MBB: Duke @ Ohio State (Tue 11/30, 9:30 pm, ESPN) Pre-Game and In-Game Thread

[CameronDuke]

Black jerseys tomorrow at Ohio State according to Duke Men’s Basketball’s official Twitter account @DukeMBB.

[LasVegas]

Black jerseys tomorrow at Ohio State according to Duke Men’s Basketball’s official Twitter account @DukeMBB.

#1 ranking (probably) with the black unis? Yeah, upset waiting to happen!

[TKG]

Black jerseys tomorrow at Ohio State according to Duke Men’s Basketball’s official Twitter account @DukeMBB.

Wait, what? Not our traditional grey?

[Nugget]

I like the way our schedule is set up so far this season, and this is another great test in a challenging spot. This is a test of mental/emotional maturity. Hopefully our captains are stepping up and being vocal this week, leading by example, and keeping our freshmen sharp. No time to watch ESPN highlights from Gonzaga this week. How do we handle a huge success like beating #1? This is a game to focus on the simple things in a raucous environment: next play mentality, moving feet and not reaching on D, getting to the free throw line and MAKING them, solid screens, crisp passes, boxing out, etc. If we focus on staying poised and playing fundamental basketball well, our talent level should carry us to a W. We got this!

Agree with all of the above. Will also be a test of physical recovery - do we have heavy legs or can the team sustain the very good defensive pressure exhibited against Gonzaga.

[DavidBenAkiva]

I'm sorry. Duke drops in the nerd rankings if we remove preseason data? How is that possible?

I think it has a lot more to do with the other teams than it has to do with Duke. Virginia Tech is ahead of Duke in T-Rank when you adjust the timeframe. That's in part because their 3-point defense has been great against a mostly weak schedule. The Hokies dropped 2 games this past week against good competition - Memphis and Xavier - and lo and behold Xavier shot the ball well against them. For Duke, the game against The Citadel is factoring into this a lot. The 62.5 eFG% and allowing 18-34 for 3-point defense makes it seem like Duke is not a great defensive team. Really, every game factors into it a lot since there are only 7 games.

[CDu]

To augment DBA's point, our offensive and defensive efficiency so far this season are better than what Torvik had predicted coming into the season. We are at 115.5 adjusted offense and 90.7 adjusted defense based on just the games played, compared with 113.8 and 92.1 in the model. So clearly Torvik liked us less coming into the season than they do at the moment. It's just that some other teams have exceeded expectations even moreso, mainly due to performances against bad opponents.

Specifically, LSU, Iowa, Va Tech, Indiana, and USC jump ahead of Duke if you exclude the preseason data. And Wyoming is 15th, ahead of Kansas. Those teams have a whopping zero wins over top-50 opponents so far. They've just been piling up on really bad teams a tad moreso than we have.

It's one of the reasons that these guys put in those preseason weights - to make the data a bit less noisy until we get a sufficient sample size to ignore the weights.

[Bluedog]

To augment DBA's point, our offensive and defensive efficiency so far this season are better than what Torvik had predicted coming into the season. We are at 115.5 adjusted offense and 90.7 adjusted defense based on just the games played, compared with 113.8 and 92.1 in the model. So clearly Torvik liked us less coming into the season than they do at the moment. It's just that some other teams have exceeded expectations even moreso, mainly due to performances against bad opponents.

Specifically, LSU, Iowa, Va Tech, Indiana, and USC jump ahead of Duke if you exclude the preseason data. And Wyoming is 15th, ahead of Kansas. Those teams have a whopping zero wins over top-50 opponents so far. They've just been piling up on really bad teams a tad moreso than we have.

It's one of the reasons that these guys put in those preseason weights - to make the data a bit less noisy until we get a sufficient sample size to ignore the weights.

And the NCAA tournament selection committee basically only cares about wins and losses and the quality of those, rather than "raw rank." They use raw rank to determine the quality of opponents though. (Using their metric of course, not T-rank/Pom.) A team ranked in the top 10-20 raw ranks but with no quality wins would not get a top seed. We can ask our team last year about that...unfortunately we lost a lot of close games and were punished accordingly by not making the tournament even though our rank was respectable.

Still, fun for us...

