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  1. #41

    Saturday 2/5/2022 Kentucky Derby Trail

    Kentucky Derby Prep races:

    Those with derby points:

    At Aqueduct, the Withers:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [ URL above, Saturday February 5, 2022, Aqueduct – Race 8, PPs ]
    There will be a big rain/ice even the day before. So maybe Constitutionlawyer (an apparent mudder) will have a shot. (Julius the Grape) Grantham moves up in class, but probably doesn’t have a shot. Smarten Up closed strongly in the Jerome on Courvoisier who is also in the field. Early Voting won his debut and steps up in company here. Wide open race. Looks like a lot of early speed, so I’ll give Smarten Up a good shot.

    At Gulfstream Park, the Holy Bull Stakes:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [ URL above, Saturday February 5, 2022, Gulfstream Park – Race 11, PPs ]
    Cajun’s Magic has the highest rating but it was in September, but Simplification has the strongest looking win over the track in the Mucho Macho Man. Mo Donegal is down from NY for Pletcher and won the Remsen. Tiz The Bomb finished 2nd in the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile.. Turf, but last time on dirt, broke his maiden by 14 at odds-on. If Simplification (by Not This Time) runs back to his last race, he wins.

    The Robert Lewis is on Sunday, and I’ll update as soon as I identify the PPs.

    On the distaff side, the Forward Gal will be run at Gulfstream Park:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [ URL above, Saturday February 5, 2022, Gulfstream Park – Race 8, PPs ]
    Radio Days looks like she will be a favorite here.

    Another 3YO race that will potentially have KYD implications (but offers no KYD points to the winner) is the Swale at Gulfstream Park:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [ URL above, Saturday February 5, 2022, Gulfstream Park – Race 5, PPs ]
    As I mention each year, Swale was a wonderful horse, who won the KYD and the Belmont Stakes, and died soon after the Belmont. He may well have established a second prong of the Seattle Slew line after A.P. Indy. What a loss. In this race, at the sprint distance of 7furlongs, My Prankster, Dean Delivers, and In Dreams are the stand outs. I’d have to go with In Dreams and Irad Ortiz onboard.

    Other races on Saturday of interest are:

    The Santa Monica at Santa Anita for 4YOF:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...99/summary.htm
    [ URL above, Saturday February 5, 2022, Santa Anita Park – Race 6, PPs ]
    It is Ce Ce against Kalypso. The winner is Ce Ce.

    Also at Santa Anita is the San Pasqual for 4YOs:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...99/summary.htm
    [ URL above, Saturday February 5, 2022, Santa Anita Park – Race 8, PPs ]
    This will bring together Express Train, Eight Rings, and the return of Spielberg to the races.
    Express Train has the class to win. Spielberg has been out since last year's Florida Derby (obviously with an injury); he'll have to prove himself. Eight Rings is just not quite Express Train, but these early year races can surprise you.

    Here is an interesting 3YOC maiden race at Gulfstream Park (#6):
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [ URL above, Saturday February 5, 2022, Gulfstream Park – Race 6, PPs ]
    Sir For Sure and Grand David are the more experienced returners, but the firsters are more interesting.
    Pletcher has a pair. My Romeo Lima is a $610k yearling, making his debut with Irad Ortiz, with some ho hum bullet works (few horses and times were modest).
    Pletcher's other firster Ankara caught my eye; he's a homebred whose dam is out of A.P. Indy. Workouts are also hohum, but the pedigree is top drawer.

    BTW, Dr. Fishman, who supplied the drugs for that big doping scandal that ensnared all of those trainers (Maximum Security, etc..) was found guilty yesterday.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  2. #42

    A Real Treat For Friday

    Some stuff for today.

    OK, 8:20 Meydan time, that looks like 11:30am ET, R5 in Dubai, UAE, Hot Rod Charlie is running in the Maktoum Challenge out of post 3:
    The PPs are uninformative and unreadable, but it looks like the race will be on TVG.
    https://www.amwager.com/wp-content/u...222.pdf#page=7

    Two interesting races at Gulfstream Park:

    Pletcher has some interesting horses:
    Race 6 is Pigott:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [ URL above, February 4, 2022 , Gulfstream Park - Race 6, PPs ]
    Pigott is 4 years old, making his first start and was purchased for $1.2M.

    Race 9 is a bit more interesting. It is an Optional Claimer:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [ URL above, February 4, 2022 , Gulfstream Park - Race 9, PPs ]
    In this race are the first time winners Iron Works and American Icon. They both appear to have talent, and either one, or both can find themselves on the KY Derby trail in short order, with a good race today.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  3. #43
    Quote Originally Posted by DevilHorse View Post
    Some stuff for today.

