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  1. #501
    Join Date
    Sep 2010
    Location
    Franklin TN
    Quote Originally Posted by DevilHorse View Post
    Today is Breeder's Cup Friday. The powers that be have recognized that there are too many specialities/divisions in horse racing (up to 15 now) to put all of the races on one day. So they divided the races into a 2 day extravaganza. OK, so today is all of the 2YO races. I always appreciated that the 2YO race, setting the stage for next year's KYD, was just a few hours before the BC Classic. But whatever..

    The main races, for me, are the BC Juvenile (Race 9) and the BC Juvenile Fillies (Race 7).

    The Juvenile race is headed by Cave Rock who has been the most visually impressive, and statistically impressive, 2YO in training. So should I be picking the horse that has the best chance to win or a horse with the best Return On Investment (ROI). If the morning line was true, then Cave Rock at 4/5 is a better choice than Forte' at 4/1 odds. Do you think Forte would lose 4 of 5 races to Cave Rock? Previous winners in the last decade have included Texas Red and Corniche, both of whom were great on this day but never again. Texas Red was a big longshot. I've mentioned before that 2YOs change a lot over the course of their young lives. Although statistically Cave Rock looks unbeatable, Forte' and even National Treasure might have a shot if Cave Rock is softened up. Forte' has Irad and Pletcher in his corner; he has a legit shot. I think Cave Rock will win, but I would be Forte' because of expectation value.

    The Juvenile Filly race:
    This is a more interesting race. Wonder Wheel looks like a lukewarm favorite. Atomically is interesting; her times are good, and she switches to Pletcher and the very aggressive Luis Saez (huge steps up from previous connections). Chop Chop came from off the pace to just miss beating Wonder Wheel. And Tell Me Nolies has done what is needed. Often this race depends on which filly is feeling good today. I would look at Atomically and Chop Chop to be on top if Wonder Wheel is challenged on the lead.

    Larry
    DevilHorse
    What an interesting day. I handicapped all the Breeders Cup races on Thursday thanks to DevilHorseís links. I didnít plan to bet the early Keeneland races, but I had nothing else to do so I handicapped the early races Friday morning. That was a bad idea. I lost half of my Breeders Cup money in the first 5 races. Fortunately in the BC races I made it back plus a profit. In the sixth race I thought Dramatize a European at 13/1 looked promising. He had already beaten the American favorite Love Reigns at Ascot. He admittedly had not run great last time, but at 13/1 he deserved a chance. Another European horse Mischief Magic won and paid over 6/1. Dramatize ran second but I didnít make a place bet. How stupid. The best English jockey, William Buick, rode the winner. European runners finishing 1,2. Maybe a pattern was developing.

    In the 7 th Wonder Wheel looked really attractive at over 6/1. She had just won at 1 1/16 miles on the front end at Keeneland. Closers had not done much all day on the dirt. Wonder Wheel came out sluggish in last place. I thought she was dead. She stayed in last place for the first 3/4 of the race. Then she made a tremendous rally and won going away. I had her to win and she paid $15.00. Winning in two completely different ways might indicate greatness. The two favorites, one of whom I had in the exacta finished last and next to last. Once again a pattern was developing, winners at Keeneland were doing well. She will be the Eclipse award winner for 2 year olds. She has now won $1.5 mil on an auction purchase of $275k. Now the comeback for dollars was starting.

    In the 8th a 1 mile turf race I decided to place an exacta bet on the best European and the best American horse. It worked out well. Meditate the European ran first and Pleasant Passage ran second paying $25.55 on a $1.00 exacta bet. Now things were cooking.

    The 9th had the biggest favorite of the day Bob Baffertís Cave Rock. Now I had help from the FanDuel team. Cave Rock was 2/5, low odds I wonít bet. He was washed out looking and very nervous. Another issue is I am rarely convinced by California racing, small fields and you never know when a horse actually beats a quality horse. So I bet a win bet on Forte at 5/1. Forte was the best horse from the East. Forte won and paid $12.04. I also had the exacta which paid $13.65 on a $1. bet. Now I am ahead.

    The last race was 1 mile on the turf. By now I knew the Europeans were better on the grass than our 2 year olds. Interesting the two year old Europeans were all the second stringers. The best European horses are already turned out for the winter to rest up for next year. I liked Victoria Road best of the Europeans. The favorite was Silver Knott another European trained by Charlie Appelby who wins more than 50% of his American races. Once again my opinion was reinforced by TVG commentator, Gabby Gaudet. She identified Victoria Road as the best looking horse on the ground. So I bet a win bet and Victoria Road won in a photo at $13.14. I bet an exacta with what I thought was the best American horse, Andthewinneris. He finished mid pack but my win bet paid enough to make me a winner on the day.

    Now another day of races to go. Hopefully I had some special insight when I was handicapping yesterday. Iím hopeful TVG, now FanDuel, has some coverage tomorrow. I have never found NBCís coverage to provide much insight into how to handicap the races. NBC has a lot of fluff pieces but I donít care for the rest of the commentary. We will see if Keeneland form holds tomorrow. The same for European form in the turf races. By the way donít call Gamblers Annonymous. I get great joy out of placing small bets and seeing if I can win. Itís the handicapping challenge that I enjoy. Hopefully it works the old brain cells to ward off dementia.

    PS, weíre bowl eligible. What were those odds at the beginning of the season?

