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  1. #21

    For Authentic Fans

    Authentic became a proud papa yesterday:
    authenticFoal1.jpg

    I know he has fans on this site. He had a total of 229 mares declared in foal and stands for a $70k live foal fee. Nothing correlates with a high pregnancy rate like the stud fee. The little guy in the picture looks like he'll be a grey; what do you think.

    In other news, Maximum Security also had his first foal this week. Since he was more humbly bred, and had a bit of a cloud over his trainers, ahem, methods, it isn't obvious how well his progeny will fair on the track. We'll see. We do know with Authentic that Into Mischief's bloodline can sire sire's.

    The Pegasus is shaping up to be a two horse exacta, Knicks Go over Life Is Good. They had to send out a second round of invitations to fill the race.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  2. #22
    OK, something for everyone this weekend.

    For the Derby folks, the 2nd KYD Pool will be coming out this Friday. The PPs are below. Here are 2 articles about how the bet has been doing the last few years and possible contenders this year. Not much confidence with the Pool of unknown horses as the favorite with 7-5.
    https://www.horseracingnation.com/ne...ger_Pool_2_123
    https://www.horseracingnation.com/ne...ger_Pool_2_123
    PPs are here:

    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [ URL, January 22, 2022, Ky Derby Future - Race 2, PPs ]

    As for races, the headliner for the weekend is the LeComte at the Fair Grounds in New Ahwleens:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [ URL, January 22, 2022, Fair Grounds - Race 14, PPs ]
    Pappacap is certainly the most accomplished of the horses in this group; if he runs back to any of his earlier races, he wins. He is by last year's breakthrough sire, Gun Runner, who got better with age.
    Epicenter (won the Gun Runner Stakes) and Cyberknife (by Gun Runner) will have to step up their game to sniff Pappacap if he is right.

    Also at the Fair Grounds is the Looosiana Handicap:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [ URL, January 22, 2022, Fair Grounds - Race 13, PPs ]
    Midnight Bourbon vs. Mandaloun.
    These 2 warriors both get Lasix (whether or not they need it) and Midnight Bourbon get blinkers.
    Great trainers, great jockeys. I think Midnight Bourbon goes to the front, and only holds on if he's in shape. There is some other early speed in there, but they are cheap speed. Rosario is a great jockey and will keep MB cool. These are two very good horses (not Knicks Go good, very good) and they'll put on a show.
    Chess Chief might skim the rail for third.

    For the 3YO Fillies at the Fair Grounds is the Silverbulletday:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [ URL, January 22, 2022, Fair Grounds - Race 11, PPs ]
    Sweet As Pie and Fannie and Freddie look to be the class.


    Caddo River runs in a comeback race at Oaklawn Park.
    But there doesn't seem to be much interest in the lesser old folks. (am I wrong?)

    A really good looking potential first timer in a 3YO maiden race at the Fair Grounds, but he is an AE (Also Eligible). He may not draw in.
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...5/summary.html
    [ URL, January 22, 2022, Fair Grounds - Race 9, PPs ]
    Zozos is by Munnings and shows lots of bullet works. He looks like he will be a winner when he runs and has a future.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  3. #23

    Really Weird Stuff

    OK, this article caught my eye:
    https://www.paulickreport.com/news/t...hez-suspended/

    There are no details in here, but it suggests that a jockey bet against himself in a race.
    I presume that meant that he bet on someone else in a race.

    Based on past experience, this is entirely plausible and racetracks have historically not done the best of jobs educating racetrack personnel nor discouraging this type of behavior.

    Let's make a few observations:
    1) trainers, grooms, jockeys involved with horse races, even if they put forth the best of efforts, are in really good positions to know more about what is going to happen in a race than almost anyone else who is betting. They watch more races, they know how horses are feeling (and how they trained), they talk to the participants about what is going on with tendencies and tactics... all of this is legitimate inside information that they are privy to.
    2) there have been some jurisdictions where betting windows have been provided in with the jockeys and trainers for their convenience. That's right, over where the horses are, if they see something, or hear something, I have seen a betting window where a bet can be place. I specifically saw one of these in the State of Pennsylvania at Pocono Downs. I thought it was crazy and prone to corruption. (they may have closed it down since then).
    3) When I first started going to the track, they used to have pay phones at the track that stopped working when post time for the first race went off. With the advent of cell phones, it doesn't matter, and some of you may not even recognize a pay phone except that Superman used to change in them. Trainers/grooms/etc.. have friends and confederates make their bets when they can't get to the windows. These folks are at the track and they bet. They lose more than they win.

    There are rules that I am aware of, that I (as an owner) have been educated about, that if I have a horse in a race, I CAN NOT bet against my horse!!!!
    I can bet on my horse, but I can't bet against him.
    That still opens up a lot of questions. If my horse is 50-1, can I have him finishing 2nd in an Exacta wheel? I don't know, I don't make bets like that so I never asked, but is that betting against my horse or betting on it? Is $2 to show on my horse betting on it or betting that he won't win or finish 2nd?