    OK, 8:20 Meydan time, that looks like 11:30am ET, R5 in Dubai, UAE, Hot Rod Charlie is running in the Maktoum Challenge out of post 3:
    The PPs are uninformative and unreadable, but it looks like the race will be on TVG.
    https://www.amwager.com/wp-content/u...222.pdf#page=7

    Two interesting races at Gulfstream Park:

    Pletcher has some interesting horses:
    Race 6 is Pigott:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [ URL above, February 4, 2022 , Gulfstream Park - Race 6, PPs ]
    Pigott is 4 years old, making his first start and was purchased for $1.2M.

    Race 9 is a bit more interesting. It is an Optional Claimer:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [ URL above, February 4, 2022 , Gulfstream Park - Race 9, PPs ]
    In this race are the first time winners Iron Works and American Icon. They both appear to have talent, and either one, or both can find themselves on the KY Derby trail in short order, with a good race today.

    Larry
    DevilHorse
    Just another Saturday.. Carolina gets Holy Hell, but just before we get Holy Bull !
    To facilitate the pregame activities, Equibase provides us with many of the afternoon Stakes in one pdf:
    http://www.equibase.com/tdn/pastperf...2-05&rn=3&de=D
    Thanks Big E!

    Hot Rod Charlie won for fun in Dubai yesterday at odds of 1/5. Another horse went with him till the stretch, but then HRC (no not her! Really!) just drew away easily
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1489636027031601153
    The whole race:
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1489636059369459712

    Pigott ran like a .. well pig. He is a huge animal and raced greenly. He may yet show his talent as he did seem to keep up early but tired.

    Everything was looking good in the 9th race for the Pletcher duo, distancing themselves from the pack, when one colt just pulled and accelerated past them:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    In Due Time stalked the pace setters and passed American Icon and Iron Works with ease. The son of Not This Time (seems like that name keeps coming up) is definitely a horse to watch, as he is now 2 for 3.
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1489733235634413569
    Trained by Kelly Breen, a Monmouth Park based trainer, sometimes gets some good ones.


    Larry
    DevilHorse
    Last edited by DevilHorse; 02-05-2022 at 06:39 AM.

  4. #44
    On Sunday 2/6/2022, it is:

    On the KYD Trail, at Santa Anita is the Robert B. Lewis:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...99/summary.htm
    [ URL above, Sunday February 6, 2022, Santa Anita - Race 8, PPs ]
    Messier will be the likely favorite. But Flavian Prat has chosen to ride the less experienced, and slower Sir London instead of Baffert's horse. Is it because Messier can not get any KYD points from this race on Messier? Wharton, Cabo Spirit, and Happy Jack all make this a challenging race.

    For the 3YOF, in Race 3, is the Las Virgenes:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...99/summary.htm
    [ URL above, Sunday February 6, 2022, Santa Anita - Race 3, PPs ]
    Eda, Adale Manor, and Queen Of Thorns will be the contenders, probably in that sequence. This is a very impressive, but small group of 5 fillies.


    The Ruthless at Aqueduct for 3YOF:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [ URL above, Sunday February 6, 2022, Aqueduct - Race 8, PPs ]
    Champagne Poetry looks to be the favorite, although Miss Interpret has a great name.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  5. #45
    Join Date
    Sep 2010
    Location
    Franklin TN
    Just read an article in the Louisville Courier Journal about Baffert’s hearing before the Ky. horse Racing Commission tomorrow. In New York Baffert’s attorney made a claim that the amount of steroids found in Medina Spirit would not enhance his running and that it came from a topical application, not injection. The CJ article explains that under Ky. rules neither distinction makes a difference. The only test is whether the horse tested positive. The article also explained that since Gamine tested positive for the same thing in the 2020 Ky Oaks, held the prior September, that the HRC would come down hard on Baffert. As a repeat offender he would probably receive a suspension which would be honored at other tracks.

    There is a parallel court case pending in Kentucky. The Judge has already told the parties to go back to the HRC which has the ultimate say.

    My advice to owners and jockeys who want a Derby horse is to look elsewhere this year. Baffert’s not going anywhere near Churchill Downs.

    All lawsuits of this nature involving a state entity like the HRC have to be brought in Franklin County, home of the State Capital and in the middle of horse country. The Judges in Franklin County are elected by the people of Franklin County, which is a relatively small semi rural county midway between Lexington and Louisville. Having practiced law in Kentucky for 45 years, my guess is Baffert is screwed. I would place his odds at about the same as UNC beating Duke last night.