  2. #502
    Quote Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMeDoIt View Post
    What an interesting day. I handicapped all the Breeders Cup races on Thursday thanks to DevilHorse’s links. I didn’t plan to bet the early Keeneland races, but I had nothing else to do so I handicapped the early races Friday morning. That was a bad idea. I lost half of my Breeders Cup money in the first 5 races. Fortunately in the BC races I made it back plus a profit. In the sixth race I thought Dramatize a European at 13/1 looked promising. He had already beaten the American favorite Love Reigns at Ascot. He admittedly had not run great last time, but at 13/1 he deserved a chance. Another European horse Mischief Magic won and paid over 6/1. Dramatize ran second but I didn’t make a place bet. How stupid. The best English jockey, William Buick, rode the winner. European runners finishing 1,2. Maybe a pattern was developing.

    In the 7 th Wonder Wheel looked really attractive at over 6/1. She had just won at 1 1/16 miles on the front end at Keeneland. Closers had not done much all day on the dirt. Wonder Wheel came out sluggish in last place. I thought she was dead. She stayed in last place for the first 3/4 of the race. Then she made a tremendous rally and won going away. I had her to win and she paid $15.00. Winning in two completely different ways might indicate greatness. The two favorites, one of whom I had in the exacta finished last and next to last. Once again a pattern was developing, winners at Keeneland were doing well. She will be the Eclipse award winner for 2 year olds. She has now won $1.5 mil on an auction purchase of $275k. Now the comeback for dollars was starting.

    In the 8th a 1 mile turf race I decided to place an exacta bet on the best European and the best American horse. It worked out well. Meditate the European ran first and Pleasant Passage ran second paying $25.55 on a $1.00 exacta bet. Now things were cooking.

    The 9th had the biggest favorite of the day Bob Baffert’s Cave Rock. Now I had help from the FanDuel team. Cave Rock was 2/5, low odds I won’t bet. He was washed out looking and very nervous. Another issue is I am rarely convinced by California racing, small fields and you never know when a horse actually beats a quality horse. So I bet a win bet on Forte at 5/1. Forte was the best horse from the East. Forte won and paid $12.04. I also had the exacta which paid $13.65 on a $1. bet. Now I am ahead.

    The last race was 1 mile on the turf. By now I knew the Europeans were better on the grass than our 2 year olds. Interesting the two year old Europeans were all the second stringers. The best European horses are already turned out for the winter to rest up for next year. I liked Victoria Road best of the Europeans. The favorite was Silver Knott another European trained by Charlie Appelby who wins more than 50% of his American races. Once again my opinion was reinforced by TVG commentator, Gabby Gaudet. She identified Victoria Road as the best looking horse on the ground. So I bet a win bet and Victoria Road won in a photo at $13.14. I bet an exacta with what I thought was the best American horse, Andthewinneris. He finished mid pack but my win bet paid enough to make me a winner on the day.

    Now another day of races to go. Hopefully I had some special insight when I was handicapping yesterday. I’m hopeful TVG, now FanDuel, has some coverage tomorrow. I have never found NBC’s coverage to provide much insight into how to handicap the races. NBC has a lot of fluff pieces but I don’t care for the rest of the commentary. We will see if Keeneland form holds tomorrow. The same for European form in the turf races. By the way don’t call Gamblers Annonymous. I get great joy out of placing small bets and seeing if I can win. It’s the handicapping challenge that I enjoy. Hopefully it works the old brain cells to ward off dementia.

    PS, we’re bowl eligible. What were those odds at the beginning of the season?
    Glad to hear you had a great day.

    The one thing nice about these big fields is that you (usually) get better odds on the horses you like; but then, you also get increased possibility of traffic problems.
    Some good horses fell to that bugaboo yesterday.

    I had Forte', as per my previous comments. I didn't indulge in the turf races.

    It would have been nice if they had a 2YO Juvenile Daily Double for the fillies race and the colts.

    As for the TV insanity..
    The first 2 races will be on TVG/Fanduel. 11am-1pm.
    The next 4 races will be on the USA network. 1pm-3:30pm
    The final 3 races will be on NBC/Peacock. 3:30pm-6pm


    Larry
    DevilHorse
    Last edited by DevilHorse; 11-05-2022 at 07:21 AM.

  3. #503
    In the Classic today, I believe that Flightline will win. He is a generational horse. Life Is Good will probably take the lead, but I don't think he'll hit the board; he is a super miler but he races in longer races because the money is better. There are 3 other horses to consider IMHO, Olympiad, Epicenter, and Taiba. Olympiad was better than those 2 this summer, but it is not summer; 3YOs improve. I'll take Epicenter for the place followed by Taiba. Rich Strike could be good, but until I see him put in a top effort outside of Louisville/CD, I can't pick him here. Hot Rod Charlie is a very nice horse, but he never impresses as much as the top 4.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  4. #504
    Join Date
    Sep 2010
    Location
    Franklin TN
    Quote Originally Posted by DevilHorse View Post
    In the Classic today, I believe that Flightline will win. He is a generational horse. Life Is Good will probably take the lead, but I don't think he'll hit the board; he is a super miler but he races in longer races because the money is better. There are 3 other horses to consider IMHO, Olympiad, Epicenter, and Taiba. Olympiad was better than those 2 this summer, but it is not summer; 3YOs improve. I'll take Epicenter for the place followed by Taiba. Rich Strike could be good, but until I see him put in a top effort outside of Louisville/CD, I can't pick him here. Hot Rod Charlie is a very nice horse, but he never impresses as much as the top 4.

    Larry
    DevilHorse
    I will comment about 30 minutes before the race. Iím coming off three straight wins after another slow start. (Should have played the pick 3, but didnít.). Three year olds donít usually win this race but since Iím playing with house money and as there is a lot of speed in the race I will make a win/place bet on Epicenter. I havenít checked the payoffs on Flightline/Epicenter exacta, but will probably place a small exacta box.

