Horse Racing 2022

[DevilHorse]

DevilHorse there is information I would like to find, but a simple google search ended with no results. How often does the Ky Derby winner come into the race off a winning race? In my regular handicapping a previous race winner with a widening margin is a good sign. Should we automatically exclude any horse coming off a dull effort?

I think the Derby is the hardest race to handicap because horses come from so many different tracks. The same thing has always made Keeneland a difficult place to handicap. (This year the horses coming from Gulfstream seem to be winning more than horses from other tracks.)

There are certain races that appear each year to be important in establishing the best horses. The Risen Star at Fairgrounds appears to be such a race this year. Fairgrounds races were important last year with Mandaloun and Hot Rod Charlie in New Orleans. (I know Chuck was training in California but raced in New Orleans.)

Somewhat off topic, but most important is the ride a jockey gives the horse. I still think Louis Saez screwed Essential Quality last year by keeping him outside the entire way around the track. Brad Cox was evidently okay with it, but EQ ran further than any horse and barely lost. Even Calvin “Borail” understood the shortest way around the race track, as did Medina Spirit.

I look forward to your insight as the Derby approaches.

Well, I'm not sure what the best way to convey information is, but I can get you what you need. But I'll put a messy version in this message.

What I did was is put a limit on looking at the most recent 20 or so years (seems fair). Fortunately, I could find this link:
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=...M7ZUjv4zmgUlvd
This was a search for "Kentucky Derby Past Performances" and it provided a link to provide the PPs and results from 2000- 2018 under "kentucky derby ultimate past performances & results charts". It was simple to look through and amass a table. This file provides a nice little souvenir. Easy to fill in the most recent 3 years to answer the question fully. Most of the winning horses won their previous start, but then, an unscientific observation suggests that about 40% of the horses entered have won their last race!!! So if all of the horses are equal in ability, depending on the number of starters, you'd have a 40% shot at the winner having previously won their last race (once you have KYD points). But you know that the better, more favored horses have won their last races and have been prepping for a month and a half or are just the better, sharper ones.

8 of the 22 of the previous Kentucky Derbys were won by horses that did not win their previous race.
Four horses finished 2nd last time out, and one finished 3rd.
Giacomo, Mandaloun, and Mine That Bird did not even place (W/P/S) in their previous race.

The data is below, try to copy/paste it into an excel spreadsheet if you care.

Jockey rides are really important, but you have to pick your poison sometimes. A trainer may give a jockey instructions or let him ride based on conditions and post positions. Some of these jockeys DO NOT WANT TO BE TOLD ANYTHING. They are very polite and everything on TV, but they are talented and are making snap decisions based on conditions in the race, so there is something to be said for that. I remember Risen Star was the best horse in his year, but got stuck in traffic; he would have benefited from EQ's outside trip.

Larry
DevilHorse


Year Winner Condition Time Race Position
2021 Mandaloun[b] Fast 02:01.0 Louisiana Derby 6th
2020 Authentic Fast 02:00.6 Santa Anita Derby 1st
2019 Country House[c] Sloppy 02:03.9 Rebel 3rd
2018 Justify Sloppy 02:04.2 Santa Anita Derby 1st
2017 Always Dreaming Wet Fast (sealed) 02:03.6 Florida Derby 1st
2016 Nyquist Fast 02:01.3 Florida Derby 1st
2015 American Pharoah Fast 02:03.0 Arkansas Derby 1st
2014 California Chrome Fast 02:03.7 Santa Anita Derby 1st
2013 Orb Sloppy 02:02.9 Florida Derby 1st
2012 I'll Have Another Fast 02:01.8 Santa Anita Derby 1st
2011 Animal Kingdom Fast 02:02.0 Spiral-G3 1st
2010 Super Saver Sloppy 02:04.5 Arkansas Derby 2nd
2009 Mine That Bird Sloppy 02:02.7 Sunland Derby 4th
2008 Big Brown Fast 02:01.8 Florida Derby 1st
2007 Street Sense Fast 02:02.2 Bluegrass Stakes 2nd
2006 Barbaro Fast 02:01.4 Florida Derby 1st
2005 Giacomo Fast 02:02.8 Santa Anita Derby 4th
2004 Smarty Jones Sloppy 02:04.1 Arkansas Derby 1st
2003 Funny Cide Fast 02:01.2 Wood Memorial 2nd
2002 War Emblem Fast 02:01.1 Illinois Derby 1st
2001 Monarchos Fast 02:00.0 Wood Memorial 2nd
2000 Fusaichi Pegasus Fast 02:00.0 Wood Memorial 1st

