This Week in the ACC - 11/29-12/5

[pfrduke]

Heading into the ACC/B1G challenge, the league prognosis is bleak. Going by the Pomeroy rankings, the ACC is favored in precisely 2 of the 14 games, with one of those by just a single point (although, to be fair, a lot of the ACC underdogs are getting just a point or two). The most lopsided challenge result was 11-3 ACC in 2017; the B1G has never had more than 8 wins (although in 2011 that was an 8-4 outcome, their best result by percentage). Holding the other side under double digit wins would, I fear, be a major accomplishment this year. At least the bar is low!

And then we get conference play later this week - right out of the frying pan and into the fire. Let’s take a look at the slate.

Monday
[47]Virginia (+1) host [21]Iowa (7:00, ESPN2)
[134]Boston College (-7) hosts [194]South Florida (7:00, ACCN)
[40]Notre Dame (+6) at [23]Illinois (9:00, ESPN2)

Tuesday
[61]Syracuse (+1) hosts [31]Indiana (7:00, ESPN2)
[199]Pittsburgh (+4) hosts [100]Minnesota (7:00, ESPNU)
[29]Florida State (+9) at [2]Purdue (7:30, ESPN)
[92]Wake Forest (+2) hosts [41]Northwestern (9:00, ESPNU)
[45]Clemson (-1) at [95]Rutgers (9:00, ESPN2)
[6]Duke (+1) at [24]Ohio State (9:30, ESPN)

Wednesday
[39]Louisville (+6) at [26]Michigan State (7:15, ESPN)
[27]Virginia Tech (+1) at [46]Maryland (7:15, ESPN2)
[59]NC State (-7) hosts [102]Nebraska (7:15, ESPNU)
[49]North Carolina (+4) hosts [9]Michigan (9:15, ESPN)
[67]Georgia Tech (+2) hosts [32]Wisconsin (9:15, ESPN2)
[102]Miami (+6) at [75]Penn State (9:15, ESPNU)

Thursday is dark

Friday
[134]Boston College (+5) hosts [40]Notre Dame (6:00, ACCN)
[47]Virginia (-13) hosts [199]Pittsburgh (8:00, ACCN)

Saturday
[106]Miami (+3) hosts [45]Clemson (12:00, ACCN)
[59]NC State (-1) hosts [39]Louisville (2:00, ESPN2)
[27]Virginia Tech (-11) hosts [92]Wake Forest (2:00, ACCN)
[29]Florida State (-9) hosts [61]Syracuse (4:00, ACCN)

Sunday
[67]Georgia Tech (-2) hosts [49]North Carolina (3:00, ESPN2)


ACC Non-Conference: 68-28
ACC v. Power 6: 9-13
AAC: 1-3
America East: 2-1
A-Sun: 2-0
A-10: 0-5
Big 12: 0-3
Big East: 1-1
Big South: 11-0
B1G Ten: 1-1
Big West: 1-0
CAA: 6-0
CUSA: 4-0
Horizon: 1-0
Ivy: 4-0
MAAC: 3-0
MAC: 0-1
MEAC: 2-0
NEC: 3-0
Pac-12: 2-1
Patriot: 9-2
SEC: 5-7
Southern: 4-2
Southland: 1-0
SWAC: 2-0
WCC: 2-1
Non-D1: 1-0

[brevity]

Based on KenPom ratings, the six best ACC teams face their Big Ten opponent on the road. Also, Miami.

[6]Duke at [24] Ohio State
[27]Virginia Tech at [46]Maryland
[29]Florida State at [2] Purdue
[39]Louisville at [26]Michigan State
[40]Notre Dame at [23] Illinois
[45]Clemson at [95]Rutgers
[102]Miami at [75]Penn State

The lower tier teams (apologies to six of them) play at home.

[47]Virginia hosts [21]Iowa
[49]North Carolina hosts [9]Michigan
[59]NC State hosts [102]Nebraska
[61]Syracuse hosts [31]Indiana
[67]Georgia Tech hosts [32]Wisconsin
[92]Wake Forest hosts [41]Northwestern
[199]Pittsburgh hosts [100]Minnesota

Not that there's a huge difference between #45 and #47, but it's an observation worth sharing. I feel like this home/road divide may skew the results further in the Big Ten's favor.

[CameronDuke]

UVa is currently a 1.5 point underdog at home tonight to Iowa. I just don’t see it.

[CDu]

UVa is currently a 1.5 point underdog at home tonight to Iowa. I just don’t see it.

Torvik has it as a slight Iowa lean, but by less than a point. He thinks Iowa better by ~3 on a neutral floor.

[budwom]

guess I get to root for Juwan Howard this week, eh?

[UrinalCake]

It would have been cool if we had been matched up with Purdue, though that would have been a brutal stretch for the players. Am I reading that right that we're a one point underdog? That seems wrong. Hoping our conference brethren is able to pull some upsets to help our perception and SOS.

[MChambers]

guess I get to root for Juwan Howard this week, eh?

Hard to do. The other option is rooting for the meteor, but I don't think our country needs a meteor strike right now.

[CDu]

It would have been cool if we had been matched up with Purdue, though that would have been a brutal stretch for the players. Am I reading that right that we're a one point underdog? That seems wrong. Hoping our conference brethren is able to pull some upsets to help our perception and SOS.