    Of course, I don't drive or ride the horse or control tactics, but I usually know about whether a horse is going for it hard vs. trying to come from behind to get a check. That is my privilege as an owner. But the driver/jockey always has the last say. Some driver/jockeys never listen to trainer suggestions and always do their own things for their own reasons. That's OK sometimes because the race dictates tactics (sometimes). It is truly a crap shoot. I never felt I had fully reliable inside information that I could bet on. I gave up betting on my horses; it was much easier on my wallet and my ability to evaluate the race. Finishing 2nd in a race is really a great thing, but not when you have a win ticket.

    Some trainers race their horses into shape on the track, that is a known handicapping strategy that should be considered and employed by handicappers. Others have their horses ready to go out of the gate. That is fair.

    How do you regulate all of this with Cell Phones and TVG accounts???

    If a jockey/driver is manipulating a race with something other than trainer's tendencies or what is in the program, that is a problem.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  4. #24
    Anybody want to buy in on some 2YOs with Chad Brown?
    https://ci3.googleusercontent.com/pr.../MRH0122/1.png

    More here:
    https://myracehorse.com/app/singleHorseView/6489


    Just $234 per share.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  5. #25
    Join Date
    Sep 2010
    Location
    Franklin TN
    Quote Originally Posted by DevilHorse View Post
    Anybody want to buy in on some 2YOs with Chad Brown?
    https://ci3.googleusercontent.com/pr.../MRH0122/1.png

    More here:
    https://myracehorse.com/app/singleHorseView/6489


    Just $234 per share.

    Larry
    DevilHorse
    Wow, I now own an interest in three horses. I had thought about buying an interest previously but never pulled the trigger. Do you receive a commission? At least I have a good trainer. What are the odds one of these might break its maiden?

    Nothing like waking up in Middle Tennessee with a temperature of 12 degrees and a new Christmas puppy to walk. What a gal, an Irish Terrier, as lively as a Wire Fox Terrier my wife and I owned almost 50 years ago.

    You also have me considering an Derby futures bet. Leaning toward Jack Christopher or McPeekís Run Happy colt. McPeek appears to have a strong contingency of 3 yoís. Do you have any early Derby favorites?

  6. #26
    Quote Originally Posted by DevilHorse View Post
    As for races, the headliner for the weekend is the LeComte at the Fair Grounds in New Ahwleens:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [ URL, January 22, 2022, Fair Grounds - Race 14, PPs ]
    Pappacap is certainly the most accomplished of the horses in this group; if he runs back to any of his earlier races, he wins. He is by last year's breakthrough sire, Gun Runner, who got better with age.
    Epicenter (won the Gun Runner Stakes) and Cyberknife (by Gun Runner) will have to step up their game to sniff Pappacap if he is right.

    Also at the Fair Grounds is the Looosiana Handicap:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [ URL, January 22, 2022, Fair Grounds - Race 13, PPs ]
    Midnight Bourbon vs. Mandaloun.
    These 2 warriors both get Lasix (whether or not they need it) and Midnight Bourbon get blinkers.
    Great trainers, great jockeys. I think Midnight Bourbon goes to the front, and only holds on if he's in shape. There is some other early speed in there, but they are cheap speed. Rosario is a great jockey and will keep MB cool. These are two very good horses (not Knicks Go good, very good) and they'll put on a show.
    Chess Chief might skim the rail for third.

    For the 3YO Fillies at the Fair Grounds is the Silverbulletday:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [ URL, January 22, 2022, Fair Grounds - Race 11, PPs ]
    Sweet As Pie and Fannie and Freddie look to be the class.


    Caddo River runs in a comeback race at Oaklawn Park.
    But there doesn't seem to be much interest in the lesser old folks. (am I wrong?)

    A really good looking potential first timer in a 3YO maiden race at the Fair Grounds, but he is an AE (Also Eligible). He may not draw in.
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...5/summary.html
    [ URL, January 22, 2022, Fair Grounds - Race 9, PPs ]
    Zozos is by Munnings and shows lots of bullet works. He looks like he will be a winner when he runs and has a future.

    Larry
    DevilHorse
    At the Fair Grounds, in the Le Comte, pace makes the race. Call Me Midnight, came out of the clouds to win:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    According to winning trainer, Keith Desormeaux (yes Ken's brother), jockey James Graham gets all of the credit for recognizing that most of the horses were caught in a fast pace; Graham kept his horse back and swept to the lead in the end. A well thought of Epicenter finished second and Pappacap finished 3rd.
    Call Me Midnight 88 Beyer.

    The Silverbulletday was won by La Crete:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    La Crete was passed in the stretch by Fannie And Freddie, but she could not maintain through the lane and La Crete retook.
    I thought the time was slow, so we'll see if any of these fillies moves on from here.
    La Crete 74 Beyer (ew).

