What to Watch for in Duke MBB: January 2022

[uh_no]

Pre-season, there was a lot of discussion whether the offense would partially go through Mark. After his incredible last ~5-7 games, there was a lot of offseason optimism.

But safe to say Williams is incredibly limited offensively. Like you said, if you're offense is "lobs, offensive rebounding, or even just the gravity he creates that may lead to some more open 3s", that's limited. On defense, there is little to criticize. He's been great. On offense, he's limited. He hasn't really improved offensively compared to last year (and yes, I'm sure someone will list a bunch of stats where he has improved. But, overall, his improvement on defense is a lot more impressive than offense).

The question is whether we need Williams to be effective and better offensively. I'm not sure we do. We have 2 absolute studs in Moore and Banchero. We have two defensive ace guards who can become better shooters as the season progresses in Roach and Keels. We have an emerging wing who is starting to figure it out and will likely be the second Duke pick drafted after Banchero in Griffin. Baker and John provide nice depth. And in Williams, we have a frightening defensive anchor who plays great against traditional line ups.

I'd love to see Williams get better offensively, especially in iso situations. But I don't think we need him to to achieve our end goal.

I think this is pretty representative. There was the opinion, that to be successful we needed more pieces than just paolo...and williams was part of what we thought we needed. It turns out, however, that moore has been better than I think most would have imagined...and that has lessened the need for some of the other pieces (roach and williams, mostly) to improve on where they were last year.

[scottdude8]

Pre-season, there was a lot of discussion whether the offense would partially go through Mark. After his incredible last ~5-7 games of the last season, there was a lot of offseason optimism.

But safe to say Williams is incredibly limited offensively. Like you said, if you're offense is "lobs, offensive rebounding, or even just the gravity he creates that may lead to some more open 3s", that's limited. On defense, there is little to criticize. He's been great. On offense, he's limited. He hasn't really improved offensively compared to last year (and yes, I'm sure someone will list a bunch of stats where he has improved. But, overall, his improvement on defense is a lot more impressive than offense).

The question is whether we need Williams to be effective and better offensively. I'm not sure we do. We have 2 absolute studs in Moore and Banchero. We have two defensive ace guards who can become better shooters as the season progresses in Roach and Keels. We have an emerging wing who is starting to figure it out and will likely be the second Duke pick drafted after Banchero in Griffin. Baker and John provide nice depth. And in Williams, we have a frightening defensive anchor who plays great against traditional line ups.

I'd love to see Williams get better offensively, especially in iso situations. But I don't think we need him to to achieve our end goal.

All this is extremely valid, but I think it must be tempered by the reality that Mark just isn't getting many opportunities to showcase his ability to create offensively given the makeup of the team. I don't think many of us expected Wendell to take the huge leap forward he has. Entering the season we thought our offense would be Paolo plus a lot of guys complimenting him, but we've ended up having a clear top two in Paolo and Wendell, plus a clear third option in Trevor. So I don't think we can say definitively whether Mark's lack of creation in the post is because of lack of opportunity or lack of improvement... maybe my memory is a bit hazy because of the COVID pause, but I can count on one hand the number of true post-up opportunities Mark had in the four games prior to the break.

Whether Mark is still limited offensively or his opportunities have been limited, the end result remains the same. But I don't think the team should give up on that element of Mark's game just yet, as making that a threat would improve every other element of the current offense you highlighted.

[flyingdutchdevil]

I think this is pretty representative. There was the opinion, that to be successful we needed more pieces than just paolo...and williams was part of what we thought we needed. It turns out, however, that moore has been better than I think most would have imagined...and that has lessened the need for some of the other pieces (roach and williams, mostly) to improve on where they were last year.

Yeah, compared to the off-season, I'd qualitatively rank 'expectation' vs 'actual output' for the following players:

Moore: Expectation <<<<< Output
Keels: Expectation < Output
Baker: Expectation < Output
Banchero: Expectation = Output
John: Expectation = Output
Roach: Expectation > Output
Williams: Expectation > Output
Griffin: Expectation >> Output (understanding that he's getting better and better every game)

To me, Moore's output over expectation has absolutely outweighed Williams's and Roach's combined expectation over output. And because of that, I think where are team is today is better than where a lot of us thought it would be.

[CDu]

Pre-season, there was a lot of discussion whether the offense would partially go through Mark. After his incredible last ~5-7 games of the last season, there was a lot of offseason optimism.

