MBB: Duke v. Gonzaga (Fri, Nov 26, 10:30 PM, ESPN) Pre-Game and In-Game Thread

[dukelifer]

I agree with the last two posters. Williams vs Timme is a real negative for us. Williams is too jumpy and too often not in good position. Timme will eat that for breakfast.
I have not been as impressed with Chet Holmgren; I think he's a poor-man's Paolo Banchero.
Overall, though, this game goes through Timme, and I think we lose if Williams starts as his primary defender. Fortunately, we do have one bad, bad man on our team who is not afraid to mix it up in the paint. I would feed Timme a steady diet of Theo John. I would start Theo John, and tell him to continue his old- school Detroit Pistons' ways. See how Timme likes it.


Oh, and for the record, Holmgren is decidedly NOT more annoying than Timme. Few people are, though.

Theo will be a better matchup and probably some Paolo. I suspect Mark will cover Holmgren. Duke may even need Bates Jones for a few minutes.

[Skydog]

Williams and Timme are polar opposites. Williams is an elite athlete with meh technique while Timme is a meh athlete with elite technique. I think at this point in their careers Timme is likely to chew up Williams. Hope to be dead wrong.

[kako]

I don't intend to be confrontational, but I don't agree with a lot of the points you make here.

I'll start with where we agree. Gonzaga can and, all things being equal, probably will beat Duke. In fact, a lot of people in this thread have said the same thing. It might even be the majority viewpoint. They did play in the National Title game last season, after all.

That being said... (shortened for space)

So if you think all these things, then I'm wondering why you think Gonzaga will probably win, as you have stated. You mentioned "... shooting and gameplan", but that could indicate that you think K will be outcoached, and that it all depends who hits their shots. The latter is always true, that's a basketball gods thing. But I doubt K will be clearly outcoached. So just wondering...?

I'd rebutt a lot of things you wrote, but it would be perceived by many here as Duke hate. A lot of people on this board are either all in or all out ("Duke's great - hang the banner now!" or "Duke sucks, they will get blown out in the 1st round!"). Some here seem to be thinking that by saying Gonzaga will likely win, those statements make Duke out to be some kind of weak DII team - not at all. Duke is talented and well-coached. I just can see this Duke team losing to a talented and well-coached Gonzaga team for the reasons I wrote. I hope I am wrong. I like UCLA more than Gonzaga, but I really want the Zags to blow out the Bruins and maybe go into the Duke game overconfident.

One note that I feel the need to point out - Duke had trouble with Army, Campbell and The Citadel running methodical well-coached offenses - the latter's was very different than the first two, but they all ran their offenses very well. For long stretches, Duke couldn't shake them. Sure they won going away in 2/3 cases, because they have much greater talent. That talent margin is not so large against Gonzaga.

One last thing - normally I would be happy to make a gentleman's bet that Nembhard will play in the NBA. As I stated, he won't be a star. But I watched him at Florida and Gonzaga, and I feel he can play. It may take a G-League or overseas tour, and then only come on a 2-way, but he's got the talent to play. But that being said, once I bet on something, I tend to root for it to happen. In this case, since Duke's playing the Zags this week and may again play them in the post-season, I'll pass. I would not want his star to shine due to play in a Duke game, and betting on the opposition seems traitorous.

9F

[DavidBenAkiva]

So if you think all these things, then I'm wondering why you think Gonzaga will probably win, as you have stated. You mentioned "... shooting and gameplan", but that could indicate that you think K will be outcoached, and that it all depends who hits their shots. The latter is always true, that's a basketball gods thing. But I doubt K will be clearly outcoached. So just wondering...?

I'd rebutt a lot of things you wrote, but it would be perceived by many here as Duke hate. A lot of people on this board are either all in or all out ("Duke's great - hang the banner now!" or "Duke sucks, they will get blown out in the 1st round!"). Some here seem to be thinking that by saying Gonzaga will likely win, those statements make Duke out to be some kind of weak DII team - not at all. Duke is talented and well-coached. I just can see this Duke team losing to a talented and well-coached Gonzaga team for the reasons I wrote. I hope I am wrong. I like UCLA more than Gonzaga, but I really want the Zags to blow out the Bruins and maybe go into the Duke game overconfident.

One note that I feel the need to point out - Duke had trouble with Army, Campbell and The Citadel running methodical well-coached offenses - the latter's was very different than the first two, but they all ran their offenses very well. For long stretches, Duke couldn't shake them. Sure they won going away in 2/3 cases, because they have much greater talent. That talent margin is not so large against Gonzaga.

