Horse Racing 2022

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Apropos of nothing, I watched Seabiscuit this weekend and found it surprisingly enjoyable.

Yes, I'm a late adopter.

[TheDevilMadeMeDoIt]

You'll have to share your impressions of Colonial Downs with us if you get there.

I'm not sure I'm happy about conglomerates like Churchill Downs buying up other tracks. If CD (ever) goes down, it would take a lot of other tracks with it.

Larry
DevilHorse

I didn’t realize Churchill had purchased Colonial Downs. Having never been there I am not sure where it is located. My issue with Churchill is when the land becomes more valuable than a race track it will close the track and sell the land. (see Arlington Park) I remember decades ago when racing was trying to expand. Lynn Stone, who I believe was president of Churchill, left to open an expensive track near Birmingham, Alabama. It only took a few years before it closed. The timing was terrible as horse racing was in a steep decline. Then years later Colonial Downs opened. It too failed. I believe, and please correct me if I am wrong, some type of slots, maybe historical horse racing machines, became legal in Virginia and voilà Colonial reopened. Some of Colonial’s horses end up in the fall at the Kentucky tracks. I know some of the turf horses were at Kentucky Downs last September.

It seems that horse racing has found a niche today. Simulcasting and slots are supporting larger purses. Attendance is still a problem at most tracks. Keeneland is an exception as is Saratoga. As an old guy I still love to see them run in person. Unfortunately the closest track to Nashville is Ellis Park or Churchill which are still two plus hours away, excluding Ky Downs which is less than an hour but only has a 7 to 9 day meet.

Ellis Park is an interesting place. The last time I went years ago the grandstand was literally falling in. It was probably built 80 years ago and has had minimal upkeep. They have a newer air conditioned dining/betting area, still probably 30 years old and built cheap. What I have noticed is good trainers are routinely taking their young horses there. Guys like Brad Cox, Michael Maker etc. Churchill owned it a while but bailed. A few miles away is a real casino in Evansville. It barely survived that twenty plus years ago. New owners came in right before Covid, with big plans. I doubt they have done anything. But slot machines are keeping it open and improving purse money. They literally grow soy beans in the infield. But it is a relatively easy drive to Louisville so they have a good source for race horses, trainers and jockeys.

Like most states Kentucky has a really good thoroughbred development fund. It routinely adds plus $30k to maiden, allowance and stakes races. Unlike other states, the races are not restricted to state breds, BUT only Ky. breds are eligible for the extra money. The base money is still about the same as say California, so the better non Ky breds still routinely race in Kentucky. For obvious reasons, relatively poor state, etc. Kentucky is probably the most supportive state in the country for horse breeding. Whiskey and horses were important enough that even the Baptist couldn’t fight those industries and win in Kentucky. (My apologies to any Baptist who read this.)

Back to the original point, we will see if Churchill is a good steward of Colonial Downs. Its track record is spotty. Just another big corporation that only cares about one thing, its bottom line.

[accfanfrom1970]

Colonial Downs is near me in VA. It is off Rt.64 so easy to get to, but in nowhere land. Nothing around it. Right now they only have races during the week, which is odd. It is anchored by “Rosie’s” a slot machine place.

Wonder what Churchill Downs will change, improve, bring to the table?

[DevilHorse]

At Santa Anita, in the Affirmed Stakes, Hopper won, Newgrange was scratched:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on

Larry
DevilHorse

Newgrange put in a workout of 47 2/5 on the same day of this race, so he is apparently fine and his connections must have bigger fish to fry in the near future (or they are chicken!!) [How far can I go with the food metaphors?].

Larry
DevilHorse

[DevilHorse]

Colonial Downs is near me in VA. It is off Rt.64 so easy to get to, but in nowhere land. Nothing around it. Right now they only have races during the week, which is odd. It is anchored by “Rosie’s” a slot machine place.

Wonder what Churchill Downs will change, improve, bring to the table?

Colonial Downs did run a couple of Harness Racing meets a few years ago, but they stopped that. I wonder if they will go back. They have the horses down there, and the track is lightning quick. But changing out the track (if they use the main track) is a bother and I imagine expensive.