But safe to say Williams is incredibly limited offensively. Like you said, if you're offense is "lobs, offensive rebounding, or even just the gravity he creates that may lead to some more open 3s", that's limited. On defense, there is little to criticize. He's been great. On offense, he's limited. He hasn't really improved offensively compared to last year (and yes, I'm sure someone will list a bunch of stats where he has improved. But, overall, his improvement on defense is a lot more impressive than offense).

I agree with this. I've used the term elite platoon player. His skill set is very limited, but what he can do he does EXTREMELY well. That's true on offense and on defense, although he has more limitations on offense. Defensively, he's not great in defending away from the basket (as is true for most bigs). But he does everything else pretty well defensively. It's on the offensive end where his limitations are more glaring.

He was more involved offensively late last year because (a) the matchups were better and (b) the team was worse. We all (me definitely included) overestimated how involved he'd be on offense, but he's not playing worse offensively. He's just not being used as much.

The question is whether we need Williams to be effective and better offensively. I'm not sure we do. We have 2 absolute studs in Moore and Banchero. We have two defensive ace guards who can become better shooters as the season progresses in Roach and Keels. We have an emerging wing who is starting to figure it out and will likely be the second Duke pick drafted after Banchero in Griffin. Baker and John provide nice depth. And in Williams, we have a frightening defensive anchor who plays great against traditional line ups.

This pretty much hits the nail on the head. We all thought the identity of the team would rely heavily on Williams. Mainly because by the end of last year it seemed that the team's identity was coalescing around him being integral, and it wasn't certain who else would be effective. But Moore's emergence has changed things, as have the readiness of Keels and the emergence of Griffin. There are only so many touches to go around, and with Moore taking that second leading role it's just meant less opportunity across the board. So instead of forcing the action through Williams such that he's a 15 and 9 guy, we've gone more situational with him. And so far we haven't needed him as much given the types of opponents we've played.

I'd love to see Williams get better offensively, especially in iso situations. But I don't think we need him to to achieve our end goal.

Realistically, I don't expect Williams to get many iso opportunities. It's just not a very efficient approach, and it doesn't play to the strengths of this team (both in terms of his skill set and in terms of our perimeter players making entry passes). So I don't expect to see a ton of it. Though I agree it'd be great if he does start to show it. I just don't expect it. And I agree that we don't need it from him for the team to succeed.

[flyingdutchdevil]

All this is extremely valid, but I think it must be tempered by the reality that Mark just isn't getting many opportunities to showcase his ability to create offensively given the makeup of the team. I don't think many of us expected Wendell to take the huge leap forward he has. Entering the season we thought our offense would be Paolo plus a lot of guys complimenting him, but we've ended up having a clear top two in Paolo and Wendell, plus a clear third option in Trevor. So I don't think we can say definitively whether Mark's lack of creation in the post is because of lack of opportunity or lack of improvement... maybe my memory is a bit hazy because of the COVID pause, but I can count on one hand the number of true post-up opportunities Mark had in the four games prior to the break.

Whether Mark is still limited offensively or his opportunities have been limited, the end result remains the same. But I don't think the team should give up on that element of Mark's game just yet, as making that a threat would improve every other element of the current offense you highlighted.

Opportunities have been limited because Mark is limited offensively (and not the best at guarding the perimeter). Mark is not an elite offensive rebounder so he can't do a ton of damage on that end. His iso and post-up play is very limited. He can't shoot beyond 4 feet from the rim. His FTA of 1.8 per game is underwhelming.

But I love having him out there for a variety of reasons. The first is defense (duh). The second is his offensive intelligence; he knows he isn't the best offensive player and hence doesn't take a lot of bad shots. The third is his lack of turnovers. And the fourth is his opportunistic scoring, whether it's a lob or a great pass from the guards.

I've accepted Williams is a limited offensive player and that hasn't impacted my belief that this team has what it needs to get a 6th and final natty for K.

[DukieInBrasil]

Opportunities have been limited because Mark is limited offensively (and not the best at guarding the perimeter). Mark is not an elite offensive rebounder so he can't do a ton of damage on that end. His iso and post-up play is very limited. He can't shoot beyond 4 feet from the rim. His FTA of 1.8 per game is underwhelming.

