MBB: Duke v. Gonzaga (Fri, Nov 26, 10:30 PM, ESPN) Pre-Game and In-Game Thread

[Dukehk]

That holmgren kid is scary. Defensively he just changes every shot and blocks all the others.

They are big. We are going to need Theo, Banchero and Williams to be at their best and stay out of foul trouble.

I also hope we don't let nemhardt run riot like that. Roach and co. will need to put the clamps on him.

[simplyluvin]

Trying to find a silver lining to the game last night. Gonzaga was just dominant in early every facet except perhaps turnovers. UCLA does lack size, which we have. I remembered the Georgetown game in 1990 when we went against Mourning and Mutombo. I believe Coach K used the strategy of going right at these guys and it worked. Just a thought.

On D a little zone might not hurt.

[dukelifer]

The Zags are dominant right now - Holmgren is only going to get better. It will be interesting to see if Duke can hang with them. Clearly they can’t lose their poise like UCLA did and get far behind in opening minutes. But the effects of jet lag and the game hype does not bode well. A lot will depend on how Duke manages the start of the game. In recent games, Duke has let the other team dictate tempo. Not sure how this will go- but the Zags are on the top of the mountain right now.

[Native]

That holmgren kid is scary. Defensively he just changes every shot and blocks all the others.

They are big. We are going to need Theo, Banchero and Williams to be at their best and stay out of foul trouble.

I also hope we don't let nemhardt run riot like that. Roach and co. will need to put the clamps on him.

Purely from a physicality perspective, I think Mark is mobile enough to keep Holmgren in check if he can stay out of foul trouble.

My bigger worry is who draws Timme—I’m not sure if we have an answer when Holmgren and Timme are both on the floor.

And Nembhard impressed me the most last night, actually. Some of his finishes in transition were incredible.

[indy1duke]

Here are some random thoughts from the Zags/Bruins game.
UCLA was missing their starting center and that really hurt them as they looked small on the interior. I thought I heard that there was a bug going around the UCLA team. Very impressed with Nembhard. Not sure Roach can slow him down. That will be a key to the game and getting back in transition. It helps to shoot better than UCLA. Anton Watson is my nomination for the Tayman Domzalski award with four fouls in five minutes. I predict Holmgren suffers an injury this year and misses some games given his slight frame. The key is to get into his body on our drives. Refs are likely to call him for the foul.

[gumbomoop]

I actually think that the 3-hour time zone difference may have more of a negative impact on us that we can know

I think I heard Vitale say twice that Duke was already there. Surprised me. Any of you insiders know the travel plan?

[CameronDuke]

They practiced in Durham yesterday then flew to vegas. They got their last night. They’ll have two days of practice in vegas before the game Friday.

[CrazyNotCrazie]

They practiced in Durham yesterday then flew to vegas. They got their last night. They’ll have two days of practice in vegas before the game Friday.

As bad as the time of the game is (especially for us east coast fans) remember that Mondays game started after 9 in the east, so not that huge of a difference.

Not to put the cart before the horse, but speaking of travel, are they going from Vegas straight to Ohio? With the game ending very late Friday night and the OSU game Tuesday, it’s almost not worth going to Durham. I am strongly in favor of them going to class but best case they get to their Monday morning classes?

[freshmanjs]

I think I heard Vitale say twice that Duke was already there. Surprised me. Any of you insiders know the travel plan?

You don’t need to be an insider to know the travel plan. Just a person with instagram or Facebook.

[Wander]

Purely from a physicality perspective, I think Mark is mobile enough to keep Holmgren in check if he can stay out of foul trouble.

I'm scared about the Holmgren matchup... scared that Mark or Paolo will accidentally snap Holmgren in half. Basketball-wise, I think we'll be OK.

[Bluedog]

I'm scared about the Holmgren matchup... scared that Mark or Paolo will accidentally snap Holmgren in half. Basketball-wise, I think we'll be OK.

