'd like to see him shoot in the 35-40% range in January. Given his shot volume, I'm led to believe that the staff views him as a good shooter. So hopefully the results start to match the reputation and volume.

    Jeremy Roach Play: Roach has been better this year than last year. But only so much. He's gotten much better defensively, but the offense hasn't made the jump yet. His 3pt shooting is now adequate (35%), and he's cut down a bit on the turnovers such that he now has a 2:1 assist:turnover ratio. But his midrange shot has really fallen off this year (he was an elite 56% in the midrange last year, just 19% this year) and he still struggles at the rim. I don't have any expectation that he'll suddenly start averaging 5+ assists per game, and honestly we don't need that from him. But what I'd like to see is that 3pt percentage continue to rise into the 37% range and the 2pt shooting to improve. If he can do that and continue to play solid defense and provide good ballhandling and decent distribution, that's what we need. If he can do more than that? Even better. I'd like to see him get more confident and effective at attacking off the dribble, as he's got the quickness and ballhandling to do it. And that would unlock a bit more of the value of Williams and John offensively as roll men as well. But, again, that's more of an ideal wish list than a necessity, as the offense is likely to continue to run through Moore and Banchero primarily. It's just an area in which I see room for growth for the team.

    Role Players Playing Roles: Mainly, this comes down to just 2 names: Baker and John. Those are the two main guys we'll see, and they will be used situationally. For Baker, he's currently the first guard/wing off the bench, playing SF. That role might get squeezed if Griffin starts seeing more time at SF, but Baker's main role is to knock down open 3s. If he can continue to be a 40+% 3pt shooter, that is a job well done. Be ready to shoot, and knock them down when you shoot them. That's a hard task in limited minutes, but so far this year he's been up to the task. Keep doing it! For John, he's likely to see a small role moving forward. He's there as Mark Williams insurance. But as long as Banchero and Griffin are both playing 20+ mpg, there aren't going to be a ton of minutes for John. He just has to be ready to come in, set screens, attack the offensive glass, and play adequate post defense. I'd like to see him rebound better, but that's never been a strength of his game. But really, he's not likely to see more than about 8-12 mpg in ACC play. So give it your all, don't rack up too many fouls, and do as much of the little stuff as you can. After that, Jones and Blakes will get spot minutes as needed. Jones is a scrappy guy with a very good 3pt shot. Blakes is an athletic and strong defensive-minded player who is shooting better from 3 than expected. Ideally, neither guy is playing a major role, as we appear to have a clear top-8 at this point. But they just need to be ready whenever foul trouble or injury (hope not) pushes them into action, and give it their all for the 1-2 minutes that they are in there.

    Wendell Moore PoY Watch: Moore has been an absolute revelation this year. Physically and dribbling-wise, he reminds a bit of Chris Carrawell. And he's putting up a senior-Carrawell-esque season this year. Actually, that's a bit of a disservice to Moore, whose numbers so far have been even BETTER than Carrawell's numbers in his amazing senior year. Averaging 17, 5.7, and 5 with a nearly 3:1 assist:turnover ratio, shooting 58.6% from the field and 41% from 3. The junior captain has made the leap. Can he continue his amazing season through January and establish himself as the ACC PoY frontrunner? I could say more, but there really isn't much to say other than that he's been truly amazing, we're lucky to have him, and I hope it continues. And a strong January would put him in position to earn some national honors as well.

    Banchero PoY/FoY Watch: Okay, to be fair, Banchero probably has the ACC freshman of the year award locked up already. Like Moore, he's been amazing. He is leading the team in points and total rebounds, and is clearly the go-to guy on offense. But his defense has been good, and he's shown a terrific shooting touch. He's hitting 82.5% from the FT line and hits the midrange jumper at an absurd rate. He's starting to show a bit of the passing ability too, although that's one area for improvement. Barring injury, I can't imagine he doesn't take home at least the ACC freshman of the year award. He should also make 1st team All-ACC, and has a decent shot at some national honors as well as being possibly the biggest threat to Moore for ACC PoY. What I'm looking to see is him start to use his size a bit more. He's shown a terrific finesse game, but I want to see him start punishing smaller defenders inside a bit more. Draw some more fouls, get some easy buckets. As great as he's been in the midrange game, that's a risky play to rely on. Admittedly, that's a minor quibble though, as he's been an elite player for us. He had some big shoes to fill in replacing Hurt, but he's more than done so to this point.