But I love having him out there for a variety of reasons. The first is defense (duh). The second is his offensive intelligence; he knows he isn't the best offensive player and hence doesn't take a lot of bad shots. The third is his lack of turnovers. And the fourth is his opportunistic scoring, whether it's a lob or a great pass from the guards.

I've accepted Williams is a limited offensive player and that hasn't impacted my belief that this team has what it needs to get a 6th and final natty for K.

the bold part is just not true. Over the course of his career Mark has shown the ability to hit elbow jumpers when left open. He hasn't hit a 3, and will unfortunately never challenge MP3 for the career 3FG% crown.

[flyingdutchdevil]

the bold part is just not true. Over the course of his career Mark has shown the ability to hit elbow jumpers when left open. He hasn't hit a 3, and will unfortunately never challenge MP3 for the career 3FG% crown.

Then we are watching two different Mark Williams. This year, I can't recall one elbow jumper. And last year, I'm not sure he hit more than a couple (but my memory hasn't been that good).

Williams is a career 57% FT shooter. He is not an adept mid-range shooter.

[CDu]

the bold part is just not true. Over the course of his career Mark has shown the ability to hit elbow jumpers when left open. He hasn't hit a 3, and will unfortunately never challenge MP3 for the career 3FG% crown.

Eh, he's hitting just 22% on shots away from the rim this year, albeit on a VERY low volume of 9 shots. He's hitting 65% from the FT line, which is okay. But in terms of FG shooting, I think it's fair to question if he can shoot from outside of 5 feet. He was a bit better on shots away from the rim last year, at 40% on 27 attempts. But still on a low volume and usually completely uncontested.

Now, he can occasionally make them, but he's a career 13-36 on 2s not taken at the rim. Which is pretty bad.

[luvdahops]

Opportunities have been limited because Mark is limited offensively (and not the best at guarding the perimeter). Mark is not an elite offensive rebounder so he can't do a ton of damage on that end. His iso and post-up play is very limited. He can't shoot beyond 4 feet from the rim. His FTA of 1.8 per game is underwhelming.

But I love having him out there for a variety of reasons. The first is defense (duh). The second is his offensive intelligence; he knows he isn't the best offensive player and hence doesn't take a lot of bad shots. The third is his lack of turnovers. And the fourth is his opportunistic scoring, whether it's a lob or a great pass from the guards.

I've accepted Williams is a limited offensive player and that hasn't impacted my belief that this team has what it needs to get a 6th and final natty for K.

Not sure I fully agree with this. I thought Mark showed some decent moves and touch in the low post last year. But, as noted earlier in the thread, this team's general approach on offense doesn't really accommodate much in the way of traditional post-ups. They tend to be inefficient and to clog driving lanes.

More generally, I think a lot of any "disappointment" with Williams this year is more a function of folks extrapolating his 2021 finish onto more minutes and assuming perhaps some modestly improved productivity. Such that we wound up with expectations of something like ~13-15 and 8-10 with 3 blocks in 27-28 mpg. As CDu notes, the per minute productivity is essentially there. He's just not playing as much as expected.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Not sure I fully agree with this. I thought Mark showed some decent moves and touch in the low post last year. But, as noted earlier in the thread, this team's general approach on offense doesn't really accommodate much in the way of traditional post-ups. They tend to be inefficient and to clog driving lanes.

More generally, I think a lot of any "disappointment" with Williams this year is more a function of folks extrapolating his 2021 finish onto more minutes and assuming perhaps some modestly improved productivity. Such that we wound up with expectations of something like ~13-15 and 8-10 with 3 blocks in 27-28 mpg. As CDu notes, the per minute productivity is essentially there. He's just not playing as much as expected.

I agree he isn't getting a lot of opportunities. But in those opportunity he does get this year, he's not capitalizing. I stand by what I said about his post-up game; it's underdeveloped at this point. And, as I've said many times before, that's okay! We don't need Williams to be an offensive guru to be great. His defense coupled with opportunistic offense is enough.

[CDu]

I agree he isn't getting a lot of opportunities. But in those opportunity he does get this year, he's not capitalizing.

I'm not entirely sure I agree here. He's shooting 67.7% from the field, and has turned some of his own misses into putbacks. So it does seem like he's capitalizing on his opportunities. It's just that they aren't forcing those opportunities to him this year. Which, as you said, is fine.