[DevilHorse]

Just got a new flash that Midnight Bourbon passed away from an "acute gastrointestinal situation" on Sunday according to trainer Steve Assmussen.
What a nice horse. Sorry for all the connections and fans.

What a screwed up year of 3YOs that was.

Larry
DevilHorse

[DevilHorse]

This weekend there are some interesting races for older horses:

On Friday, at Keeneland, is (ominous noise in the background) the Doubledogdare:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
[ url above, Friday April 22, 2022, Keeneland - Race 9, PPs ]
3YO filly champion Malathaat makes her 4YO debut and avoids the big guns racing in the Apple Blossom on Saturday in favor of this softer spot. If you're looking for a surefire bet this weekend, this is about as close as you're going to get. Join the others on the bridge.

On Saturday, at Oaklawn Park, a select field of mares will contest the Apple Blossom:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...7/summary.html
[ url above, Saturday April 23, 2022, Oaklawn Park - Race 5, PPs ]
Letruska will try to win two Apple Blossoms in a row, and has a start under her belt. She will be challenged by another champion in Ce Ce (BC Sprint Champion) who is going 1 1/16. Also running are Maracuja and Clairiere; both of them impressed winning their respective optional claimers last time out. Clairiere won $1M as a 3YO last year. No wonder Malathaat took the easy ($350k) road. But as far as mares go, Letruska is the MAN.

Of course, the big international 'horse' race is Macron vs. Le Pen in France on Sunday. No PPs available for that one. I suspect that Le Pen's jockey Putin will make Le Pen overweight and she will falter in the stretch. If not, then I blame communist infiltration.

Larry
DevilHorse

[TheDevilMadeMeDoIt]

Just got a new flash that Midnight Bourbon passed away from an "acute gastrointestinal situation" on Sunday according to trainer Steve Assmussen.
What a nice horse. Sorry for all the connections and fans.

What a screwed up year of 3YOs that was.

Larry
DevilHorse

Wow, very sad. He was still in training as a 4 year old, which is unusual for a horse with several million dollars in earnings. I am guessing he would have run in the Stephen Foster at Churchill this summer.

Speaking of Churchill, they are going to run one day only in August with the best of the now defunct Arlington Park races, such as the Arlington Million. They had to reach an agreement, meaning pay money to Ellis Park, since that is their race day during their July and August meet. I guess that is good for Kentucky racing, but sad for the Arlington Park regulars. I never got to Arlington Park but it was one of the “newer” race facilities.

[DevilHorse]

Wow, very sad. He was still in training as a 4 year old, which is unusual for a horse with several million dollars in earnings. I am guessing he would have run in the Stephen Foster at Churchill this summer.

Speaking of Churchill, they are going to run one day only in August with the best of the now defunct Arlington Park races, such as the Arlington Million. They had to reach an agreement, meaning pay money to Ellis Park, since that is their race day during their July and August meet. I guess that is good for Kentucky racing, but sad for the Arlington Park regulars. I never got to Arlington Park but it was one of the “newer” race facilities.

Midnight Bourbon had just come off the track from a workout.

Arlington Park had been rebuilt after a 1985 fire:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l0v_ftKAkgE

This sequence of events also happened to Garden State Park which had a fire in 1977 and was rebuilt. I remember that the new track was beautiful with topiaries in the infield. Great grandstand and seating. The grandstand slowly sold out to retail in its later years and fans found it hard to find a place to stand during racing operation. Owners would have to walk a tortured path to get to the winner's circle. Bill Clinton posed in the winner's circle with a horse named Bubba Clinton there, just before he won the presidency (the human that is); both of them made the cover of The Horseman and Fair World the next week.
cherry-hill-new-jersey-usa-1st-november-1992-arkansas-governor-william-FDGXWX.jpg
There is the man himself with his namesake at the races.

