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  1. #481

    Nice 2YO Filly

    A nice 2YO filly named Julia Shining won race 6 at Keeneland yesterday:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1581734857037619200
    Her jockey is sporting the Yellow silks. She started last and had an impressive 4 wide sweep on the turn. She is a homebred by Curlin out of a stakes winning AP Indy mare. And she is also a full sister to Malathaat!

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  2. #482
    Join Date
    Sep 2010
    Location
    Franklin TN
    Quote Originally Posted by DevilHorse View Post
    A nice 2YO filly named Julia Shining won race 6 at Keeneland yesterday:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1581734857037619200
    Her jockey is sporting the Yellow silks. She started last and had an impressive 4 wide sweep on the turn. She is a homebred by Curlin out of a stakes winning AP Indy mare. And she is also a full sister to Malathaat!

    Larry
    DevilHorse
    Not sure how many times a first time racing 2 year old makes a move like that after trailing so far back she wasnít even in the picture and wins. I guarantee the bettors who made her the favorite were not expecting to cash a ticket down the back side. Now a question for you DevilHorse, have there ever been full siblings among horses who were Grade 1 winners? I know Iím getting ahead of myself for a horse who just broke her maiden.

  3. #483
    Quote Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMeDoIt View Post
    Not sure how many times a first time racing 2 year old makes a move like that after trailing so far back she wasn’t even in the picture and wins. I guarantee the bettors who made her the favorite were not expecting to cash a ticket down the back side. Now a question for you DevilHorse, have there ever been full siblings among horses who were Grade 1 winners? I know I’m getting ahead of myself for a horse who just broke her maiden.
    Interesting question.

    For obvious reasons, you look toward the great broodmares.

    The first name that came to mind was for the progeny of the great broodmare Leslie's Lady, who is the dam of Into Mischief, Mendelsson, and Beholder (all Grade I winners), but they are out of different sires. Note that Mendelsson's sire was Scat Daddy and Beholder's sire was Henny Hughes (grandson of Scat Daddy); oh so close.

    A second one that I looked at was Weekend Surprise whose progeny included A.P. Indy and Summer Squall, but out of different sires. I looked at a full sibling to A.P. Indy named Weekend In Seattle (great name) who was Grade I placed in the Coaching Club American Oaks (G I). So that's close, but no Cigar (pun intended).

    The 3rd, and last broodmare that I looked at was Personal Ensign. She is the dam of Miner's Mark (won the G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup and the Jim Dandy (G2 at that time)) and half sibling My Flag (won the Ashland and the Gazelle - both G I's). PE is also the dam of full sibling to MM .. Our Emblem (stakes placed in numerous G I's). My Flag was also the dam of Storm Flag Flying who won the Frizette, the Matron, and the race named after her granddam.. the Personal Ensign.. all G I's. So almost! BTW, My Flag was one of the top 2 progeny of Easy Goer; the other being Will's Way. But I digress...

    But, I did notice that Personal Ensign has a full brother named Personal Flag who did win Grade Is (the Suburban Handicap and the Widener). They are both out of Private Account and the great broodmare Grecian Banner. So we have a winner!!!

    I found this article from 2014 that addresses this subject somewhat:
    https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-rac...-full-siblings

    In my research, I did find one likely pair, but it doesn't exactly fit your question (on a technicality). The full siblings Dr. Fager (1964) and Ta Wee (1966) won numerous races against the best of their generations. BUT, the graded stakes system was first instituted in 1973 and they raced in the 1960s and 1970, so there were no graded stakes before then. However, from a competition standpoint, DF and TW won races that became Grade I's. Dr. Fager everyone knows, but Ta Wee won races like the Vosburgh against the boys. Ta Wee won handicap races at 4 under more than 140 lbs. At 3 and 4 she won the Fall Highweight Handicap (Grade I eventually, against the boys). She also sired Great Above (the sire of Holy Bull).

    Larry
    DevilHorse
    Last edited by DevilHorse; 10-18-2022 at 09:02 AM.

  4. #484
    Quote Originally Posted by DevilHorse View Post
    Interesting question.

    For obvious reasons, you look toward the great broodmares.

    The first name that came to mind was for the progeny of the great broodmare Leslie's Lady, who is the dam of Into Mischief, Mendelsson, and Beholder (all Grade I winners), but they are out of different sires. Note that Mendelsson's sire was Scat Daddy and Beholder's sire was Henny Hughes (grandson of Scat Daddy); oh so close.

    A second one that I looked at was Weekend Surprise whose progeny included A.P. Indy and Summer Squall, but out of different sires. I looked at a full sibling to A.P. Indy named Weekend In Seattle (great name) who was Grade I placed in the Coaching Club American Oaks (G I). So that's close, but no Cigar (pun intended).

    The 3rd, and last broodmare that I looked at was Personal Ensign. She is the dam of Miner's Mark (won the G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup and the Jim Dandy (G2 at that time)) and half sibling My Flag (won the Ashland and the Gazelle - both G I's). PE is also the dam of full sibling to MM .. Our Emblem (stakes placed in numerous G I's). My Flag was also the dam of Storm Flag Flying who won the Frizette, the Matron, and the race named after her granddam.. the Personal Ensign.. all G I's. So almost! BTW, My Flag was one of the top 2 progeny of Easy Goer; the other being Will's Way. But I digress...