[flyingdutchdevil]

I'm not entirely sure I agree here. He's shooting 67.7% from the field, and has turned some of his own misses into putbacks. So it does seem like he's capitalizing on his opportunities. It's just that they aren't forcing those opportunities to him this year. Which, as you said, is fine.

I wish I had the data, but I feel his 1-on-1 isos, striped from putbacks and lobs, has a low FG%. Williams is great on lobs and is situations when the guards find him free under the basket. But in those traditional back-to-the-basket plays, he's not scoring.

If those isos were an asset, you'd bet the team would be forcing more of those opportunities. The fact that they aren't is telling.

[CDu]

I wish I had the data, but I feel his 1-on-1 isos, striped from putbacks and lobs, has a low FG%. Williams is great on lobs and is situations when the guards find him free under the basket. But in those traditional back-to-the-basket plays, he's not scoring.

If those isos were an asset, you'd bet the team would be forcing more of those opportunities. The fact that they aren't is telling.

I should amend what I'm saying. I don't think he's notably any less efficient this year on his opportunities than he was last year. Of course he is more efficient on lobs/dumpoffs than on isos. That's true of pretty much all bigs. But his FG% is right in line with what it was last year, which suggests to me that he's finishing roughly the same rate as last year.

[Kedsy]

Then we are watching two different Mark Williams. This year, I can't recall one elbow jumper. And last year, I'm not sure he hit more than a couple (but my memory hasn't been that good).

Williams is a career 57% FT shooter. He is not an adept mid-range shooter.

Eh, he's hitting just 22% on shots away from the rim this year, albeit on a VERY low volume of 9 shots. He's hitting 65% from the FT line, which is okay. But in terms of FG shooting, I think it's fair to question if he can shoot from outside of 5 feet. He was a bit better on shots away from the rim last year, at 40% on 27 attempts. But still on a low volume and usually completely uncontested.

Now, he can occasionally make them, but he's a career 13-36 on 2s not taken at the rim. Which is pretty bad.

While I agree that 36 two-point jumpers in a season and a half is very low volume, Mark's career percentage (36.1%) is not bad at all, especially for a big man.

Here are some selected career two-point jumper percentages for recent Duke players:

Frank Jackson: 38.6%
Tre Jones: 37.8%
Brandon Ingram: 37.6%
Matt Jones: 37.6%
Grayson Allen: 37.4%
Cassius Stanley: 37.3%
RJ Barrett: 36.9%
Wendell Carter: 36.8%
DJ Steward: 36.5%
Tyus Jones: 36.1%
Quinn Cook: 35.6%
Rasheed Sulaimon: 35.0%
Gary Trent: 33.6%
Austin Rivers: 33.3%
Cam Reddish: 27.7%
Justise Winslow: 26.9%

While most or all of these guys attempted a whole lot more two-point jumpers than Mark Williams did, on a percentage basis, he seems about average, and almost all the above guys were guards or wings.

[Kedsy]

I wish I had the data, but I feel his 1-on-1 isos, striped from putbacks and lobs, has a low FG%.

I don't have post up data either (I looked but couldn't find) and I guess it depends on what you consider a low percentage, but it can't be all that low since Mark's only missed 20 shots all season. And most of those were in the first few games. In Mark's last seven games he's only missed six shots.

[CDu]

While I agree that 36 two-point jumpers in a season and a half is very low volume, Mark's career percentage (36.1%) is not bad at all, especially for a big man.

Here are some selected career two-point jumper percentages for recent Duke players:

Frank Jackson: 38.6%
Tre Jones: 37.8%
Brandon Ingram: 37.6%
Matt Jones: 37.6%
Grayson Allen: 37.4%
Cassius Stanley: 37.3%
RJ Barrett: 36.9%
Wendell Carter: 36.8%
DJ Steward: 36.5%
Tyus Jones: 36.1%
Quinn Cook: 35.6%
Rasheed Sulaimon: 35.0%
Gary Trent: 33.6%
Austin Rivers: 33.3%
Cam Reddish: 27.7%
Justise Winslow: 26.9%

While most or all of these guys attempted a whole lot more two-point jumpers than Mark Williams did, on a percentage basis, he seems about average, and almost all the above guys were guards or wings.

Worth noting that “2pt jumpers” includes anything from ~3 ft to ~20 ft. Williams’ shot chart on 2pt jumpers is much closer to the basket than those other guys I am quite sure.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Worth noting that “2pt jumpers” includes anything from ~3 ft to ~20 ft. Williams’ shot chart on 2pt jumpers is much closer to the basket than those other guys I am quite sure.