  6. #46
    Quote Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMeDoIt View Post
    Just read an article in the Louisville Courier Journal about Baffert’s hearing before the Ky. horse Racing Commission tomorrow. In New York Baffert’s attorney made a claim that the amount of steroids found in Medina Spirit would not enhance his running and that it came from a topical application, not injection. The CJ article explains that under Ky. rules neither distinction makes a difference. The only test is whether the horse tested positive. The article also explained that since Gamine tested positive for the same thing in the 2020 Ky Oaks, held the prior September, that the HRC would come down hard on Baffert. As a repeat offender he would probably receive a suspension which would be honored at other tracks.

    There is a parallel court case pending in Kentucky. The Judge has already told the parties to go back to the HRC which has the ultimate say.

    My advice to owners and jockeys who want a Derby horse is to look elsewhere this year. Baffert’s not going anywhere near Churchill Downs.

    All lawsuits of this nature involving a state entity like the HRC have to be brought in Franklin County, home of the State Capital and in the middle of horse country. The Judges in Franklin County are elected by the people of Franklin County, which is a relatively small semi rural county midway between Lexington and Louisville. Having practiced law in Kentucky for 45 years, my guess is Baffert is screwed. I would place his odds at about the same as UNC beating Duke last night.
    Thanks for your take on what's happening tomorrow. I can provide updates as they come in.

    In related news, what also hurts here is that HISA looks like it has some major problems. If you recall, HISA was supposed to standardize practices and resources to test for drug abuses in Horse racing. There was a lot of grumbling to begin with, but this week there were lawsuits brought against HISA as being unconstitutional by the state of Texas as violating its rights to run its operation to test for drug violators (and to collect all of those fees) which has been operating (and no doubt missing the violators) for years.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  7. #47
    Quote Originally Posted by DevilHorse View Post
    Kentucky Derby Prep races:

    Those with derby points:

    At Aqueduct, the Withers:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [ URL above, Saturday February 5, 2022, Aqueduct – Race 8, PPs ]
    There will be a big rain/ice even the day before. So maybe Constitutionlawyer (an apparent mudder) will have a shot. (Julius the Grape) Grantham moves up in class, but probably doesn’t have a shot. Smarten Up closed strongly in the Jerome on Courvoisier who is also in the field. Early Voting won his debut and steps up in company here. Wide open race. Looks like a lot of early speed, so I’ll give Smarten Up a good shot.

    At Gulfstream Park, the Holy Bull Stakes:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [ URL above, Saturday February 5, 2022, Gulfstream Park – Race 11, PPs ]
    Cajun’s Magic has the highest rating but it was in September, but Simplification has the strongest looking win over the track in the Mucho Macho Man. Mo Donegal is down from NY for Pletcher and won the Remsen. Tiz The Bomb finished 2nd in the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile.. Turf, but last time on dirt, broke his maiden by 14 at odds-on. If Simplification (by Not This Time) runs back to his last race, he wins.


    On the distaff side, the Forward Gal will be run at Gulfstream Park:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [ URL above, Saturday February 5, 2022, Gulfstream Park – Race 8, PPs ]
    Radio Days looks like she will be a favorite here.

    Another 3YO race that will potentially have KYD implications (but offers no KYD points to the winner) is the Swale at Gulfstream Park:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [ URL above, Saturday February 5, 2022, Gulfstream Park – Race 5, PPs ]
    As I mention each year, Swale was a wonderful horse, who won the KYD and the Belmont Stakes, and died soon after the Belmont. He may well have established a second prong of the Seattle Slew line after A.P. Indy. What a loss. In this race, at the sprint distance of 7furlongs, My Prankster, Dean Delivers, and In Dreams are the stand outs. I’d have to go with In Dreams and Irad Ortiz onboard.

    Other races on Saturday of interest are:

    The Santa Monica at Santa Anita for 4YOF:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...99/summary.htm
    [ URL above, Saturday February 5, 2022, Santa Anita Park – Race 6, PPs ]
    It is Ce Ce against Kalypso. The winner is Ce Ce.

    Also at Santa Anita is the San Pasqual for 4YOs:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...99/summary.htm
    [ URL above, Saturday February 5, 2022, Santa Anita Park – Race 8, PPs ]
    This will bring together Express Train, Eight Rings, and the return of Spielberg to the races.
    Express Train has the class to win. Spielberg has been out since last year's Florida Derby (obviously with an injury); he'll have to prove himself. Eight Rings is just not quite Express Train, but these early year races can surprise you.