  5. #505
    Join Date
    Sep 2010
    Location
    Franklin TN
    Quote Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMeDoIt View Post
    I will comment about 30 minutes before the race. Iím coming off three straight wins after another slow start. (Should have played the pick 3, but didnít.). Three year olds donít usually win this race but since Iím playing with house money and as there is a lot of speed in the race I will make a win/place bet on Epicenter. I havenít checked the payoffs on Flightline/Epicenter exacta, but will probably place a small exacta box.
    Flightline proved to be equal to the hype. An impressive victory against a good field. Life is Good set blazing fractions but couldnít shake Flightline. Prat while running second on Flightline kept looking over his shoulder to see if any of the others were catching up. They werenít and when he asked Flightline easily drew off. Any billionaires out there can buy a 2 1/2% interest in Flightline at the Keeneland sales on Monday. Flightline is another great son of Tapit. He sure doesnít look like Dad who as an older horse is almost white.

    There were some unexpected losers over the two days. Asmussen probably had the worst of it, no wins and an injured Epicenter. Wesley Ward had a rough time. What he calls his best horse ever, Golden Pal, missed the break and ran poorly. None of his other horses did anything. Baffertís only win over the two days was an impressive maiden winner in the first race today before the BC races started. It seems his drug problems may have affected his ability to attract and retain the best owners. He only had a few entries and no wins. His prohibitive favorite Cave Run ran second. Taiba ran third in the big race. Messier, once one of his most promising horses, was only in an allowance and race ran last today as the favorite. He did have a two year old run in the money in a 2 year old BC race. We know his horses are under tremendous scrutiny. Was he the Lance Armstrong of racing, getting away with performance enhancing drugs for years?

    Charlie Appleby, the English trainer, had multiple winners. He seems to have figured out exactly what type of English or Irish turf horse will run best in America. I had Rebels Romance, an Appleby trainee, in the $4mil turf race and he paid almost $14 to win. He had won four in a row in Europe. I was pleasantly surprised by almost 6/1. Simon Bray on TVG could only talk about Mishriff a great European horse with $15 mil in winnings, but not a single win this year. Mishriff ran out of the money.

    Pletcher had a great win with Malathat. I had a nice win bet on Maathat but played an all Pletcher exacta with Nest. Nest didnít run well and certainly disappointed.

    Bill Mott had a great day, two winners a second and third place.

    It was a great two days of racing! I was a slight winner over the two days, nothing to write home about, but a hell of a lot of fun.

  6. #506
    Quote Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMeDoIt View Post
    Flightline proved to be equal to the hype. An impressive victory against a good field. Life is Good set blazing fractions but couldn’t shake Flightline. Prat while running second on Flightline kept looking over his shoulder to see if any of the others were catching up. They weren’t and when he asked Flightline easily drew off. Any billionaires out there can buy a 2 1/2% interest in Flightline at the Keeneland sales on Monday. Flightline is another great son of Tapit. He sure doesn’t look like Dad who as an older horse is almost white.

    There were some unexpected losers over the two days. Asmussen probably had the worst of it, no wins and an injured Epicenter. Wesley Ward had a rough time. What he calls his best horse ever, Golden Pal, missed the break and ran poorly. None of his other horses did anything. Baffert’s only win over the two days was an impressive maiden winner in the first race today before the BC races started. It seems his drug problems may have affected his ability to attract and retain the best owners. He only had a few entries and no wins. His prohibitive favorite Cave Run ran second. Taiba ran third in the big race. Messier, once one of his most promising horses, was only in an allowance and race ran last today as the favorite. He did have a two year old run in the money in a 2 year old BC race. We know his horses are under tremendous scrutiny. Was he the Lance Armstrong of racing, getting away with performance enhancing drugs for years?

    Charlie Appleby, the English trainer, had multiple winners. He seems to have figured out exactly what type of English or Irish turf horse will run best in America. I had Rebels Romance, an Appleby trainee, in the $4mil turf race and he paid almost $14 to win. He had won four in a row in Europe. I was pleasantly surprised by almost 6/1. Simon Bray on TVG could only talk about Mishriff a great European horse with $15 mil in winnings, but not a single win this year. Mishriff ran out of the money.

    Pletcher had a great win with Malathat. I had a nice win bet on Maathat but played an all Pletcher exacta with Nest. Nest didn’t run well and certainly disappointed.

    Bill Mott had a great day, two winners a second and third place.

    It was a great two days of racing! I was a slight winner over the two days, nothing to write home about, but a hell of a lot of fun.
    Thanks for that excellent recap.

    Flightline was indeed dominant. It is not overstated that if a horse runs with a very fast horse, into very fast fractions (22 2/5, 45 2/5), they don't live to tell about it. Flightline never took the rail and was 4 wide on the final turn (because Life Is Good was baring out). He should have been fodder for the closers, but that was not in the script. There was also a persistant 20MPH wind; Flightline was not covered so he was affected. Now the big questions as to whether Flightline goes to the breeding shed or races 4 or 5 races next year; the insurance cost for Flightline to race is surely as much as he will make (if he doesn't go to the Middle East). When Seattle Slew (Flightline's 4th generation, tail male great great grandsire) came back as a 4YO his insurance cost was through the roof too (I saw $100k per race quoted); for Flightline, I saw 'millions' quoted for the insurance costs for a 5YO campaign. Seattle Slew, at the height of his value, was estimated to be worth $300M. Flightline will be his own industry for a few years. Flightline received a 121 Beyer for yesterday's performance. Unreal for most horses, but that ranks this race in Flightline's top 3. I'm not sure of Northern Dancer's maximum value; foal crops had limited size back then, and ND had a stud fee of $1M, but that was late in his career (older horses don't have that much future value).