    Defense: For the most part (specifically, 8 of our 12 games), our defense has been elite. We don't foul, we block a good percentage of shots, we contest 3s, and we force a decent number of turnovers. Aside from avoiding fouls we've not done any one thing at an elite level, but the aggregate has been pretty good. That being said, there have still been leaks. WE've had two mediocre performances (Va Tech, Campbell) and two awful performances (Citadel and App State). Will we be able to continue to smother opponents the way we have, or will teams start to identify wrinkles that expose some of our limitations? The overplay on the perimeter does open up the opportunity to beat us off the dribble, for example. Can we start to see more turnovers from our pressure defense? Will our pressure start resulting in fouls being called? And can we start to rebound a bit better?

    Offense: It's interesting to compare our offense with our defense. On average, our offense has been better than our defense. But it has not been as consistent. Whereas the defense has been consistently in the 75-90 range of adjusted efficiency, the offense has been more all over the map. Aside from the Army game, we've had a generally good to elite offense, with the low end being just okay (see Campbell, Lafayette, OSU, Elon) and the upper end being uber-elite (Citadel, App State, Va Tech. There hasn't been a ton of consistency to how we generate our good offensive games, but on average we do everything well except offensive rebound and draw fouls. We are elite at not turning the ball over and at shooting 2s, and pretty good at shooting 3s and not getting blocked. The question is whether we can start to exploit our talented ballhandling and generate more FT attempts. So far, that's been a glaring limitation of the offense, and it really shouldn't be. Banchero, Keels, and Moore should all be good at drawing fouls off the dribble. But for whatever reason, we aren't forcing the issue. Not that this has been a problem necessarily; we're still a really good offense. But getting to the line more would help to raise the floor for our offense just a bit more.

    Maintaining the Intensity: So, one of the biggest challenges for every young team is bringing the necessary intensity and focus every night. In the preseason, you have a bunch of easier matchups, and so maintaining that high level of focus isn't as critical. But in conference play, virtually every game is losable. We saw the team run out of steam against OSU after thoroughly dominating the first 25-30 minutes. They lost their focus and lost their poise, and it cost them what should have been another marquee win. In the ACC, every team will be geared up to play Duke, so we'll need to bring a high level of intensity and focus every night. Can the team start to find that rhythm and intensity? And can they maintain it as they get into the late-January grind?

    Road Play: The other big change that comes with conference play is the introduction of true road games. On this team, only Moore, Baker, and John have any real experience in true road games at the college level. Roach and Williams got a hint of it last year, but not the full environment. We were fortunate to get a true road game in the ACC/Big-10 Challenge, albeit it resulted in the aforementioned loss. Will that game serve as sufficient prep for what's to come? Our first road game is likely to be Wake Forest, who has been decent this year but has struggled in their last two games. Then we get FSU who has been surprisingly mediocre so far. Both will be tough tests, and they represent (on paper at least) two of our toughest remaining games. Surviving those two will go a long way towards determining whether we take home our first regular season ACC title in over a decade.

    As of now, we still have a game tomorrow night. Let's hope that continues to be true, and that we have a bunch of games the rest of this month. And let's hope we start piling up the wins too!
    Thanks for this! Great summary of where we would love to see progress and development. I am keen on seeing a good 8-man rotation (2015 proved that 8 is enough), which should help with consistency of energy and intensity. Also, in crunch time who will get the critical basket for us? Dell? Paolo? I imagine we will be in a lot of close battles and will need our best player(s) to win games for us.

  9. #49
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    It is tough to be elite at blocking shots and defensive rebounding. Usually a guy who is elite at one is not as strong at the other. There are exceptions of course. But generally speaking, if you are going after blocks, you are probably not positioning for rebounds.

    Williams is, of course, ultra-elite at blocks. His block % is a comically high 15.4% (~8% is terrific; Sheldon Williams never topped 8.0%). So being just solid at defensive rebounding is not overly surprising.

  10. #50
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    scottdude8 is offline Moderator, Contributor, Zoubek disciple, and resident Wolverine
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    Quote Originally Posted by CameronDuke View Post
    A.J. Griffin and Joey Baker need to get more shots from deep and Keels needs less.

    Baker is just 1-1 from 3 in ACC games and Keels is 4-16. Griffin is 4-10.