One last thing - normally I would be happy to make a gentleman's bet that Nembhard will play in the NBA. As I stated, he won't be a star. But I watched him at Florida and Gonzaga, and I feel he can play. It may take a G-League or overseas tour, and then only come on a 2-way, but he's got the talent to play. But that being said, once I bet on something, I tend to root for it to happen. In this case, since Duke's playing the Zags this week and may again play them in the post-season, I'll pass. I would not want his star to shine due to play in a Duke game, and betting on the opposition seems traitorous.

9F

I'm not a better anyway.

One thing here. You wrote: "Duke had trouble with Army, Campbell and The Citadel". This is mostly wrong.

Against Army, Duke gave up 0.718 pts per possession. It was Army's worst offensive performance of the year.
Against Campbell, Duke gave up 0.945 points per possession. It was Campbell's worst offensive performance of the year, although not so bad. Duke played ok on defense in that one. Duke was meh on offense.
Against The Citadel, Duke gave up 1.12 pts per possession, by far the worst defensive performance of the season. That was almost exclusively due to making some ridiculous shots.

I guess you were correct about 1 1/2 of those games. It can be frustrating when a team hangs around for a while, but the sum total of Duke's performance to date has been thoroughly outplaying the opponents.

[CameronDuke]

This will be Gonzaga’s 3rd game in 5 days in the T-Mobile Arena.

Will they have an advantage shooting/playing there that frequently over Duke who will be playing their 1st game there this week?

[indy1duke]

First, kudos to the great posts in this thread. Many are spot on and thought-provoking.

There is much similarity between Timme and Hanstravel. One important difference is that we will only see Timme once or twice this season and not likely ever again. They were both clever and excellent, if annoying, college basketball players. I don’t see an NBA career for Timme. I expect Coach K to allow Timme to make his two point baskets with the caveat that Mark or Theo don’t foul. The focus of our defense will be to clamp down on the other Zags.

I really like the Duke defense. I expect Duke’s defensive intensity and skills to remind Gonzaga of Baylor’s effort. One has to go back several years to see this defensive potential from a Duke team. I like the way Keels, Moore and Roach make it very difficult for opposing guards to turn the corner. Moore and Keels are very physical. We really don’t have a weak link on defense.

One subject not covered on this thread is how Gonzaga will defend Duke. I am not familiar enough with this Gonzaga team to hazard a guess, but perhaps someone can step up on this question.

[Duke79UNLV77]

For the game tonight, don't they know it's my bedtime already? Less talk, more rock!

Finally started. So far, Holmgren reminds me of freshman Ingram.

[OldDog]

I'd be quite surprised if Williams was on anyone other than Timme - at least as the primary assignment. I don't think he can guard Holmgren well, as Holmgren is more mobile and perimeter-oriented. Conversely, I think Banchero can at least competently guard Holmgren.

I do not agree with this. Holmgren is a quicker athlete than Timme, but Timme moves more fluidly on the court. He is a threat to score off the mid post or driving to the basket much more than Holmgren is. While Holmgren has been advertised as a unicorn I don’t think he’s much of a threat off the dribble at this point in his career.

I do see the point about drawing Mark away from the basket with Holmgren though. I definitely don’t think that mark vs holmgren is a great matchup but I really don’t think mark can guard Timme with the way Timme moves. Hope I’m wrong though.

[OldDog]

Gonzaga looking scary good…

[SkyBrickey]

I like this matchup for Duke. I think we have advantages all over the floor. I expect us to play our best game of the year and announce to the world that Duke is the team to beat this year.

[Steven43]

I like this matchup for Duke. I think we have advantages all over the floor. I expect us to play our best game of the year and announce to the world that Duke is the team to beat this year.

I’ll have what he’s having! 🍺

[brlftz]

I’d be shocked if we see Williams on Holmgren. Keeping Paolo out of foul trouble is important and Holmgren’s game seems a lot less likely to generate foul trouble than Timme’s. I think we’ll see a steady diet of Mark and Theo on Timme. I also think Paolo will relish the challenge of going up against his main rival for the #1 pick.

[simplyluvin]

UCLA is shooting very poorly. I think the Zags interior D has the bruins a little rattled, and it’s keeping them from getting into any rhythm. Bruins also have done poorly in transition.

Feels like Mark on Holmgren and Paolo on Timme might be best on D. Paolo can’t foul. If we get back on D and shoot well from 3 we can win. It will be an real test of effort and intensity for 40 min. Mid-range jumpers might be there too. We’ve got to pick our spots.

[heyman25]

Gonzaga should have put this game away ages ago. They are letting UCLA hang around. Our guards are going to need to contain Nembhard. He has been the best player in this Gonzaga UCLA matchup. Glad Dickie V is back, but very glad I will not hear him Friday night.Are you kidding me. Duke plays good defense and rebounds I like our chances. Banchero, Moore and Keels have to score. Mark Williams could be an X Factor.

[Steven43]

Gonzaga should have put this game away ages ago. They are letting UCLA hang around.