I know you're joking, but I feel like Chet is more resilient/tough than people give him credit for. Yes his physical appearance is a string bean, but it's not his first rodeo going against guys much heavier/bigger than him and he's held his own. We still should try to exploit any physical strength advantage we have, though, of course. But I don't expect Chet to shy away or wilt from it. As a gangly guy myself when I was that age (and almost impossible to gain weight no matter how much is eaten with that amount of exercise combined with simple genetics/build of the individual), I feel like standing up for the skinny dudes. 🙂

[mo.st.dukie]

Here are some random thoughts from the Zags/Bruins game.
UCLA was missing their starting center and that really hurt them as they looked small on the interior. I thought I heard that there was a bug going around the UCLA team. Very impressed with Nembhard. Not sure Roach can slow him down. That will be a key to the game and getting back in transition. It helps to shoot better than UCLA. Anton Watson is my nomination for the Tayman Domzalski award with four fouls in five minutes. I predict Holmgren suffers an injury this year and misses some games given his slight frame. The key is to get into his body on our drives. Refs are likely to call him for the foul.

I bet we'll see Keels and Moore guardimg Nembhard a lot. I think we actually match up fairly well with them physically, it's just going to be about execution and hitting shots.

[Saratoga2]

Williams has not played a lot of minutes in games so I would doubt he will play more than 25 minutes. If he is on Timme, will there be a time when Gonzaga exploits a matchup with Theo?

[ClemmonsDevil]

Duke has to physically impose their will on the defensive end. Mark can't guard Holmgren, but hopefully he can make Timme inefficient and he and John can stop Timme from setting up too close to the basket. Paolo will draw Holmgren and should be able to stay in front of him. Duke has to be physical with the Gonzaga guards and push them out onto the perimeter. Intriguing matchup here. Gonzaga and Duke are huge for modern college teams. Intrigued to see if Williams can make the matchup with Timme a wash.

[hallcity]

Banchero must have played against Holmgren in AAU ball and summer camps. (All-star games don't matter.) Does anyone know about their history? How did they fare against each other?

[Billy Dat]

UCLA didn't really show up last night, they certainly played like they were sick.

Two things stood out to me last night about Gonzaga, their defense and their pace. UCLA had a very hard time running their offense and the Zags were pushing hard off both makes and misses. The Citadel game serves as a decent warm up from the perspective of needing to get back quickly.

I am not worried about our physical match-up. I think we have the size and speed/quickness to go toe-to-toe.

Mark needs to bother Timme with his length, not foul, and not allow second shots...all very tall orders.
Paolo needs to try and disrupt Holmgren's playmaking, he's a very deft passer and is smart. On the other end, he needs to make him work and challenge him. I don't care if he blocks our first 3 shots, we need to keep taking it into his body.
I assume Keels will draw Nembhard, a fantastic challenge for a kid who sees himself as a lock down defender
Wendell on Stawther seems to advantage us
Jeremy has to make sure Bolton doesn't become the unlikely hero

Theo will come in on Timme. They bring some good young perimeter talent off the bench and we need to be able to match it, but this is definitely a game where the opponent isn't likely to go small.

I mostly worry about scoring. I am sure they'll try and make us beat them with outside shooting and that is not currently a strength.

I believe the KenPom line is Zags -7. That is probably fair. I find it hard to believe that we fall down big early and it's not a real fight.

[CDu]

Banchero must have played against Holmgren in AAU ball and summer camps. (All-star games don't matter.) Does anyone know about their history? How did they fare against each other?

They have faced a few times, and Holmgren has fared well. Banchero wasn't an overly physical player in high school, instead relying on his skill and finesse. It's still not a huge part of his game, although he did start to play some bully ball against the Citadel. So maybe he can do a bit more of it against Holmgren.

I think the matchups will largely be Holmgren vs Banchero (both ways) and Timme vs Williams/John (both ways). Those matchups line up best for both teams in terms of who their players are most comfortable defending.

It's going to be a really interesting game. Gonzaga creates size mismatches against most of their opponents, but that won't be the case against us. Similarly, we usually have a size advantage, but that won't be the case against them either. Both teams are typically much more talented than their opponent, which won't be the case either way here. I think we have a slight talent edge overall, but it's close. They have the slight experience edge, although neither team is wildly experienced.

Gonzaga will be favored and rightfully so, but I certainly think it's a game we can win.