Larry
DevilHorse

[DevilHorse]

The Bloodhorse article should excite both horse lovers and bettors. Having healthy horses running is good for everyone. Nothing spoils a day at the races like an ugly breakdown. I have seen some gruesome sights over the years. PETA is always lurking and looking for the opportunity to kill the sport. If you think I am overreacting just look at Ringling Bros. As they study their findings will they help explain why a huge favorite might run a lousy race? Their example shows a horse finishing second with a fractured leg, so maybe not. Some horse like great human athletes overcome things that shut down mere mortals. I am all for keeping the animals healthy and happy.

Well, horses have bad days, not necessarily from injuries, but from illness that doesn't present itself till that particular day. Often a race will cause a horse to spike a temperature or generate enough mucus to see an illness that otherwise would have come and gone if the horse was just in training. We have headachy days, just like horses. But we don't have our 'parents' scheduling races on those days.

NJ has done away with its parochial whipping rule...

But it has replaced it with the less severe, but soon to be National HISA whipping rule:

HISA rules will replace state racing commission rules throughout the country and the HISA whip rules allow for six overhand strikes. In addition, jockeys may tap the horse on the shoulder unlimited times if both their hands are on the reins.

With the crop/whip and reigns in hand, much of the communication is done by waving the stick in front of the horse's eyes or touching the shoulder (front) during the race, so mostly in the stretch will whipping be invoked. I'm not sure what an overhand vs. underhand strike is, but my guess they just mean the posterior of the horse. The talented jockeys really don't need the whip on most of the good horses. But then there are a few smart horses, that have talent, that need the encouragement. A whip may or may not change their mind. 1200 lbs of horseflesh is not going to care about a stick if it doesn't want to.

Larry
DevilHorse

[DevilHorse]

This weekend there are some interesting races for older horses:

On Friday, at Keeneland, is (ominous noise in the background) the Doubledogdare:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
[ url above, Friday April 22, 2022, Keeneland - Race 9, PPs ]
3YO filly champion Malathaat makes her 4YO debut and avoids the big guns racing in the Apple Blossom on Saturday in favor of this softer spot. If you're looking for a surefire bet this weekend, this is about as close as you're going to get. Join the others on the bridge.


Larry
DevilHorse

Malathaat gave a huge amount of ground to some speed horses early, but ground out a win yesterday:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
https://twitter.com/i/status/1517614874569940996
https://www.horseracingnation.com/ne...bledogdare_123

It was obvious to the astute watcher that: 1) Malathaat stayed on her left lead until the last 1/8 of a mile, indicating she was tired. This is like skipping on one leg all the time for us humans. Going around the turns in North America, horses are on the left lead, so switching to the right lead gives them a bit of a 'kick' or appears to let horses go turbo; when Malathaat did that, it didn't really help her too much. 2) Malathaat wasn't touched with the crop; hand ridden all the way. She was doing her best and was not encouraged to do more. (she could have even won at Monmouth ). She needed the race before taking on the best of the best. No Beyer out yet. Bonny South was 2nd in really good effort.

A 4YO won a maiden race at Keeneland yesterday:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
Aussie Pride, son of Curlin, was a $4.1M purchase making his 3rd start but his first on the dirt. This effort was only a few ticks slower than Malathaat's. All starts were as a 4YO.

Larry
DevilHorse

Larry
DevilHorse

[DevilHorse]

This weekend there are some interesting races for older horses:

On Saturday, at Oaklawn Park, a select field of mares will contest the Apple Blossom:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...7/summary.html
[ url above, Saturday April 23, 2022, Oaklawn Park - Race 5, PPs ]
Letruska will try to win two Apple Blossoms in a row, and has a start under her belt. She will be challenged by another champion in Ce Ce (BC Sprint Champion) who is going 1 1/16. Also running are Maracuja and Clairiere; both of them impressed winning their respective optional claimers last time out. Clairiere won $1M as a 3YO last year. No wonder Malathaat took the easy ($350k) road. But as far as mares go, Letruska is the MAN.