    It’s hard to see a senior captain only get 7 minutes per game in conference games and just one 3-point attempt in 3 conference games thus far, especially when overall on the season he’s shooting 16-38 (42.1%) from deep. Those are sniper numbers.
    I'm trying not to judge anything from the past two games too harshly because we quite simply don't know the effects of the COVID pause. Maybe Joey was hit particularly hard by COVID and is having a harder time getting his conditioning back, maybe it's taking him some time to get his shot back in practice... who knows. I think we need a larger sample size before we judge.
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  11. #51
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    Quote Originally Posted by scottdude8 View Post
    I'm trying not to judge anything from the past two games too harshly because we quite simply don't know the effects of the COVID pause. Maybe Joey was hit particularly hard by COVID and is having a harder time getting his conditioning back, maybe it's taking him some time to get his shot back in practice... who knows. I think we need a larger sample size before we judge.
    And I still think that too frequently Joey is not ready to shoot when the ball is passed to him. He's also using the pump fake too often -- seems like most times he receives a pass now he is pump faking instead of just going up with the shot. Then the opportunity is gone. Find the gap in the defense, put your hands up in a catching position, catch, and fire. To me, that's when he's at his best, and what we need most from him.

  12. #52
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    Quote Originally Posted by tommy View Post
    And I still think that too frequently Joey is not ready to shoot when the ball is passed to him. He's also using the pump fake too often -- seems like most times he receives a pass now he is pump faking instead of just going up with the shot. Then the opportunity is gone. Find the gap in the defense, put your hands up in a catching position, catch, and fire. To me, that's when he's at his best, and what we need most from him.
    That does happen sometimes with him, but in the limited action he’s seen in conference games, he also has developed a decent game driving to the rim and either finishing or dishing off and finding teammates with good passes for high percentage shots. He adds instant offense to this team when he’s in. He is a liability defensively still but you can’t question the guy is a sniper.

  13. #53
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    Quote Originally Posted by CameronDuke View Post
    That does happen sometimes with him, but in the limited action he’s seen in conference games, he also has developed a decent game driving to the rim and either finishing or dishing off and finding teammates with good passes for high percentage shots. He adds instant offense to this team when he’s in. He is a liability defensively still but you can’t question the guy is a sniper.
    Eh, he has 0 assists in conference play. All of his assists have come against teams outside the top-100. In conference play, he has handled the ball fairly little. He's scored 6 points in 21 minutes. Small sample size of course, (one layup, one 3, one FT). But he's not been terribly impactful in ACC play. Twice as many fouls (4) as FG attempts.

    That said, he IS a great shooter. And in the right matchups, he can be a weapon. Maybe this is one of those games, as Wake doesn't have a ton of athletes who beat you off the dribble. Certainly he's a threat against Syracuse. But against teams with dynamic athletes/ballhandlers, he's probably not going to see much run.

  14. #54
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    We consolidated the blowout road win over Wake with a blowout home win over NC State. Next week features a pair of name programs who are struggling this year. As for this past week:

    Williams was solid against Wake, but was a superstar against State. For the week, he averaged 12.5 ppg, 9 rpg, 5.5(!) bpg. For the month, he's averaging 11.8 ppg, 9.8 rpg, and 5.0 bpg. Just dominant.

    Griffin had a very up and down week as he took over a starting spot this week. He was instrumental in the dominance of Wake, especially in the first half. His breakout performance was followed by... well... a bit of a dud yesterday. It was the first real clunker since his emergence as a regular member of the top 6 in the rotation. So we'll let it slide. For the week, he averaged 12.5 ppg, 3.0 rpg, and 1.5 apg. For 2022, he's averaging 11.8 ppg, 4.5 rpg, and 1.3 apg, shooting 43.8% on 3s and 60.0% on 2s.

    Banchero just continues to be the best player on the floor every night. His consistency has been amazing. Against Power-6 schools and Gonzaga, he has just one game with less than 17 points (that was a 14-point effort at OSU) and just two below 20. This week was no exception: he led the team in scoring both games, averaging 23.5 ppg, 6.5 rpg, 2.5 apg, and 1 bpg. For January, he's at 20.5 ppg, 7.8 rpg, 2.8 apg, 1.0 spg, 1.5 bpg. He is amazing.

