Horse Racing 2022

[DevilHorse]

I boxed 3, 6, 10, 12 ,15 in a super (Epi, Messier, Zandon, Taiba and White Abarrio) as my dream ticket.
I tri-boxed Epi, Zandon, Taiba, Wh Abarrio.

Then to hedge I bet on W/P/S six other horses I think can contend. Not sure if this is an effective or smart way to bet, but I do this occasionally. I really don't like betting on big field races, but...

Too much bumping and getting stuck in a bad position. Prefer 5-7 horse fields (hence I feel the Belmont is easier to handicap with about 10). If a horse closes hard tomorrow and skips the Preakness, I'll double-down on that horse in the Belmont as it's the longest of the three, plus he'll be rested, somewhat.

I may may another wager or two tomorrow, but I have some cash on the line. Last year at the Derby I had six horses boxed for the super and 5 finished in the top 6, but I missed on one.

Question, with 20 horses why couldn't I do a .10 superbox or even a .50 superbox? Is that governed by the racetrack? It severely limited some of the bets I wanted to place.

Thanks for all the input in this thread and good luck!!!

With all of the horses, and combinations, if you hit anything in the KYD, you will get a nice payoff. And, there is no such thing as a bridgejumper in this race (unless Elon Musk gets involved of course ).

Wager types are determined by the state. Tracks have the option of offering the bets or not, but the locus to choose from comes from the state. There are limitations based on what the machines at the track can handle and how people are trained of course. A 0.10 IS a 0.50 Superbox if the 0.10 is offered; just for 5 times as much. But the inverse is not true.

I found this page:
https://www.kentuckyderby.com/wager/.../types-of-bets
It suggests that the 0.10 Superfecta bet appears to be available. They do not mention a Box, but that would be shortsighted.

No mention for on-track vs. off-track distinctions. Depending on what service you use to bet (I assume you will not be at Churchill Downs today) there might be limitations or enhancements.

The KYD is an insane race; best of luck to you all.

Larry
DevilHorse

[DevilHorse]

Here are the PPs of interest for Friday:

Race 6 is the La Troienne:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
[ URL above, May 6, 2022, Churchill Downs - Race 6, PPs]
On a dry track, it looks like Shedaresthedevil over Paulines Peril. The latter shows one good start over the slop, but likely she overmatched her competitors anyway. Temper Time and Jilted Bride seem to step up on an off track. Pedigrees are no help here.
BTW, who was La Troienne? She was the bluest of blue hen mares.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/La_Troienne
You can find her in the pedigrees of many Thoroughbreds including as the 9th broodmare of Essential Quality.

Race 7 is the Alysheba:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
[ URL above, May 6, 2022, Churchill Downs - Race 7, PPs]
Olympiad is one of the hottest handicap horses in the county, and has never run on the slop; but he is a grandson of super slop sire Gone West, so expect him to get along in the mud swimmingly. Also of interest is Max Player who occasionally throws in a superior race, and won the Suburban on a sloppy track. Then there is Happy Saver, trained by Todd Pletcher. A very dangerous horse by Super slop sire Super Saver. Remember Super Saver won on this track in one of the wettest KYD's in history.

Race 9 is the 8Belles:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
[ URL above, May 6, 2022, Churchill Downs - Race 9, PPs]
On the surface, Matareya and Marissa's Lady are your favorites. Pretty Birdie has one of the few notable mud lines; she apparently forgot her umbrella and hates it. On pedigree, Sweet As Pie has Smart Strike as a broodmare sire. Smart Strike is a superior mudder producer; might consider her.