Of course, the big international 'horse' race is Macron vs. Le Pen in France on Sunday. No PPs available for that one. I suspect that Le Pen's jockey Putin will make Le Pen overweight and she will falter in the stretch. If not, then I blame communist infiltration.

Larry
DevilHorse

The Apple Blossom was quite the race, but Letruska showed who was the boss:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
https://twitter.com/i/status/1517949914755452929
Clairere and Ce Ce are top mares as well; if you don't believe that, consider that:
1) Letruska received a 103 Beyer for her effort (Letruska's best ever)
2) Look how far back the other horses were behind the top 3; 17 lengths. Those were graded stakes winners.

This race will move all 3 mares along. Will Malathaat need yet another race to get her in shape for this bunch? If she waits till the Personal Ensign, then maybe.

Only 2 weeks till the KYD. Only 1 week till the week of festivities. Are you up for the Run for the Rodents? Run for the Rose'?

Larry
DevilHorse

[DevilHorse]

I've had a few odds and ends thoughts that I thought I'd share. Nothing of substance, but slightly tangential to the KYD.

Belmont opens by the end of the week. The closing of the loooong winter Aqueduct meet always give that great feeling that the prep season is over and the Classics are here. Obviously Churchill Downs also opens next week and we will see who is in the box next week soon. Can't wait.

We're seeing the final races in the Keeneland meet. And some of these races just gives us pause. I do follow some of the precocious 2YOs way too long into their 4YO and 5YO year. Do you remember Dennis' Moment? He was a $400k yearling contender (favorite in the BC Juvenile) a few years ago, but never materialized as a 3YO. He is in on Friday at Keeneland:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...99/summary.htm
[ URL above, Friday April 29, 2022, Keeneland - Race 9, PPs ]
This is an Optional Claiming race for $80k, with a purse of $130k. Which means that $78k goes to the winner. Essentially, the winning horse gets his own price if he wins the race. It's like Spartacus winning his freedom in the arena. [shake my head emoji]

In another race on the Keeneland card, there is the "usual" $100k 3YO maiden race. OK, the winner gets $60k, then the winner has to have a much tougher race in the $110k allowance condition (not a respectable purse step up with difficulty). However, think about the 2nd place horse. His connections get $30k, and then he races against similar horses again. You can make a nice living at $30k a month.

There are a few young sires that look like they will be permanent fixtures in the top 20 if not top 10 rankings for a while, and they will be represented in the KYD and the Oaks. Gun Runner is obvious (Cyberknife, Taiba, Early Voting, Echo Zulu). Also, Upstart (Upstart, Kathleen O), Not This Time (Epicenter, Simplification, In Due Time, Race Day (White Abarrio, Barber Road). These sires would seem to demand extra attention in maiden races with all other information bZandon, Kathleen Oeing equal.

Zandon (winner of the Bluegrass Stakes) has been putting in some sharp workouts in before the KYD, and some have been longer workouts. While others are content to have slower workouts, this horse is being asked to work. If he holds up, this is interesting. Just a mental note. I believe he shipped to CD yesterday.

Larry
DevilHorse

[TheDevilMadeMeDoIt]

I've had a few odds and ends thoughts that I thought I'd share. Nothing of substance, but slightly tangential to the KYD.

Belmont opens by the end of the week. The closing of the loooong winter Aqueduct meet always give that great feeling that the prep season is over and the Classics are here. Obviously Churchill Downs also opens next week and we will see who is in the box next week soon. Can't wait.

We're seeing the final races in the Keeneland meet. And some of these races just gives us pause. I do follow some of the precocious 2YOs way too long into their 4YO and 5YO year. Do you remember Dennis' Moment? He was a $400k yearling contender (favorite in the BC Juvenile) a few years ago, but never materialized as a 3YO. He is in on Friday at Keeneland:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...99/summary.htm
[ URL above, Friday April 29, 2022, Keeneland - Race 9, PPs ]
This is an Optional Claiming race for $80k, with a purse of $130k. Which means that $78k goes to the winner. Essentially, the winning horse gets his own price if he wins the race. It's like Spartacus winning his freedom in the arena. [shake my head emoji]

In another race on the Keeneland card, there is the "usual" $100k 3YO maiden race. OK, the winner gets $60k, then the winner has to have a much tougher race in the $110k allowance condition (not a respectable purse step up with difficulty). However, think about the 2nd place horse. His connections get $30k, and then he races against similar horses again. You can make a nice living at $30k a month.