    But, I did notice that Personal Ensign has a full brother named Personal Flag who did win Grade Is (the Suburban Handicap and the Widener). They are both out of Private Account and the great broodmare Grecian Banner. So we have a winner!!!

    I found this article from 2014 that addresses this subject somewhat:
    https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-rac...-full-siblings

    In my research, I did find one likely pair, but it doesn't exactly fit your question (on a technicality). The full siblings Dr. Fager (1964) and Ta Wee (1966) won numerous races against the best of their generations. BUT, the graded stakes system was first instituted in 1973 and they raced in the 1960s and 1970, so there were no graded stakes before then. However, from a competition standpoint, DF and TW won races that became Grade I's. Dr. Fager everyone knows, but Ta Wee won races like the Vosburgh against the boys. Ta Wee won handicap races at 4 under more than 140 lbs. At 3 and 4 she won the Fall Highweight Handicap (Grade I eventually, against the boys). She also sired Great Above (the sire of Holy Bull).

    Larry
    DevilHorse
    Did I need to mention the obvious that Personal Ensign was also a G I stakes winner 8 times!

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  5. #485
    Join Date
    Sep 2010
    Location
    Franklin TN
    Quote Originally Posted by DevilHorse View Post
    Did I need to mention the obvious that Personal Ensign was also a G I stakes winner 8 times!

    Larry
    DevilHorse
    Your knowledge of bloodlines and ability to find this information is most impressive. I hope the two year old we saw stays healthy and gets to add to his very select company of horses. Despite the rarity of the situation it reminds us mortals of why the really rich horse owners are willing to place these million dollar bets at the auctions.

  6. #486
    Quote Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMeDoIt View Post
    Your knowledge of bloodlines and ability to find this information is most impressive. I hope the two year old we saw stays healthy and gets to add to his very select company of horses. Despite the rarity of the situation it reminds us mortals of why the really rich horse owners are willing to place these million dollar bets at the auctions.
    Thank you.
    Having a list of useful websites at my fingertips helps the cause.

    I think the number of Grade I winning siblings is incredibly low because there is A LOT of breeding to different sires each year for the top mares (i.e., not that many full siblings out there). Breeders know about Nicks (crosses that work well) and economics. When you breed your mare for the first time, you're taking a shot at a sire that matches your mare and your pocketbook (in most cases). You also get only moderate feedback before your next couple of breedings.
    1st foal - how does it look or act; very little chance to change a breeding decision, with an 11 month gestation period there isn't much time to change your mind if you want to breed on the foal heat (1st heat after birth, more likely to get pregnant but less likely to keep the foal full term), or breed 2nd heat and move the birthdate of the next foal later on the calendar. Eventually 2nd heat or later when the birthdays of foals get later, you'll miss a year because you won't breed past June)
    2nd foal - see how it looks, how does the first foal look? the 1st foal is a yearling in the first half of the year.
    3rd foal - see how it looks; 2nd foal is early yearling; 1st foal.. how did it sell, any reports from trainer.
    Most breeders will contract for a sire before foaling, especially if it is a top stallion and the book might close. So commit early, or you're stuck with a secondary sire.
    By the 2nd foal there is often less enthusiasm for expensive sires. Unless you hit with a real beauty or the first foal hits on the track, it will be the 5th foal when you have a choice. Unless you have a top race mare, or a relation to a top horse, many breeders will not spend a ton of money on a better stallion to breed to a mare unless the 1st foal has great reports or not. So varying circumstances means different thinking on whom to breed to your mare.

    As a case in point, look at Authentic's mare Flawless (picked arbitrarily). She was bred to Speightstown and then Bodemeister before Into Mischief (Authentic being her 3rd foal). But it took 3 years until she was bred back to Into Mischief (6th foal).

    In the case of Grecian Banner, she was bred to 2 other stallions (3 foals) before being bred to Private Account with Personal Ensign being the first (and beautiful) foal. Grecian Banner was bred to Private Account the rest of her breeding career. But consider that Grecian Banner was owned by mega rich, and experienced breeder, Ogden Phipps. He could afford essentially any sire.

    Just last week the big farms started coming out with their Stud Fee schedules for the 2023 breeding season. Competition for the slots to breed to top horses starts now. Of course, your mileage may vary if you're a big breeder and own a share of a stallion (guaranteed slot to breed a mare or two).

    Pardon the digression.

    Larry
    DevilHorse
    Last edited by DevilHorse; 10-18-2022 at 07:50 PM.

  7. #487
    Join Date
    Sep 2010
    Location
    Franklin TN
    Quote Originally Posted by DevilHorse View Post
    Thank you.
    Having a list of useful websites at my fingertips helps the cause.

    I think the number of Grade I winning siblings is incredibly low because there is A LOT of breeding to different sires each year for the top mares (i.e., not that many full siblings out there). Breeders know about Nicks (crosses that work well) and economics. When you breed your mare for the first time, you're taking a shot at a sire that matches your mare and your pocketbook (in most cases). You also get only moderate feedback before your next couple of breedings.
    1st foal - how does it look or act; very little chance to change a breeding decision, with an 11 month gestation period there isn't much time to change your mind if you want to breed on the foal heat (1st heat after birth, more likely to get pregnant but less likely to keep the foal full term), or breed 2nd heat and move the birthdate of the next foal later on the calendar. Eventually 2nd heat or later when the birthdays of foals get later, you'll miss a year because you won't breed past June)
    2nd foal - see how it looks, how does the first foal look? the 1st foal is a yearling in the first half of the year.
    3rd foal - see how it looks; 2nd foal is early yearling; 1st foal.. how did it sell, any reports from trainer.
    Most breeders will contract for a sire before foaling, especially if it is a top stallion and the book might close. So commit early, or you're stuck with a secondary sire.
    By the 2nd foal there is often less enthusiasm for expensive sires. Unless you hit with a real beauty or the first foal hits on the track, it will be the 5th foal when you have a choice. Unless you have a top race mare, or a relation to a top horse, many breeders will not spend a ton of money on a better stallion to breed to a mare unless the 1st foal has great reports or not. So varying circumstances means different thinking on whom to breed to your mare.