There are a few places (i.e., Woodbine, The Meadowlands) that went to a 2 racing strip model where they had separate tracks for each breed. Woodbine actually ran TBreds and SBreds at the same time (different races at the same meet.. not at the same moment); the racing strips were concentric ovals. The Meadowlands gave up removing the harder dirt surface from January to August with the softer September to November TBred loam for an all Grass meet to go with their Standardbred (permanent) 1 mile oval. Although they will rarely run a novelty grass SBred race. They also rarely run an SBred Monte race with trotters that have drivers/jockey on horseback. Julie Krone rode the great Standardbred Trotter Moni Maker to a world record while sitting on her back at the Red Mile in Kentucky.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dbn8RNrk9wU

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=egIK-nA8DvE

But I digressssss...

Larry
DevilHorse

[DevilHorse]

Just a quickee..

A couple of mildly interesting races this weekend:

At Monmouth, little respect for a great horse in the Salvatore Mile:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
[ URL above, Saturday June 18, 2022, Monmouth Park - Race 14, PPs ]
Welcome back Hot Rod Charlie from the Middle East. Why he isn't given more respect in the Morning Line I'll never know. Reports from his camp is that he's training well, and hasn't skipped a beat. He's in against minor people.

An early race for west coast 2YOs, at Santa Anita, the Fasig-Tipton Futurity:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...99/summary.htm
[ URL above, Saturday June 18, 2022, Santa Anita Park - Race 11, PPs ]
Everyone looks good in these early 2YO stakes races, and why not.

BTW, guess who might be at the Haskell at Monmouth? No, I'm not talking horses.. I'm talking Bob Baffert. His 3 month suspension for the drugging of Medina Spirit will be up in early July, so the mid-July Haskell will be in-play. Some of his horses might re-appear in his barn. Baffert loves the hot dogs at the Jersey Shore.

Celebrity harness races at The Meadowlands tonight. Local reporters, and maybe a politician or two, get to race against each other in 2 different races; 4 each. I think our NJ governor (not Chris Christie) was in the bike once (Christie Todd Whitman was a very good horsewoman) I remember being in the paddock when they had one of these; the participants really enjoyed it. Tough to get those (swelled) heads in the helmets. They use jog carts (long leads) not the race bikes, so they are nowhere near the horses during the race. The horses can't kick them. A race bike is a very different experience; the horse can kick you and you can kick the horse (neither is advised).

Larry
DevilHorse

[DevilHorse]

I just found out that the all black horse, Sergeant York, has retired at the age of 31. Sergeant York was a pacer by the name of All About Jules that raced at the Freehold Raceway, and nearby tracks, in the 1990s. On his retirement, he joined the U.S. Army and has performed thousands of services to honor fallen member of the armed forces and state, including to be the riderless horse, with backwards boots in the stirrups, in Ronald Reagan's burial procession:
sgtYorkAllAboutJules.jpg
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sergeant_York_(horse)

Sergeant York is in great shape and will be living out his retirement in upstate New York.

Larry
DevilHorse

[DevilHorse]

Just a quickee..

A couple of mildly interesting races this weekend:

At Monmouth, little respect for a great horse in the Salvatore Mile:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
[ URL above, Saturday June 18, 2022, Monmouth Park - Race 14, PPs ]
Welcome back Hot Rod Charlie from the Middle East. Why he isn't given more respect in the Morning Line I'll never know. Reports from his camp is that he's training well, and hasn't skipped a beat. He's in against minor people.

An early race for west coast 2YOs, at Santa Anita, the Fasig-Tipton Futurity:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...99/summary.htm
[ URL above, Saturday June 18, 2022, Santa Anita Park - Race 11, PPs ]
Everyone looks good in these early 2YO stakes races, and why not.

BTW, guess who might be at the Haskell at Monmouth? No, I'm not talking horses.. I'm talking Bob Baffert. His 3 month suspension for the drugging of Medina Spirit will be up in early July, so the mid-July Haskell will be in-play. Some of his horses might re-appear in his barn. Baffert loves the hot dogs at the Jersey Shore.

Celebrity harness races at The Meadowlands tonight. Local reporters, and maybe a politician or two, get to race against each other in 2 different races; 4 each. I think our NJ governor (not Chris Christie) was in the bike once (Christie Todd Whitman was a very good horsewoman) I remember being in the paddock when they had one of these; the participants really enjoyed it. Tough to get those (swelled) heads in the helmets. They use jog carts (long leads) not the race bikes, so they are nowhere near the horses during the race. The horses can't kick them. A race bike is a verhttps://twitter.com/i/status/1538287408591949824y different experience; the horse can kick you and you can kick the horse (neither is advised).