Race 11 is the Kentucky Oaks:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
[ URL above, May 6, 2022, Churchill Downs - Race 11, PPs]
Echo Zulu is your undefeated 2YO champion; but she only won by a nose in her comeback win this year. That was her only start. Why did she come back so late? She was obviously short? Can she make up for the lack of conditioning (and did she move forward off that race? Probably but by how much?).
Nest only had one loss, in November. But has been perfect and impressive since then. Likely to be a co-favorite, and likely in better shape, but is she a better talent?
Secret Oath looked like a brute, until she extended to 1 1/8 miles (the length of this race) and met the boys. She seemed to flatten out at the end of the mile.
Kathleen O, the undefeated upstart by Upstart ('u's are free). She runs from off the pace and made a big move in the mud to break her maiden.
Nostalgic came from off the pace to nip a tiring, but fast Venti Valentine in the Gazelle; they could be there since they probably trained in the worst conditions of all of these.
If I was picking a Triple, it would be Kathleen O, Echo Zulu, Nest.
Unless someone gets loose on the lead, this should be a fantastic race.

Larry
DevilHorse

Radar has already been clear since 6am at Churchill Downs, and minimal rain hit the track yesterday before sealing. I think it will be a fast track today. Thank goodness. We return you to your scheduled programming.

Great day of racing yesterday.

In the La Troienne, Pauline's Pearl ran down a determined Shedaresthedevil:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
https://twitter.com/i/status/1522630112256045056
Pauline's Pearl was awarded a 94 Beyer.

In the Alysheba, Olympiad exploded down the stretch to win:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
https://twitter.com/i/status/1522642202869919744
Olympiad was awarded the high Beyer of the day, 103.

In the Eight Belles, Matareya made quick work of Pretty Birdie:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
https://twitter.com/i/status/1522670273014554624
Matareya was awarded a 93 Beyer.

In the Kentucky Oaks, Secret Oath fulfilled her promise with a big move on the far turn:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
https://twitter.com/i/status/1522702166993035266
There was NO question on who was the best filly today, and she was awarded a 94 Beyer for her effort. But it seemed like a massive effort. Going 4 wide around the last turn to circle the field and take the lead at the head of the stretch. Tremendous. Echo Zulu finished 3rd, and did much of the heavy lifting for the race; you can't help but think that with a bit more seasoning her fate might have been different. Kudos to D. Wayne Lukas who showed that he was still relevant and justified his attempt to run this filly in the Arkansas Derby. Lukas was congratulated by a phalanx of top trainers as he made his way to the winners circle as he was a groundbreaker for many of them, if not directly indirectly by showing how a modern big stable could operate. Lukas introduced his family and his grand-daughters, but my thoughts immediately turned to the missing Lukas, Jeff Lukas, who died because of injuries suffered because of his run in with Tabasco Cat. That was long ago, but this ancient mariner of the sport keeps on ticking. I've run into D. Wayne Lukas briefly a couple of times and he was always gracious. Good win for the sport. Looking forward to see what this filly does in the future.

Larry
DevilHorse

[TheDevilMadeMeDoIt]

Radar has already been clear since 6am at Churchill Downs, and minimal rain hit the track yesterday before sealing. I think it will be a fast track today. Thank goodness. We return you to your scheduled programming.

Great day of racing yesterday.

In the La Troienne, Pauline's Pearl ran down a determined Shedaresthedevil:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
https://twitter.com/i/status/1522630112256045056
Pauline's Pearl was awarded a 94 Beyer.

In the Alysheba, Olympiad exploded down the stretch to win:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
https://twitter.com/i/status/1522642202869919744
Olympiad was awarded the high Beyer of the day, 103.

In the Eight Belles, Matareya made quick work of Pretty Birdie:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
https://twitter.com/i/status/1522670273014554624
Matareya was awarded a 93 Beyer.