    Here is an interesting 3YOC maiden race at Gulfstream Park (#6):
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [ URL above, Saturday February 5, 2022, Gulfstream Park – Race 6, PPs ]
    Sir For Sure and Grand David are the more experienced returners, but the firsters are more interesting.
    Pletcher has a pair. My Romeo Lima is a $610k yearling, making his debut with Irad Ortiz, with some ho hum bullet works (few horses and times were modest).
    Pletcher's other firster Ankara caught my eye; he's a homebred whose dam is out of A.P. Indy. Workouts are also hohum, but the pedigree is top drawer.

    BTW, Dr. Fishman, who supplied the drugs for that big doping scandal that ensnared all of those trainers (Maximum Security, etc..) was found guilty yesterday.

    Larry
    DevilHorse
    At Aqueduct, Early Voting took over the Withers:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1490077176334585859
    Constitutionlawyer went to the front but faded fast on the drying out track. But Early Voting went with him and controlled the race and made a strong statement for being a strong contender for the KYD.
    Although visually impressive, he was awarded only a 78 Beyer for this effort.

    At Gulfstream Park, White Abarrio won the Holy Bull:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1490105103126249482
    The son of Race Day stalked the pace and took over on the far turn and never looked back. Simplification left slowly and was at a disadvantage. He moved up through the race but never threatened and finished 2nd. Mo Donegal had the worst trip of all and was pinned; when MD finally got out, he was moving fastest of all and was 3rd. Tiz The Bomb was very nervous and washed out before entering the gait and has an excuse. White Abarrio got a 3YO best 97 Beyer on the day.

    In the Swale, My Prankster won and was awarded a 90 Beyer:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on

    In the Forward Gal, Girl With A Dream won over Radio Days:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    Radio Days got off last and may have been best on the day, but was unable to make up for the lost ground.
    Girl With A Dream received an 86 Beyer.

    At Santa Anita, in the Santa Monica, for older sprinting mares, Merneith beat Ce Ce and Kalypso and was awarded a 102 Beyer:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on

    In the Las Virgines, Express Train was an overwelming winner and was awarded a 101 Beyer:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on

    Today is the Robert B Lewis with KYD points (if you aren't trained by Bob Baffert).

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  8. #48
    Quote Originally Posted by DevilHorse View Post
    On Sunday 2/6/2022, it is:

    On the KYD Trail, at Santa Anita is the Robert B. Lewis:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...99/summary.htm
    [ URL above, Sunday February 6, 2022, Santa Anita - Race 8, PPs ]
    Messier will be the likely favorite. But Flavian Prat has chosen to ride the less experienced, and slower Sir London instead of Baffert's horse. Is it because Messier can not get any KYD points from this race on Messier? Wharton, Cabo Spirit, and Happy Jack all make this a challenging race.

    For the 3YOF, in Race 3, is the Las Virgenes:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...99/summary.htm
    [ URL above, Sunday February 6, 2022, Santa Anita - Race 3, PPs ]
    Eda, Adale Manor, and Queen Of Thorns will be the contenders, probably in that sequence. This is a very impressive, but small group of 5 fillies.


    The Ruthless at Aqueduct for 3YOF:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [ URL above, Sunday February 6, 2022, Aqueduct - Race 8, PPs ]
    Champagne Poetry looks to be the favorite, although Miss Interpret has a great name.

    Larry
    DevilHorse
    In the Robert B. Lewis, Messier hip checked the rest of the field to an overwhelming win:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1490481339455328258
    The win was by 15 lengths, but no KYD points. It looks like the race was out fast, but Messier still finished strong. A horse to be watched.

    In the Las Virgines, Adare Manor was just as dominating:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1490440754195361792

    And at Aqueduct, at the Ruthless, Shotgun Hottie won a weird race:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1490438712475328514
    If you want to see a horse 'spit the bit', watch leader Lady Milagro. She looked like a winner and ran out of gas. Champagne Poetry took over and looked like she had it won, but Shotgun Hottie ran her down and nosed her out.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  9. #49

    Derby Future Pool #3

    Another Kentucky Derby Future Pool is out. I don't know if anyone takes this future bet seriously in our group, but it is nice to see the list of ACTIVE contenders, their workouts, all together on one set of PPs, and some morning line odds all in one place.
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [ URL above, Friday February 11, 2022, Ky Derby Future - Race 3, PPs ]

    Here is the Odds sheet:
    https://www.kentuckyderby.com/upload...eet_8.5x11.pdf

    Missing from the Future Pool are big horses like:
    • Jack Christopher, who had a screw put into his leg last November, but is back working out on the track, and
    • Messier, who has messy connections preventing him from accruing KYD points
    • Corniche, who has yet to start this year, but...(see Messier)


    All of whom are on the track and are capable of making moves toward the KYD should circumstances change.