Larry
DevilHorse

A fit and determined Mind Control beat Hot Rod Charlie in a spirited stretch duel in the Salvatore Mile:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
https://twitter.com/i/status/1538287408591949824
Both colts were awarded a 104 Beyer.

The Fasig-Tipton Futurity was won by a filly, Absolutely Zero:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
Pop D'oro was in the field and did not win (they don't all win) but this horse has talent; he raced awful trip, green as grass, had a bad start, didn't switch leads. I'd bet this guy next time out. He'll be good with a few lessons.

If you're keeping score, yet another Bolt D'oro 2YO named Major Dude won impressively at Monmouth yesterday:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
https://twitter.com/i/status/1538241733879734273
First timer threaded between horses to win. More BD's to come!!! And more are coming with 145 2YOs in the crop. Take heed. They fall flat on their face when they hit 6f, but at 5f, they are Secretariat.

Larry
DevilHorse

[DevilHorse]

The Bolt D'oro parade marches on..

Yet another firster shows a great kick in stretch:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
https://twitter.com/i/status/1538573543700516864
Bolts N Rainbows (#4) takes the 2nd race at Churchill Downs on Sunday with a big late kick.
Bolt D'Oro has 6 of 12 winners and is the leading 2YO sire thus far with $333K, and it is very early.

Larry
DevilHorse

[DevilHorse]

This weekend there are a few interesting races:

The top 3YOC race will be found at Thistledown for the Ohio Derby:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
[ URL above, Saturday, June 25, 2022 - Thistledown - Race 11, PPs ]
This race features 3 KYD refugees, Classic Causeway, Tawny Port, and White Abarrio. Also are KYD trail veterans Ethereal Road and Barese.
Barese, White Abarrio, and Tawny Port look to be advantaged by using Lasix, either by history or first time usage (prohibited on the KYD trail).
White Abarrio's KYD performance was enigmatic; either he bled or had a really bad (wide) trip. I look to him to bounce back with a better effort. Classic Causeway has now thrown in 2 clunkers in a row; he'll have to show something. Tawny Port looks poised with the best last performance. Barese is out of that excellent key race, the Wood Memorial. I'll predict White Abarrio, Tawny Port, Barese.

The also offered at Thistledown, for older mares, is the Lady Jaqueline:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
[ URL above, Saturday, June 25, 2022 - Thistledown - Race 10, PPs ]
Crazy Beautiful and Army Wife are the headliners.

In the 3YO Filly division, the second jewel of the triple tiara is being run at Belmont; the Mother Goose is being run.
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
[ URL above, Saturday, June 25, 2022 - Belmont Park - Race 8, PPs ]
This would seem to be an interesting race. Juju's Map was well thought of last year after finishing 2nd in the BC Juvenile Filly. She had a winning tune-up in an Optional Claimer. There are 2 fillies that had excuses in top stakes races; Venti Valentine was checked in the KY Oaks and Midnight Stroll was checked in the Black Eyed Susan. Shahama had a decent race in the Kentucky Oaks. I think Juju's Map takes it.

Bad news for Bolt D'Oro and his fans. He will have a son lose today in the 5th race at CD.
That's because he has 2 running in the same race (dead heats are not likely).
If you like tracking ALL of the Bolt D'Oro youngsters, you're in luck. I found a page for that:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...5/summary.html
Click on any of the PPs and you can read the statistics for the sire. He is up to 50% wins for starters; impressive. Now, let's see what they can do when the races get past 5.5f.

Larry
DevilHorse

[DevilHorse]

This weekend there are a few interesting races:



Bad news for Bolt D'Oro and his fans. He will have a son lose today in the 5th race at CD.
That's because he has 2 running in the same race (dead heats are not likely).
If you like tracking ALL of the Bolt D'Oro youngsters, you're in luck. I found a page for that:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...5/summary.html
Click on any of the PPs and you can read the statistics for the sire. He is up to 50% wins for starters; impressive. Now, let's see what they can do when the races get past 5.5f.

Larry
DevilHorse

Arman wins takes the fifth (at CD):
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
https://twitter.com/i/status/1540109380288258049
Yes, he is one of the Bolt D'Oro's. He was the favorite, and obviously the better bet of the half siblings.

