MBB: Duke v. Gonzaga (Fri, Nov 26, 10:30 PM, ESPN) Pre-Game and In-Game Thread

[CDu]

While I agree that Timme is opportunistic, there is a substantial amount of respect lacking here. He is a skilled big man. Timme can face up in the mid post and he also has extremely good footwork with his back to the basket. Yes he does play under the rim, but he has craftiness and skill to boot. Mark is a fast runner, especially for his size, but is not extremely quick laterally. He also has the tendency to be clumsy and out of position... just the type of things that Timme takes advantage of. I'm extremely worried about Timme giving Mark a head fake or two and getting two quick fouls on him.

Also, with Timme and Holmgren on the court, my assumption is that Paolo guards Timme given the similar body types (and similar body types of Holmgren and Mark). This is problematic in more ways than one (energy, focus, foul trouble, etc.) so maybe Mark guards instead?

What I'm getting at is I actually think Paolo is more physically able to guard Timme, but he has a lot of other stuff on his plate whereas Mark is primarily a defense first guy. But I don't like the sound of Mark guarding Timme. That sounds like back cuts, easy layups, and fouls.

I'd be quite surprised if Williams was on anyone other than Timme - at least as the primary assignment. I don't think he can guard Holmgren well, as Holmgren is more mobile and perimeter-oriented. Conversely, I think Banchero can at least competently guard Holmgren.

The key for Williams will be avoiding getting his arms in a position that Timme can dive into him for fouls. And given his height/length advantage and Timme's lack of explosiveness, I think it will be important that Williams just not leave his feet at all against Timme. He has no need to do so; he is capable of blocking/contesting most of Timme's shots without jumping.

Easier said than done of course. And of course the other big key is containing the ballhandlers without losing Timme such that you don't allow Timme easy dumpoff opportunities where he does most of his damage.

You don't get style points people. A "garbage" bucket is still worth two points.

I didn't say his points don't count. But in terms of measuring talent, how you get your points matters. And Timme doesn't create most of his points; they are largely a function of the team's ability to create good looks for him.

Therefore, if a team wants to take him out of the game and has the roster to do it, it's easier to do so than it is to take away, say, a Paolo Banchero. See the Baylor game for an example of a team that figured out how to take Timme out of the game: largely as a function of being able to stop the drives by Gonzaga's guards, which took away Timme's easy baskets.

[accfanfrom1970]

Yeah, it takes something extraordinary to get me cheering for Baylor, but Timme succeeded.

Yeah, the one game I watched every time down the court after a bucket Timme had some antic on display...flexing, waving the arms, twirling the mustache. Literally every time he scored. I was so irritated I turned the channel. Hopefully he won't go off Friday night like that.

[DavidBenAkiva]

I very much agree. Stache and arrogance aside, I like Time’s game. Like, a lot. He reminds me of Duke players in the 90s and 00s who were great college players that didn’t make much of an NBA future (Wojo, Scheyer, etc). Timme scores at an elite level despite underwhelming athleticism. That’s honing in on your craft. Good for him.

I wonder if Timme gives DBR Hansborough vibes (elite scorer, under the rim player, no real NBA future) and that’s where some of the lack of respect comes from.

I suspect Duke will shut Holgrem down. But I also suspect Timme will drop 18+ on Duke.

Count me in the "respect Timme" crowd. He is earning a reputation as a showboat, so it'll be interesting to see how that plays going against Duke. It looks petty to flex after scoring on Alcorn State. I bet fans will eat it up when he does it against Duke.

What I hope will happen is that he is not as efficient. Sure, he'll get his points. But Duke can live with him getting 20 points on 18 FG attempts. He takes a lot of free throws, too. Making him less efficient while not fouling him is the key. Williams is going to have to be long and tall with his arms up. He can bother Timme just playing tall and not biting too much on all the fakes and counters.

[TheOldBattleship]

If Timme plays in a system that generates a lot of easy layups for him, and he hits those layups, then it's kind of irrelevant to say that it doesn't take a lot of talent to make those layups because he still gets them. And if you're going to say he is limiited because he doesn't rebound or block shots then you'd have to say Mark is also limited because he doesn't generate much offense at all other than lob dunks when his teammates create, and he has struggled to defend stronger guys. Anyways, we know that both teams have talented frontcourts and it's going to be a great matchup.