    Some of the Future Wager horses are just not serious contenders yet, but 3 months is a long time in horse development at this point in the season. A lot can happen.

    Here is one person's opinion on the Top Ten KYD Contenders:
    https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-rac...s-the-question
    "Everybody's an expert!"

    The Sam Davis at Tampa Bay Downs will be this weekend, so the KYD Trail picture will morph yet again.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  10. #50
    Quote Originally Posted by DevilHorse View Post
    Another Kentucky Derby Future Pool is out. I don't know if anyone takes this future bet seriously in our group, but it is nice to see the list of ACTIVE contenders, their workouts, all together on one set of PPs, and some morning line odds all in one place.
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [ URL above, Friday February 11, 2022, Ky Derby Future - Race 3, PPs ]

    Here is the Odds sheet:
    https://www.kentuckyderby.com/upload...eet_8.5x11.pdf

    Missing from the Future Pool are big horses like:
    • Jack Christopher, who had a screw put into his leg last November, but is back working out on the track, and
    • Messier, who has messy connections preventing him from accruing KYD points
    • Corniche, who has yet to start this year, but...(see Messier)


    All of whom are on the track and are capable of making moves toward the KYD should circumstances change.

    Some of the Future Wager horses are just not serious contenders yet, but 3 months is a long time in horse development at this point in the season. A lot can happen.

    Here is one person's opinion on the Top Ten KYD Contenders:
    https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-rac...s-the-question
    "Everybody's an expert!"

    The Sam Davis at Tampa Bay Downs will be this weekend, so the KYD Trail picture will morph yet again.

    Larry
    DevilHorse
    Some interesting thoughts on how to bet the Derby Pool 3, and also how to read into what might happen in the KYD:
    https://www.horseracingnation.com/ne...ger_Pool_3_123
    The suggestion here is that Jack Christopher might be off the table. Although Corniche and Messier might be on the Derby Pool if not for their trainer, so I wouldn't discount their possible chance of winning.

    Pletcher has a lot of really good 3YOs this year, he might point some of them toward the Preakness and Belmont instead of the KYD. Interesting that some owners and trainers do not think that the KYD is the 'be all and end all." Especially if you have a horse that might be a little delayed in his training. Expect Mo Donegal to point toward the Wood Memorial rather than trying the Florida Derby; remember he won the Remsen.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  11. #51
    This weekend, two races of interest to the KYD Trail:

    On Saturday at Tampa Bay Downs is the Sam F Davis:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [ URL above, February 12, 2022, Tampa Bay Downs - Race 10, PPs ]
    Classic Causeway might have the edge here. Make It Big is undefeated for Saffie Joseph (at his home track). Howling Time will have to pick it up after being freshened up since November.

    Also on Saturday, at Golden Gate Fields, is the recently relevant, El Camino Real:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [ URL above, February 12, 2022, Golden Gate Fields - Race 8, PPs ]
    We all remember (weeeeelll, maybe some of us) that Rombauer made a yuge last to first move in this very race and declared that he would be relevant in the Triple Crown scene. The eventual Preakness winner didn't make into the fall, but he indeed was a factor in the spring classics.
    In this year's rendition, Mackinnon looks like the favorite with Boise looking like a possible factor in the triples.

    For the fillies, it is the Suncoast at Tampa Bay Downs:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [ URL above, February 12, 2022, Tampa Bay Downs - Race 8, PPs ]
    Nest is considered a Top Ten filly at the moment and should be right there at the end. But you never know.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  12. #52

    Final Results on Medina Spirit Autopsy

    The final results on Medina Spirit autopsy are in:
    https://www.thoroughbreddailynews.co...nsive-testing/
    the conclusion is.. he's dead. No further clarity is provided, and that isn't surprizing. Based on the description, sudden death in horses sometimes doesn't leave clues.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  13. #53
    Upthread I gave a shoutout to Zozos next time out in an optional claimer.
    He started again and won:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    He might have a future.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  14. #54
    Quote Originally Posted by DevilHorse View Post
    This weekend, two races of interest to the KYD Trail:

    On Saturday at Tampa Bay Downs is the Sam F Davis:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [ URL above, February 12, 2022, Tampa Bay Downs - Race 10, PPs ]
    Classic Causeway might have the edge here. Make It Big is undefeated for Saffie Joseph (at his home track). Howling Time will have to pick it up after being freshened up since November.