Larry
DevilHorse

[DevilHorse]

This weekend there are a few interesting races:

The top 3YOC race will be found at Thistledown for the Ohio Derby:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
[ URL above, Saturday, June 25, 2022 - Thistledown - Race 11, PPs ]
This race features 3 KYD refugees, Classic Causeway, Tawny Port, and White Abarrio. Also are KYD trail veterans Ethereal Road and Barese.
Barese, White Abarrio, and Tawny Port look to be advantaged by using Lasix, either by history or first time usage (prohibited on the KYD trail).
White Abarrio's KYD performance was enigmatic; either he bled or had a really bad (wide) trip. I look to him to bounce back with a better effort. Classic Causeway has now thrown in 2 clunkers in a row; he'll have to show something. Tawny Port looks poised with the best last performance. Barese is out of that excellent key race, the Wood Memorial. I'll predict White Abarrio, Tawny Port, Barese.

The also offered at Thistledown, for older mares, is the Lady Jaqueline:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
[ URL above, Saturday, June 25, 2022 - Thistledown - Race 10, PPs ]
Crazy Beautiful and Army Wife are the headliners.

In the 3YO Filly division, the second jewel of the triple tiara is being run at Belmont; the Mother Goose is being run.
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
[ URL above, Saturday, June 25, 2022 - Belmont Park - Race 8, PPs ]
This would seem to be an interesting race. Juju's Map was well thought of last year after finishing 2nd in the BC Juvenile Filly. She had a winning tune-up in an Optional Claimer. There are 2 fillies that had excuses in top stakes races; Venti Valentine was checked in the KY Oaks and Midnight Stroll was checked in the Black Eyed Susan. Shahama had a decent race in the Kentucky Oaks. I think Juju's Map takes it.


Larry
DevilHorse

In the Ohio Derby, Tawny Port swung wide and won:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
https://twitter.com/i/status/1540815200173031426
White Abarrio finished second. Looks like Lasix was working.

Army Wife beat Crazy Beautiful in the Lady Jaqueline:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on

In the Mother Goose, Gerrymander won:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
https://twitter.com/i/status/1540802229866827777
Even with a small field, the early pace, or lack of conditioning, ate up Juju's Map.

Larry
DevilHorse

[DevilHorse]

Anyone out there interested in a standardbred performance?

Perhaps if it is more like a TBred speed?

TBreds have been around for about 300 years (that's around the time of the Godolphin Arabian). The Standardbreds have been around for a much shorter time, maybe 130-150 years, but they are a mix of TBreds, Morgans, saddlebreds, and sally the mare from the other end of the county. But where the TBreds have not been evolving in speed, the Standardbreds continue to get faster at a measureable rate.

When I was younger the fastest mile was 1:52.0, set by Steady Star in 1971. But a wonderful horse named Niatross blew that mark out of the water and broke the 1:50 barrier with a 1:49.1 race at The Red Mile. That mark continued to be lowered and is 1:46.1 now. These Standardbreds are pacers, not trotters who are about 3 seconds slower. In these races, the quarters are almost always 26.x and any standardbred that touches a 25.4 or 25.3 in a race is a wonderhorse; that is moving for a standardbred!!

Individual quarters are usually faster at the beginning or end of the mile, but the fastest quarters seem to be at the beginning by horses that don't survive to win the mile.

TBreds tend to run a mile race in a 1:34.x rate for good horses and 1:32.x for the top horses, so they are much faster as you might expect, and the quarter mile rates are about 24.x seconds in these races.

So, last night was the Graduate Series for the top pacers in North America, and one division was won by a wonderful 4YO named Bulldog Hanover in 1:47.0, only 4 ticks off of the world record, but that's not too surprising for this improving colt. The wow factor was the last quarter in 24.4 ! That is TBred speed dragging a race bike, with straps (hobbles) on his legs. When I saw the splits I had to do the math several times. That was a Wow.

Standardbreds are not going to be challenging the TBreds anytime soon at a mile, but that was quite the effort, and he seemed to do it easily and won by 2 lengths.

Larry
DevilHorse

[DevilHorse]

During the Derby Trail of 2021 (remember Mandaloun and Midnight Bourbon?) there was a promising colt named Senor Buscador. He won a minor stakes race called the Springboard Mile in an eye popping fashion, coming from a dozen lengths back to win by almost 6 lengths at the wire. '
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BiNqz10uiZk
Watch #1 make the 6 wide sweep on the far turn.