As for Gonzaga playing three games in five days, that's defintely a factor although the flip side is that they don't have to travel all week plus there's less of a time change adjustment for them.

Totally baffled by the thought in this thread that Timme is not the clear-cut best player in the country right now (to say nothing of the idea that he's not the clear-cut best player on Gonzaga(!?!)). The guy is an absolute monster: he's not going to wow you as a run-and-jump athlete (though he can get out and rumble in transition), but he's deceptively big and strong, he's incredibly nimble (seriously, his footwork offensively is just unbelievable), and despite playing mainly below the rim, he's the best pick and roll big in college basketball (and I don't think it's particularly close). His chemistry with Nembhard on the p&r is unbelievable. He's got amazing hands, his timing is unreal, and he's an automatic double-team generator against nearly anyone he plays against when he gets the ball in the post. He's not coming out of nowhere, either: it was clear two years ago that he was going to be an absolute force when he was stealing Filip Petrusev's minutes as a freshman during Petrusev's conference player of the year campaign.

Anyway, he's clearly (and literally; check the betting lines) the favorite to win NPOY. I think that the critique that he is limited because he mainly shoots layups created by others ignores how much those layups are actually created because of his footwork, timing, and ballskills after the catch. There's literally nobody in college basketball right now that's anywhere close to Timme in how many easy shots he generates. The Gonzaga guards are good, but they are not making all of this happen for him. If anything, it's the other way around: he sets the table for easy passes with his positioning and strength. He's certainly not a 100% perfect unbeatable player: you can still pick on him defensively a bit (though the way Gonzaga is constructed this year makes that HARD) if you get him switched out on a guard, and you can definitely get him in foul trouble. But the fact that exactly one team has been able to do that effectively in the past two years is telling, and I don't think there's anybody in the country this year with the level of guard play that that Baylor team had last year.

Also, with Timme and Holmgren on the court, my assumption is that Paolo guards Timme given the similar body types (and similar body types of Holmgren and Mark). This is problematic in more ways than one (energy, focus, foul trouble, etc.) so maybe Mark guards instead?

What I'm getting at is I actually think Paolo is more physically able to guard Timme, but he has a lot of other stuff on his plate whereas Mark is primarily a defense first guy. But I don't like the sound of Mark guarding Timme. That sounds like back cuts, easy layups, and fouls.

I'd be pretty shocked if Williams/John don't have nearly all the primary Timme minutes. Sticking either on Holmgren pulls them away from the bucket where they're much less comfortable or effective. And Mark's length to (hopefully...) get into some of the passing space Nembhard/Timme create with the pick and roll could be absolutely huge and in making life difficult in the post for Timmy. And, as you say, Paolo has too much offensive responsibility to risk getting into foul trouble with this matchup.

[AGDukesky]

I want to clarify that I respect Timme’s production and he is an excellent college player. He does draw many fouls by leaning into defenders and like Hanstravel gets the benefit of the doubt too often. However, he is a bit like Kevin Mchale around the basket which is hard to defend without reaching. His antics though are very off-putting and often occur after extremely routine plays. He will be a load Friday and I think Duke’s best strategy is to let him get his without fouling and to attack him when he is on defense.

[Stray Gator]

. . . This is a really talented Duke team. There are 4 guys on it that are looking at a future in the NBA as early as next season. For Gonzaga, there is only 1 guy that is a surefire NBA player, Holmgren. This will be the first matchup he'll face where an opposing frontline is just as tall and long as he is. Duke is going to have more talent on the floor. That talent responded under the bright lights of Madison Square Garden. They might not win against Gonzaga, but it will have a lot more to do with things like shooting and gameplan than it will experience.

I agree with your assessment -- Timme is a load, Holmgren is highly skilled, and Nembhard is a seasoned PG; but I believe Duke has more talent at more positions. And unlike last season, this Duke squad has had the benefit of an opportunity to get some experience on the court together and to develop some positive chemistry. To me, our guys already look a lot more comfortable out there than they did against Kentucky. On the whole, I don't think Gonzaga's edge in experience is any greater than Duke's edge in overall talent.