    In the Louisiana Handicap, Mandaloun pulled away from Midnight Bourbon in deep stretch:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    Warrant was 8 lengths further back. The Saudi Cup may be the next step for the M&M boys.
    Here is the stretch run:
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1485242820701171715
    Mandaloun 106 Beyer.

    First Constitution looked good in the Jazil at Aqueduct for older horses
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on

    Cadoo River looked like dirt more than ran on it.

    That maiden race at the Fair Grounds was very interesting.
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    It was won by first timer Ferociously, who ran a strong race, but it was the $1.5M first time starter Vinco who raised some eyebrows. Ferociously went to the front and didn't look back. But Vinco got into some traffic problems; he had to check and fell back to last, 10 or lengths. At the head of the stretch, Vinco mounted more of a ferocious charge, but weeded his way through traffic (not conducive to keeping momentum up) and finished a satisfying second. We'll look for his next adventure. Ferociously is by Violence BTW; Violence first time starters averaging 17% winners (also trained by Steve Assmusen).
    Ferociously 64 Beyer.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  7. #27
    Quote Originally Posted by DevilHorse View Post

    A really good looking potential first timer in a 3YO maiden race at the Fair Grounds, but he is an AE (Also Eligible). He may not draw in.
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...5/summary.html
    [ URL, January 22, 2022, Fair Grounds - Race 9, PPs ]
    Zozos is by Munnings and shows lots of bullet works. He looks like he will be a winner when he runs and has a future.

    Larry
    DevilHorse
    Aaaargh!!!!

    I missed that Zozos was entered into a race on Sunday and he won for fun and paid $6.20 too.
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  8. #28
    Lots of stuff.

    First the races, then odd ball stuff.

    The Kentucky Derby Trail is ready to start shifting into great starting in the next couple of weekends. We have a couple of races this weekend for 3YOs of note:

    The San Vicente Stakes at Santa Anita will be up first:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...99/summary.htm
    [ URL above, Saturday January 29, 2022, Santa Anita Park - Race 4, PPs ]
    Looks like Pinehurst over Forbidden Kingdom based on production, but any of these horses could improve to win. They just are so talented and are improving.

    The Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park up next:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...99/summary.htm
    [ URL above, Saturday January 29, 2022, Oaklawn Park - Race 9, PPs ]
    Looks like Newgrange over Dash Attack. But Barber Road might be value here.

    Onto the Older horses..
    At Santa Anita, the Palos Verdes is being run:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...99/summary.htm
    [ URL above, Saturday January 29, 2022, Santa Anita Park - Race 9, PPs ]
    Welcome back to the great Cezanne who hopes to paint himself a win. We remember this $3.6M yearling who was a wow 2 summers ago, until he fell short in the Shared Belief. He then re-appeared last April for one brilliant minor stakes win in the Kona Gold, but disappeared again. But he's back and is hopefully sound. He will be challenged by Essential Wager (no not Essential Quality).

    In the 3YO Filly division, toward the KY Oaks, there is the Martha Washington at Oaklawn Park:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [ URL above, Saturday January 29, 2022, Gulfstream Park - Race 4, PPs ]
    Secret Oath and Optionality look to be the players here, but are not high on the KY Oaks contenders list at the moment.

    The big race, of course, for the weekend is the Pegasus at Gulfstream Park:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [ URL above, Saturday January 29, 2022, Gulfstream Park - Race 12, PPs ]
    This race is the swan song for Knicks Go, who will ride off to the sunset and go to stud. But it will not necessarily be easy, because before life is good, he will be challenged by BC Mile winner Life Is Good.
    Life Is Good is a great horse, but Knicks Go has been in a different area code and was voted the world's best horse by Longines last month. The exacta may pay $2.50.
    They had trouble filling this $3M race (what is it $300k for 3rd?, oh the agony). For Flightline, who will soon pick up the mantle of the World's Best Horse, it is just too soon since his last race, now that would have been a race of the year vs. Knicks Go!!! Maybe Life Is Good as a 4YO can get close for part of the race; who knows. $12M from the Saudi Cup isn't enough to keep Knicks Go from going to stud. Perhaps Stilleto Boy for 3rd. Sir Winston, the Belmont winner from 3 years ago, is also in the field, but this race may be too short for his talents.

    If I must, here is the $1M Pegasus Turf race:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...5/summary.html
    [ URL above, Saturday January 29, 2022, Gulfstream Park - Race 11, PPs ]
    Does someone else want to handicap?

    In other news, the Baffert/NYRA hearing is in its 3rd day, and there have been fireworks. As part of the defense, a Steward (named Lewandowski) was called in defense of Baffert (the Steward really never met Baffert), but under cross-examination the Steward went ballistic. Sounds like the stuff made for TV or the movies. The Steward says on the stand, " Are you accusing me of lying?...If you think I'm lying, then just accuse me of lying. Are you calling me a liar? Are you calling me a liar sir? Are you calling me a liar?" It was explained to him that the attorneys are allowed to ask the questions without having answer them. A loud tirade went on for minutes, and the prosecuting attorney allowed this witness to just .. go on. Nothing about a Code Red though. FYI, the hearing is about whether Baffert can be banished from NYRA; as you may recall, this banishment was put on hold for a number of months. Baffert has not been called to testify in his own defense.. yet.