This son of Mineshaft was made the second choice in the 2021 Risen Star, where he finished 5th. I thought he was going to be a good one, in the fashion of Rombauer. In that race he sustained a minor ligament injury.

Fast forward a year (4 months ago) and the Senor got an infected hock due to a stall injury; so more R&R. Now finally as a 4YO he is ready to have his 4th start in a minor Allowance race at Lone Star Park this coming Sunday July 3rd:

http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...8/summary.html
[ URL above, Sunday July 3, 2022, Lone Star Park - Race 8, PPs]

Senor Buscador out-classes every horse in this field, but is he healthy? He fits this allowance class of course. They just want to test the leg to see if they can move on to better things. He is back on Lasix.

Best of luck to this hard luck colt and his connections.

Larry
DevilHorse

[DevilHorse]

Bob Baffert will be returning to training this weekend July 2nd. That will be when the first of his 3 suspensions ends (the 3 month Kentucky Derby suspension) ends and he will be allowed to start training and entering horses for races. The first entry of a horse could be later this month, perhaps at Del Mar or at Monmouth Park in the Haskell on July 23. Of course, it is assumed that those horses that Baffert was training previously will return to his barn.

Speaking of the Haskell, I read somewhere that there is a $1M bonus to any horse that wins the Haskell, the Travers, and the BC Classic. If you win those 3 races, you probably are not thinking about the $1M anyway. I don't think Baffert could run his horses in NY yet for the Travers but he will be able to run them in the BC at Keeneland, just not in the next Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs in 2023 (an hour down the road).

Flightline is back in training for the Pacific Classic in early September. They sure do take their time with him. I wonder how he'd do if he was in shape for a race?

Larry
DevilHorse

[DevilHorse]

There are a few good races on Saturday, although there may be some weather impact:

The race that caught my eye is the John Nerud:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
[ URL above, Saturday July 2, 2022 - Belmont Park - Race 4, PPs]
The race marks the reappearance of Life Is Good. Who knows what happened to him in Dubai, but he is one of the top talents of the past few years on the race track scene. He is up against Speaker's Corner, who was last seen being flattened by Flightline in the Met Mile. This race is at 7f.
Glad to see a race named after John Nerud; he being the trainer of, amongst others, SheDr. Fager.
Speaker's Corner might be worth the price over a Life Is Good who might need the race.


Drain The Clock makes an appearance in the Smile Sprint:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
[ URL above, Saturday July 2, 2022 - Gulfstream Park - Race 7, PPs]
Haven't seen him around, but he is the class of the field.

Shedaresthedevil tries to beat Paulines Pearl again in the Feur de Lis:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
[ URL above, Saturday July 2, 2022 - Churchill Downs - Race 8, PPs]

The Stephen Foster will be run soon after:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
[ URL above, Saturday July 2, 2022 - Churchill Downs - Race 10, PPs]
Olympiad will be taking on Americanrevolution and Caddo River. Olympiad has been on a tear against better horses.

Charge It had some big backers leading into the KYD. He will be in the Dwyer at Belmont:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
[ URL above, Saturday July 2, 2022 - Belmont Park - Race 8, PPs]

Larry
DevilHorse

[DevilHorse]

Is it Fun Friday already?

Not sure if this goes in the Horse Forum or the UFOs?
remiBelloq1.jpg

This picture is by Remi Bellocq, son of Pierre Bellocq, known to any racegoer as PEB whose drawing used to grace the cover of the Daily Racing Form each day. PEB's drawings were always 'the BEST'. PEB will be going into the Thoroughbred Racing Hall of Fame this summer!

Remi draws a picture, in the spirit of PEB, every friday in the Thoroughbred Daily News, which is available online free.
https://www.thoroughbreddailynews.com/

BTW, what do you suppose the Venn Diagram of the Horse Forum and the UFO Forum is? Can't just be me!!! Anyone else want to raise their hoof?

Larry
DevilHorse

[TheDevilMadeMeDoIt]

There are a few good races on Saturday, although there may be some weather impact:

The race that caught my eye is the John Nerud:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
[ URL above, Saturday July 2, 2022 - Belmont Park - Race 4, PPs]
The race marks the reappearance of Life Is Good. Who knows what happened to him in Dubai, but he is one of the top talents of the past few years on the race track scene. He is up against Speaker's Corner, who was last seen being flattened by Flightline in the Met Mile. This race is at 7f.
Glad to see a race named after John Nerud; he being the trainer of, amongst others, SheDr. Fager.
Speaker's Corner might be worth the price over a Life Is Good who might need the race.