So I think that this game, like so many in March, is more or less a tossup, the outcome of which will depend on a handful of plays, a few shifts in momentum, and adjustments to officiating. The one edge that hasn't been mentioned, but that I believe favors Duke, is coaching. I have enormous respect for Mark Few, but I like K's feel for the flow of the game and ability to capitalize on personnel mismatches a little better. I won't be too disappointed if Gonzaga wins. But I won't be at all surprised if Duke prevails.

[Wander]

Totally baffled by the thought in this thread that Timme is not the clear-cut best player in the country right now

Anyway, he's clearly (and literally; check the betting lines) the favorite to win NPOY.

I was on board with "DBR is overlooking Timme too much" until this. Plenty of guys like Jaden Ivey, Johnny Juzang, and Paolo Banchero who are right there, no way Timme is "clear-cut" the single best player at the moment, although he is extremely good.

[jimsumner]

See the Baylor game for an example of a team that figured out how to take Timme out of the game: largely as a function of being able to stop the drives by Gonzaga's guards, which took away Timme's easy baskets.

I don't think Baylor had any great schematic insights. They just had the best group of perimeter defenders in recent college-basketball history. I would be beyond delighted if Moore, Keels and Roach can defend Gonzaga's guards as well as Butler, Mitchell, et. al did in the 2021 title game. But I don't think it will because Baylor "figured out" a template to beat Baylor but rather that they had the defenders to execute a plan that lots of other teams did not.

[luvdahops]

I don't think Baylor had any great schematic insights. They just had the best group of perimeter defenders in recent college-basketball history. I would be beyond delighted if Moore, Keels and Roach can defend Gonzaga's guards as well as Butler, Mitchell, et. al did in the 2021 title game. But I don't think it will because Baylor "figured out" a template to beat Baylor but rather that they had the defenders to execute a plan that lots of other teams did not.

Well, our perimeter defenders may not be on the level of Butler, Mitchell, et al, but Gonzaga no longer has Jalen Suggs, Joel Ayayi and Corey Kispert, either. Their current perimeter guys are quite good, to be sure, but a clear step down from the '21 Zags squad. Seems like a wash to me.

[moonpie23]

if we don't take a nap around 12 mins, i think we'll be in it with 5:00 to go...


remember, the zags BARELY got by ucla, and were blown out in the title game... (16 pts) after being favored by 5....

i'm not skeered of them...

[CDu]

If Timme plays in a system that generates a lot of easy layups for him, and he hits those layups, then it's kind of irrelevant to say that it doesn't take a lot of talent to make those layups because he still gets them.

It matters in the sense that - if you can contain their guards - you can stop Timme. See: Baylor, championship game. Baylor took away Gonzaga's ability to get downhill, and that basically took away Timme because he couldn't create his own offense.

And if you're going to say he is limiited because he doesn't rebound or block shots then you'd have to say Mark is also limited because he doesn't generate much offense at all other than lob dunks when his teammates create, and he has struggled to defend stronger guys. Anyways, we know that both teams have talented frontcourts and it's going to be a great matchup.

I agree that Williams is limited. He's limited in some of the same ways as Timme offensively (can't shoot, doesn't really create his own shots well, isn't overly strong physically). But he can do more than Timme (he rebounds, block shots, and because of his length can play above the rim offensively). He just happens to play on a team that doesn't utilize the pick and roll and has better scorers around him. But I think he's more talented overall than Timme, and if he was playing for Gonzaga he'd have similarly gaudy stats.
Conversely, if Timme was at Duke last year and perhaps this year, I don't think he'd be nearly as effective as he has been at Gonzaga.

In aggregate, I think Williams is more talented but in a less friendly system, and that seems to correspond with the general consensus about his draft stock.

[CDu]

I was on board with "DBR is overlooking Timme too much" until this. Plenty of guys like Jaden Ivey, Johnny Juzang, and Paolo Banchero who are right there, no way Timme is "clear-cut" the single best player at the moment, although he is extremely good.

Timme is definitely not the best player in college basketball. He might be the most accomplished returning player. But that isn't the same thing.

I don't think Baylor had any great schematic insights. They just had the best group of perimeter defenders in recent college-basketball history. I would be beyond delighted if Moore, Keels and Roach can defend Gonzaga's guards as well as Butler, Mitchell, et. al did in the 2021 title game. But I don't think it will because Baylor "figured out" a template to beat Baylor but rather that they had the defenders to execute a plan that lots of other teams did not.