    I read this morning that a 10 year old horse named Backsideofthemoon, that finished 3rd in the Queens County Stakes recently, has been ordered to leave the grounds at Belmont, where he was housed since 2015. The reason.. he's 10 years old. A new rule instituted last April by the NYRA says that 10 year old (race) horses can't race or be housed at NYRA tracks anymore. Apparently their fitness doesn't matter. For thoroughbreds and standardbreds, until this year, the mandatory retirement age was 14 years of age. The concern is that thoroughbreds that reach the age of 10, in New York, could potentially hurt themselves (or give New York Tracks a black eye if they hurt themselves in front of the public). Very few horses continue to race by the age of 10. I presume that accompanying ponies can be of any age; remember Lava Man?!

    Larry
    DevilHorse

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  9. #29
    Join Date
    Sep 2010
    Location
    Franklin TN
    Quote Originally Posted by DevilHorse View Post
    Lots of stuff.

    First the races, then odd ball stuff.

    The Kentucky Derby Trail is ready to start shifting into great starting in the next couple of weekends. We have a couple of races this weekend for 3YOs of note:

    The San Vicente Stakes at Santa Anita will be up first:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...99/summary.htm
    [ URL above, Saturday January 29, 2022, Santa Anita Park - Race 4, PPs ]
    Looks like Pinehurst over Forbidden Kingdom based on production, but any of these horses could improve to win. They just are so talented and are improving.

    The Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park up next:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...99/summary.htm
    [ URL above, Saturday January 29, 2022, Oaklawn Park - Race 9, PPs ]
    Looks like Newgrange over Dash Attack. But Barber Road might be value here.

    Onto the Older horses..
    At Santa Anita, the Palos Verdes is being run:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...99/summary.htm
    [ URL above, Saturday January 29, 2022, Santa Anita Park - Race 9, PPs ]
    Welcome back to the great Cezanne who hopes to paint himself a win. We remember this $3.6M yearling who was a wow 2 summers ago, until he fell short in the Shared Belief. He then re-appeared last April for one brilliant minor stakes win in the Kona Gold, but disappeared again. But he's back and is hopefully sound. He will be challenged by Essential Wager (no not Essential Quality).

    In the 3YO Filly division, toward the KY Oaks, there is the Martha Washington at Oaklawn Park:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [ URL above, Saturday January 29, 2022, Gulfstream Park - Race 4, PPs ]
    Secret Oath and Optionality look to be the players here, but are not high on the KY Oaks contenders list at the moment.

    The big race, of course, for the weekend is the Pegasus at Gulfstream Park:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [ URL above, Saturday January 29, 2022, Gulfstream Park - Race 12, PPs ]
    This race is the swan song for Knicks Go, who will ride off to the sunset and go to stud. But it will not necessarily be easy, because before life is good, he will be challenged by BC Mile winner Life Is Good.
    Life Is Good is a great horse, but Knicks Go has been in a different area code and was voted the world's best horse by Longines last month. The exacta may pay $2.50.
    They had trouble filling this $3M race (what is it $300k for 3rd?, oh the agony). For Flightline, who will soon pick up the mantle of the World's Best Horse, it is just too soon since his last race, now that would have been a race of the year vs. Knicks Go!!! Maybe Life Is Good as a 4YO can get close for part of the race; who knows. $12M from the Saudi Cup isn't enough to keep Knicks Go from going to stud. Perhaps Stilleto Boy for 3rd. Sir Winston, the Belmont winner from 3 years ago, is also in the field, but this race may be too short for his talents.

    If I must, here is the $1M Pegasus Turf race:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...5/summary.html
    [ URL above, Saturday January 29, 2022, Gulfstream Park - Race 11, PPs ]
    Does someone else want to handicap?

    In other news, the Baffert/NYRA hearing is in its 3rd day, and there have been fireworks. As part of the defense, a Steward (named Lewandowski) was called in defense of Baffert (the Steward really never met Baffert), but under cross-examination the Steward went ballistic. Sounds like the stuff made for TV or the movies. The Steward says on the stand, " Are you accusing me of lying?...If you think I'm lying, then just accuse me of lying. Are you calling me a liar? Are you calling me a liar sir? Are you calling me a liar?" It was explained to him that the attorneys are allowed to ask the questions without having answer them. A loud tirade went on for minutes, and the prosecuting attorney allowed this witness to just .. go on. Nothing about a Code Red though. FYI, the hearing is about whether Baffert can be banished from NYRA; as you may recall, this banishment was put on hold for a number of months. Baffert has not been called to testify in his own defense.. yet.