    As a breeder, I would note that with A.P. Indy in the 4th generation of Flightline's foals, I expect to see some 3x4 in breeding to API in Flightline's early crops.

    Epicenter had a condylar fracture that is repairable (and will be).

    Other big winners yesterday include Curlin, who sired no less than 3 of the 9 winners on the day. Also, Godolphin blue was on display often.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  7. #507

    Brief Recap

    Quote Originally Posted by DevilHorse View Post
    Day 2 of the Breeder's Cup. Again, the PPs reflect preliminary sequence and eligible runners:

    Race 1 is another 2YO maiden race, with at least 1 interesting horse:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [ URL above, Saturday November 5, 2022; Keeneland - Race 1, PPs ]
    Arabian Knight is a $2.3M first timer.


    Race 3 is the BC F&M Sprint:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [ URL above, Saturday November 5, 2022; Keeneland - Race 3, PPs ]
    Last year's winner was Ce Ce, and she is entered here, but might not be the favorite; Goodnight Olive and Echo Zulu will be tough.

    Race 4 is the BC Turf Sprint:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [ URL above, Saturday November 5, 2022; Keeneland - Race 4, PPs ]
    Last year's winner, Golden Pal, will be challenged by Campanelle.

    Race 5 is the BC Dirt Mile:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [ URL above, Saturday November 5, 2022; Keeneland - Race 5, PPs ]
    Cyberknife, Gunite, and Cody's Wish are top contenders. Senor Buscador is coming into his own after a long layoff. Note: Gunite is racing after (only) 2 weeks; Cyberknife is double entered so he may not race here.

    Race 6 is the BC F&M Turf:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [ URL above, Saturday November 5, 2022; Keeneland - Race 6, PPs ]
    The Queen of Canadian turfdom, Moira, will take on In Italian and Rougir.

    Race 7 is the BC Sprint:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [ URL above, Saturday November 5, 2022; Keeneland - Race 7, PPs ]
    Now we're talking. Jackie's Warrior has looked like he's lost a little on his fastball, but will still be formidable; he lost a 7f race last out, but this is 6f. The mare Kimari may be his toughest competition since other sprint candidates will be going in longer races. Aloha West won last year and will be in the race.

    Race 8 is the original BC Mile run on the Turf:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [ URL above, Saturday November 5, 2022; Keeneland - Race 8, PPs ]
    Regal Glory may be wearing down, but should be there. European entrants abound and may grab the prize; Modern Games looks most formidable.


    Race 9 is the BC Distaff (no such thing as a 3YO only race):
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [ URL above, Saturday November 5, 2022; Keeneland - Race 9, PPs ]
    Nest, Malathaat, Clairere, and Secret Oath are the headliners. Note that 3YOs like Nest/SecretOath get a 3 lb weight allowance,.


    Race 10 is the BC Turf for $4M:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [ URL above, Saturday November 5, 2022; Keeneland - Race 10, PPs ]
    Nations Pride, War Like Goddess, Rebel's Romance, and a diminished Mishriff (has won $15M) are the contenders.

    Race 11 is the BC Classic for $6M:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [ URL above, Saturday November 5, 2022; Keeneland - Race 11, PPs ]
    Is it Flightline vs. Life Is Good. I don't think Life Is Good is at his best at 1 1/4 miles, but he is a great horse! Flightline, we don't know what his best distance is; so far it is ALL OF THEM. Life Is Good is tough on the lead, and we have seen Flightline rate from a stalker position; I'd expect that to be what the race evolves into. Flightline would be dumb to get into a speed battle, but he has to maintain an outside position so he isn't boxed in. Hot Rod Charlie (controversy about his last win with possible illegal horse shoes), Taiba (with Mike Smith), Olympiad (last race before stud service), and Rich Strike (Sonny Leon rides even after that mental mistake in the last race) all could get a piece in this 8 horse field.

    Let the handicapping and predictions begin.

    Larry
    DevilHorse
    Keeneland BC results:

    In Race 1 at Keeneland on BC Saturday, Arabian Knight showed that he may be worth the price:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    Winning by 7 in under 1:22 for 7f is a very nice start.

    In Race 3, Goodnight Olive won as the favorite:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1588923781501722624
    GO was awarded a 101 Beyer. Nice second by Echo Zulu.

    In Race 4, Caravel was the winner in the Turf Sprint:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1588934570941947904
    Caravel paid $87 and was awarded a 105 Beyer.

    In Race 5, Cody's Wish beat a game Cyberknife and was awarded a 106 Beyer:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1588946806314270720

    In Race 6, Tuesday won the F&M Turf race, and was awarded a 105 Beyer:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on

    In Race 7, Elite Power came from behind to win the sprint and was awarded a 100 Beyer:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1588965586276868096
    Jackie's Warrior went down to defeat, but was game to finish 3rd. CZ Rocket was 2nd.

    In Race 8, in the Turf Mile (a breeder's race) the favorite Modern Games came on late and won and was awarded a 104 Beyer:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1588975085096177664

    In Race 9, Malathaat beat a great field of mares and was awarded a 107 Beyer:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1588986657159553024
    This was a GREAT finish!!!

    In Race 10, Rebel's Romance won the BC Turf and was awarded a 107 Beyer:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1588999551964545025

    In Race 11, the BC Classic, Flightline wowed the crowd and was awarded a huge 121 Beyer:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1589013830339891201
    This race has been discussed, but was nonetheless awesome.