In the Kentucky Oaks, Secret Oath fulfilled her promise with a big move on the far turn:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
https://twitter.com/i/status/1522702166993035266
There was NO question on who was the best filly today, and she was awarded a 94 Beyer for her effort. But it seemed like a massive effort. Going 4 wide around the last turn to circle the field and take the lead at the head of the stretch. Tremendous. Echo Zulu finished 3rd, and did much of the heavy lifting for the race; you can't help but think that with a bit more seasoning her fate might have been different. Kudos to D. Wayne Lukas who showed that he was still relevant and justified his attempt to run this filly in the Arkansas Derby. Lukas was congratulated by a phalanx of top trainers as he made his way to the winners circle as he was a groundbreaker for many of them, if not directly indirectly by showing how a modern big stable could operate. Lukas introduced his family and his grand-daughters, but my thoughts immediately turned to the missing Lukas, Jeff Lukas, who died because of injuries suffered because of his run in with Tabasco Cat. That was long ago, but this ancient mariner of the sport keeps on ticking. I've run into D. Wayne Lukas briefly a couple of times and he was always gracious. Good win for the sport. Looking forward to see what this filly does in the future.

Larry
DevilHorse

She ran so well I am now taking a second look at Cyberknife. I had tossed him as the experts were not liking the Arkansas Derby. Word is that Cox is confident. Now I may include in the trifecta. I still like Epicenter because he can be placed forwardly. Andy Beyer as you mentioned likes White Abarrio. Baffert’s not there to juice the Californians, so I pass, which means they probably run 1,2. If you can get it right, some great payouts await.

[DevilHorse]

She ran so well I am now taking a second look at Cyberknife. I had tossed him as the experts were not liking the Arkansas Derby. Word is that Cox is confident. Now I may include in the trifecta. I still like Epicenter because he can be placed forwardly. Andy Beyer as you mentioned likes White Abarrio. Baffert’s not there to juice the Californians, so I pass, which means they probably run 1,2. If you can get it right, some great payouts await.

Beyer also discounted the high "Beyer figures" from the California entries because all of the horses from the Santa Anita Derby had huge numbers. He felt that the numbers calculated from that day were an aberration. The way they calculate the Beyers, as I understand it, is by comparing what known commodities (i.e., claimers of a certain level.. that always run (assumption) true to form at various distances) and then sliding the scale based on that anchor. Well, what happens on a big stakes day when there are no low priced claimers or the claimers run above their pay grade? (or track conditions are tremendous). You get outrageous numbers.

Good point about Cyberknife.

BTW, the track is labeled Good after the first 2 races. There is definitely track length puddles still on the track. I haven't heard if they are off the turf of not; if they aren't, that is more time to work on the track. If the sun comes out soon, conditions will improve more quickly.

Larry
DevilHorse

[OldPhiKap]

Yeah . . . I saw that coming.

{Not}.

Jeebus.

[DevilHorse]

I saw the hot pace, but I was wondering where the other come from behind horses were (the more accomplished ones anyway). Simplification finished 5th I think. White Abarrio was way back. The horses on the front just got fried. Rich Strike just had something left in the tank. 2:02 is probably pretty good for the racetrack.

I remembered about Keen Ice beating American Pharoah in the Travers (before they mentioned it). But American Pharoah won the Haskell after the Belmont and then on to the Travers. AP beat Keen Ice by 7 at the Haskell before being beaten by Keen Ice in the Travers. I don't believe Keen Ice raced in all Triple Crown events.

I don't think there will be a Triple Crown winner this year. The pace made the race in the KYD. That won't happen in the Preakness.

BTW, my TVG app and online access died about 2 hours before the KYD so I couldn't get a bet down (fortunately for me).

Larry
DevilHorse

[duketaylor]

Not even close to cashing anything. I didn't see anything amiss except maybe a small bump by the winner going into the backstretch turn. There was no objection or steward's inquiry, so no big deal. Clean race, but where did Rich Strike come up with that speed from nowhere? Some of my picks just didn't show; nothing new. Oh well, Preakness next, on to Baltimore. Can't wait for the idiots running the portapotties, about as dumb as it gets. As always, exciting to watch!!

[OldPhiKap]

https://twitter.com/nbcsports/status...cmcDTKP4xId12w

Crazy.