Drain The Clock makes an appearance in the Smile Sprint:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
[ URL above, Saturday July 2, 2022 - Gulfstream Park - Race 7, PPs]
Haven't seen him around, but he is the class of the field.

Shedaresthedevil tries to beat Paulines Pearl again in the Feur de Lis:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
[ URL above, Saturday July 2, 2022 - Churchill Downs - Race 8, PPs]

The Stephen Foster will be run soon after:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
[ URL above, Saturday July 2, 2022 - Churchill Downs - Race 10, PPs]
Olympiad will be taking on Americanrevolution and Caddo River. Olympiad has been on a tear against better horses.

Charge It had some big backers leading into the KYD. He will be in the Dwyer at Belmont:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
[ URL above, Saturday July 2, 2022 - Belmont Park - Race 8, PPs]

Larry
DevilHorse

A little surprised you didn’t mention Mandaloun in the Stephen Foster. Admittedly his last race in the mid east was awful, but he runs well off a long layoff and he ran well against some of the best three three year old colts spring of 2021. His races against Midnight Bourbon and Hot Rod Charlie were impossible to handicap as you never knew which horse felt best in those big races in New Orleans. I can’t argue with Olympiad though, clearly running really well right now. This race looks to be competitive to me. One could even throw Proxy into the mix. He didn’t win against Mandaloun or Midnight Bourbon but he finished ahead of each of them at least once in those 2021 races in New Orleans. Maybe I am over complicating things and you are right to go with the hot horse of this late spring/summer, Olympiad.

[DevilHorse]

A little surprised you didn’t mention Mandaloun in the Stephen Foster. Admittedly his last race in the mid east was awful, but he runs well off a long layoff and he ran well against some of the best three three year old colts spring of 2021. His races against Midnight Bourbon and Hot Rod Charlie were impossible to handicap as you never knew which horse felt best in those big races in New Orleans. I can’t argue with Olympiad though, clearly running really well right now. This race looks to be competitive to me. One could even throw Proxy into the mix. He didn’t win against Mandaloun or Midnight Bourbon but he finished ahead of each of them at least once in those 2021 races in New Orleans. Maybe I am over complicating things and you are right to go with the hot horse of this late spring/summer, Olympiad.

Yes, I should have mentioned Mandaloun, who has only run 3 races in the past year. I did have him on my personal list of horses to watch (wow, 4 horses to watch out of 7? Why single out any of them?). I wish I had a horse that rakes in $340k in 2 starts, but I digress. Having horses that are kept in shape, but not by racing, is a new phenomenon that handicappers have to deal with. Flightline is a great example; how good would he be if he was raced when he was tight? His second race of the year is planned for September 3rd??? This will be Mandaloun's 11th race. In the Standardbred world, we wouldn't consider this an experienced horse yet.

BTW, for those Bolt D'Oro fans (am I the only one), he had his 8th winner yesterday at Canterbury Downs. It's Bobs Business won by a respectable 11 lengths in a 4.5 furlong race:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
Who did he beat? Time will tell if they are dreck or top of the deck, but how far back can you be in a 4.5 furlong race?

Larry
DevilHorse

[DevilHorse]

This entry is for folks interested in betting (some of you may only be interested in picking horses without making a financial commitment).

Have you been fascinated by analytics in baseball or other sports. Enjoy the concept behind the movie Moneyball. Does the word Sabermetrics ring a bell?

I was reading a recent Blood Horse magazine and came upon an article about just such a thing for Horse Racing. It is focused on the Jockeys. It is one statistic called SARJ (Speed Above Replacement Jockey); the idea being that if you take a jockey and put him on a horse, how many lengths would a horse improve over an average jockey. Not unlike the WAR (Wins Above Replacement (Player)) sabermetric statistic in baseball.

Rather than recite the results, I have a link to the (pdf) article:

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=...QFAMmozhQRRJDK

I hope the link/url works, it works for me. If not, put in “SARJ figures horse” in google.
Select the link listed as, “'Speed Above Replacement Jockey' Metric Can Uncover ..."

It suggests jockeys that are worth more than they appear to be based on money won, etc.. Moneyball or MoneyHorse?

Larry
DevilHorse