    I read this morning that a 10 year old horse named Backsideofthemoon, that finished 3rd in the Queens County Stakes recently, has been ordered to leave the grounds at Belmont, where he was housed since 2015. The reason.. he's 10 years old. A new rule instituted last April by the NYRA says that 10 year old (race) horses can't race or be housed at NYRA tracks anymore. Apparently their fitness doesn't matter. For thoroughbreds and standardbreds, until this year, the mandatory retirement age was 14 years of age. The concern is that thoroughbreds that reach the age of 10, in New York, could potentially hurt themselves (or give New York Tracks a black eye if they hurt themselves in front of the public). Very few horses continue to race by the age of 10. I presume that accompanying ponies can be of any age; remember Lava Man?!

    Larry
    DevilHorse

    Larry
    DevilHorse
    I take it from previous comments you donít love turf racing, or maybe it is the quality of this field. I took a quick look and thought there were several candidates, so being in winter lazy mode I moved on. I will make a couple of comments on turf racing. Admittedly I have seen far fewer turf races, but I donít recall seeing a horse in a turf race suffer a catastrophic injury. Secondly you see a lot of really close finishes. On the downside you see a lot of races lost due to traffic problems.

    On the issue of 10 year olds, donít some older thoroughbreds become steeplechase horses?

  10. #30
    Quote Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMeDoIt View Post
    I take it from previous comments you donít love turf racing, or maybe it is the quality of this field. I took a quick look and thought there were several candidates, so being in winter lazy mode I moved on. I will make a couple of comments on turf racing. Admittedly I have seen far fewer turf races, but I donít recall seeing a horse in a turf race suffer a catastrophic injury. Secondly you see a lot of really close finishes. On the downside you see a lot of races lost due to traffic problems.

    On the issue of 10 year olds, donít some older thoroughbreds become steeplechase horses?
    Turf racing is fine. But it is different. They negative split for the most part (accelerate down the lane often); in a lot of races, this creates a tactical race where you have quite often, a sprint in the last (shortened) stretch. Even in long races, it becomes a sprint at the end. I do like how it is easier on the horses, and how they write more races for younger horses. There might be a lot of good rhyme and reason to be found here, but I'm focussing on mostly dirt horses for now. My handicapping seems to have been more successful, so why open my mouth and prove I'm a bad handicapper in turf races . Some turf horses I will enjoy and latch onto though. The strong front runner, the stalker, and the come from behind kicker. But unless I'm at the track, since I look at a lot of races, I'd rather not look at turf races where there are usually much larger fields of older horses (on average).

    Traffic problems... Must be those right handed (whipping) jockeys and sprints to the end.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  11. #31
    Join Date
    Sep 2010
    Location
    Franklin TN
    Just checked out the Southwest at Oaklawn. Newgrange, a Baffert trainee will need a new trainer if he becomes Oaklawnís hot 3 year old. Iím beginning to wonder if we will know last yearís Derby winner by this yearís Derby. This is another bad look for horse racing. Make a ruling, then let Baffert spend millions hiring lawyers to fight it. Baffert has been successful and presumably is in good financial shape, but Churchill can force him to spend himself into oblivion. A best I can tell this illegal drug thing has become personal. My view of the Kentucky horse industry, meaning breeders and Churchill and Keeneland, is itís a small world.

    As a personal aside, I donít care much more for Churchill than I do Baffert. My problem with Churchill is their willingness to close tracks to sell off the real estate. I know theyíre a publicly traded company, but they need to be more protective of the tracks, particularly Arlington, which I assume will be sold off this year for a real estate development.

    Sorry for my continued Baffert rants. I know the sucker can train, which makes the drug issues even more disappointing. I guess he is the Bruce Pearl of horse trainers.

  12. #32
    Quote Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMeDoIt View Post
    Just checked out the Southwest at Oaklawn. Newgrange, a Baffert trainee will need a new trainer if he becomes Oaklawn’s hot 3 year old. I’m beginning to wonder if we will know last year’s Derby winner by this year’s Derby. This is another bad look for horse racing. Make a ruling, then let Baffert spend millions hiring lawyers to fight it. Baffert has been successful and presumably is in good financial shape, but Churchill can force him to spend himself into oblivion. A best I can tell this illegal drug thing has become personal. My view of the Kentucky horse industry, meaning breeders and Churchill and Keeneland, is it’s a small world.

    As a personal aside, I don’t care much more for Churchill than I do Baffert. My problem with Churchill is their willingness to close tracks to sell off the real estate. I know they’re a publicly traded company, but they need to be more protective of the tracks, particularly Arlington, which I assume will be sold off this year for a real estate development.

    Sorry for my continued Baffert rants. I know the sucker can train, which makes the drug issues even more disappointing. I guess he is the Bruce Pearl of horse trainers.
    Baffert testified on the stand yesterday at his hearing. Evidently he was not rattled too much by cross-examination. Not sure what that means, although he admitted to not saying what he wishes he would have said about some things (in the immediate aftermath of the KYD).

    However, he did say that the Churchill Downs investigation into last year's KYD situation with Medina Spirit will start on Feb 7th. So hopefully we will have a disposition on KYD 2021 long before KYD 2022. It is in everyone's best interests to do that.