    As a case in point, look at Authentic's mare Flawless (picked arbitrarily). She was bred to Speightstown and then Bodemeister before Into Mischief (Authentic being her 3rd foal). But it took 3 years until she was bred back to Into Mischief (6th foal).

    In the case of Grecian Banner, she was bred to 2 other stallions (3 foals) before being bred to Private Account with Personal Ensign being the first (and beautiful) foal. Grecian Banner was bred to Private Account the rest of her breeding career. But consider that Grecian Banner was owned by mega rich, and experienced breeder, Ogden Phipps. He could afford essentially any sire.

    Just last week the big farms started coming out with their Stud Fee schedules for the 2023 breeding season. Competition for the slots to breed to top horses starts now. Of course, your mileage may vary if you're a big breeder and own a share of a stallion (guaranteed slot to breed a mare or two).

    Pardon the digression.

    Larry
    DevilHorse
    A $1.6 million 2 year old colt, Weyhill Road ran at Keeneland today. He didnít win, but his bloodline was something else. A Quality Road colt out of a Malibu Moon mare, Catch the Moon. What a broodmare! All four of her prior foals were graded stakes winners. And what a list, Midnight Bourbon, Girvin, Cocked and Loaded, and Pirateís Punch. I didnít realize Midnight Bourbon never won more than a Grade 3. He won over $3 million but had the misfortune to be born in a year loaded with really good colts. Then he died young. I never heard of Girvin until this year, but he has been a good first year sire despite standing in Florida where he didnít get the best mares. I think he is now in Kentucky. They showed a current photo of Catch the Moon and she looked pregnant to my untrained eye. As to Weyhill Road, he is trained by Shug McGaughy, who doesnít wind up his first timers like some other trainers. The TVG crowd thought Weyhill looked like a million dollars. He ran well enough to probably be a factor next time but did not finish in the money. The thought was this race may have been losded.Cox had a first timer who won. He only cost about $300k.

  8. #488
    Join Date
    Sep 2010
    Location
    Franklin TN
    Quote Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMeDoIt View Post
    A $1.6 million 2 year old colt, Weyhill Road ran at Keeneland today. He didnít win, but his bloodline was something else. A Quality Road colt out of a Malibu Moon mare, Catch the Moon. What a broodmare! All four of her prior foals were graded stakes winners. And what a list, Midnight Bourbon, Girvin, Cocked and Loaded, and Pirateís Punch. I didnít realize Midnight Bourbon never won more than a Grade 3. He won over $3 million but had the misfortune to be born in a year loaded with really good colts. Then he died young. I never heard of Girvin until this year, but he has been a good first year sire despite standing in Florida where he didnít get the best mares. I think he is now in Kentucky. They showed a current photo of Catch the Moon and she looked pregnant "to my untrained eye. As to Weyhill Road, he is trained by Shug McGaughy, who doesnít wind up his first timers like some other trainers. The TVG crowd thought Weyhill looked like a million dollars. He ran well enough to probably be a factor next time but did not finish in the money. The thought was this race may have been losded.Cox had a first timer who won. He only cost about $300k.
    This 6 1/2 furlong maiden race was run in two divisions. The second won by Victory Formation with Weyhill Road fourth was run over a second faster.

  9. #489
    Join Date
    Sep 2010
    Location
    Franklin TN

    Kentucky horse racing

    As a born and bred Kentuckian I will admit to bias regarding horse racing. Quite frankly Ky is only well known for three things, bourbon, horses and UK basketball. Despite having an advanced degree from UK, I am not a UK basketball fan unless they are playing Tennessee, my new home state.

    Horse racing has been a declining industry for decades. DevilHorse has provided stats for the decline in the number of yearly foals. But horse racing in Kentucky has reached new heights thanks to what are called historical horse racing machines, known anywhere else as slots machines. Only race tracks can offer HHR machines and a certain percentage of the handle must be returned to the purse structure. The most visible example of that has been Ky Downs which paid out over $17 million during seven days of racing. That boutique meet brought in the best riders, trainers and horses this year. (Please note Ky Downs only races on grass, so the best dirt horses arenít going to show up.)

    Now Churchill Downs has announced it has purchased Ellis Park, a small track on the north side of the Ohio River just south of Evansville Indiana. Yes, north side is correct, the river moved in the last two hundred plus years and left a small part of Kentucky north of the Ohio river in that one spot. Everywhere else in Kentucky when you cross the Ohio River youíre in either Illinois, Indiana or Ohio.

    The significance of the purchase is Churchill will install more slots, including in Owensboro, Ky, and will over time significantly increase the purse structure of Ellisí purses. Already trainers such as Cox, Asmussen, Maker and others were racing at Ellis which runs during July and August. Now you will have Keeneland with huge purses running in April, Churchill Downs with purses second to none running May through June, Ellis July through August, Ky Downs early September, Churchill late September, Keeneland October and Churchill through November. This is going to change the dynamics of racing in America.