[gumbomoop]

This is a test of mental/emotional maturity. Hopefully our captains are stepping up and being vocal this week, leading by example, and keeping our freshmen sharp. No time to watch ESPN highlights from Gonzaga this week. How do we handle a huge success like beating #1? This is a game to focus on the simple things in a raucous environment: next play mentality, moving feet and not reaching on D, getting to the free throw line and MAKING them, solid screens, crisp passes, boxing out, etc.

Krzyzewski talks a whole lot about “being in the moment,” he and the staff with the players, and the players with each other. I assume that trope will be part of the prep for this game. And that its expression will include the usual and the obvious — (a) Duke is every opponent’s Super Bowl, (b) there’s always a danger of letdown after an emotional win, (c) Ohio State is very good — and the unusual — (d) the Gonzaga game was a Super Marquee Plus matchup, which (e) Duke unexpectedly (to most) won, and so (f) has pushed Duke a tad too quickly either to #1 or #2 in the polls.

All of which means that at this moment, K channeling Captain Moore channeling K, “You guys better be in the moment, heads neither in the clouds nor up your anatomy, and have your stuff together.”

[UrinalCake]

"Trap game" is one of those phrases that had some legitimate meaning when it was first coined, but now has been overused and had its meaning wrung out of it by lazy commentators seeking to seem clever or knowledgeable when they're really not... this isn't a trap game in any sense of the word, as there is no bigger game following. The Buckeyes should -- better -- have our full attention.

To me there are several categories of trap games:
- little game preceding big game
- little game following big game
- first true road game
- first game after exam break
- second game after two-day turnaround with travel involved
- the games just before and just after playing UNC (maybe the same thing as the first and second bullets)
- any game played at NC State or VT
- any game played in February against a team on the bubble who needs a big win to "punch their ticket"
- any game against Syracuse or UVA when we played a run and gun team just beforehand, or vice versa

Basically I am so paranoid that half of our games are trap games!

[Phredd3]

Hypothetically, what would you call a game that follows your most important and emotionally taxing game of the year and is against a good opponent that you would expect to beat if it were elsewhere on the schedule, but will be iffy since it's following your biggest game?

Growing up, we referred to this as a "letdown" game. As in, we're flush with success, letdown our guard, and came in ill-prepared to give it our best effort. I'm sure Coaches K and S are doing their level best to insure that does not happen tomorrow.

[uh_no]

To me there are several categories of trap games:
- little game preceding big game
- little game following big game
- first true road game
- first game after exam break
- second game after two-day turnaround with travel involved
- the games just before and just after playing UNC (maybe the same thing as the first and second bullets)
- any game played at NC State or VT
- any game played in February against a team on the bubble who needs a big win to "punch their ticket"
- any game against Syracuse or UVA when we played a run and gun team just beforehand, or vice versa

Basically I am so paranoid that half of our games are trap games!

I used to say that according to DBR, every game was inevitably a big game or a trap game. But apparently big games are now trap games, too.

Any game that one shows up underprepared for or looking past increases the chance of a loss, regardless of opponent. Sometimes you lose games you oughtn't despite being well prepared. It happens. Rationalizing it with "trap game" I think is a bit antiquated and fits our unending need to try to assign patterns to things when they might not exist.

[CameronDuke]

Duke will take the court in Columbus tomorrow night as the top ranked team in the country in the AP Poll. Ohio State is unranked. This is the 145th week in program history Duke has been ranked 1st in the AP Poll.

AP Poll - Week 4

1. Duke
2. Purdue
3. Gonzaga
4. Baylor
5. UCLA
6. Villanova
7. Texas
8. Kansas
9. Kentucky
10. Arkansas
11. Arizona
12. BYU
13. Tennessee
14. Florida
15. Houston
16. Alabama
17. Connecticut
18. Memphis
19. Iowa State
20. USC
21. Auburn
22. Michigan State
23. Wisconsin
24. Michigan
25. Seton Hall

[MarkD83]

To me there are several categories of trap games:
- little game preceding big game
- little game following big game
- first true road game
- first game after exam break
- second game after two-day turnaround with travel involved
- the games just before and just after playing UNC (maybe the same thing as the first and second bullets)
- any game played at NC State or VT
- any game played in February against a team on the bubble who needs a big win to "punch their ticket"
- any game against Syracuse or UVA when we played a run and gun team just beforehand, or vice versa

Basically I am so paranoid that half of our games are trap games!

So any game Duke loses becomes a trap game after the fact. Has Duke ever been a "trap game" for an opponent?