[AGDukesky]

I did a quick search on Holmgren vs Banchero and the only stats I found were from the Iverson Classic. Chet’s team won and he scored 20 vs 15 for Banchero. I think it is more likely Paolo scores more Friday simply because he is Duke’s #1 option (at least I hope so). We really need Keels to play like he did against Kentucky because we will need all the points we can get against Gonzaga. Moore and Banchero should be good matchups but Keels has to start hitting perimeter shots more efficiently. I think the line is pretty close and think a 6-8 point loss is likely. Maybe our defense can disrupt them and our improved defensive rebounding will continue. Otherwise, I don’t trust our perimeter shooting enough to expect a win.

[dukelifer]

They have faced a few times, and Holmgren has fared well. Banchero wasn't an overly physical player in high school, instead relying on his skill and finesse. It's still not a huge part of his game, although he did start to play some bully ball against the Citadel. So maybe he can do a bit more of it against Holmgren.

I think the matchups will largely be Holmgren vs Banchero (both ways) and Timme vs Williams/John (both ways). Those matchups line up best for both teams in terms of who their players are most comfortable defending.

It's going to be a really interesting game. Gonzaga creates size mismatches against most of their opponents, but that won't be the case against us. Similarly, we usually have a size advantage, but that won't be the case against them either. Both teams are typically much more talented than their opponent, which won't be the case either way here. I think we have a slight talent edge overall, but it's close. They have the slight experience edge, although neither team is wildly experienced.

Gonzaga will be favored and rightfully so, but I certainly think it's a game we can win.

This is an impose your will type of game. Not sure that this Duke team is there yet- hence a huge learning experience. Duke can win by having a great shooting night but this will likely be a game of who get frustrated first and who responds better. Should be fun.

[FerryFor50]

I said earlier in the thread that we'll know more about Gonzaga when they play UCLA, and boy, do we know more now.

That game got away quick from UCLA and by the time they righted the ship, it was too late. They played pretty even with the Zags after going down 20, but that doesn't win you any style points.

Main issue with UCLA I saw was they simply missed shots from outside, while the Zags hit pretty much everything they threw up. They shot 56% from the field and 39% from 3, and in most of the game I watched, they weren't always wide open on those shots. They made tough baskets. Hard to say if that continues on Friday, but it's certainly a data point.

The Bruins couldn't get anything going inside when Holmgren was in. He bothered or blocked a lot of shots. But he does look like you can get him in the air pretty easily and draw fouls. I'll be interested in seeing Paolo/Keels/Moore driving into his body, as they're all a bunch of bowling balls and Holmgren, despite his best efforts, is still a bit of a bowling pin. I think Roach needs to avoid trying to drive unless it's to dump it off.

If Duke gets the same kinds of looks from 3 as UCLA and hits them at a better rate (12% for UCLA last night), then this game won't get away from them.

Duke will also need to contain the transition game of Gonzaga. They got a lot of run out baskets.

The Zags were also hitting some pretty long threes. We know from the Citadel game that Duke doesn't really guard those well yet, so hopefully the Zags shoot closer to or below their season average (35%, but was lower prior to last night) than what they did last night (39%).

I don't worry much about Nembhard. He played great last night, but that felt like an anomaly. Twice, his guy fell down (once they slipped, once they got tripped by their own guy) so he scored on wide open jumpers. And Moore/Keels/Roach should have enough physicality to slow him down and force him to look for others. I worry more about Bolton (who was limited by foul trouble) and Strawther. I think you'll see Roach on Bolton most of the game and Moore on Strawther. Keels on Nembhard.

Timme had a relatively quiet game, but he didn't need to do much since everyone else was going off. He did hit some contested hook shots/bank shots that were pretty well defended, so that kind of kills the "garbage points" theory. He's going to be annoyingly good against Duke. Remember how Hayden Brown carved them up? Well, Timme is a better Hayden Brown.

Holmgren is going to be the key, I think. Will he show off that same versatility against Duke as he did against UCLA? He seems to be a very confident player and won't shrink against the moment, but how will he do against guys as big as he is (Williams) or as skilled (Banchero)?

I think having John in for some minutes to wear him and/or Timme down with some down low banging will be important. Hopefully Timme doesn't get under the skin of our bigs with arms to the throat like he did with Clark to goad him into a F1.

At any rate, I'm going into this one with low expectations. Hopefully they have a good showing, but getting their butts kicked might be good for the long run of the season, so I won't be sad if that happens.