There are a few young sires that look like they will be permanent fixtures in the top 20 if not top 10 rankings for a while, and they will be represented in the KYD and the Oaks. Gun Runner is obvious (Cyberknife, Taiba, Early Voting, Echo Zulu). Also, Upstart (Upstart, Kathleen O), Not This Time (Epicenter, Simplification, In Due Time, Race Day (White Abarrio, Barber Road). These sires would seem to demand extra attention in maiden races with all other information bZandon, Kathleen Oeing equal.

Zandon (winner of the Bluegrass Stakes) has been putting in some sharp workouts in before the KYD, and some have been longer workouts. While others are content to have slower workouts, this horse is being asked to work. If he holds up, this is interesting. Just a mental note. I believe he shipped to CD yesterday.

Larry
DevilHorse

Dennis’ Moment must have had some injuries as he has gone months between races several times in his career. He won last fall at Keeneland but 1 win for his last 9 starts does not create much confidence. Hard to believe he was the favorite in the Breeders Cup futurity as a 2 year old. As his trainer Dale Romans is a popular Kentucky trainer the betting public will probably know if he is ready for a good effort. Yet, if he goes off at low odds not sure he can be trusted. Imagine the roller coaster ride of his owner’s emotions. They see him win a stakes race as a 2 year old that propels him to the favorite at Breeders Cup. They have to think he may be a super horse. Then he runs terrible and now only 1 win in last 9 races. So a lot more lows than highs. I guess that’s the life of a horse owner.

[DevilHorse]

Dennis’ Moment must have had some injuries as he has gone months between races several times in his career. He won last fall at Keeneland but 1 win for his last 9 starts does not create much confidence. Hard to believe he was the favorite in the Breeders Cup futurity as a 2 year old. As his trainer Dale Romans is a popular Kentucky trainer the betting public will probably know if he is ready for a good effort. Yet, if he goes off at low odds not sure he can be trusted. Imagine the roller coaster ride of his owner’s emotions. They see him win a stakes race as a 2 year old that propels him to the favorite at Breeders Cup. They have to think he may be a super horse. Then he runs terrible and now only 1 win in last 9 races. So a lot more lows than highs. I guess that’s the life of a horse owner.

The owners must really like this horse. Perhaps will keep him for stud duty. He is a stakes winning son of Tiznow, and that sire line is dwindling. It took an incredible hit when Midnight Bourbon died a week ago. Tiznow is already out of commission as a sire. Cee's Tizzy or Tiz Wonderful might be the best sires from that line at the moment and that's nothing to write home about.

Larry
DevilHorse

[DevilHorse]

Here is a really interesting chart relating average horse's time off before the KYD and the winner's.

Number of days between the final prep and KY derby since 1973*. Derby field Average (orange), Derby field Median (blue), Winner** (black dot).

kyDerbyTimeOff1.jpg

The trend in time off with time is obvious, and although not a rule, the winner tends to have more rest than the average (but not always).

Larry
DevilHorse

[DevilHorse]

More preliminary information:

Do you like speed figures?
Well you get each flavor of speed figures, depending on the PPs that you get.

The Brisnet/Briswatch PPs that I try to provide use their own Speed Figures, while the Daily Race Form (DRF) use the Beyer Speed Figures (Beyers) which started it all.
TimeformUS is another speed figure. Lot to discuss here:
https://www.americasbestracing.net/g...ures-explained

For this KYD, here is a comparative list of Speed Figures for the 2022 KYD:
https://www.horseracingnation.com/ne...contenders_123

Still, this is all we can provide before we know, jockeys, late workouts, post positions, track conditions, horse condition.. but who needs that when you have Speed Figures.