[DavidBenAkiva]

Duke will take the court in Columbus tomorrow night as the top ranked team in the country in the AP Poll. Ohio State is unranked. This is the 145th week in program history Duke has been ranked 1st in the AP Poll.

AP Poll - Week 4

1. Duke
2. Purdue
3. Gonzaga
4. Baylor
5. UCLA
6. Villanova
7. Texas
8. Kansas
9. Kentucky
10. Arkansas
11. Arizona
12. BYU
13. Tennessee
14. Florida
15. Houston
16. Alabama
17. Connecticut
18. Memphis
19. Iowa State
20. USC
21. Auburn
22. Michigan State
23. Wisconsin
24. Michigan
25. Seton Hall

Duke better get used to playing on the road against unranked teams this season. There are none (currently) left on the schedule.

[Bluedog]

Duke will take the court in Columbus tomorrow night as the top ranked team in the country in the AP Poll. Ohio State is unranked. This is the 145th week in program history Duke has been ranked 1st in the AP Poll.

AP Poll - Week 4

1. Duke
2. Purdue
3. Gonzaga
4. Baylor
5. UCLA
6. Villanova
7. Texas
8. Kansas
9. Kentucky
10. Arkansas
11. Arizona
12. BYU
13. Tennessee
14. Florida
15. Houston
16. Alabama
17. Connecticut
18. Memphis
19. Iowa State
20. USC
21. Auburn
22. Michigan State
23. Wisconsin
24. Michigan
25. Seton Hall

Seems kinda odd that Gonzaga spanked UCLA yet they came in at #3 and #5. Current #3 team lost to #1 team by 3 and #5 team lost to #3 team by 20+ in the same week yet both dropped about the same? Seems like quite a gulf. I guess there aren't many other teams that are deemed better than UCLA though. Also the AP voters often award "just keep winning" / punish a loss regardless of where/what to an extent.

[uh_no]

Duke better get used to playing on the road against unranked teams this season. There are none (currently) left on the schedule.

yeah. good that we're getting wins in now (knock on wood). But it does lead to a precarious league season, when every game is a potentially "bad" loss.

[Billy Dat]

just want to say thank you for this write-up in the OP, knew absolutely nothing about OSU.

The general wisdom among friends (and here, to some extent) seems to be that it's a major trap game, and I think I agree insofar as we're facing a true road crowd, but that only makes me want the win more. Really really want to see them sort of consolidate that poise they showed in the second half against the Zags and do the job away from home. Main wish list:

1. Please no cramping
2. Find ways to get Paolo involved in a close second half, if there is a close second half
3. Keels bounceback
4. Roach continues to find his place
5. We dominate defensively in the backcourt (feel like Moore and Keels could just smother their entire guard unit) and manage to contain Liddell with whoever

Hey man - would love to get your take on the Koepka locker room visit. I heard Gary Parrish and Matt Norlander talking about it on their CBS Eye on College Basketball pod and Norlander was trying to make the provocative point that Duke Bryson DeChambeau is the Duke of the PGA tour.

As to your other points...
1 - agree, can't K call Lebron and get some tips?
2 - it will be interesting to eventually have a game that is close AND where Paolo is not cramping. In the Kentucky and Gonzaga games, Keels is the one who has proven fearless come big-shot time, and Wendell has also been rock solid. Roach also gets points for his two late buckets against the Zags, especially that final drive.
3. While Trevor didn't score as much as he could have against Gonzaga, he left a lot of points on the foul line and had a 3 or two go in and out. BUT, he still drew a ton of fouls down the stretch that resulted in Wendell being able to go to the line. Plus, his defense was awesome and he played almost the whole game. I think he's been consistently excellent on defense.
4. Roach is another extended minutes machine. Once he can start knocking down the 3 with consistency, and adds a little more craftiness to his drives (I think he's medium crafty now), he will become a consistent double digit scorer...but we don't need him to do that right now. Interestingly, our starting perimeter has a 2.7-1 assist to turnover ratio but Jeremy is only at 2-1, mostly because his assists are not as high as Wendell (40 As vs 13 TOs - GAUDY!) or Trevor (24As against 8 TOs). This 3 headed beast is a big reason why we are so tough, especially Wendell...
5. I haven't see Ohio State play but based on the preview, it sounds like we have a big advantage in the backcourt so I hope our perimeter sets the tone and makes it really tough for them to initiate offense.