    Moore continued his bumpy start to 2022. I don't know if it is a matter of regaining form after COVID or if teams have started to figure him out, but the metronomic excellence of the pre-conference season hasn't appeared so far in 2022. He averaged 11 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 3.5 apg, 2.0 spg, and 2.0 topg. He plays a ton and takes on the toughest defensive assignment, so it isn't like he is struggling all the way around. But the offense has suffered. For the month, he's at 10.5 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 4.0 apg, 1.3 spg, and 3.3 topg. Let's hope this week we see Nov/Dec Moore return.

    Keels has stepped up his role on offense a bit with Moore fading in January. He averaged 11.5 ppg, 4.0 rpg, 6.5 apg, 3.5 spg, and 2.0 topg for the week. He shot 3-8 from 3 for the week, which is a step in the right direction too. For the month, he's at 10.5 ppg, 4.8 rpg, 4.3 apg, 2.0 spg, and 2.0 topg. Really, we're just waiting for the 3pt shot to arrive with him. Otherwise, he's been stellar.

    Roach was the guy whose minutes and starting spot were ceded to Griffin this week. He averaged 21 mpg, which is solid. But his performance was tame: 3.5 ppg, 2.5 apg, 1 spg, 0 to. Of note, he had 4 assists (and of course 0 turnovers) against State, and he also had several nice passes against Wake that resulted in fouled layup/dunk attempts. So in his reserve role, he's started to play more like a facilitator. Hopefully he can build on that for the rest of this year and for next year. For the month, he's averaging 6.3 ppg, 3.0 apg, 1.0 topg, shooting 40% from 3, and 84.6% from the FT line, but just 30.8% on 2s.

    Baker saw an uptick in minutes this week after averaging just 7 mpg in the first 3 ACC games. His game against Wake was forgettable. But he was decent against State aside from inexplicably poor FT shooting. For the week, he average 12 mpg and 3.5 ppg, but shot 28.6% from the field, 25.0% from 3, and 28.6% from the FT line. For the month, he's at 9.3 mpg, 2.5 ppg, 1.0 rpg, and 40.0% from 3.

    John, like Baker, was brutal against Wake. But he bounced back with a solid game against State, scoring a season-high 10 points in 11 minutes. For the week, he averaged 5.0 ppg, 1.5 rpg, and 0.5 bpg in 8.5 mpg. For the month, he's averaging 6.0 mpg, 3.0 ppg, 1.3 rpg, and 0.5 bpg.

  15. #55
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Richmond, VA
    CDu. Thanks for the analysis. I was reading the FSU pregame thread and the analysis of FSU and wondered what an analysis of Duke would look like and here it is.

  16. #56
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    NC
    Halfway through the month now. So far, it hasn't been all rosy.

    Banchero: 36.6 mpg, 20.4 ppg, 8.6 rpg, 3.6 apg, 1.6 bpg, 0.8 spg, 2.8 topg, 55.6 fg%, 35.7 3pt%, 67.5 ft%. He's the best player in the conference, and has consistently put up big numbers. The team is going to ask even more of him moving forward it seems. Just a phenomenal player. He deserves the ACC PoY award.

    Moore: 36.4 mpg, 11.0 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 3.6 apg, 1.0 spg, 3.4 topg, 46.5 fg%, 40.0 3pt%, 73.3 ft%. It has felt a bit more like a better 3pt shooting version of sophomore-year Moore so far in January. It would be really nice to get Nov/Dec Moore back, and soon. Those aren't bad numbers (aside from the turnovers, which have been bad). But we could use a 15, 5, and 5 line again.

    Williams: 26.2 mpg, 12.4 ppg, 9.2 rpg, 4.6 bpg, 66.7 fg%, 66.7 ft%. Williams has been absolutely terrific in January.

    Griffin: 26.6 mpg, 11.0 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 1.4 apg, 0.6 topg, 52.8 fg%, 45.0 3pt%, 57.1 ft%. Aside from the FT shooting and defense, Griffin has had a good month. Consistency is the question mark. He followed up his monster night at Wake with a combined 11 points the past two games. Figuring out how to make an impact consistently will help this team a lot moving forward. And playing better perimeter defense, where he's looked much slower than advertised.

    Keels: 32.8 mpg, 10.2 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 3.8 apg, 2.0 spg, 1.6 topg, 35.2 fg%, 28.6 3pt%, 83.3 ft%. Quite simply, he isn't making 3pt shots. He's doing basically everything else extremely well. But the shooting has been really rough. He either needs to shoot a lot lower volume or the % needs to go up (or both). But mainly, I hope he's healthy again soon.