    Granted that lots of Racetrack are closing up. But urban sprawl makes racetracks that were once on farmland, now in the (valuable) suburbs. That is a force of nature. Additionally, simulcasting makes it possible to need only a half dozen tracks in any one timezone to meet the appetite of any horse gambler. Of course, there are those of us who appreciate "BEING THERE!" But for years I've seen it suggested that there are forces that suggest that reducing the number of tracks, because the availability of simulcasting, is a force that is out there. Consider also, that they are not breeding enough horses to get the full fields at all tracks. There are a lot of races that I have highlighted for this week that have small fields.

    You are right about Newgrange, especially because he gets 0 KYD points because Baffert is his trainer. So he doesn't just have to change trainers, he has to change trainers early enough to accrue KYD points to get into the Triple Crown races.

    I did not mention earlier that Leslie's Lady, the dam of Into Mischief, Beholder, and Mendelssohn, passed this week. What a great mare.

    Also, one of those horses to watch that I mentioned, Vinco, is being pointed for a Feb. 19th start (Risen Star day). His unraced dam was purchased for $600k in a sale. That's a lot of confidence. Why? Because she's a tail female grand-daughter of Weekend Surprise! Super producer and dam of A.P. Indy, Weekend In Seattle, Tiger Ridge, and Summer Squall.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  13. #33
    For the Pegasus fans, which will be aired on NBC affiliates from 4:30 - 6:00 this afternoon:
    pegasus1.jpg
    There will be a change in jockey on Stilleto Boy. Kent Desormeaux will be replaced by Jose Ortiz (an improvement IMHO).

    Kent Desormeaux, who has had myriad problems with substance and alcohol abuse over the last decade, was arrested for domestic abuse yesterday. I'll spare you the details but it may be a long time before he is on a horse again.

    The Pegasus promises to pit perhaps the two most brilliant horses in the USA right now against each other, Knicks Go against Life Is Good. Both horses have high cruising speed and like to be on the lead. Classic set up for a speed duel. Will one of them be able to rate in this 1 1/8 mile contest. It is a bit long for Life Is Good, and a bit shorter for Knicks Go. Both are rested. I don't think Knicks Go will back up if there is a speed duel; he wins his last race.

    How often do we see 4YO first time starters? All too often I'm afraid. Owners and trainers sometimes have to be patient. Some horses never win and some never start at all. Today at Tampa Bay Downs, a horse named Aussie Pride gets his first lifetime start as a 4YO!
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [ URL above, Saturday January 29, 2022, Tampa Bay Downs - Race 8, PPs ]
    Did I neglect to mention that this was the second highest priced yearling at auction 3 years ago at $4.1M?!
    Who was the top priced yearling at over $8M? An American Pharoah colt out of the earlier mentioned Leslie's Lady (dam of Into Mischief, etc..). This foal is one of 5 of 14 of Leslie's Lady's foals to NOT ever to have raced. Breeding and Racing is a tough business.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  14. #34
    Quote Originally Posted by DevilHorse View Post
    Lots of stuff.

    First the races, then odd ball stuff.

    The Kentucky Derby Trail is ready to start shifting into great starting in the next couple of weekends. We have a couple of races this weekend for 3YOs of note:

    The San Vicente Stakes at Santa Anita will be up first:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...99/summary.htm
    [ URL above, Saturday January 29, 2022, Santa Anita Park - Race 4, PPs ]
    Looks like Pinehurst over Forbidden Kingdom based on production, but any of these horses could improve to win. They just are so talented and are improving.

    The Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park up next:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...99/summary.htm
    [ URL above, Saturday January 29, 2022, Oaklawn Park - Race 9, PPs ]
    Looks like Newgrange over Dash Attack. But Barber Road might be value here.

    Onto the Older horses..
    At Santa Anita, the Palos Verdes is being run:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...99/summary.htm
    [ URL above, Saturday January 29, 2022, Santa Anita Park - Race 9, PPs ]
    Welcome back to the great Cezanne who hopes to paint himself a win. We remember this $3.6M yearling who was a wow 2 summers ago, until he fell short in the Shared Belief. He then re-appeared last April for one brilliant minor stakes win in the Kona Gold, but disappeared again. But he's back and is hopefully sound. He will be challenged by Essential Wager (no not Essential Quality).

    In the 3YO Filly division, toward the KY Oaks, there is the Martha Washington at Oaklawn Park:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [ URL above, Saturday January 29, 2022, Gulfstream Park - Race 4, PPs ]
    Secret Oath and Optionality look to be the players here, but are not high on the KY Oaks contenders list at the moment.