[TheDevilMadeMeDoIt]

I feel for Steve Asmussen. If that horse doesn’t get in, Epicenter probably wins. The winner’s jockey rode a great race. I was happy for the owner, trainer and jockey. All I can say about the winner is he did appear to be improving. Good for those who bet the longest shot, they are having quite the celebration tonight. I would hate to be the Calumet employee who dropped him in a $30,000 claiming race. Back to the jockey, with the greatest jockeys in the country, it was a young unknown jock who rode an exceptional race. The jockeys who set that blistering pace made sure their horses had no chance to win. I liked Epicenter before the race, and still do. My other two, Cyberknife and White Abarrio ran terrible.

One other comment, the winner was still full of himself after running a mile and a quarter. I thought the outrider was going to kill him for savaging his pony.

All in all an entertaining race.

[TheDevilMadeMeDoIt]

https://twitter.com/nbcsports/status...cmcDTKP4xId12w

Crazy.

Thanks for that link. I’m even more impressed with that ride. He looked like he was maneuvering a sports car, zigging, zagging and splitting horses to catch and pass Epicenter. That kid doesn’t need to be riding cheap claimers in Cincinnati, he needs to be at Churchill full time.

[Bluedog]

https://twitter.com/nbcsports/status...cmcDTKP4xId12w

Crazy.

Wow, it's nuts that Rich Strike was in 10th when the commentator said they're in the "final stretch" and doesn't even mention Rich Strike gaining until the horse is literally even with the other two horses a few seconds before the finish line. Crazy comeback.

Checked again and the gap between "Rich Strike is coming up on the inside!" And "Rich Strike has won the Kentucky Derby" is like 4 seconds.

[DevilHorse]

Here are the Past Performances for Saturday's Churchill Downs races of interest (for me anyway). I'm glad to say that Brisnet has been updating the PPs with the latest workouts. I noticed that the bullet work by Crown Pride yesterday (46 3/5 for 4f) is already in there, so have at it.

Churchill Distaff Turf Mile:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
[ URL above, May 7, 2022, Churchill Downs - Race 5, PPs]
In Italian caught my eye in the Honey Fox. Speak of the Devil gets Pratt. What do I know about turf racing?

The Pat Day Mile:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
[ URL above, May 7, 2022, Churchill Downs - Race 7, PPs]
My Prankster, Pappacap, Major General, and the return of the king Jack Christopher. Jack Christopher has a miler pedigree and should like moisture, but is he ready. I expect a return to the winner's circle that looks like the Echo Zulu race.

The Derby City Distaff:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
[ URL above, May 7, 2022, Churchill Downs - Race 8, PPs]
Just One Time, Lady Rocket, Bell's The One, and Kimari are all fast fillies. Just One Time continues her ascent; she also has Speightstown/Gone West in her pedigree to cover the mud.

The Churchill Downs Stakes:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
[ URL above, May 7, 2022, Churchill Downs - Race 10, PPs]
Really? That's the best name they could come up with? Would Belmont name something after themselves? Well, OK.. But that was named after August Belmont, not the Belmont Park Stakes. Weren't there any good horses that ever ran at this track that could use a race? This used to be the Churchill Downs Handicap, but the turned it into a Sprint Stakes Race for 4YO and up. But I digress.
Jackie's Warrior, Cezanne, Mind Control, and Aloha West. Great Field. Aloha West was lucky to catch Jackie's Warrior and I still consider him the king. BUT, I see no Mud pedigree in JW, but the broodmare sire of Aloha West is Speightstown (Gone West). If the track favors mudders, I might take Aloha West.

The Turf Classic:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
[ URL above, May 7, 2022, Churchill Downs - Race 11, PPs]
Presented without comment for you turfers.

The Kentucky Derby:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/brisw...9/summary.html
[ URL above, May 7, 2022, Churchill Downs - Race 12, PPs]
Presented without comment now. But I'll have a lot to say, probably tomorrow.