    Roach: 27.8 mpg, 6.2 ppg, 3.6 apg, 1.6 rpg, 1.0 topg, 33.3 fg%, 42.9 3pt%, 80.0 ft%. For Roach, it's the 2pt shot which has disappeared for him. But his passing and outside shooting have been terrific, and he's generally taken care of the ball well. The last two games have been great on the PG side: 10 assists to 1 turnover, 50.0 3pt%.

    Baker: 11.2 mpg, 3.0 ppg, 1.0 rpg, 0.4 apg, 0.4 topg, 38.5 fg%, 37.5 3pt%, 28.6 ft%, 1.8 fpg. Yeesh, that FT%. Aside from that, Baker has basically been the Baker we expect: hits open shots, doesn't bring a lot else to the table, fouls too much and struggles defensively.

    John: 6.6 mpg, 2.8 ppg, 1.6 rpg, 0.6 bpg, 0.8 topg, 1.0 fpg, 50.0 fg%, 66.7 ft%. The rate stats aren't terrible: 13 points, 8 rebounds, 3 blocks per 33 minutes. But the foul rate is too high (5 per 33 minutes) as is the turnover rate (4 per 33 minutes). And the FG% should be higher. But really, it's just a brutal game against Wake that is weighing down his stat line. As from that one, it looks like this: 6.8 mpg, 3.5 ppg, 1.8 rpg, .8 bpg, 0.5 topg, 0.3 fpg, and 55.6 fg%, or 17.5 points, 9 rebounds, 4 blocks, 2.5 turnovers, and 1.3 fouls per 34 minutes. But man was that Wake game a stinker: 4 fouls and 2 turnovers in just 6 minutes.

    The big things I see are:
    - Moore needs to score better and turn it over less
    - Keels needs to shoot less and make a higher percentage
    - Roach needs to either make his 2s better or shoot them less
    - The team needs to rebound better than they have the last two games

  17. #57
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Steamboat Springs, CO
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    The big things I see are:
    - Moore needs to score better and turn it over less
    - Keels needs to shoot less and make a higher percentage
    - Roach needs to either make his 2s better or shoot them less
    - The team needs to rebound better than they have the last two games
    Casual observations about Roach: (A) He is the guy that seems to be open on the perimeter when the shot clock is going 5...4...3. So, if his shot selection and shooting percentage are suspect, that may be the reason. (B) And the flip side of that, which leads to the same conclusion, is that he is almost never the focal point of the offense at the beginning of a possession.
    Sage Grouse

    ---------------------------------------
    'When I got on the bus for my first road game at Duke, I saw that every player was carrying textbooks or laptops. I coached in the SEC for 25 years, and I had never seen that before, not even once.' - David Cutcliffe to Duke alumni in Washington, DC, June 2013

  18. #58
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    NC
    Another blowout win, Duke's 5th double-digit win of the season in ACC play. If only we could add two close wins to that list. Oh well. Still, it was a nice bounceback for a lot of these guys. For the month, we're as follows:

    Banchero: 36.0 mpg, 19.5 ppg, 9.3 rpg, 3.7 apg, 1.5 bpg, 0.8 spg, 2.7 topg, 55.4 fg%, 33.3 3pt%, 65.9 ft%. The guy is a machine. 15/13/4 with a block and a steal today. The only chink in the armor is that the FT shooting continues to be subpar this month after being awesome from the stripe in 2021. But, yeah, he's still awesome.

    Moore: 36.5 mpg, 11.7 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 4.3 apg, 1.2 spg, 3.0 topg, 47.3 fg%, 41.2 3pt%, 73.3 ft%. Great game for him against the weak Syracuse zone. His 3pt shooting continues to be terrific this year. Hopefully this game gets him back in rhythm. Our next game will be a tad more athletically challenging, so hopefully he doesn't revert to turnover prone. Regardless, he's having a terrific year, and his month overall has been good too. Will gladly take 15/6/8 with just 1 turnover.

    Williams: 26.5 mpg, 12.8 ppg, 8.8 rpg, 4.0 bpg, 1.8 topg 69.4 fg%, 75.0 ft%. Williams wasn't asked to do as much today, but he still produced a 15/7/1 line in just 23 minutes. He is performing exactly like the player many were hoping for this year in the month of January. And how about that FT%?