    Already at Keeneland this fall we see primarily a New York trainer Todd Pletcher going to win the trainers title. We have Rosario and Saez riding exclusively at Keeneland this meet. California trainers who have never brought horses to Kentucky are present, Jonathan Wong is one example. In an interview he said you just couldnít ignore the size of the purses. California trainer John Sadler brought a horse named Bran to Ky Downs who won and will be in the Breeders Cup next week.

    In the rest of the country the New York tracks are holding their own. Although Kentucky purses have now surpassed them on any given day. Sadly California racing is in the steepest decline. (Well that statement ignores Illinois racing which is damn near extinct.) Purses are smaller and the fields are often only 5 or 6 horses. I noticed during Del Marís last meet Pacific Classic day when Flightline obliterated the field less than 15,000 people were at the track. Gulfstreamís winter meet is still good thanks to crappy winter weather in New York and Kentucky, but the rest of the year round meet is just so so. The one track which has expanded its race days and purses is Oaklawn in Hot Springs, Arkansas. Once again they received special legislation allowing casinos only where affiliated with a track. The greyhound track at West Memphis Arkansas got one, now dog racing is ending this year, but they get to keep the casino.

    As DevilHorse mentioned the yearling prices have exploded. I heard a farm manager say on TVG this is the only time he could remember where owning a horse made sense. Quite a bold statement for a major farm manager. It was Elliot Walden of Windstar. All of this was because of the rising purses primarily in Kentucky but also Arkansas.

    Iíve been watching horse racing since 1971. Iíve seen the decline first hand in other states, went to Hialeah twenty five years ago, then to Hollywood Park many years ago. Both sadly closed. Horse racing is a great sport. The athletes are not spoiled, holding out for a better contract, demanding trades etc. The jockeys are amazing too. Right now at Keeneland is a 68 year old jockey, Perry Outzs. I cringe every time he rides that he will get injured. Another jockey, Jon Court is 62, but he appears to be in great shape. Perry on the other hand looks his age. I will admit when it comes to gambling pushing a button or knowing when to hit in Blackjack is much easier than picking a winning horse. But no other gambling experience can match the beauty of horse racing. Iím proud Kentucky has proactively supported its premier industry. I suspect we will continue to see more top notch trainers, jockeys and horses making their way to the bluegrass state. Speaking of which, the Breeders Cup is in Kentucky at Keeneland starting a week from tomorrow.

  10. #490
    Quote Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMeDoIt View Post
    As a born and bred Kentuckian I will admit to bias regarding horse racing. Quite frankly Ky is only well known for three things, bourbon, horses and UK basketball. Despite having an advanced degree from UK, I am not a UK basketball fan unless they are playing Tennessee, my new home state.

    Horse racing has been a declining industry for decades. DevilHorse has provided stats for the decline in the number of yearly foals. But horse racing in Kentucky has reached new heights thanks to what are called historical horse racing machines, known anywhere else as slots machines. Only race tracks can offer HHR machines and a certain percentage of the handle must be returned to the purse structure. The most visible example of that has been Ky Downs which paid out over $17 million during seven days of racing. That boutique meet brought in the best riders, trainers and horses this year. (Please note Ky Downs only races on grass, so the best dirt horses arenít going to show up.)

    Now Churchill Downs has announced it has purchased Ellis Park, a small track on the north side of the Ohio River just south of Evansville Indiana. Yes, north side is correct, the river moved in the last two hundred plus years and left a small part of Kentucky north of the Ohio river in that one spot. Everywhere else in Kentucky when you cross the Ohio River youíre in either Illinois, Indiana or Ohio.

    The significance of the purchase is Churchill will install more slots, including in Owensboro, Ky, and will over time significantly increase the purse structure of Ellisí purses. Already trainers such as Cox, Asmussen, Maker and others were racing at Ellis which runs during July and August. Now you will have Keeneland with huge purses running in April, Churchill Downs with purses second to none running May through June, Ellis July through August, Ky Downs early September, Churchill late September, Keeneland October and Churchill through November. This is going to change the dynamics of racing in America.

    Already at Keeneland this fall we see primarily a New York trainer Todd Pletcher going to win the trainers title. We have Rosario and Saez riding exclusively at Keeneland this meet. California trainers who have never brought horses to Kentucky are present, Jonathan Wong is one example. In an interview he said you just couldnít ignore the size of the purses. California trainer John Sadler brought a horse named Bran to Ky Downs who won and will be in the Breeders Cup next week.

    In the rest of the country the New York tracks are holding their own. Although Kentucky purses have now surpassed them on any given day. Sadly California racing is in the steepest decline. (Well that statement ignores Illinois racing which is damn near extinct.) Purses are smaller and the fields are often only 5 or 6 horses. I noticed during Del Marís last meet Pacific Classic day when Flightline obliterated the field less than 15,000 people were at the track. Gulfstreamís winter meet is still good thanks to crappy winter weather in New York and Kentucky, but the rest of the year round meet is just so so. The one track which has expanded its race days and purses is Oaklawn in Hot Springs, Arkansas. Once again they received special legislation allowing casinos only where affiliated with a track. The greyhound track at West Memphis Arkansas got one, now dog racing is ending this year, but they get to keep the casino.