    Also on Saturday, at Golden Gate Fields, is the recently relevant, El Camino Real:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [ URL above, February 12, 2022, Golden Gate Fields - Race 8, PPs ]
    We all remember (weeeeelll, maybe some of us) that Rombauer made a yuge last to first move in this very race and declared that he would be relevant in the Triple Crown scene. The eventual Preakness winner didn't make into the fall, but he indeed was a factor in the spring classics.
    In this year's rendition, Mackinnon looks like the favorite with Boise looking like a possible factor in the triples.

    For the fillies, it is the Suncoast at Tampa Bay Downs:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [ URL above, February 12, 2022, Tampa Bay Downs - Race 8, PPs ]
    Nest is considered a Top Ten filly at the moment and should be right there at the end. But you never know.

    Larry
    DevilHorse
    There is a disturbance in the force!!!
    Flightline is sidelined for a short time because he is not quite right. They think it is a small thing "a little strain in his hock", which is the middle, backward facing joint in one of his back legs. He will miss his targeted next start in the San Carlos, where he no doubt would have blown away that field. X-rays are negative. They will check with other vets. Sadler says that it won't be long before he's back training.

    In the KYD related races..

    In the Sam F. Davis, Classic Causeway looked really good and ready to move up the ranks:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    Shipsational finished second in his second lifetime start and may yet be heard from with a rough trip.

    In the El Camino Real, favorite Mackinnon was run down by the Baffert curse when Blackadder came from behind on the inside to win:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    Apparently Baffert is 4 for 4 shipping into Golden Gate Fields. But then, Blackadder does not get any KYD points for this effort, but the Preakness is happy to have a Baffert horse.


    For the fillies, at the Suncoast Stakes, the prohibitive favorite Nest was pushbutton as she exploded at the head of the stretch after stalking the pace:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    A tap on the shoulder and she was gone.d

    <sorry, the copy function is not working for me on twitter today>

    An interesting first time starter for Constitution named We The People at Oaklawn Park.
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    He had been working well and people had taken note.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  15. #55
    Baffert finally had his hearing on last year's Kentucky Derby today.
    The closed door meeting was between the Kentucky Horse Racing Commission and a lawyer for Bob Baffert.
    https://www.thoroughbreddailynews.co...-khrc-hearing/
    https://www.horseracingnation.com/ne...k_decision_123

    I have a feeling that if Baffert wins, his lawyer will consider the process fair; if he loses, he will consider the process unfair and will appeal.
    Nothing will be swift, other than the horses in the near vicinity.

    There was a delay while the lawyer had to fly back and forth to China to defend some 15 year old Russian skater.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  16. #56

    Foal Patrol

    For those of you watching the Olympics, and you want a live screen saver, how about a Foal Patrol?

    If you never saw a foal being born, or you've stayed up with a pregnant mare hoping to see a foal born, it is a wonder to behold. 90% of foals are born at night. Mares also seem to have a little control over when they give birth.

    I was very interested in seeing this wonderous event and I asked the farm owner/manager where my mare was going to foal to give me a call if he thought she was going to foal. I got the call at 8pm one cold February night. When we got there, a mare had just foaled; the horse midwife was there to help. We went out and waited around on a freezing night. There are signs that a mare is going to foal; she acts restlessly; her teats 'bag up'. Sometimes that works as a predictor, sometimes not. Mares together in a barn tend to foal together on the same night. Would this be my mare's night? Well, about 1:30am, her bag of waters broke. 10 minutes later, our filly was on the ground. A half hour later, she was nursing. Great night!! That filly is a great grandmother now.

    Here is a URL to Spanish Bunny's stall:
    https://www.foalpatrol.com/horses/spanish-bunny
    She's usually there. Maybe you can see something wonderful.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  17. #57
    This weekend, the Fair Grounds takes center stake for the 3YO stakes action..