Yeah... not sure you can compare a guard/wing who shoots all over the floor to a big man who is limited in range. It's like saying Marshall Plumlee has the highest 3pt percentage in Duke history. While an accurate statement, it does not provide the context needed to establish the statement, 'MP3 is an elite 3pt shooter'.

Look, I get the Mark Williams love around here. I love the dude as well. But I'm calling a spade a spade, and this spade is limited offensively. But we'd still rather much have him on the team/floor than not.

This isn't a Josh Hairston0-type discussion where posters are arguing the value of the total player; 99.8% of Duke fans know Mark provides positive value. He's just not a versatile offensive scorer. Not sure why folks are getting upset by that statement...

[superdave]

Defense: For the most part (specifically, 8 of our 12 games), our defense has been elite. We don't foul, we block a good percentage of shots, we contest 3s, and we force a decent number of turnovers. Aside from avoiding fouls we've not done any one thing at an elite level, but the aggregate has been pretty good. That being said, there have still been leaks. WE've had two mediocre performances (Va Tech, Campbell) and two awful performances (Citadel and App State). Will we be able to continue to smother opponents the way we have, or will teams start to identify wrinkles that expose some of our limitations? The overplay on the perimeter does open up the opportunity to beat us off the dribble, for example. Can we start to see more turnovers from our pressure defense? Will our pressure start resulting in fouls being called? And can we start to rebound a bit better?

The defense is where this team can be special. They can play man defense both large and small, and are playing around with some full court options. Most importantly, as young as they are, they dont really have a missing link in the man-to-man. Every guy is pretty good or really good at rotating, keeping assignments, and defending without fouling.

On top of that, these guys both want to be great defensively and they enjoy hawking the ball/hunting a weak offensive player/generally being disruptive.

When we get to the end of these season, I think the Gonzaga and Virginia Tech games will be remembered as games where this team collectively realized they can be really good together. Those two games remind me of the the games @Wisconsin and @Virginia in the 2015 season where the team strung together winning plays down the stretch and grew collectively.

The next step for this team is take the 5-10 minute stretches defensively and do it for a whole game on a consistent basis. For a young team, they should take some lumps in ACC road games. That is where the backbone stiffens and they figure out what it takes to win three or four tough games in row, like in the post-season.

[jimsumner]

the bold part is just not true. Over the course of his career Mark has shown the ability to hit elbow jumpers when left open. He hasn't hit a 3, and will unfortunately never challenge MP3 for the career 3FG% crown.

Williams did hit a 3 in one of the exhibitions. Not sure if it was Countdown or the Winston-Salem State game. But it was more of a set shot than a jumper and he did not look very comfortable.

I keep hearing that Williams can and does knock down 3s in practice. But we heard the same things about Amile Jefferson and Marques Bolden and regardless of the accuracy of the reports, neither of these guys had the confidence to take that shot in a game with any regularity.

And Jefferson never could get a foothold in the NBA and Bolden appears to be heading in the same direction. It is a thing in the NBA and it's a thing Mark Williams is going to have to improve on if he's going to maximize his potential at the next level.

Then again, his inconsistent PT this season at Duke is more a function of what the other team is doing on offense and what he is being asked to do in response. Duke can and does surround him with 3-point shooters. Duke is good there.

[Kedsy]

99.8% of Duke fans know Mark provides positive value.

Yeah, I suppose this is the key point. But I'm not sure what percentage of Duke fans realize how much positive value he brings. I was looking for post up numbers and shot charts (couldn't find any) and came across RealGM's college stat portal.

According to RealGM, Mark Williams is

#1 in the ACC in PER,
#2 in the ACC in oRating,
#1 in the ACC in dRating,
#2 in the ACC in eFG%,
#3 in the ACC in TS%,
#1 in the ACC in OR%,
#5 in the ACC in total rebounding% (#3 in rebounds per 40 minutes),
#2 in the ACC in block% (#1 in blocks per 40 minutes),
#4 in the ACC in assist/TO ratio (!).

Even his rankings in points per 40 (#23 in the ACC, #5 among ACC centers) and steal% (#42 in the ACC, #4 among ACC centers) are pretty strong. Whether or not he has room to improve, he's having a really good season.