Larry
DevilHorse

And what a day it was.. first, review of the day in general:

The Churchill Distaff Turf Mile was won by Speak Of The Devil, who was awarded a 98 Beyer:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on

The Pat Day Mile was won by Jack Christopher, who was awarded a 98 Beyer in his resounding comeback performance:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
https://twitter.com/i/status/1523000856341512192

The Derby City Distaff was won by Obligatory, who was awarded a 96 Beyer, in a last to first beauty:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
https://twitter.com/i/status/1523014115052118017
A bit of forewarning of what was to come for the KYD.

In the Churchill Downs Stakes, Jackies Warrior reasserted his dominance over the milers, and was awarded a huge 105 Beyer:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
https://twitter.com/i/status/1523046992779575296

In the Turf Classic, Santin won and was awarded a 101 Beyer:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
https://twitter.com/i/status/1523053037194989570

And in the Kentucky Derby Rich Strike struck a blow for the long shots of America, winning at 80-1, and was awarded a 101 Beyer and a lot of headlines and face time:
http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/insta...e=inc&print=on
https://twitter.com/i/status/1523077839758655491

More discussion <from me> on the KYD in another post.

Larry
DevilHorse

[TheDevilMadeMeDoIt]

The back story on the trainer Eric Reed is a sad tale with a happy ending. About six years ago lightning struck a barn at his facility. A barn caught fire and over twenty of his horses were killed. He had about thirteen left. He was ready to quit, but the community rallied around him. Some high level trainers helped him find new owners and horses to train. Last year he claims this horse for $30,000. By the way the horse won by 17 lengths that day, his only lifetime win. Several folks tried to claim him that day so Eric Reed had to win a draw. The horse ran in some small stakes races mainly at Turfway Park in Northern Kentucky, the old Latonia for any old timers. Then he only gets in the Derby because Lucas scratches his horse. The rest is history. Reed says he never went to a horse sale trying to buy a Derby horse. He says he buys less expensive horses who can win for his owners and make a little money. Chalk this win up as a victory for the little guy! I’m still loving it today even after he cost me my exacta with Epicenter and Zandon, my trifectas with those two and White Abarrio and Cyberknife, and my wins bets on those. This is why I love horse racing, the richest owners can’t always buy their way to success. Sometimes just good hard working folks, who have had some adversity win the big prize.

[DevilHorse]

The back story on the trainer Eric Reed is a sad tale with a happy ending. About six years ago lightning struck a barn at his facility. A barn caught fire and over twenty of his horses were killed. He had about thirteen left. He was ready to quit, but the community rallied around him. Some high level trainers helped him find new owners and horses to train. Last year he claims this horse for $30,000. By the way the horse won by 17 lengths that day, his only lifetime win. Several folks tried to claim him that day so Eric Reed had to win a draw. The horse ran in some small stakes races mainly at Turfway Park in Northern Kentucky, the old Latonia for any old timers. Then he only gets in the Derby because Lucas scratches his horse. The rest is history. Reed says he never went to a horse sale trying to buy a Derby horse. He says he buys less expensive horses who can win for his owners and make a little money. Chalk this win up as a victory for the little guy! I’m still loving it today even after he cost me my exacta with Epicenter and Zandon, my trifectas with those two and White Abarrio and Cyberknife, and my wins bets on those. This is why I love horse racing, the richest owners can’t always buy their way to success. Sometimes just good hard working folks, who have had some adversity win the big prize.

A couple of years ago, this was Saffie Joseph (without the barn burning). He was just training claimers. Then one of his claimers (Math Wizard I think) won the Pennsylvania Derby and his owners had the money to buy some better horses, and some better horses found him. And now he had 2 horses in the KYD like White Abarrio.