    BTW, Forte' was awarded a nice 100 Beyer for his effort on Friday; Wonder Wheel was awarded an 83.d

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  8. #508

    Back to the 2023 KYD and KYO

    There are a couple of interesting races at Aqueduct (no longer the Belmont meet At Aqueduct):

    The Tempted, for 2YO fillies, will be run:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [ url above, November 6, 2022 - Race 3, PPs ]
    Good Sam and Foggy Night are the 2 better front runners in a race that is (apparently) devoid of closers.

    The Nashua for 2YO colts will also take place:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...5/summary.html
    [ url above, November 6, 2022 - Race 3, PPs ]
    Full Moon Madness may be an obvious choice as the favorite, but I think Champions Dream is the better horse; CD's last race, in the sloppy Champagne is probably a throw out. Signator is a $1.7M Tapit who had a nice maiden win.


    If you aren't already on Long Island, you won't get to these races because the Verrazono Bridge is pre-occupied with the NYC Marathon. Nightmare traffic scenarios but great sports happenings.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  9. #509
    Join Date
    Sep 2010
    Location
    Franklin TN
    Quote Originally Posted by DevilHorse View Post
    Keeneland BC results:

    In Race 1 at Keeneland on BC Saturday, Arabian Knight showed that he may be worth the price:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    Winning by 7 in under 1:22 for 7f is a very nice start.

    In Race 3, Goodnight Olive won as the favorite:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1588923781501722624
    GO was awarded a 101 Beyer. Nice second by Echo Zulu.

    In Race 4, Caravel was the winner in the Turf Sprint:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1588934570941947904
    Caravel paid $87 and was awarded a 105 Beyer.

    In Race 5, Cody's Wish beat a game Cyberknife and was awarded a 106 Beyer:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1588946806314270720

    In Race 6, Tuesday won the F&M Turf race, and was awarded a 105 Beyer:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on

    In Race 7, Elite Power came from behind to win the sprint and was awarded a 100 Beyer:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1588965586276868096
    Jackie's Warrior went down to defeat, but was game to finish 3rd. CZ Rocket was 2nd.

    In Race 8, in the Turf Mile (a breeder's race) the favorite Modern Games came on late and won and was awarded a 104 Beyer:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1588975085096177664

    In Race 9, Malathaat beat a great field of mares and was awarded a 107 Beyer:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1588986657159553024
    This was a GREAT finish!!!

    In Race 10, Rebel's Romance won the BC Turf and was awarded a 107 Beyer:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1588999551964545025

    In Race 11, the BC Classic, Flightline wowed the crowd and was awarded a huge 121 Beyer:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1589013830339891201
    This race has been discussed, but was nonetheless awesome.

    BTW, Forte' was awarded a nice 100 Beyer for his effort on Friday; Wonder Wheel was awarded an 83.d

    Larry
    DevilHorse
    Thanks for the Beyer speed ratings. I was only surprised by Wonder Wheelís low speed. I thought her race was amazing because she ran completely different from her usual front running style to run last for much of the race and then shockingly, at least to me, rally to win. As we saw with Golden Pal yesterday when front runners donít get off to a good start they are usually doomed.

    I will always wonder if Flightline wasnít in yesterdayís Classic could Life Is Good have run a slower pace and won. I hope we get to see Life is Good again next year. He is the best miler in the country.

    Who is the male 3 year old Eclipse winner? My guess is Epicenter. Whatís yours? Thanks for the explanation of Epicenterís injury. Glad to hear it is not life threatening. Thatís the one part of thoroughbred racing that is horrible. WhenI see a horse even bobble during a race I cringe.

    It will be fun to follow the offspring of Essential Quality and Flightline over the next several years to see which if either of these sons of Tapit can carry on his success as a sire.

    I almost commented on Curlin yesterday. He is maybe an even better sire than Tapit. I guess that could be argued. A brief look at Equibase would seem to show he has more million dollar winners in each of the last few years. Heís also younger and has more years left, hopefully. If someone wants to give me a yearling I would be happy to have one from either sire.

  10. #510
    Join Date
    Sep 2010
    Location
    Franklin TN

    Handicapping

    As an aside, the Washington Post had an article with Breeders Cup picks. I donít remember the name of the guy, but his angle is to assign what I will call fair value to each horse and then pick who he thinks among those he will bet. Hopefully he just does this for the paper and doesnít risk his own money. He was 0-9. He did mention Goodnight Olive as a possibility.

    The more I do this the more I realize just what sorry handicappers most of these folks are. If you pick three or four horses each race then I would hope you would have a few winners, but you probably lose most of your money.

    Several of the ladies who study the horses and comment on their appearance at the track seem to offer the best advice and certainly the analysis that I am totally incapable of. I think it was Gabby Gaudet on the last race of the first day who said, ďIím totally throwing away my handicapping and picking Victoria Road to win.Ē This was based on how the horse warmed up and appeared on the track. I had picked Victoria Road and her confidence in a 5 1/2 to 1 choice led me to increase my bet. He paid $13.14.

    Ken Rudolph who is normally commenting on tracks I am not playing gave out a 10/1 shot the other day. Iím not sure how he normally does, but he typically picks one horse he likes best which takes guts.

    I saw that Andy Beyer had a show somewhere picking BC races. I didnít watch so I am not sure how he did.

    I didnít watch NBC except for the Classic so I am not sure how they did. I stayed with Fan Duel and also the Keeneland video which had analysis all day. Ultimately I just stuck with my picks. I shockingly did well with the European runners, where the form basically just tells you who won, not much about running style. I tried to pick horses based on class, being the quality of the races they had run, and their recent form. Were they winning recently or not. At least this year thatís where I won most of my bets. Last year I ignored the Japanese horses and got killed. This year the Japanese stayed home with only one horse entered.