A distinction that doesn't change much. But I agree. Baylor was able to defend in ways that most of Gonzaga's opponents last year couldn't.

Gonzaga isn't as good on the perimeter as they were last year (at least not yet), but they also haven't faced any really good defenses yet (Texas will get there eventually, but they aren't there yet). It remains to be seen if our defense will be good enough to slow down the perimeter and Holmgren and force Timme to create his own points or not.

[cato]

From a pure experience standpoint, Gonzaga isn't all that much older than Duke. Their top 8 players look like this in terms of years of experience:

SR: Bolton, Nembhard
JR: Timme, Watson
SO: Strawther
FR: Hickman, Holmgren, Sallis

Here's Duke:

SR: Baker, John
JR: Moore
SO: Roach, Williams
FR: Banchero, Griffin, Keels

Both teams rank in the bottom 50 in the nation in experience according to KenPom. The difference here is that the two seniors for Gonzaga start while the two seniors for Duke come off the bench.

Or to describe the difference in experience: Gonzaga has more players that have played more minutes, especially in the NCAAs.

[dukelifer]

Or to describe the difference in experience: Gonzaga has more players that have played more minutes, especially in the NCAAs.

More big game experience by a wide margin. And their best player seems to enjoy big games.

[Indoor66]

And our job is to be sure he doesn't enjoy this game.

[kidA]

https://youtu.be/sm3HH1JjYj4

Timmy!! Timme‼️‼️
The kid is a load. Anybody who doubts his dominance on the college level has not been paying attention. I think the plan ought to be let Timme get his, and shut everybody else down. Easier said than done, but trying to stop Timme is a recipe for foul trouble. Someone on this board compared him to Kevin McHale. That is a hell of a comparison and complement, but apt: you look at McHale and you might think corpse, but you don’t think elite athlete. Likewise with Timme (OK you might not think corpse, but you might think 70s porn star with that stash): you don’t look at him and think elite basketball athletes and yet night after night, against whoever shows up to play, many points. I’m excited as I think it should be a really good game, but put me on that Timme fan list. I hope he has a great game in a crushing loss

[chrishoke]

I'm worried that Timme will easily get Mark in foul trouble, as Mark has shown a propensity for leaving his feet on pump fakes.

[dukelifer]

https://youtu.be/sm3HH1JjYj4

Timmy!! Timme‼️‼️
The kid is a load. Anybody who doubts his dominance on the college level has not been paying attention. I think the plan ought to be let Timme get his, and shut everybody else down. Easier said than done, but trying to stop Timme is a recipe for foul trouble. Someone on this board compared him to Kevin McHale. That is a hell of a comparison and complement, but apt: you look at McHale and you might think corpse, but you don’t think elite athlete. Likewise with Timme (OK you might not think corpse, but you might think 70s porn star with that stash): you don’t look at him and think elite basketball athletes and yet night after night, against whoever shows up to play, many points. I’m excited as I think it should be a really good game, but put me on that Timme fan list. I hope he has a great game in a crushing loss

Timme is an excellent college player- and can dominate. We will learn a lot tonight against UCLA. I suspect they will have some plan against him and we will see if it works- including letting him get his.

[rsvman]

I agree with the last two posters. Williams vs Timme is a real negative for us. Williams is too jumpy and too often not in good position. Timme will eat that for breakfast.
I have not been as impressed with Chet Holmgren; I think he's a poor-man's Paolo Banchero.
Overall, though, this game goes through Timme, and I think we lose if Williams starts as his primary defender. Fortunately, we do have one bad, bad man on our team who is not afraid to mix it up in the paint. I would feed Timme a steady diet of Theo John. I would start Theo John, and tell him to continue his old- school Detroit Pistons' ways. See how Timme likes it.


Oh, and for the record, Holmgren is decidedly NOT more annoying than Timme. Few people are, though.

[Skydog]

The good news is that Timme isn’t a great ft shooter. 69% last season. A couple points worse so far this season.

Another interesting stat/prediction: Kenpom has Gonzaga beating UCLA 80-74. Guess what he predicts for the Duke game? Yep, Zags beating us 80-74. So apparently this season UCLA is the West Coast Duke Clone.