Other stuff I am looking for:
-Are we destined to be a mediocre to poor 3 point shooting team? It does not seem like we should be.
-Can Wendell Moore continue his torrid all around play?
-Can we continue to be a low turnover squad?
-Can Mark Williams continue his recent run of dominant play, especially against a team with no rotation player over 6'8"?
-Can we speed them up to a pace more to our liking?

I haven't seen a betting line but it seems like a bit of a pick-em. I don't agree. I have a feeling about our squad this year, we have a bunch of tough mofos who seem to relish these kinds of challenges. I feel like we'll win decisively.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Any game before two weeks off cannot be a trap ge unless we are inventing new definitions.

It's a Big Game. It's prime time ESPN out of conference road game.

Not a trap.

[kako]

Seems kinda odd that Gonzaga spanked UCLA yet they came in at #3 and #5. Current #3 team lost to #1 team by 3 and #5 team lost to #3 team by 20+ in the same week yet both dropped about the same? Seems like quite a gulf. I guess there aren't many other teams that are deemed better than UCLA though. Also the AP voters often award "just keep winning" / punish a loss regardless of where/what to an extent.

A #2 team losing to a #1 team usually won't drop you too much in the rankings anyway. The #2 team was supposed to lose. Yeah the Bruins got blown out, but they were missing their center and reportedly has illnesses going around. UCLA dropping 4 makes sense - they fall behind the undefeated team that beat the #1 team, as well as two other power conference undefeated teams. "The Conference of Champions" (ahem) team also still has its support from the voters who chose them to be #2 in the first place. Gonzaga lost a tight game to a #5 seed, one bounce and the game could have gone the other way. Dropping 2 spots isn't so crazy. But people still think Gonzaga is a great team, and Purdue only beat out the Zags for #2 by 14 measly points. I kinda feel sorry (though not that sorry) for Purdue not being #1, as they have never been ranked #1 ever, not even in the Big Dog days (tip of the hat to Mr. Capel - there have been better passes by a Duke player, but that behind the back pass to GHill to beat Purdue will always be in my memory).

Anyway, yippee for Duke being ranked #1 again in a season. I throw a ceremonial piece of confetti into the air as I eat a bagel... I'm sure the team is focused on improving, no matter what the ranking is. Beating OSU will be another sign of improvement (ability to keep focused on the game at hand to avoid the proverbial trap game and play well in a road game). But the only rankings I really care about is the last one in April.

9F

[kako]

The Duke Blue Devils take their winning ways to Columbus, Ohio for the annual ACC/B1G Challenge. This year, they face off against the Buckeyes of Ohio State. This will be the first true road game for the Blue Devils and last game before the annual finals break.

Ohio State is a study in contrasts. They are experienced and deep up front with a mostly young backcourt that is still figuring things out. Overall, it is a team that can really score the ball but struggles to defend. The engine behind the offense is do-it-all 6'7" JR PF E.J. Liddell. He leads the team in minutes, scoring (22.5 pts/gm), and blocks (3.8); and is second in rebounds (6.2) and assists (2.2). For good measure, he's hitting a career-best 40.9% of his 3-pointers on 3.7 attempts per game and better than 60% of his shots inside the arc. Liddell is a mostly below-the-rim player that plays an all-around game. He's comfortable playing out of either the low or high post and has developed his jumper to the point that it is a real weapon. Still, he's undersized at just 6'7" but has long arms and a keen understanding of angels. He relies on step-backs and fadeaways to get his shot off against taller players. There are few better forwards in the country.

The other big men for Ohio State include a number of rugged types, including 6'8" 5th-year SR F/C Kyle Young and 6'8" SO F/C Zed Key. Both have a few skills to operate with their backs to the basket, although Young has the more all-around game while Key is much more willing to operate close to the basket. Young comes off the bench and is second in scoring for the Buckeyes right now at 9.6 pts/game. He has the better jumper and made more than 40% of his 3-attempts last season, although on low volume. This year, the shots are not falling as often. Key can and will take a mid-range jumper and hits those at a high rate. Neither is much of a shot blocking presence. They are both serviceable high-major centers but nothing to write home about. Former Butler and Indiana 6'11" 6-th year SR C Joey Brunk is also in the frontcourt mix. He missed all of last season with a medical redshirt and is playing his way back into game shape. He has started each of the past two games for Ohio State, in fact, although only averaging 6.5 minutes per contest.