    I bet a $2 pick six yesterday and had four winners, the best I have ever done on a pick six, but still a loser. Pick fives have become very popular. The television handicappers typically play $40 plus dollars. As I play with a small bankroll I single several races and donít bet more than $10 dollars on the Pick 5. I can only remember ever winning one which had a small payout. I love the opening double, I guess a throwback to when that was the only double each day. I also love exactas, particularly when you have large fields where they pay better. Thatís one of the reasons I love the Kentucky Downs meet with its large fields every race. I hear they are thinking about widening some of the turns so they can increase the size of the fields to maybe 16 next year. I also like exactas where you have a prohibitive favorite. If you can pick the second best horse you can make a little money on a small wager. Yesterday I only bet Flightline over Epicenter.

    From this point until late winter or early spring I typically check out from horse racing. Hopefully Duke under Coach Jon will do well enough to keep me occupied this winter. I love watching horse racing, but handicapping is work. I am old and lazy!

    Thanks DevilHorse for keeping this thread going. I truly enjoy your great insight and look for this post every day.

  11. #511

    Flightline Retired

    I just saw this blurb that Flightline is now retired.
    https://www.thoroughbreddailynews.co...-to-lanes-end/

    Not sure what prompted such a fast decision. But quotes will no doubt be coming.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  12. #512
    I want someone to look at me the way DevilHorse looks at racing.

  13. #513
    Quote Originally Posted by Skydog View Post
    I want someone to look at me the way DevilHorse looks at racing.
    Hopespringseternal!

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  14. #514
    Quote Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMeDoIt View Post
    As an aside, the Washington Post had an article with Breeders Cup picks. I donít remember the name of the guy, but his angle is to assign what I will call fair value to each horse and then pick who he thinks among those he will bet. Hopefully he just does this for the paper and doesnít risk his own money. He was 0-9. He did mention Goodnight Olive as a possibility.

    The more I do this the more I realize just what sorry handicappers most of these folks are. If you pick three or four horses each race then I would hope you would have a few winners, but you probably lose most of your money.

    Several of the ladies who study the horses and comment on their appearance at the track seem to offer the best advice and certainly the analysis that I am totally incapable of. I think it was Gabby Gaudet on the last race of the first day who said, ďIím totally throwing away my handicapping and picking Victoria Road to win.Ē This was based on how the horse warmed up and appeared on the track. I had picked Victoria Road and her confidence in a 5 1/2 to 1 choice led me to increase my bet. He paid $13.14.

    Ken Rudolph who is normally commenting on tracks I am not playing gave out a 10/1 shot the other day. Iím not sure how he normally does, but he typically picks one horse he likes best which takes guts.

    I saw that Andy Beyer had a show somewhere picking BC races. I didnít watch so I am not sure how he did.

    I didnít watch NBC except for the Classic so I am not sure how they did. I stayed with Fan Duel and also the Keeneland video which had analysis all day. Ultimately I just stuck with my picks. I shockingly did well with the European runners, where the form basically just tells you who won, not much about running style. I tried to pick horses based on class, being the quality of the races they had run, and their recent form. Were they winning recently or not. At least this year thatís where I won most of my bets. Last year I ignored the Japanese horses and got killed. This year the Japanese stayed home with only one horse entered.

    I bet a $2 pick six yesterday and had four winners, the best I have ever done on a pick six, but still a loser. Pick fives have become very popular. The television handicappers typically play $40 plus dollars. As I play with a small bankroll I single several races and donít bet more than $10 dollars on the Pick 5. I can only remember ever winning one which had a small payout. I love the opening double, I guess a throwback to when that was the only double each day. I also love exactas, particularly when you have large fields where they pay better. Thatís one of the reasons I love the Kentucky Downs meet with its large fields every race. I hear they are thinking about widening some of the turns so they can increase the size of the fields to maybe 16 next year. I also like exactas where you have a prohibitive favorite. If you can pick the second best horse you can make a little money on a small wager. Yesterday I only bet Flightline over Epicenter.

    From this point until late winter or early spring I typically check out from horse racing. Hopefully Duke under Coach Jon will do well enough to keep me occupied this winter. I love watching horse racing, but handicapping is work. I am old and lazy!

    Thanks DevilHorse for keeping this thread going. I truly enjoy your great insight and look for this post every day.
    Andy Beyer picked Flightline. The man is a savant!

    It sounds like you had a great BC betting. Congrats!

    Those horses injured during the running of the BC (Domestic Spending and Epicenter) are on the mend and will be OK. It was inferred that Epicenter is retired (the quote was that he will fully recover to fulfill his stud duties). Domestic Spending had a fractured pelvis. If it is non displaced then they will just keep him in the stall (not moving) as much as possible.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  15. #515
    Quote Originally Posted by DevilHorse View Post
    There are a couple of interesting races at Aqueduct (no longer the Belmont meet At Aqueduct):

    The Tempted, for 2YO fillies, will be run:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [ url above, November 6, 2022 - Race 3, PPs ]
    Good Sam and Foggy Night are the 2 better front runners in a race that is (apparently) devoid of closers.

    The Nashua for 2YO colts will also take place:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...5/summary.html
    [ url above, November 6, 2022 - Race 3, PPs ]
    Full Moon Madness may be an obvious choice as the favorite, but I think Champions Dream is the better horse; CD's last race, in the sloppy Champagne is probably a throw out. Signator is a $1.7M Tapit who had a nice maiden win.