Larry
DevilHorse

[DevilHorse]

The first that I wondered about was whether the incredible speed at the beginning of the race had taken the starch out of the leading horses at the end. I looked back at a sampling of the final quarters of previous Kentucky Derbys. If found that the final quarter of this year’s derby was comparable if not just as fast as previous derbys. This year was about 26 seconds for the last quarter. Previous years were 26 to 27 seconds. Rich Strike had to have finished in about 24 seconds, which is a decent opening quarter for claimers in 6f race. Note the opening quarter in this race 21 3/5 (fastest in KYD history); smokin’.

For those who wonder how inbreeding might hurt thoroughbreds, Rich Strike is 2x3 inbred to Smart Strike, a mud sire – could it have had an effect?

The race had torrid fractions early and Rich Strike had only 2 horses beat. It appears that he was 13 lengths down at the ¼ poll. Pet Peeve, thoroughbred charts are terrible; they show relative distance from the previous horse and we are left to do the math on total accrued distance behind the leader. This is unacceptable in a race with more than 5 horses. Insanity in the KYD.

Who’s the closest person to the horse?? The horse’s groom of course. Here is his reaction:
https://twitter.com/i/status/1523113706015526913

This Rich Strike savaging incident, after the race, was not the worst case I’ve ever seen, but it lasted the longest:
https://twitter.com/i/status/1523078118801502208
The outrider gets extra points as his arm had to be REALLY tired after; and that pony he was just super calm. And if you think he didn’t know what’s going on? Horses see almost 350 degrees around their head because of the eyes on both sides of their head; think about that.

Horses do develop at different rates and I can’t help but feel that this horse just fell into an unusual situation. These guys are barely teenagers in our years. The way he acted after the race suggested to me that he had some significant race preparation. That horse was hyped up and could have run another mile if asked.

For the 3rd year in a row, the crowd was essentially taken out of the result. Maximum Security taken down in favor of Country House (23 minute DQ decision), No people in attendance last year for Medina Spirit, and now such a shocker that 98% of the people lost bets or were just dumbfounded. It was quiet at Churchill Downs after the people went to their program to figure out who #21 was.

Except for the rogue horse, the 2nd (Epicenter) and 3rd (Zandon) horses would have been an expected result.

Rich Strike was bred at Calumet farms, Alydar's farm. Could a resurgence of Calumet be in the offing?

Larry
DevilHorse

[TheDevilMadeMeDoIt]

The first that I wondered about was whether the incredible speed at the beginning of the race had taken the starch out of the leading horses at the end. I looked back at a sampling of the final quarters of previous Kentucky Derbys. If found that the final quarter of this year’s derby was comparable if not just as fast as previous derbys. This year was about 26 seconds for the last quarter. Previous years were 26 to 27 seconds. Rich Strike had to have finished in about 24 seconds, which is a decent opening quarter for claimers in 6f race. Note the opening quarter in this race 21 3/5 (fastest in KYD history); smokin’.

For those who wonder how inbreeding might hurt thoroughbreds, Rich Strike is 2x3 inbred to Smart Strike, a mud sire – could it have had an effect?

The race had torrid fractions early and Rich Strike had only 2 horses beat. It appears that he was 13 lengths down at the ¼ poll. Pet Peeve, thoroughbred charts are terrible; they show relative distance from the previous horse and we are left to do the math on total accrued distance behind the leader. This is unacceptable in a race with more than 5 horses. Insanity in the KYD.

Who’s the closest person to the horse?? The horse’s groom of course. Here is his reaction:
https://twitter.com/i/status/1523113706015526913

This Rich Strike savaging incident, after the race, was not the worst case I’ve ever seen, but it lasted the longest:
https://twitter.com/i/status/1523078118801502208
The outrider gets extra points as his arm had to be REALLY tired after; and that pony he was just super calm. And if you think he didn’t know what’s going on? Horses see almost 350 degrees around their head because of the eyes on both sides of their head; think about that.