    As DevilHorse mentioned the yearling prices have exploded. I heard a farm manager say on TVG this is the only time he could remember where owning a horse made sense. Quite a bold statement for a major farm manager. It was Elliot Walden of Windstar. All of this was because of the rising purses primarily in Kentucky but also Arkansas.

    Iíve been watching horse racing since 1971. Iíve seen the decline first hand in other states, went to Hialeah twenty five years ago, then to Hollywood Park many years ago. Both sadly closed. Horse racing is a great sport. The athletes are not spoiled, holding out for a better contract, demanding trades etc. The jockeys are amazing too. Right now at Keeneland is a 68 year old jockey, Perry Outzs. I cringe every time he rides that he will get injured. Another jockey, Jon Court is 62, but he appears to be in great shape. Perry on the other hand looks his age. I will admit when it comes to gambling pushing a button or knowing when to hit in Blackjack is much easier than picking a winning horse. But no other gambling experience can match the beauty of horse racing. Iím proud Kentucky has proactively supported its premier industry. I suspect we will continue to see more top notch trainers, jockeys and horses making their way to the bluegrass state. Speaking of which, the Breeders Cup is in Kentucky at Keeneland starting a week from tomorrow.
    I think Kentucky is in a unique position because unlike the other states you mentioned, the state legislators would be vilified if they clawed back racing casino funds for other (sometimes worthy) purposes. In states like Pennsylvania, the legislature there found low hanging fruit in the cash going to purses, and raided it to the point where stallions are leaving the state. A similar affect happened in New Jersey when a subsidy (not a direct casino to purses situation) was dropped, stallions left, the sire stakes was dessimated, and the number of foals dropped by 2/3.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  11. #491
    Join Date
    Sep 2010
    Location
    Franklin TN
    Quote Originally Posted by DevilHorse View Post
    I think Kentucky is in a unique position because unlike the other states you mentioned, the state legislators would be vilified if they clawed back racing casino funds for other (sometimes worthy) purposes. In states like Pennsylvania, the legislature there found low hanging fruit in the cash going to purses, and raided it to the point where stallions are leaving the state. A similar affect happened in New Jersey when a subsidy (not a direct casino to purses situation) was dropped, stallions left, the sire stakes was dessimated, and the number of foals dropped by 2/3.

    Larry
    DevilHorse
    You are no doubt correct. Although it was not easy getting the historical horse racing legislation passed. There is still a lot of religious based animosity toward gambling. In this case the breeding industry put its financial muscle to work to get the job done. The biggest threat to Kentucky racing at this point would be for Tennessee to allow casinos. That would probably kill Ky. Downs. But as a now Tennessean I could not imagine the backwards thinking legislature in this state to even consider it. Plus the Kentucky breeding industry would financially support the churches in defeating such legislation in Tennessee. Thatís what the liquor stores in wet counties in Ky used to do when the dry county next door would vote on allowing liquor sales.

  12. #492
    Join Date
    Sep 2010
    Location
    Franklin TN

    High priced failures

    Just started handicapping Keeneland for today when noticed an example of the bets rich folks make on horses. In the first race owner Repole has a $700,000 purchase named Mahaamel. First they gelded him. Now they have dropped him into a $30,000 claiming race. He has won $120,000 and could win about $30,000 if he wins today. He is trained by Pletcher and obviously doesn’t make the grade for a Repole/Pletcher horse. So what, Repole only dropped a mere $500,000. It’s breathtaking to us little people!
    Last edited by TheDevilMadeMeDoIt; 10-28-2022 at 11:37 AM. Reason: Incorrect fact

  13. #493
    Join Date
    Sep 2010
    Location
    Franklin TN

    Interesting day at Churchill Downs

    Opening day races at November meet at Churchill today are all 2 year old races. Cheapest purse is $120,000, then 2 allowance races for $127,000 and 2 stakes races for $200,000 each. All the New York jockeys have gone home, so lots of money for the local guys to win. Not surprisingly there are a lot of high priced horses entered today. I was going to watch football but am now intrigued. Probably a lot of big payouts await as every field has about 12 horses.

  14. #494

    Busy Week

    Hello again.
    Where have you been?

    I've been busy and out of town for several weeks (with some stories). But I'm getting ready for a big week.

    This week we have the Breeder's Cup on Friday for the 2YOs and Saturday for everyone else.
    I'll post pointers soon (but first have a veterinarian issue).

    But to foment some discussion (well, thinking anyway), the Kentucky Derby (and Oaks) Futures Pool is going wild and is actually offering a bet before the BC Juvenile races:
    https://www.kentuckyderby.com/wager/future-wager
    Last year there were 3 or 4 pools; now they have 6.
    No PPs yet (for this) but you can use the BC Juvenile PPs (posted later).

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  15. #495

    Breeders Cup Friday - 11/4/2022

    Let's look at some races on the card this friday:

    Friday is 2YO day.

    Before the Breeder's Cup, there are a few races. I spotted an interesting horse in the 2YO maiden race:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [ URL above, Friday November 4, 2022; Keeneland - Race 2, PPs ]
    The number 2, Magical Song, is a homebred Tapit out of the mare Songbird. Songbird if you may recall was a monster horse; she won 13 of 15 and placed in the other 2 races. The works are ordinary at best. But she is ridden by Rosario and trained by B Cox.

    The first Breeder's Cup Race is Race 6, the BC Juvenile Turf Sprint:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [ URL above, Friday November 4, 2022; Keeneland - Race 6, PPs ]
    The Platinum, Love Reigns, and Speed Boat Beach are top contenders.