    The big race, of course, for the weekend is the Pegasus at Gulfstream Park:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [ URL above, Saturday January 29, 2022, Gulfstream Park - Race 12, PPs ]
    This race is the swan song for Knicks Go, who will ride off to the sunset and go to stud. But it will not necessarily be easy, because before life is good, he will be challenged by BC Mile winner Life Is Good.
    Life Is Good is a great horse, but Knicks Go has been in a different area code and was voted the world's best horse by Longines last month. The exacta may pay $2.50.
    They had trouble filling this $3M race (what is it $300k for 3rd?, oh the agony). For Flightline, who will soon pick up the mantle of the World's Best Horse, it is just too soon since his last race, now that would have been a race of the year vs. Knicks Go!!! Maybe Life Is Good as a 4YO can get close for part of the race; who knows. $12M from the Saudi Cup isn't enough to keep Knicks Go from going to stud. Perhaps Stilleto Boy for 3rd. Sir Winston, the Belmont winner from 3 years ago, is also in the field, but this race may be too short for his talents.

    If I must, here is the $1M Pegasus Turf race:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...5/summary.html
    [ URL above, Saturday January 29, 2022, Gulfstream Park - Race 11, PPs ]
    Does someone else want to handicap?

    In other news, the Baffert/NYRA hearing is in its 3rd day, and there have been fireworks. As part of the defense, a Steward (named Lewandowski) was called in defense of Baffert (the Steward really never met Baffert), but under cross-examination the Steward went ballistic. Sounds like the stuff made for TV or the movies. The Steward says on the stand, " Are you accusing me of lying?...If you think I'm lying, then just accuse me of lying. Are you calling me a liar? Are you calling me a liar sir? Are you calling me a liar?" It was explained to him that the attorneys are allowed to ask the questions without having answer them. A loud tirade went on for minutes, and the prosecuting attorney allowed this witness to just .. go on. Nothing about a Code Red though. FYI, the hearing is about whether Baffert can be banished from NYRA; as you may recall, this banishment was put on hold for a number of months. Baffert has not been called to testify in his own defense.. yet.

    I read this morning that a 10 year old horse named Backsideofthemoon, that finished 3rd in the Queens County Stakes recently, has been ordered to leave the grounds at Belmont, where he was housed since 2015. The reason.. he's 10 years old. A new rule instituted last April by the NYRA says that 10 year old (race) horses can't race or be housed at NYRA tracks anymore. Apparently their fitness doesn't matter. For thoroughbreds and standardbreds, until this year, the mandatory retirement age was 14 years of age. The concern is that thoroughbreds that reach the age of 10, in New York, could potentially hurt themselves (or give New York Tracks a black eye if they hurt themselves in front of the public). Very few horses continue to race by the age of 10. I presume that accompanying ponies can be of any age; remember Lava Man?!

    Larry
    DevilHorse

    Larry
    DevilHorse
    OK.

    The big race.
    Life Is Good was ready and was too good.
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    Awarded a lifetime best 110 Beyer, he got the jump on Knicks Go and never came back to him. A 46 1/5 half is tough to race into, but a 1:10 - 6 furlongs is a breather for this level. Knicks Go didn't have a chance at that point. The King is Dead, long live the King. It will be interesting to see if Life Is Good meets up with Flightline. Would Life Is Good have won last year's Kentucky Derby had he not been injured? It sure looks like it.
    Here is the race:
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1487559424218697738

    In the Southwest Stakes, Newgrange emerged from a pack of horses to win:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1487553889020911623
    Barber Road was second. Baffert may have to decide if he hands this colt off to another trainer or not since he has 'cooties' for 2 years with the Kentucky Derby people, and this horse appears to be able to compete with those horses.

    In the San Vicente, Forbidden Kingdom bottomed out the field to win:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    As the 3rd choice, this Richard Mandella trainee surprised the top 2 Baffert trained horses.



    Secret Oath was very impressive winning the Martha Washington and looks to be joining the favorites for the Kentucky Oaks:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1487510714172383232
    Her time may not be spectacular, but she was sitting behind a dawdling pace and exploded down the stretch. She is by... Arrogate!


    Essential Wager won the Palos Verdes:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    Cezanne did not get the best start and looked mortal with almost a year off.

    Colonel Liam won the Pegasus Turf:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    over second favorite Never Surprised.

    The Inside Information was won by Just In Time:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    Just In Time is by the young sire Not This Time (by Giant's Causeway by Storm Cat). He is the leading 2nd crop sire from last year. I don't remember much of Not This Time as a race horse. He won one stake (the Iroquois) as a 2YO and finished 2nd in the Juvenile BC in 2016 to Classic Empire and ahead of 3rd place finisher, and great young sire Practical Joke. He never raced as a 3YO. He has already thrown Princess Noor. There seem to be a lot of fast ones, but not unlike the sire Meadowlake, I'm not sure how sound they are; they seem to win a few races and then disappear. Just spitballing.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  15. #35
    Quote Originally Posted by DevilHorse View Post
    How often do we see 4YO first time starters? All too often I'm afraid. Owners and trainers sometimes have to be patient. Some horses never win and some never start at all. Today at Tampa Bay Downs, a horse named Aussie Pride gets his first lifetime start as a 4YO!
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
    [ URL above, Saturday January 29, 2022, Tampa Bay Downs - Race 8, PPs ]
    Did I neglect to mention that this was the second highest priced yearling at auction 3 years ago at $4.1M?!
    Who was the top priced yearling at over $8M? An American Pharoah colt out of the earlier mentioned Leslie's Lady (dam of Into Mischief, etc..). This foal is one of 5 of 14 of Leslie's Lady's foals to NOT ever to have raced. Breeding and Racing is a tough business.