Horses do develop at different rates and I can’t help but feel that this horse just fell into an unusual situation. These guys are barely teenagers in our years. The way he acted after the race suggested to me that he had some significant race preparation. That horse was hyped up and could have run another mile if asked.

For the 3rd year in a row, the crowd was essentially taken out of the result. Maximum Security taken down in favor of Country House (23 minute DQ decision), No people in attendance last year for Medina Spirit, and now such a shocker that 98% of the people lost bets or were just dumbfounded. It was quiet at Churchill Downs after the people went to their program to figure out who #21 was.

Except for the rogue horse, the 2nd (Epicenter) and 3rd (Zandon) horses would have been an expected result.

Rich Strike was bred at Calumet farms, Alydar's farm. Could a resurgence of Calumet be in the offing?

Larry
DevilHorse

A question to DevilHorse. Who at Calumet would normally be in the position to make the decision to drop him in a $30k maiden claiming race? I know he didn’t run a lick in his first race, but he surely had trained better for his second race where he won by 17plus lengths. Finally, he appears to want to run forever, if he was your horse, would you skip the Preakness and run in the Belmont?

[budwom]

Stop biting the pony 🐴

[DevilHorse]

A question to DevilHorse. Who at Calumet would normally be in the position to make the decision to drop him in a $30k maiden claiming race? I know he didn’t run a lick in his first race, but he surely had trained better for his second race where he won by 17plus lengths. Finally, he appears to want to run forever, if he was your horse, would you skip the Preakness and run in the Belmont?

Most breeding farms DO NOT have a racing operation. A few of the big/rich ones now, like Godolphin and Winstar do, but only to augment their broodmare band, racing fillies like Malathaat. So, now I'm just assuming now, you are a one time famous, big-time breeder like Calumet, that previously produced 8 Kentucky Derby winners like Citation, but one since 1968 (they had Strike The Gold in 1991), you are not looking to race any male horses who are not big time stallion prospects.

Rich Strike was out of a champion mare from Canada. The sire Keen Ice was a decent Stakes horse, but he wasn't consistent. I have no doubt that they would have attempted to sell Rich Strike at Keeneland's yearling sale. Keeneland is about 1 mile west of Calumet as you get off the loop around Lexington. Why ship a baby anywhere else? He might have had a defect or something that prevented him from selling, but he wasn't sold as a yearling (I couldn't find if he was even entered). So the next thing to do was to train him and try to sell him with a private sale or a claimer once he was fit. About 10% of yearlings go through the sales ring RNA - Reserve Not Achieved; it is possible he did go through the ring and not enough was bid (the story will no doubt be out this week).

His first race was on the Turf and he failed miserably. 10 lengths back in a mile in only 1:39 and change. Did he stop for coffee? Turf races are usually faster than dirt. OK, it was his first race, but after putting 2 years of bills into the horse, it is not unheard of to enter a horse for a claimer. They raced this park at Ellis Park, which is a second tier track. Keen Ice's stud fee was $20k and his average yearling price Rich Strike's year was $45k. So if you bought the horse for $30k, you already had 1 year of training into a semi-fit horse already at $10k above the stud fee; decent but this is not a Northern Dancer colt and he didn't appear to be performing. Calumet is not really in the colt racing business; they are a broodmare and stud farm. So at the time, this worked out for Calumet I would think. Calumet has about 10 studs at their farm, but their so-so studs that probably get 20-50 mares a year at $5k-7.5k stud fees. Most of the money toes to the syndicates. Calumet makes money by boarding the mares and administering to the foaling and stud services. They have a big sprawling farm that probably costs much in tax dollars, so paying to train unworthy colts is not an expense they're interested in keeping on the ledger

Calumet owns broodmares and offers stud services to broodmares owned by individuals. Rich Strike's mom is owned by Calumet. So he was owned, when he was claimed, by Calumet. So I think the intent, by the ownership group at Calumet, was to get the horse sold all along through private sale or to put him into a claimer once he established his level, like all RNA horses. Keep him if he proved to be wonderful, but his trajectory did not point toward "wonderful" apparently.