    Breeder's Cup Race 7, the BC Juvenile Fillies:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [ URL above, Friday November 4, 2022; Keeneland - Race 7, PPs ]
    Chop Chop, Wonder Wheel, and Atomically are top contenders.

    Breeder's Cup Race 8, the BC Juvenile Fillies Turf:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [ URL above, Friday November 4, 2022; Keeneland - Race 8, PPs ]
    G Laurie, Free Look, and Last Call are the top contenders.

    Breeder's Cup Race 9, the BC Juvenile - The big race!:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [ URL above, Friday November 4, 2022; Keeneland - Race 9, PPs ]
    Cave Rock and Forte are the top contenders. But Cave Rock has been a monster.


    Breeder's Cup Race 10, the BC Juvenile Turf!:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [ URL above, Friday November 4, 2022; Keeneland - Race 10, PPs ]
    I'm Very Busy, Packs A Whalop, and Andthewinneris are top contenders.

    Note that the runners entered are not settled in the program. There are a few horses that are double entered (in 2 races) and they have to pick only one race (obviously). So some entrants and post positions could change.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  16. #496

    Breeder's Cup Saturday - 11/5/2022

    Day 2 of the Breeder's Cup. Again, the PPs reflect preliminary sequence and eligible runners:

    Race 1 is another 2YO maiden race, with at least 1 interesting horse:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [ URL above, Saturday November 5, 2022; Keeneland - Race 1, PPs ]
    Arabian Knight is a $2.3M first timer.


    Race 3 is the BC F&M Sprint:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [ URL above, Saturday November 5, 2022; Keeneland - Race 3, PPs ]
    Last year's winner was Ce Ce, and she is entered here, but might not be the favorite; Goodnight Olive and Echo Zulu will be tough.

    Race 4 is the BC Turf Sprint:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [ URL above, Saturday November 5, 2022; Keeneland - Race 4, PPs ]
    Last year's winner, Golden Pal, will be challenged by Campanelle.

    Race 5 is the BC Dirt Mile:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [ URL above, Saturday November 5, 2022; Keeneland - Race 5, PPs ]
    Cyberknife, Gunite, and Cody's Wish are top contenders. Senor Buscador is coming into his own after a long layoff. Note: Gunite is racing after (only) 2 weeks; Cyberknife is double entered so he may not race here.

    Race 6 is the BC F&M Turf:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [ URL above, Saturday November 5, 2022; Keeneland - Race 6, PPs ]
    The Queen of Canadian turfdom, Moira, will take on In Italian and Rougir.

    Race 7 is the BC Sprint:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [ URL above, Saturday November 5, 2022; Keeneland - Race 7, PPs ]
    Now we're talking. Jackie's Warrior has looked like he's lost a little on his fastball, but will still be formidable; he lost a 7f race last out, but this is 6f. The mare Kimari may be his toughest competition since other sprint candidates will be going in longer races. Aloha West won last year and will be in the race.

    Race 8 is the original BC Mile run on the Turf:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [ URL above, Saturday November 5, 2022; Keeneland - Race 8, PPs ]
    Regal Glory may be wearing down, but should be there. European entrants abound and may grab the prize; Modern Games looks most formidable.


    Race 9 is the BC Distaff (no such thing as a 3YO only race):
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [ URL above, Saturday November 5, 2022; Keeneland - Race 9, PPs ]
    Nest, Malathaat, Clairere, and Secret Oath are the headliners. Note that 3YOs like Nest/SecretOath get a 3 lb weight allowance,.


    Race 10 is the BC Turf for $4M:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [ URL above, Saturday November 5, 2022; Keeneland - Race 10, PPs ]
    Nations Pride, War Like Goddess, Rebel's Romance, and a diminished Mishriff (has won $15M) are the contenders.

    Race 11 is the BC Classic for $6M:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [ URL above, Saturday November 5, 2022; Keeneland - Race 11, PPs ]
    Is it Flightline vs. Life Is Good. I don't think Life Is Good is at his best at 1 1/4 miles, but he is a great horse! Flightline, we don't know what his best distance is; so far it is ALL OF THEM. Life Is Good is tough on the lead, and we have seen Flightline rate from a stalker position; I'd expect that to be what the race evolves into. Flightline would be dumb to get into a speed battle, but he has to maintain an outside position so he isn't boxed in. Hot Rod Charlie (controversy about his last win with possible illegal horse shoes), Taiba (with Mike Smith), Olympiad (last race before stud service), and Rich Strike (Sonny Leon rides even after that mental mistake in the last race) all could get a piece in this 8 horse field.

    Let the handicapping and predictions begin.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  17. #497
    Join Date
    Sep 2010
    Location
    Franklin TN
    Quote Originally Posted by DevilHorse View Post
    Day 2 of the Breeder's Cup. Again, the PPs reflect preliminary sequence and eligible runners:

    Race 1 is another 2YO maiden race, with at least 1 interesting horse:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [ URL above, Saturday November 5, 2022; Keeneland - Race 1, PPs ]
    Arabian Knight is a $2.3M first timer.


    Race 3 is the BC F&M Sprint:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [ URL above, Saturday November 5, 2022; Keeneland - Race 3, PPs ]
    Last year's winner was Ce Ce, and she is entered here, but might not be the favorite; Goodnight Olive and Echo Zulu will be tough.