Larry
DevilHorse

[DevilHorse]

I've been noticing that Crown's Pride has been working at Churchill Downs and has plenty of KYD points (and doesn't need them). Who is Crown's Pride? He won the UAE Derby and gets an automatic starting berth in the KYD gate. His back pedigree is loaded with american classic horse names and sires (i.e., Sunday Silence, Seattle Slew, Secretariat), and his Dosage is low (indicates he can handle a long race). Although horses from Japan and Saudi Arabia have not fared well in the KYD, they have gone on to win a few Graded stakes in the US, so I wouldn't discount this horse too much. A horse from Japan or (directly from) Saudi Arabia will win the KYD one of these days.

In my opinion, the UAE Derby was a fairly slow race, all other things being equal (almost 2:00.0 for 1 3/16??). But I didn't see a speed figure on that race. But the video in the last article below does a tremendous job of breaking down Crown's Pride's 2 stakes races.

Here is a little more (advanced) information for you to chew over:
https://www.horseracingnation.com/horse/Crown_Pride#

https://www.horseracingnation.com/ho...Pride_pedigree

https://www.horseracingnation.com/ne...puzzle_fun_123

Handicapping for the KYD is never linear, but 4 dimensional chess is just not fair.

Larry
DevilHorse

[DevilHorse]

Slim Pickins rides again.

Not much caught my interest for this weekend (although turf watchers might find something at Santa Anita).

Express Train tests a few fast horses in the Californian on Saturday:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...99/summary.htm
[ URL above, April 30, 2022, Santa Anita Park - Race 6 , PPs ]
Express Train is the best older horse these days on the West Coast. He takes on Spielberg (under new management), Stilleto Boy, and the lightly raced Shaaz (also newly managed).

I noticed that there is a small stakes race on Sunday named after Silky Sullivan at Golden Gate Park. That horse is long before my time, but is a notable horse in folklore.
Before there was Arrogate's Dubai World Cup performance, there was Silky Sullivan. But Arrogate was no Silky Sullivan!
Here is a short youtube video on him:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UrSYJWK_8lg
and here are his Past Performances:
silkySullivan1.jpg
How brave/crazy was Manny Ycaza to fall back almost 30 lengths before letting this horse take aim and go is beyond me. That is worth a $2 ticket, just for the thrill. This horse raced at a high level too; he won the Santa Anita Derby. Incredible.

Belmont and Churchill Downs will open this weekend. Things will start to get busy next week.

Larry
DevilHorse

[TheDevilMadeMeDoIt]

Slim Pickins rides again.

Not much caught my interest for this weekend (although turf watchers might find something at Santa Anita).

Express Train tests a few fast horses in the Californian on Saturday:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...99/summary.htm
[ URL above, April 30, 2022, Santa Anita Park - Race 6 , PPs ]
Express Train is the best older horse these days on the West Coast. He takes on Spielberg (under new management), Stilleto Boy, and the lightly raced Shaaz (also newly managed).

I noticed that there is a small stakes race on Sunday named after Silky Sullivan at Golden Gate Park. That horse is long before my time, but is a notable horse in folklore.
Before there was Arrogate's Dubai World Cup performance, there was Silky Sullivan. But Arrogate was no Silky Sullivan!
Here is a short youtube video on him:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UrSYJWK_8lg
and here are his Past Performances:
silkySullivan1.jpg
How brave/crazy was Manny Ycaza to fall back almost 30 lengths before letting this horse take aim and go is beyond me. That is worth a $2 ticket, just for the thrill. This horse raced at a high level too; he won the Santa Anita Derby. Incredible.

Belmont and Churchill Downs will open this weekend. Things will start to get busy next week.

Larry
DevilHorse

For those who like a good horse story, read about Silky Sullivan on Wiki. He didn’t run a lick in the first half or so of the race. According to Bill Shoemaker the jockey couldn’t get him to run. He just sat there and then held on for dear life when Silky kicked it in gear. Then he flew in the last couple of furlongs, with ridiculously fast fractions. He was quite a character. A book on Silky could easily be as entertaining as Seabisquit.

[DevilHorse]

I've had a few odds and ends thoughts that I thought I'd share. Nothing of substance, but slightly tangential to the KYD.

Belmont opens by the end of the week. The closing of the loooong winter Aqueduct meet always give that great feeling that the prep season is over and the Classics are here. Obviously Churchill Downs also opens next week and we will see who is in the box next week soon. Can't wait.

