Quote Originally Posted by TheDevilMadeMeDoIt View Post
I thought the races at Fairgrounds were great. Lots of high quality and high priced horse flesh. I didn’t win any money. What else is new. I am trying to figure out trainer angles. So the TVg guy called it with the Pletcher horse Momentus saying Pletcher didn’t ship him from Florida just for ride. He was right. So then how to look at Brad Cox’s decision to run Turnerloose on the dirt, after only racing 4 times on the grass. Just guessing what she might do, or actually thinking she could win. I had seen this horse win at KyDowns on the grass. She was great that day. But, she was coming off two straight losses. I looked at her dirt works which are pretty ordinary. I love her name, a play on “Turn Her Loose.” And then I passed. She won and paid a gazillion. She costs $50k and has now won $350k. A very good investment. Her time was only fair, but she doesn’t care and neither do her owners and jockey. Or for that matter anyone who bet her. DevilHorse does her pedigree say dirt or turf?


The maiden races were competitive with really expensive and well bred horses. TVG compared them to Saratoga type maiden races.

It seemed every other race was won by a long shot. So all in all the best race day of the year, so far.
Turnerloose's pedigree looks like 'dirt' to me.. well, you know what I mean.. not turf close up. But it isn't that easy to tell sometimes. Nyquist is the sire, but he never ran on the turf, so you don't know if he would have loved the turf or not. But on closer inspection, you can see the suggestion of turf. Nyquist is 5x5 to Northern Dancer, who is a dynamite turf sire. Also, Nyquist is out of the first crop of Uncle Mo, who has sired some top quality turf horses (last year's turf sprinter Golden Pal for example). Secretariat is in the pedigree too and he can sire anything and owned a turf world record. On the damside, Turnerloose has a double Secretariat, and Northern Dancer. So there is turf cred there too. This horse could be either for sure, but her kryptonite might be the mud.

The maiden races were really good. Pedigrees and high prices and homebreds out of great mares. And even they mostly all ran well. These horses may benefit from the extra 6 months of maturity that they were spared not running at Saratoga/Del Mar.

There may always be something to the 'bounce' theory of handicapping. Of course, Pappacap would apply for that. We'll see what the comments and equipment changes are for Slow Down Andy.

Larry
DevilHorse