    Race 4 is the BC Turf Sprint:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [ URL above, Saturday November 5, 2022; Keeneland - Race 4, PPs ]
    Last year's winner, Golden Pal, will be challenged by Campanelle.

    Race 5 is the BC Dirt Mile:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [ URL above, Saturday November 5, 2022; Keeneland - Race 5, PPs ]
    Cyberknife, Gunite, and Cody's Wish are top contenders. Senor Buscador is coming into his own after a long layoff. Note: Gunite is racing after (only) 2 weeks; Cyberknife is double entered so he may not race here.

    Race 6 is the BC F&M Turf:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [ URL above, Saturday November 5, 2022; Keeneland - Race 6, PPs ]
    The Queen of Canadian turfdom, Moira, will take on In Italian and Rougir.

    Race 7 is the BC Sprint:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [ URL above, Saturday November 5, 2022; Keeneland - Race 7, PPs ]
    Now we're talking. Jackie's Warrior has looked like he's lost a little on his fastball, but will still be formidable; he lost a 7f race last out, but this is 6f. The mare Kimari may be his toughest competition since other sprint candidates will be going in longer races. Aloha West won last year and will be in the race.

    Race 8 is the original BC Mile run on the Turf:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [ URL above, Saturday November 5, 2022; Keeneland - Race 8, PPs ]
    Regal Glory may be wearing down, but should be there. European entrants abound and may grab the prize; Modern Games looks most formidable.


    Race 9 is the BC Distaff (no such thing as a 3YO only race):
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [ URL above, Saturday November 5, 2022; Keeneland - Race 9, PPs ]
    Nest, Malathaat, Clairere, and Secret Oath are the headliners. Note that 3YOs like Nest/SecretOath get a 3 lb weight allowance,.


    Race 10 is the BC Turf for $4M:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [ URL above, Saturday November 5, 2022; Keeneland - Race 10, PPs ]
    Nations Pride, War Like Goddess, Rebel's Romance, and a diminished Mishriff (has won $15M) are the contenders.

    Race 11 is the BC Classic for $6M:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [ URL above, Saturday November 5, 2022; Keeneland - Race 11, PPs ]
    Is it Flightline vs. Life Is Good. I don't think Life Is Good is at his best at 1 1/4 miles, but he is a great horse! Flightline, we don't know what his best distance is; so far it is ALL OF THEM. Life Is Good is tough on the lead, and we have seen Flightline rate from a stalker position; I'd expect that to be what the race evolves into. Flightline would be dumb to get into a speed battle, but he has to maintain an outside position so he isn't boxed in. Hot Rod Charlie (controversy about his last win with possible illegal horse shoes), Taiba (with Mike Smith), Olympiad (last race before stud service), and Rich Strike (Sonny Leon rides even after that mental mistake in the last race) all could get a piece in this 8 horse field.

    Let the handicapping and predictions begin.

    Larry
    DevilHorse
    Iíve read everything I can find. Looked at best post positions, how favorites fare ( they do the worst in the turf races) etc. There will be some good payouts but finding the winner is almost impossible in a few of the races. By the way thanks ACC for scheduling Duke football for Friday night so I can watch every BC race.

    To me the 8th race Friday, 1 mile 2 y/o turf may be the toughest. I came up with 7 horses with legitimate chances but I will go on the record as picking #5 Pleasant Passage. The best European looks to be Meditate but has never run past 7 furlongs, 7/8th of a mile.

    I hate to say it but in the 9th, BC Juvenile, Baffertís #3 Cave Rock looks like not only the winner, but the favorite for the Derby. He will need a new trainer unless Baffert wins a lawsuit against Churchill Downs as his suspension will prohibit him from running the horse in the Derby.

    In the 10th, one mile on the turf, I like Andthewinneris who will probably be the favorite. I acknowledge I never know how to bet the Europeans as the racing form has so little information.

    Surely DevilHorse and I are not the only Dukies looking at the Breeders Cup races. Iím guessing many of you in the Carolinas are prohibited by law from playing the ponies. What a bunch of hypocrites who allow betting college sports in the Southeast but wonít let you place a bet on a horse. And for God sakes donít get me started on absurd alcohol laws in the South.

  18. #498
    Quote Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMeDoIt View Post
    Iíve read everything I can find. Looked at best post positions, how favorites fare ( they do the worst in the turf races) etc. There will be some good payouts but finding the winner is almost impossible in a few of the races. By the way thanks ACC for scheduling Duke football for Friday night so I can watch every BC race.

    To me the 8th race Friday, 1 mile 2 y/o turf may be the toughest. I came up with 7 horses with legitimate chances but I will go on the record as picking #5 Pleasant Passage. The best European looks to be Meditate but has never run past 7 furlongs, 7/8th of a mile.

    I hate to say it but in the 9th, BC Juvenile, Baffertís #3 Cave Rock looks like not only the winner, but the favorite for the Derby. He will need a new trainer unless Baffert wins a lawsuit against Churchill Downs as his suspension will prohibit him from running the horse in the Derby.

    In the 10th, one mile on the turf, I like Andthewinneris who will probably be the favorite. I acknowledge I never know how to bet the Europeans as the racing form has so little information.

    Surely DevilHorse and I are not the only Dukies looking at the Breeders Cup races. Iím guessing many of you in the Carolinas are prohibited by law from playing the ponies. What a bunch of hypocrites who allow betting college sports in the Southeast but wonít let you place a bet on a horse. And for God sakes donít get me started on absurd alcohol laws in the South.
    Cave Rock looks like a lock to win the juvy. But of all of the horses that run in the BC, it is the 2YOs that tend to improve the most on any given day. We can expect 1 or 2 big balloons I'd expect on Friday.