    If you aren't already on Long Island, you won't get to these races because the Verrazono Bridge is pre-occupied with the NYC Marathon. Nightmare traffic scenarios but great sports happenings.

    Larry
    DevilHorse
    Good Sam won the Tempted at Aqueduct as the odds on favorite:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    This is the first progeny of the young sire Good Samaritan that I've seen. Good Sam is from his first crop of around 70 foals. Good Samaritan is by Harlan's Holiday; the sire of Into Mischief.

    In the Nashua, Champions Dream ran down the favorite Full Moon Madness in the stretch:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1589360132495839232

    It will be interesting to see the Beyer Figures from these 2 races. Either the track was slow or the horses were. The weather conditions were exceptionally good for November.

    Newgrange re-emerged at Santa Anita yesterday and easily beat a decent field in an allowance race:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    If you recall, Newgrange was a Baffert horse that had his 15 minutes of fame during the Road to the KYD, but failed in some races and disappeared. He was sold to a different group and is under a new trainer.

    Malathaat is apparently retired.

    Interesting Irad Ortiz quote. He was sitting on Life Is Good in the Classic (with Flightline looming), "I felt him every step of the way, just tried to get away from him and couldn’t. I know I’m going fast and said let me look again down the backside and he’s there. I said ‘Oh my God.’ Then he just goes by me like nothing. He’s an unbelievable horse.”

    Of course, when you have all of the top people in racing gathered for the BC, the smart thing to do is have a high priced horse sale. Fasig-Tipton had a night of stars. They sold Gamine (in foal) for $7M and Shedaresthedevil for $5M (amongst others). A total of 31 horses were sold for a million dollars or more each. Every year these sales for top broodmare prospects/race horses. But few of the KYD starters are from these mares.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  16. #516

    Spectacular Bid

    Interesting argument loosely comparing Flightline's accomplishments to that of Spectacular Bid:
    https://twitter.com/fynmere/status/1589406327188881408

    I saw Spectacular Bid, while I was in my first year at Duke, at the Laurel Futurity. He was not the favorite only one time after that race.
    Too bad he couldn't sire his way out of a paper bag.

    A 2.5% share of Flightlilne was sold for $4.6M, thus establishing his value today at $184M.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  17. #517
    Join Date
    Sep 2010
    Location
    Franklin TN
    Quote Originally Posted by DevilHorse View Post
    Interesting argument loosely comparing Flightline's accomplishments to that of Spectacular Bid:
    https://twitter.com/fynmere/status/1589406327188881408

    I saw Spectacular Bid, while I was in my first year at Duke, at the Laurel Futurity. He was not the favorite only one time after that race.
    Too bad he couldn't sire his way out of a paper bag.

    A 2.5% share of Flightlilne was sold for $4.6M, thus establishing his value today at $184M.

    Larry
    DevilHorse
    When will we find out his initial stud fee?

  18. #518
    Quote Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMeDoIt View Post
    When will we find out his initial stud fee?
    Flightline will stand stud at Lanes End farm in Kentucky. They have already announced their stud fee schedule for 2023; that was before the BC and Flightline's retirement. The top stallion at Lanes End for next year's breeding season is Quality Road at $200k. Other studs at that farm are listed at the end of this article:
    https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-rac...reeding-season

    I imagine that most of the breedings available (probably about 150) will be swallowed up by the ownership group. But Lanes End will get some breedings too. I imagine that the syndicate and farm have an agreement on breedings available on the open market. But which mares allowed to breed to Flightline will be a balance between the quality of the applicants vs. who gets there first. If enough owners apply, there will be a selection process by the farm/syndicate to anoint Flightline's paramour list. I'm sure they will want to close his book within a couple of weeks. Breeding season starts at the middle to end of February (thus allowing the foals to be born in the next calendar year). Horses have a gestation of 330- to 345-day range (11 to 11.5 months). Being born on December 31 will make you a yearling on the next day, so they stear clear of that date; also, foals born during the winter tend to not be as hardy.

    So, when will they announce a stud fee for Flightline? Has to be before the new year obviously, but the good mares are not waiting for this announcement since contracts are being signed now to the other studs (whose books will fill soon, if not already). So I'll guess within a couple of weeks, soon after stud fee announcement. My guess is that there is more interest than seasons available, at any price.

    What will that stud fee be? If they have more inquiries from legitimate breeders, that will make the fee higher. Over the years before a horse's progeny actually race as 2YOs, there is a tendency to see a stud fee reduce. If the foals look like this monster, I doubt that will happen. Into Mischief will stand for $250k next year; the stud fee may approach that, but I'd be surprised if it exceeded it. Flightline is still an unknown quantity and was not in the conversation as a 2YO or the Triple Crown; not unlike the great Cigar who was a flop at stud.

    P.S. I just noticed that the horse that was voted 2nd in the world, behind Flightline, will stand his first season at stud for (only) 80k pounds. His name is Baaeed. That's $92,750 at today's exchange rate.

    Larry
    DevilHorse
    Last edited by DevilHorse; 11-08-2022 at 11:57 AM.