    Griffin: 26.6 mpg, 11.7 ppg, 4.5 rpg, 1.2 apg, 0.7 topg, 52.2 fg%, 48.3 3pt%, 57.1 ft%. Griffin continued his very nice month offensively. The only quibble I have offensively is that he's perhaps too reliant on 3. But when you're hitting nearly 50% of 3s, that's a VERY minor quibble. I'd like to see him start to attack the rim a bit more as the season progresses. But, regardless, he's playing really well.

    Keels: 32.8 mpg, 10.2 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 3.8 apg, 2.0 spg, 1.6 topg, 35.2 fg%, 28.6 3pt%, 83.3 ft%. Hope he is able to return to the court next week.

    Roach: 27.8 mpg, 6.2 ppg, 4.5 apg, 1.8 rpg, 1.0 topg, 29.4 fg%, 33.3 3pt%, 80.0 ft%. He's really struggling with his shot right now, but his distribution has been obscenely fantastic: 20 assists to 2 turnovers in the past 4 games. He also did a stellar job today defending Girard, which was nice to see after a rough patch defensively. He's leading the team in assists and assist rate for January. That said, it'd be really nice if he could get that FG% back up to adequate.

    Baker: 12.2 mpg, 4.3 ppg, 0.8 rpg, 0.5 apg, 0.7 topg, 42.9 fg%, 42.9 3pt%, 28.6 ft%, 1.5 fpg. Yeesh, that FT%. This was, on paper, a terrific matchup for Baker. And he made good on that, with 11 points in 17 minutes and 50% rom the field and from 3. The only knock was he committed two turnovers.

    John: 7.8 mpg, 2.5 ppg, 2.0 rpg, 0.5 bpg, 0.7 topg, 1.2 fpg, 50.0 fg%, 66.7 ft%. I thought John got jobbed a bit today by the officials, as I thought he had a clean block of Boeheim but got called for a foul. Aside from missing what would have been a highlight-reel alleyoop dunk, he had a solid game today.

    Three more games left this month. Hopefully that means 3 more wins this month!

  19. #59
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    NC
    Another win, albeit a nailbiter. Duke's 1st single-digit win of the season in ACC play. Two more games this month; let's keep winning! For the month, we're as follows:

    Banchero: 35.0 mpg, 19.4 ppg, 9.0 rpg, 3.7 apg, 1.4 bpg, 0.7 spg, 2.9 topg, 55.1 fg%, 34.8 3pt%, 66.7 ft%. He continues to be a marvel on offense, but he's a bit reckless with the ball and susceptible to lapses of focus on defense. But he's still a stud.

    Moore: 36.9 mpg, 11.9 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 3.9 apg, 1.3 spg, 3.0 topg, 46.2 fg%, 45.5 3pt%, 76.5 ft%. The good news is that the scoring and defense are back, and he is shooting the ball really well. The bad news is that the turnovers persist, and that is consistent with his play overall against quality competition. He seemed to move more off ball last night. Will be interesting to see if that continues. If he can focus on hunting his shot and locking down his man defensively (and if the other guys can handle the playmaking), that's great. In the absence of Keels, he has to be an ironman.

    Williams: 26.6 mpg, 12.4 ppg, 9.0 rpg, 3.9 bpg, 1.9 topg 71.2 fg%, 76.5 ft%. He's a stud. And raise hands if you saw him as threatening for the team lead in FT% for the month!

    Griffin: 26.4 mpg, 10.7 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 1.3 apg, 0.9 topg, 47.2 fg%, 46.7 3pt%, 64.7 ft%. After a solid game against FSU and a great shooting night against Syracuse, Griffin had a real dud last night. Still, it's been a positive month overall. Hopefully he bounces back quickly.

    Keels: 32.8 mpg, 10.2 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 3.8 apg, 2.0 spg, 1.6 topg, 35.2 fg%, 28.6 3pt%, 83.3 ft%. Hope he is able to return to the court Saturday, or if not Saturday then Monday.

    Roach: 29.6 mpg, 6.4 ppg, 5.1 apg, 2.1 rpg, 1.0 topg, 31.0 fg%, 33.3 3pt%, 76.5 ft%. A really good night for Roach last night. His assist:turnover rate for the month is 5.1! His last 4+ games have been terrific PG play. The concern remains the shooting. Hopefully that comes around. Either way though, he's playing great basketball at a time when we really need him to do so.