Calumet did get the purse money from the race that they lost the colt in, but that 17 lengths must have sat in their mind. Still, Rich Strike's career after that was nothing to write home about. His next win would be the stuff of legends. No one knew and I'm sure he gave no hints.

Larry
DevilHorse

[TheDevilMadeMeDoIt]

Most breeding farms DO NOT have a racing operation. A few of the big/rich ones now, like Godolphin and Winstar do, but only to augment their broodmare band, racing fillies like Malathaat. So, now I'm just assuming now, you are a one time famous, big-time breeder like Calumet, that previously produced 8 Kentucky Derby winners like Citation, but one since 1968 (they had Strike The Gold in 1991), you are not looking to race any male horses who are not big time stallion prospects.

Rich Strike was out of a champion mare from Canada. The sire Keen Ice was a decent Stakes horse, but he wasn't consistent. I have no doubt that they would have attempted to sell Rich Strike at Keeneland's yearling sale. Keeneland is about 1 mile west of Calumet as you get off the loop around Lexington. Why ship a baby anywhere else? He might have had a defect or something that prevented him from selling, but he wasn't sold as a yearling (I couldn't find if he was even entered). So the next thing to do was to train him and try to sell him with a private sale or a claimer once he was fit. About 10% of yearlings go through the sales ring RNA - Reserve Not Achieved; it is possible he did go through the ring and not enough was bid (the story will no doubt be out this week).

His first race was on the Turf and he failed miserably. 10 lengths back in a mile in only 1:39 and change. Did he stop for coffee? Turf races are usually faster than dirt. OK, it was his first race, but after putting 2 years of bills into the horse, it is not unheard of to enter a horse for a claimer. They raced this park at Ellis Park, which is a second tier track. Keen Ice's stud fee was $20k and his average yearling price Rich Strike's year was $45k. So if you bought the horse for $30k, you already had 1 year of training into a semi-fit horse already at $10k above the stud fee; decent but this is not a Northern Dancer colt and he didn't appear to be performing. Calumet is not really in the colt racing business; they are a broodmare and stud farm. So at the time, this worked out for Calumet I would think. Calumet has about 10 studs at their farm, but their so-so studs that probably get 20-50 mares a year at $5k-7.5k stud fees. Most of the money toes to the syndicates. Calumet makes money by boarding the mares and administering to the foaling and stud services. They have a big sprawling farm that probably costs much in tax dollars, so paying to train unworthy colts is not an expense they're interested in keeping on the ledger

Calumet owns broodmares and offers stud services to broodmares owned by individuals. Rich Strike's mom is owned by Calumet. So he was owned, when he was claimed, by Calumet. So I think the intent, by the ownership group at Calumet, was to get the horse sold all along through private sale or to put him into a claimer once he established his level, like all RNA horses. Keep him if he proved to be wonderful, but his trajectory did not point toward "wonderful" apparently.

Calumet did get the purse money from the race that they lost the colt in, but that 17 lengths must have sat in their mind. Still, Rich Strike's career after that was nothing to write home about. His next win would be the stuff of legends. No one knew and I'm sure he gave no hints.

Larry
DevilHorse

Thanks for the answer. Watching America’s Day at the Races and they keep going back to yesterday’s Derby. Just interviewed Prat and he said his job was to follow Epicenter. He thought he could win at the head of the stretch, but Epicenter never quit. He didn’t really say much about the winner. I wonder if he even really saw him until the end. Lots of positive comments in the press and twitter regarding Sonny Leon’s outstanding ride.

[aimo]

I absolutely loved it!!!

The announcers were so busy yelling about Epicenter and Zandon, they weren't even seeing Rich Strike until he was passing them. We saw him coming up and were screaming him on.

Love the longshots!