  19. #519
    Join Date
    Sep 2010
    Location
    Franklin TN
    Quote Originally Posted by DevilHorse View Post
    Flightline will stand stud at Lanes End farm in Kentucky. They have already announced their stud fee schedule for 2023; that was before the BC and Flightline's retirement. The top stallion at Lanes End for next year's breeding season is Quality Road at $200k. Other studs at that farm are listed at the end of this article:
    https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-rac...reeding-season

    I imagine that most of the breedings available (probably about 150) will be swallowed up by the ownership group. But Lanes End will get some breedings too. I imagine that the syndicate and farm have an agreement on breedings available on the open market. But which mares allowed to breed to Flightline will be a balance between the quality of the applicants vs. who gets there first. If enough owners apply, there will be a selection process by the farm/syndicate to anoint Flightline's paramour list. I'm sure they will want to close his book within a couple of weeks. Breeding season starts at the middle to end of February (thus allowing the foals to be born in the next calendar year). Horses have a gestation of 330- to 345-day range (11 to 11.5 months). Being born on December 31 will make you a yearling on the next day, so they stear clear of that date; also, foals born during the winter tend to not be as hardy.

    So, when will they announce a stud fee for Flightline? Has to be before the new year obviously, but the good mares are not waiting for this announcement since contracts are being signed now to the other studs (whose books will fill soon, if not already). So I'll guess within a couple of weeks, soon after stud fee announcement. My guess is that there is more interest than seasons available, at any price.

    What will that stud fee be? If they have more inquiries from legitimate breeders, that will make the fee higher. Over the years before a horse's progeny actually race as 2YOs, there is a tendency to see a stud fee reduce. If the foals look like this monster, I doubt that will happen. Into Mischief will stand for $250k next year; the stud fee may approach that, but I'd be surprised if it exceeded it. Flightline is still an unknown quantity and was not in the conversation as a 2YO or the Triple Crown; not unlike the great Cigar who was a flop at stud.

    P.S. I just noticed that the horse that was voted 2nd in the world, behind Flightline, will stand his first season at stud for (only) 80k pounds. His name is Baaeed. That's $92,750 at today's exchange rate.

    Larry
    DevilHorse
    This raises a question. Do American owners send broodmares to Europe? I checked bloodlines and see great North American horses in Baaeedís ancestry, Northern Dancer and Native Dancer. Admittedly these ancestors are way back, but still famous American race horses and sires. Baaeed lost his last race, his only loss out of 11 starts and earnings of over $3mil. Thatís pretty strong. The next few years will be fascinating to see whether Flightline can become anywhere close to as good a stud horse as his daddy, Tapit. You have commented on this before, but what are the odds that any of Flightlineís offspring are grey? If they are, as a purchaser does that affect the auction value of the offspring?

    Thanks for mentioning Cigar. I honestly thought all these years that he was a gelding because of how long he raced.

  20. #520
    Quote Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMeDoIt View Post
    This raises a question. Do American owners send broodmares to Europe? I checked bloodlines and see great North American horses in Baaeed’s ancestry, Northern Dancer and Native Dancer. Admittedly these ancestors are way back, but still famous American race horses and sires. Baaeed lost his last race, his only loss out of 11 starts and earnings of over $3mil. That’s pretty strong. The next few years will be fascinating to see whether Flightline can become anywhere close to as good a stud horse as his daddy, Tapit. You have commented on this before, but what are the odds that any of Flightline’s offspring are grey? If they are, as a purchaser does that affect the auction value of the offspring?



    Thanks for mentioning Cigar. I honestly thought all these years that he was a gelding because of how long he raced.
    I think Cigar had a very low sperm count (can I say that on DBR ). These days horses that are worthy of being studs get test bred early in their careers; but of course different horses mature later. And there is no rule that says you can't breed and race; but it makes concentrating on your work a bit more difficult.
    https://www.baltimoresun.com/news/bs...101-story.html

    Standardbreds allow sperm transport (and obviously artificial insemination and in some cases embryo transfer) to .. anywhere (i.e., Europe and Australia); although they actually send the studs to the southern hemisphere to stand a season at stud down there. Remember, their breeding season is 6 months staggered from ours so there is no conflict. TBreds do not allow sperm transport, artificial insemination, or embryo transfer! Although it is possible to send your mare to europe to get inseminated, but I don't think this is at all reasonable. Other than first time mares, you'd have to expect that there will be a young foal that has to make at least 1 trip across the Atlantic; not healthy for a foal that can be stomped or separated from their mom.
    What we have seen is the purchase of horses in europe and have them shipped here. Chad Brown certainly gets a lot of these. I read that a lot of the purses in the US are better for lots of turf classes, so well bred, near stakes, european breds are likely to ship to the US.
    BTW, Baaeed's sire Sea the Stars also sired the great Stradivarious who retired last year (also in europe).

    I would point out that there are a number of high quality farms/stables/operations that have european and US operations. Godolphin and Coolmore (associated with Aiden O'brien) for example. The horses can stay in europe until the next 'bus' to the US has some spots open.
    https://coolmore.com/farms/ballydoyl...s/aidan-obrien
    Choosing to send mares from the US to Europe (and back) could be done in bulk.
    Here is what it looks like:
    horseFly1.jpg
    They are huge operations with many studs and even more mares.

    Also, there is ample genetic diversity in high priced turf studs in the US. With all of the european runners showing up here, and staying for stud, there is ample opportunity to find a matching stud.

    I do recall an incident, about 40 years ago, when there was a rash (pun intended) of Equine Veneral Disease (can I say that on DBR ) in europe. They set a time when transport of horses in Europe would stop until they could get their arms around the problem. Just before midnight on that date, about 8 (memory fades and I can't find it on the interweb) of the top turf sires in France came to the US and stayed. The stud careers were moderately successful.

    P.S. Baaeed was a homebred of Shadwell Farms/Stables. The guy who started Shadwell is the older brother of the guy (shiek actually) who started and owns Godolphin.

    Larry
    DevilHorse
    Last edited by DevilHorse; 11-09-2022 at 07:14 PM.

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