    The Risen Star for 3YOCs will take place:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [ URL above, Saturday February 19, 2022, Fair Grounds - Race 13, PPs ]
    Pappacap, Epicenter, Zandon, Smile Happy, and Slow Down Andy are all in play. There just isn't a lot of information on some of these steeds so we'll have to go with some of the trainer's statements, and our experience. Pappacap and Epicenter are coming out of the same race, but Pappacap probably needed it more. Pappacap will benefit from the change in riders (but not staying in the inside post); I look for him to lag back so he can pull off the rail, but he has very good works. Zandon, Smile Happy, and Slow Down Andy are lightly raced. Slow Down Andy beat Messier last time out; can he do that level of performance (or better) again? Does Smile Happy have the pedigree to go 1 1/8 and stay undefeated?
    Crap shoot.
    Here is an opinion on the race:
    https://www.horseracingnation.com/bl...Risen_Star_123

    For the fillies, its the Rachel Alexandra:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [ URL above, Saturday February 19, 2022, Fair Grounds - Race 12, PPs ]
    Hidden Connection, Miss Mattie B, and Dream Lith appear to be top contenders. Hidden Connection is the most highly regarded. Mike Smith came east to ride Miss Mattie B. Dream Lith won the Golden Rod, at CD, in November the last time out. You also have La Crete, who won the Silverbulletday and is undefeated. I'd lean toward Mike Smith and Miss Mattie B.

    Also, one of those heads-up horses, Vinco, is running at the Fair Grounds in the 6th:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [ URL above, Saturday February 19, 2022, Fair Grounds - Race 6, PPs ]
    The sons of Quality Roads are HOT! Vinco cost $1.5M and he closed a ton in his first start. He won't be the favorite, but I look to score here.

    Drain The Clock runs in the Gulfstream Park Sprint:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [ URL above, Saturday February 19, 2022, Gulfstream Park - Race 11, PPs ]
    He won last time out, but looked like he needed the race after a layoff. This is a tougher race.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  18. #58
    I found a few interesting items this morning:

    The top 100 3YOs in one person's opinion:
    https://www.horseracingnation.com/p/...022_Contenders
    I don't know when this list was made, but it is still early yet.

    The first of the 50 KYD Trail races is today in the Risen Star.
    Here is a breakdown:
    https://www.horseracingnation.com/ne...d_analysis_123

    An interesting betting angle for the Risen Star favors Smile Happy. It seems that his last race, which he won, is turning out to be a key race. We discussed key races before, which might really exist or might just be serendipitous. But the Kentucky Juvenile Cup was being looked at as just such a race. 4 or 5 of the horses that came out of that race won their next race, and they were all stakes races. The horse that won that race makes his next start today; that is Smile Happy. A lot of good things to say about Slow Down Andy as well; could he be the worst named horse since Seattle Slew?
    BTW, Risen Star was a Great racehorse. Would have been a Triple Crown winner if it wasn't for traffic trouble in the KYD. He was probably the best male on the track horse for Secretariat in the Triple Crown races. I suppose that could be a debate. He couldn't sire his way out of a paper bag though.
    His owners were great though; he had one owner that would sing in the winner's circle. Great fun.

    BTW, if you ever had any questions on how to read the Brisnet/Briswatch PPs that I post, here are instructions to decode:
    http://www.brisnet.com/library/uwc.pdf

    Always something to learn.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  19. #59
    Quote Originally Posted by DevilHorse View Post
    This weekend, the Fair Grounds takes center stake for the 3YO stakes action..

    The Risen Star for 3YOCs will take place:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [ URL above, Saturday February 19, 2022, Fair Grounds - Race 13, PPs ]
    Pappacap, Epicenter, Zandon, Smile Happy, and Slow Down Andy are all in play. There just isn't a lot of information on some of these steeds so we'll have to go with some of the trainer's statements, and our experience. Pappacap and Epicenter are coming out of the same race, but Pappacap probably needed it more. Pappacap will benefit from the change in riders (but not staying in the inside post); I look for him to lag back so he can pull off the rail, but he has very good works. Zandon, Smile Happy, and Slow Down Andy are lightly raced. Slow Down Andy beat Messier last time out; can he do that level of performance (or better) again? Does Smile Happy have the pedigree to go 1 1/8 and stay undefeated?
    Crap shoot.
    Here is an opinion on the race:
    https://www.horseracingnation.com/bl...Risen_Star_123

    For the fillies, its the Rachel Alexandra:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [ URL above, Saturday February 19, 2022, Fair Grounds - Race 12, PPs ]
    Hidden Connection, Miss Mattie B, and Dream Lith appear to be top contenders. Hidden Connection is the most highly regarded. Mike Smith came east to ride Miss Mattie B. Dream Lith won the Golden Rod, at CD, in November the last time out. You also have La Crete, who won the Silverbulletday and is undefeated. I'd lean toward Mike Smith and Miss Mattie B.