    Odd seeing Baffert being able to race at Keeneland when prohibited at CD.

    TVG accounts are not allowed in NC? In NJ we have a special flavor of TVG; they don't run the same promotions or have the same access as the regular TVG.

    Voting on election day includes internet gambling in California. That will boost some betting pools and perhaps purses.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  19. #499
    Join Date
    Sep 2010
    Location
    Franklin TN
    Quote Originally Posted by DevilHorse View Post
    Cave Rock looks like a lock to win the juvy. But of all of the horses that run in the BC, it is the 2YOs that tend to improve the most on any given day. We can expect 1 or 2 big balloons I'd expect on Friday.

    Odd seeing Baffert being able to race at Keeneland when prohibited at CD.

    TVG accounts are not allowed in NC? In NJ we have a special flavor of TVG; they don't run the same promotions or have the same access as the regular TVG.

    Voting on election day includes internet gambling in California. That will boost some betting pools and perhaps purses.

    Larry
    DevilHorse
    Tennessee has interesting gambling laws. Sports betting is now legal but only online. Twinspires ( Churchill Downs) is legal in Tennessee. Thatís what I use. TVG now known as FanDuel has legal sports betting in Tennessee but isnít licensed for horse race betting. The excuse is they didnít want to muddle the issue when they applied for their gambling license. I had TVG and Twinspires accounts when I lived in Kentucky. I miss some of the online information that TVG provides its customers. Every time I go to their site I have to allow my location and the site then blocks me. I love the way the states protect us from ourselves!

  20. #500

    BC Friday is Today!

    Quote Originally Posted by DevilHorse View Post
    Let's look at some races on the card this friday:

    Friday is 2YO day.

    Before the Breeder's Cup, there are a few races. I spotted an interesting horse in the 2YO maiden race:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [ URL above, Friday November 4, 2022; Keeneland - Race 2, PPs ]
    The number 2, Magical Song, is a homebred Tapit out of the mare Songbird. Songbird if you may recall was a monster horse; she won 13 of 15 and placed in the other 2 races. The works are ordinary at best. But she is ridden by Rosario and trained by B Cox.

    The first Breeder's Cup Race is Race 6, the BC Juvenile Turf Sprint:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [ URL above, Friday November 4, 2022; Keeneland - Race 6, PPs ]
    The Platinum, Love Reigns, and Speed Boat Beach are top contenders.

    Breeder's Cup Race 7, the BC Juvenile Fillies:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [ URL above, Friday November 4, 2022; Keeneland - Race 7, PPs ]
    Chop Chop, Wonder Wheel, and Atomically are top contenders.

    Breeder's Cup Race 8, the BC Juvenile Fillies Turf:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [ URL above, Friday November 4, 2022; Keeneland - Race 8, PPs ]
    G Laurie, Free Look, and Last Call are the top contenders.

    Breeder's Cup Race 9, the BC Juvenile - The big race!:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [ URL above, Friday November 4, 2022; Keeneland - Race 9, PPs ]
    Cave Rock and Forte are the top contenders. But Cave Rock has been a monster.


    Breeder's Cup Race 10, the BC Juvenile Turf!:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [ URL above, Friday November 4, 2022; Keeneland - Race 10, PPs ]
    I'm Very Busy, Packs A Whalop, and Andthewinneris are top contenders.

    Note that the runners entered are not settled in the program. There are a few horses that are double entered (in 2 races) and they have to pick only one race (obviously). So some entrants and post positions could change.

    Larry
    DevilHorse
    Today is Breeder's Cup Friday. The powers that be have recognized that there are too many specialities/divisions in horse racing (up to 15 now) to put all of the races on one day. So they divided the races into a 2 day extravaganza. OK, so today is all of the 2YO races. I always appreciated that the 2YO race, setting the stage for next year's KYD, was just a few hours before the BC Classic. But whatever..

    The main races, for me, are the BC Juvenile (Race 9) and the BC Juvenile Fillies (Race 7).

    The Juvenile race is headed by Cave Rock who has been the most visually impressive, and statistically impressive, 2YO in training. So should I be picking the horse that has the best chance to win or a horse with the best Return On Investment (ROI). If the morning line was true, then Cave Rock at 4/5 is a better choice than Forte' at 4/1 odds. Do you think Forte would lose 4 of 5 races to Cave Rock? Previous winners in the last decade have included Texas Red and Corniche, both of whom were great on this day but never again. Texas Red was a big longshot. I've mentioned before that 2YOs change a lot over the course of their young lives. Although statistically Cave Rock looks unbeatable, Forte' and even National Treasure might have a shot if Cave Rock is softened up. Forte' has Irad and Pletcher in his corner; he has a legit shot. I think Cave Rock will win, but I would be Forte' because of expectation value.

    The Juvenile Filly race:
    This is a more interesting race. Wonder Wheel looks like a lukewarm favorite. Atomically is interesting; her times are good, and she switches to Pletcher and the very aggressive Luis Saez (huge steps up from previous connections). Chop Chop came from off the pace to just miss beating Wonder Wheel. And Tell Me Nolies has done what is needed. Often this race depends on which filly is feeling good today. I would look at Atomically and Chop Chop to be on top if Wonder Wheel is challenged on the lead.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

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