We're seeing the final races in the Keeneland meet. And some of these races just gives us pause. I do follow some of the precocious 2YOs way too long into their 4YO and 5YO year. Do you remember Dennis' Moment? He was a $400k yearling contender (favorite in the BC Juvenile) a few years ago, but never materialized as a 3YO. He is in on Friday at Keeneland:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...99/summary.htm
[ URL above, Friday April 29, 2022, Keeneland - Race 9, PPs ]
This is an Optional Claiming race for $80k, with a purse of $130k. Which means that $78k goes to the winner. Essentially, the winning horse gets his own price if he wins the race. It's like Spartacus winning his freedom in the arena. [shake my head emoji]

In another race on the Keeneland card, there is the "usual" $100k 3YO maiden race. OK, the winner gets $60k, then the winner has to have a much tougher race in the $110k allowance condition (not a respectable purse step up with difficulty). However, think about the 2nd place horse. His connections get $30k, and then he races against similar horses again. You can make a nice living at $30k a month.

There are a few young sires that look like they will be permanent fixtures in the top 20 if not top 10 rankings for a while, and they will be represented in the KYD and the Oaks. Gun Runner is obvious (Cyberknife, Taiba, Early Voting, Echo Zulu). Also, Upstart (Upstart, Kathleen O), Not This Time (Epicenter, Simplification, In Due Time, Race Day (White Abarrio, Barber Road). These sires would seem to demand extra attention in maiden races with all other information bZandon, Kathleen Oeing equal.

Zandon (winner of the Bluegrass Stakes) has been putting in some sharp workouts in before the KYD, and some have been longer workouts. While others are content to have slower workouts, this horse is being asked to work. If he holds up, this is interesting. Just a mental note. I believe he shipped to CD yesterday.

Larry
DevilHorse

FYI, Dennis' Moment finished 2nd in that $130k race for $80k Optional Claimers:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
The race was won in a snappy 1:16 for 6.5f. Nothing to write home about, but then this isn't home. Good maybe for an Oklahoma stud.

A somber word about people who work with horses. As you know, I have a great deal of respect and love for the animals. I've mentioned how the jockeys are in peril when riding, even though they are amazing athletes. There are many more people who work with these animals who also are at risk. These horses work in the mornings, 6 days a week, when they are in training, and get brought out to the paddocks for grass or walks when they are not in training. That's a lot human handling. Anyone who has seen the movie Seabiscuit remembers the scene when Red is riding a horse for his old boss and is injured when his mount gets spooked. This week, a young, but experienced, rider named Callie Witt was thrown from a horse while training at Keeneland and died.
https://www.wkyt.com/2022/04/29/ride...rse-keeneland/
It was a freak accident. People are thrown from horses or kicked everyday. I've been kicked. These are the risks when you work with these majestic beasts. It is wonderful to be around these animals. It isn't just a job. I extend my condolences to Callie's family.

Larry
DevilHorse

Larry
DevilHorse

[TheDevilMadeMeDoIt]

It’s hard to talk about money after reading the story of the death of a young girl who was chasing her dream. My condolences to her family and what they are going through.

A four year old maiden, Summer Anthem, who was purchased for $8,000 won yesterday at Keeneland in his second start. His owners received $57,000 prize money. He had won over $70,000 in his only two races. Then they sold him last night in the Keeneland sale of racing age horses for $150,000. So over $200,000 profit on an $8,000 purchase, not considering training, jockey and other fees. Still a nice return on their investment. Not sure how often horse owners actually turn a profit, but good for them. It was certainly better than being in the stock market yesterday!

[DevilHorse]

It’s hard to talk about money after reading the story of the death of a young girl who was chasing her dream. My condolences to her family and what they are going through.

A four year old maiden, Summer Anthem, who was purchased for $8,000 won yesterday at Keeneland in his second start. His owners received $57,000 prize money. He had won over $70,000 in his only two races. Then they sold him last night in the Keeneland sale of racing age horses for $150,000. So over $200,000 profit on an $8,000 purchase, not considering training, jockey and other fees. Still a nice return on their investment. Not sure how often horse owners actually turn a profit, but good for them. It was certainly better than being in the stock market yesterday!