    Also, one of those heads-up horses, Vinco, is running at the Fair Grounds in the 6th:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [ URL above, Saturday February 19, 2022, Fair Grounds - Race 6, PPs ]
    The sons of Quality Roads are HOT! Vinco cost $1.5M and he closed a ton in his first start. He won't be the favorite, but I look to score here.

    Drain The Clock runs in the Gulfstream Park Sprint:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [ URL above, Saturday February 19, 2022, Gulfstream Park - Race 11, PPs ]
    He won last time out, but looked like he needed the race after a layoff. This is a tougher race.

    Larry
    DevilHorse
    Well, that was interesting..

    Epicenter went to the front, set moderate fractions, with mild challenge, and controlled the race.
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1495400434982592512
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    It looked like lone speed situation where the race was shortened to suit Epicenter's needs. I thought that Smile Happy was boxed until just before the quarter pole. Epicenter might have had more in the tank, but we'll never know. I can't make a case for anyone else.
    The son of Not This Time received a very nice 98 Beyer.
    The KYD loves horses on the front who can maintain their speed; COME AND GET ME!!

    Turnerloose surprised folks (not TDMMDI) and won the Rachel Alexandra:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    This was the filly's first time on dirt
    The daughter of Nyquist was awarded an 81 Beyer.
    The nice filly La Crete fractured her leg and was pulled up; it is not life threatening.
    https://www.horseracingnation.com/ne...aks_points_123

    Vinco was awful; finished last. He was in the running, pressed the pace, and spit the bit. He was already on Lasix, so something on the horse failed.

    Drain The Clock lost in a spirited stretch battle to Miles Ahead:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1495160610341851138
    Are they really shipping Drain The Clock to Dubai?

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  20. #60
    Join Date
    Sep 2010
    Location
    Franklin TN
    Quote Originally Posted by DevilHorse View Post
    Well, that was interesting..

    Epicenter went to the front, set moderate fractions, with mild challenge, and controlled the race.
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1495400434982592512
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    It looked like lone speed situation where the race was shortened to suit Epicenter's needs. I thought that Smile Happy was boxed until just before the quarter pole. Epicenter might have had more in the tank, but we'll never know. I can't make a case for anyone else.
    The son of Not This Time received a very nice 98 Beyer.
    The KYD loves horses on the front who can maintain their speed; COME AND GET ME!!

    Turnerloose surprised folks (not TDMMDI) and won the Rachel Alexandra:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    This was the filly's first time on dirt
    The daughter of Nyquist was awarded an 81 Beyer.
    The nice filly La Crete fractured her leg and was pulled up; it is not life threatening.
    https://www.horseracingnation.com/ne...aks_points_123

    Vinco was awful; finished last. He was in the running, pressed the pace, and spit the bit. He was already on Lasix, so something on the horse failed.

    Drain The Clock lost in a spirited stretch battle to Miles Ahead:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1495160610341851138
    Are they really shipping Drain The Clock to Dubai?

    Larry
    DevilHorse
    I thought the races at Fairgrounds were great. Lots of high quality and high priced horse flesh. I didn’t win any money. What else is new. I am trying to figure out trainer angles. So the TVg guy called it with the Pletcher horse Momentus saying Pletcher didn’t ship him from Florida just for ride. He was right. So then how to look at Brad Cox’s decision to run Turnerloose on the dirt, after only racing 4 times on the grass. Just guessing what she might do, or actually thinking she could win. I had seen this horse win at KyDowns on the grass. She was great that day. But, she was coming off two straight losses. I looked at her dirt works which are pretty ordinary. I love her name, a play on “Turn Her Loose.” And then I passed. She won and paid a gazillion. She costs $50k and has now won $350k. A very good investment. Her time was only fair, but she doesn’t care and neither do her owners and jockey. Or for that matter anyone who bet her. DevilHorse does her pedigree say dirt or turf?

    The big race was interesting. As it was run during halftime of Duke/FSU I watched it live. The interview with McPeek before the race sounded like he just wanted to run well. The point is to improve and be the best the first Saturday in May. So I guess McPeek was satisfied. Equibase claims the winner was geared down the last part of the race. I didn’t see it that way, but I was watching Smile Happy. I had him in the exacta, but with the California horse. The Cal horse ran pitifully. Which raises the question. Is Messier any good or just competing against mediocre horses.

    The maiden races were competitive with really expensive and well bred horses. TVG compared them to Saratoga type maiden races.

    It seemed every other race was won by a long shot. So all in all the best race day of the year, so far.

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