    Larry
    DevilHorse
    BTW, how did Aussie Pride do yesterday? Pretty good. He didn't win, but he finished a good second:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on

    He finished behind another firster. Both of these two dropped back early in the race; they both moved forward as a tandem, but Aussie Pride went wide and moved greenly and ceded some momentum on the turn. He will win soon, assuming he came out of the race well.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  16. #36
    Quote Originally Posted by DevilHorse View Post
    OK.


    In the San Vicente, Forbidden Kingdom bottomed out the field to win:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    As the 3rd choice, this Richard Mandella trainee surprised the top 2 Baffert trained horses.



    Larry
    DevilHorse
    BTW, Forbidden Kingdom is a myracehorse.com stable horse. There was a big cheer that came up at Santa Anita as this horse came down the lane in the San Vicente for 3YOs. This horse has (approximately) 1020 owners. A number of them may have been at Santa Anita. Or perhaps the crowd was rooting against Bob Baffert who trained the 2nd and 3rd place finishers in the 5 horse race. But we will be paying some attention to some of the myracehorse.com horses this year.

    Obviously Authentic did well for those owners!

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  17. #37
    Always on the look-out for fast rising horses that might hop on the KYD trail.

    Today (in 1 hour), at Tampa Bay Downs, in the 6th race in an Optional Claimer is Emmanuel:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...7/summary.html
    [ URL above, Sunday January 30, 2022, Tampa Bay Downs - Race 6 , PPs ]
    In his only start, this Pletcher trainee won for fun by 6 lengths.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  18. #38
    Quote Originally Posted by DevilHorse View Post
    Always on the look-out for fast rising horses that might hop on the KYD trail.

    Today (in 1 hour), at Tampa Bay Downs, in the 6th race in an Optional Claimer is Emmanuel:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...7/summary.html
    [ URL above, Sunday January 30, 2022, Tampa Bay Downs - Race 6 , PPs ]
    In his only start, this Pletcher trainee won for fun by 6 lengths.

    Larry
    DevilHorse
    Emmanuel had an easy time of it:
    http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
    The horse will probably show up on the KYD trail at Tampa or Gulfstream Park.

    It looks like Life Is Good will be headed to the Dubai World Cup next, avoiding Flightline who is pointing toward the San Carlos in early March. Perhaps they will meet up in the Whitney at Saratoga. The suspense will just build for these 2 if they continue to mow down their competition.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

  19. #39
    Join Date
    Sep 2010
    Location
    Franklin TN
    Quote Originally Posted by DevilHorse View Post
    BTW, Forbidden Kingdom is a myracehorse.com stable horse. There was a big cheer that came up at Santa Anita as this horse came down the lane in the San Vicente for 3YOs. This horse has (approximately) 1020 owners. A number of them may have been at Santa Anita. Or perhaps the crowd was rooting against Bob Baffert who trained the 2nd and 3rd place finishers in the 5 horse race. But we will be paying some attention to some of the myracehorse.com horses this year.

    Obviously Authentic did well for those owners!

    Larry
    DevilHorse
    I believe Baffert used to train for myracehorse.com. He lost that gig. Didnít he also train Life Is Good? Iím sure the owners are quite pleased with Todd Pletcher. Life Is Good looked great. I hope the long trip to the Middle East doesnít screw him up.

    I also saw the UAE has cut a deal with Wynn for a casino. Sounds like they may be gambling on the ponies over there in the future.

  20. #40
    Quote Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMeDoIt View Post
    I believe Baffert used to train for myracehorse.com. He lost that gig. Didn’t he also train Life Is Good? I’m sure the owners are quite pleased with Todd Pletcher. Life Is Good looked great. I hope the long trip to the Middle East doesn’t screw him up.

    I also saw the UAE has cut a deal with Wynn for a casino. Sounds like they may be gambling on the ponies over there in the future.
    Since Authentic was trained by Baffert, then he was a myRaceHorse.com guy.

    Yes, Life Is Good was trained by Baffert, until he was injured. Bob Baffert could hardly have improved on what Todd Pletcher has done. Folks in the east are very happy to see this colt racing against tougher competition instead of the virtual walk overs he would be doing right now at Santa Anita if left to Baffert's charge.

    Dubai is an Emirite, so they do plenty of gambling on the Ponies in the UAE (i.e., Life Is Good will race in the UAE at the Dubai World Cup if all goes well). It is one armed bandits (literally and figuratively), and table games, casino stuff, that are more likely to be brought to the UAE with the Wynn deal.

    Larry
    DevilHorse

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