Speaking of money and the Keeneland sale..

I had mentioned a few young sires, with multiple possible starters in the KYD, a few frames ago. One of those was Upstart. Allow me to digress about the money in the stud game if you get a good one:

In the Keeneland sale, a share of Upstart was sold for $450k. I could not find how many stud fees were associated with this share, which is 2.5% of the stallion. But top studs are producing about 120 foals these days, so lets guess that a 1/40th of the horse gets you 3 trips to the stud. In 2018/2019/2020/2021 Upstart's stud fee was $10k. His yearlings sold for $33k. But in this past 2021, the price of those that came to market have increased to $113k average; his 3YO first crop was showing now. In 2022, his 2nd crop are 3YOs. His stud fee is now private. A guess could be that his stud fee this spring has been in the $30k range, and perhaps variable and growing throughout the spring (mares have been coming to him from Feb through this June). What if one of his kids wins the KYD or the Kentucky Oaks (Kathleen O)? If the stud lives 15 more years, and services 120 mares a year, that's 1800 fees at 30k. That's $54M to be split between the farm and the new owner(s). Plus the farm gets fees for boarding the mare during her visit (usually until she is pronounced in-foal), and insemination fees, etc.. Could be a good investment if Upstart does well. This is probably an oversimplification, but what's a factor of 2 amongst friends?

Larry
DevilHorse

[DevilHorse]

Slim Pickins rides again.

Not much caught my interest for this weekend (although turf watchers might find something at Santa Anita).

Express Train tests a few fast horses in the Californian on Saturday:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...99/summary.htm
[ URL above, April 30, 2022, Santa Anita Park - Race 6 , PPs ]
Express Train is the best older horse these days on the West Coast. He takes on Spielberg (under new management), Stilleto Boy, and the lightly raced Shaaz (also newly managed).



Larry
DevilHorse

Stiletto Boy was too much for Express Train:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
Tremendous job by jockey Hernandez, controlling the pace, and maximizing SB's chances.
Stiletto Boy is the 8th Grade I winner by 2011 Preakness winner Shackleford, who left our shores to be at stud in Japan 2 years ago.
[and now for some digression]
Remember, the winner of the El Camino Real Derby gets an automatic birth in the Preakness; Rombauer used that ticket last year to win. Blackadder was this year's El Camino Real winner, but I don't think he will be in the KYD. He was actually sold to new owners in the earlier (this week) mentioned Keeneland sale (interesting sale, no??), for only $250k.
https://www.drf.com/news/blackadder-...ent-after-sale
According to the article, the new owner (and very good trainer) Cristophe Clement says he remembers the horse from 2 years ago when he sold for $620k. Since then, Blackadder obviously won the El Camino Real on synthetics, but finished 9th in the Blue Grass Stakes.
Just as another connection for those of you who follow TVG/NYRA broadcasts.. Cristophe Clement is now the father-in-law of broadcaster Acacia Courtney who recently married his son Miguel. Cristophe usually has a stable up at the Saratoga meet, and along the Eastern seaboard.

So, which is the better deal? A racing Blackadder for $250k or a breeding share of Upstart for $450k?

Although I'm not that into turfdom, an interesting turf maiden race is happening in the 4th race at Belmont today (5/1/2022). Happy May Day BTW:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
[ URL above, May 1, 2022, Belmont Park - Race 4, PPs ]
Start with the firster by Chad Brown. Impeccably bred Home Bred by super (turf) sire Dubawi, out of the productive mare Cover Song. Owned by Bobby Flay. Do you like the Food Channel? Bobby is a visible and vocal supporter of TBred racing and has done well with his breeding operation. I recall that one of his homebreds won a Breeder's Cup most recently. Also in the field is a $1.6M firster for Shadwell Stable. Both of these horses are trained by Chad Brown and are 3YO fillies. He's playing the long game with them. We could have a long discussion about uncoupled (in the wagering) horses, trained by the same trainer.

I noticed that Cyberknife and Zozos both had low 1:11.x workouts at 6f yesterday. Just wow! One week before the KYD. I'm not sure I recall that long a workout at speeds that could win most allowance races, but then, these are top of their generation horses.

Larry
DevilHorse