The backcourt has been the big issue for Ohio State this year. Last season, they relied on the shot-making heroics of Duane Washington, Jr. to provide balance to the high-octane offense. When his shots were falling, tOSU was capable of scoring on anyone. Washington left the team for the NBA Draft. Head Coach Chris Holtmann turned to the transfer portal and the high school ranks to fill out the backcourt this year with mixed results so far. The starting PG is the 5th-year Penn State transfer Jamari Wheeler. While slight of build at just 6'1" and 170 lbs, Wheeler was an All-B1G defensive team member each of the past two seasons. While Wheeler has a good-looking jumper, he is just not wired for scoring the ball and is averaging 5.0 pts/gm on the young season. The Buckeyes have been searching for consistent scoring from a pair of young guards, including 6'2" SO Meechie Johnson and 6'5" FR Malaki Branham. Both are talented and have shown flashes of potential but have not yet demonstrated anything resembling consistency. Johnson started the first game of the year but has come off the bench since. He is a good shooter and made a clutch 3 to help beat Seton Hall earlier this week. Against Florida, he was a no-show, scoring just 2 points on 1-7 shooting to go along with 3 TOs and 2 asts in 22 minutes. Johnson has been more of a dedicated shooter for Ohio State this year, rarely venturing into the restricted area with the ball. Branham, the Columbus native, has been starting in place of Johnson and has been ok so far. He's much more of a slasher to the rim and provides a more complete all-around game. Super Senior Jimmy Sotos, the former Bucknell player, is the reserve guard. He is in his second year for Ohio State and has mostly settled in for taking 3's when given the opportunity.

The SF position is currently occupied by 6'6" SR Justin Ahrens, a dedicated gunner. Ahrens has been starting in place of injured F Justice Sueing. Ahrens is a lot like Joey Baker, a player that provides shooting and not a whole lot else. Both play hard, I suppose. Ahrens is much more of an extreme player, having attempted (and missed) one FG attempt inside the arc on the season. SO Eugene Brown is getting a few spot minutes as a reserve SF as well with limited impact.

This Ohio State team has one stud, a very solid group of frontcourt players, and an ongoing search for backcourt production. After staring the season ranked and aspirations of competing in the B1G, the Buckeyes struggled to start the year against Akron, winning by 1. They steadily improved but have dropped 2 out of the last 3 against high-major competition. All were close games with the losses to Xavier and Florida by a combined 8 points. The Buckeyes score efficiently, mostly due to Liddell's excellence and good 3-point shooting. They play a slow pace of play and are getting absolutely killed on the offensive glass. The frontcourt should struggle against Duke's size and length. Outside of Joey Brunk, they don't have the size to compete with Williams on the glass. So long as the Banchero-Liddell matchup is a wash, Duke will have advantages at every other position. Duke is also playing efficiently in the halfcourt as the season progresses and are now 5th in the nation in offensive TO%. While Jamari Wheeler is a good defender and Malachi Branham has done a good job generating a few steals per game, OSU has not been able to force turnovers very often. Duke has valued the basketball this season and has used that to take down Kentucky and Gonzaga. The Duke backcourt, in particular Wendell Moore, has a serious advantage in this matchup.

KenPom and T-Rank view this as a relative toss-up given that the game is in Columbus. Still, Duke should be the #1 or #2 team on Tuesday night and favored against a team that has struggled since making a last-minute bucket to get past Akron. Still, it will be a home game and everyone gets up to play Duke. After a big win over Gonzaga late Friday night, will the Blue Devils be ready to face a fully hostile crowd for the first time?

Good write up. I agree with the Liddell comments. He must be contained. But I'm not so sure about it being Banchero-Liddell on every possession. I'm actually fine with Moore giving up points on O to save energy to dog Liddell, assuming Banchero can play a full game and score. Williams must protect the rim when Liddell gets there. And maybe even Griffin could body up on D for a few minutes to give the starters a breather? Just armchair coaching here. The other thing is that it is usually not The Man on the other team that beats Duke, it is a complimentary player that plays above their level (looking at you, Kenny Goins, Ernie Myers, Jerod Hasse, Malik Newman, etc.). Duke always brings out the other team's best effort. So it's no surprise to say that team defense is very important. Can't let a guy like Ahrens go off.

9F