    Baker: 13.0 mpg, 5.3 ppg, 0.7 rpg, 0.4 apg, 0.6 topg, 50.0 fg%, 50.0 3pt%, 28.6 ft%, 1.5 fpg. Back to back strong offensive performances from Baker. The problem for him continues to be on the other end where he fouls way too much and is outquicked often. But he's hitting those 3s, which is what his primary value to the team is. And how about that driving hook late last night?

    John: 7.9 mpg, 2.3 ppg, 1.9 rpg, 0.4 bpg, 0.6 topg, 1.0 fpg, 46.2 fg%, 66.7 ft%. Mainly just a screens guy and minutes filler for Williams. He's filling that role.

    Jones: 2.6 mpg, 0.7 ppg, 0.4 rpg, 66.7 fg%, 50.0 3pt%. Shout out to Batesy, who gave us 9 solid minutes last night!

    Road games against a bad team (Louisville) and a fairly solid team (Notre Dame). Time to step up!

  20. #60
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    NC
    We're going streaking! Three wins in a row, and all without one of our only two regular guards. For the month, we're as follows:

    Banchero: 35.3 mpg, 18.4 ppg, 9.8 rpg, 3.6 apg, 1.4 bpg, 0.6 spg, 2.6 topg, 51.9 fg%, 32.0 3pt%, 66.0 ft%. This was the first real clunker of an offensive game that we've seen from Banchero. so maybe he is human. Still, he added 15 boards and his stat line for the month remains pretty spectacular.

    Moore: 37.0 mpg, 11.6 ppg, 5.3 rpg, 4.0 apg, 1.4 spg, 2.9 topg, 44.6 fg%, 40.0 3pt%, 73.9 ft%. In the absence of Keels, he has had to be an ironman. His stat line against Louisville was solid, albeit not amazing. But given the burden he has to play ~40 minutes without Keels, it was a really good game. The month hasn't been kind to Moore statistically, but hopefully he can end it on a high note.

    Williams: 26.1 mpg, 12.6 ppg, 9.3 rpg, 3.6 bpg, 1.8 topg 69.8 fg%, 76.5 ft%. He's a stud, with another great performance this weekend.

    Griffin: 27.4 mpg, 12.1 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 1.1 apg, 0.8 topg, 50.0 fg%, 54.3 3pt%, 60.0 ft%. Griffin was huge against Louisville. The only negative was the FT shooting (1-3). But, yeah, I'll gladly take 5-5 from 3 and 22 points. He's had a month of January.

    Keels: 32.8 mpg, 10.2 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 3.8 apg, 2.0 spg, 1.6 topg, 35.2 fg%, 28.6 3pt%, 83.3 ft%. Hope he is able to return to the court tonight. We could really use his energy.

    Roach: 30.6 mpg, 6.8 ppg, 5.1 apg, 2.4 rpg, 1.0 topg, 31.4 fg%, 30.4 3pt%, 75.0 ft%. It's crazy what can spur the "light coming on" for a player. But it appears that the benching has been that lights-witch moment for Roach. Since then, he's tallied 34 assists to just 4 turnovers in a 6-game span, with his WORST assist:turnover ratio game being 5:1. The concern now is the shooting, but if he can keep playing PG like this, I can live with a poor FG%.

    Baker: 12.9 mpg, 4.9 ppg, 0.6 rpg, 0.5 apg, 0.5 topg, 45.2 fg%, 42.9 3pt%, 28.6 ft%, 1.8 fpg. Well, it was a clunker from Baker against Louisville. It's tough to be a low-minutes catch-and-shoot guy, and he just didn't have the stroke this weekend. And, unfortunately, he got picked on defensively. For the month, though, his stat line looks like what you'd expect from Baker.

    John: 8.5 mpg, 2.9 ppg, 2.3 rpg, 0.4 bpg, 0.8 topg, 1.1 fpg, 52.9 fg%, 40.0 ft%. He had to play more than usual against Louisville, and he came up big when called upon. But he will remain just an insurance policy for Williams.

    One last road game this month tonight against Notre Dame. A win here would go a long way towards our ACC regular season title chances. Let's get it done![/QUOTE]

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