Torvik has us JUST on the wrong side of even, at a 0.2 point underdog. He thinks we're the better team, but gives the ever-so-slight edge to OSU for their home court advantage. I'm guessing KenPom has us as an ever-so-slight favorite, as his model has a slightly larger separation between Duke and OSU in efficiency margin.

I think we'll win, but it seems the computers consider this game a true toss-up.

[CameronDuke]

Torvik has it as a slight Iowa lean, but by less than a point. He thinks Iowa better by ~3 on a neutral floor.

Interesting. Does it show any projections yet for Duke at Ohio State tomorrow? I’m thinking if tomorrow Duke is a slight underdog, it will be the last time they’re not favored to win a game they play in for a long time.

[Faustus]

Golly, I only think the ACC will win maybe four of these games... and the Big Ten isn't even all that powerful this season. I assume teams like Clemson and State will lay an egg as they usually do in this challenge. Most the other match-ups do not look very favorable. Oh well! No one remembers this by January...

[CDu]

Interesting. Does it show any projections yet for Duke at Ohio State tomorrow? I’m thinking if tomorrow Duke is a slight underdog, it will be the last time they’re not favored to win a game they play in for a long time.

He has Duke as a 0.2 point underdog at OSU, and a 0.6 point underdog at FSU later. Those are the only games on the schedule that he doesn't currently have Duke the favorite. Louisville is next closest with Duke favored by 0.4, and he doesn't have any other spread within 2 (@ND and @Clemson are the only others with a spread within 3).

[CameronDuke]

He has Duke as a 0.2 point underdog at OSU, and a 0.6 point underdog at FSU later. Those are the only games on the schedule that he doesn't currently have Duke the favorite. Louisville is next closest with Duke favored by 0.4, and he doesn't have any other spread within 2 (@ND and @Clemson are the only others with a spread within 3).

Good for Duke fans who want them to get a 1 seed. If Duke wins tomorrow, I’ll be interested to see if they’re still underdogs at FSU. I think Duke could be a 28-3, 29-2 type team heading into the ACCT. They’ll likely be favored in 95ish% of ACC games like you said but they’re still bound to lose 1-2.

[CDu]

Good for Duke fans who want them to get a 1 seed. If Duke wins tomorrow, I’ll be interested to see if they’re still underdogs at FSU. I think Duke could be a 28-3, 29-2 type team heading into the ACCT. They’ll likely be favored in 95ish% of ACC games like you said but they’re still bound to lose 1-2.

Unless we win by a ton tomorrow and FSU struggles by a ton, I doubt we'll move to favorites against FSU. But it could happen I guess.

And Torvik has Duke going 15-5 in conference at the moment, which they suggest will still win the conference.

I think a 25-6 record would put us right on the fringe of a 1 seed. So hopefully we win a few more than Torvik predicts.

[PackMan97]

Heading into the ACC/B1G challenge, the league prognosis is bleak. Going by the Pomeroy rankings, the ACC is favored in precisely 2 of the 14 games, with one of those by just a single point (although, to be fair, a lot of the ACC underdogs are getting just a point or two).
[45]Clemson (-1) at [95]Rutgers (9:00, ESPN2)
[59]NC State (-7) hosts [102]Nebraska (7:15, ESPNU)

When Clemson and State are the two teams that are favored...it's going to be an interesting challenge.

[CameronDuke]

Looks like UVa is now -1.5 over Iowa tonight now …

[ElliottHoo]

Looks like UVa is now -1.5 over Iowa tonight now …

I have utterly no idea whether that's a fair line or not (though it was indeed +1.5 last night and is now up to -2 for UVA). I'm wondering if Murray for Iowa has the flu or something.

UVA is starting to get its act together after a slow start (its Igor Milicic's world, we're just along for the ride), but I have no idea how to grade Iowa. They've played the 2nd easiest schedule of any P6 team so far (behind Texas Tech) *and* they've played nothing but home games so far. They've consistently annihilated them, so they clearly aren't bad, but they have yet to play a team as *good* as Gardner-Webb. So... like, who knows?

[DU82]

Hard to do. The other option is rooting for the meteor, but I don't think our country needs a meteor strike right now.

I usually root for the roof to collapse, but in this case I'm not sure if it's the roof or the ceiling.

(I'm only 12 miles away, I'm afraid some pieces of the meteor might come close.)

[CDu]

I have utterly no idea whether that's a fair line or not (though it was indeed +1.5 last night and is now up to -2 for UVA). I'm wondering if Murray for Iowa has the flu or something.

UVA is starting to get its act together after a slow start (its Igor Milicic's world, we're just along for the ride), but I have no idea how to grade Iowa. They've played the 2nd easiest schedule of any P6 team so far (behind Texas Tech) *and* they've played nothing but home games so far. They've consistently annihilated them, so they clearly aren't bad, but they have yet to play a team as *good* as Gardner-Webb. So... like, who knows?

Yeah, I suspect that uncertainty in people’s minds about Iowa, combined with people’s belief in Bennett is what is driving bettors to put money on UVa and push the line so sharply.

Iowa is definitely an unknown at this point. Great results so far but against truly awful opponents.

[CameronDuke]

I did not realize Iowa leads the country in scoring at 97.2 ppg.

Their average margin of victory is 32 points.

[OldPhiKap]

I did not realize Iowa leads the country in scoring at 97.2 ppg.

Their average margin of victory is 32 points.

Gotta think that’s gonna take a big dent tonight.