Hmm, not so sure about that. UCLA never got closer than 16 points in the second half. This was a blowout, start to finish.

[uh_no]

I like this matchup for Duke. I think we have advantages all over the floor. I expect us to play our best game of the year and announce to the world that Duke is the team to beat this year.

I'm having what she's having!

[kako]

I watched the Nova-UCLA game and thought the world of UCLA after that game. That was a game of two heavyweights. UCLA's mental toughness to come back late in the 2nd, albeit at home, was key.

Gonzaga took the Bruins and flushed them down the drain after 2 minutes. UCLA was never, never in this game after that. UCLA is not the Little Sisters of the Poor, they are a FF contender. I'm on the West Coast and actually watched Gonzaga play vs. CMU last night. Sure, they blew the Chippewas out, they were supposed to. But how they handled the Bruins was stunning, even early in the season.

5 thoughts...

1. Gonzaga, as usual, plays as a team. Not individual stars. I think this comes from the recruiting strategy of not recruiting definite 1ADs. Nembhart was the key to today's game, though guys like Timme, Holmgren and Strawther had their moments. But this team shares the wealth. They have played 6 games and have had 5 different leading scorers.

2. UCLA kept their starters in long past I would have. I think Cronin was trying to send a message to his team - this is what it's like to be embarrassed on national TV. Jaquez lead the team in scoring, but man he threw up a lot of shots, most contested or just wild shots because he felt he was open. Gonzaga's D played great.

3. 1st intangible note - in the 2nd half, Tiger Williams laid an obvious intentional foul on Strawther going up for a layup. All the Zags immediately ran over to Strawther and calmed him down. Veteran team move. This is a team that won't beat itself because they understand the game and police themselves. 2nd intangible note - Gonzaga travels well. I see them almost every year in person when they play Santa Clara, and there's always more Gonzaga fans than Santa Clara fans. It looks like Vegas was overrun with Zag red and blue, so on Friday, this will feel like a road game for Duke. Remember, there's nothing much to do in Spokane except watch Gonzaga, so that's what they do.

4. Holmgren was really a force defensively with the blocks. But one play offensively for him said it all. A coast-to-coast layup when the UCLA defense was set. Bolton and Timme set great picks to clear him, but the guy has a handle and touch. You could blame the Bruin defense, but I think it was more the setup and the player.

5. What can Duke do to beat Gonzaga? I say, don't try anything strange. K shouldn't show any uncommon cards. Play them straight up. No zone, no full court press, don't get over-physical. Perhaps crash the boards more with no run outs (looking at you, Banchero), but don't do anything crazy. If Duke gets a whoopin' like UCLA and Texas got, fine. Pull out the wild cards in March or April, when it will matter. Because right now, Gonzaga looks like the team to beat. Duke is Duke, and Duke doesn't really care what happens in November. March and April is money time. But like I said in a previous post, maybe, just maybe, Gonzaga will now get overconfident, and against Duke they could have a let down (please!).

9F

[gep]

This will be Gonzaga’s 3rd game in 5 days in the T-Mobile Arena.

Will they have an advantage shooting/playing there that frequently over Duke who will be playing their 1st game there this week?

I don't know... but I was at the Duke/UNLV game in Dec 2016, which was, I believe, the first college basketball game in T-Mobile. Grayson had 34 points, and Duke won 94-45. So hopefully not a big factor for shooting, unlike recent MSG. I think the fans were 50/50 Duke/UNLV. The Duke contingent was loud and strong...

[Jim3k]

I began watching the Zag-UCLA game several minutes into the second half, so it was already over from a practical standpoint. Still, it seemed to me that UCLA had no real game plan. It devolved into one-on-one hero ball or find the open three man. Open three man is a good plan if you hit, but...they couldn't. The rest of the time was find a lane if you can, drive and try to draw a foul. Not viable.

There seemed to be no discipline. Even their defense seemed disorganized. I know that Gonzaga's big men presented serious problems, but jeez!... UCLA didn't have a serious plan for that either.

When we meet the Zags on Friday, I hope we don't lose our poise like that. Not sure our bigs can match up defensively, but I'm not convinced that their bigs can match up defensively either. We can certainly switch better than UCLA showed, but that may not be good enough. I think we can hold Nembhard back and I don't think they can hold back Moore. Whether we can handle one of Timme and Holmgren will be the question. But it's not an easy calculus. They will need to stop one of Banchero or Williams in order to control the boards. Neither Holmgren nor Williams has ever faced someone like the other. Holmgren has an outside shooting skill that Williams won't try to defend and will rely on a switch, but when Holmgren steps out the Devils should be able to fill whatever space he left. And I think Timme will have his hands full defending Banchero, particularly if Paolo's outside shots are falling. Offensively, Banchero should be able to beat either of their bigs based on quickness alone. Timme will be a load for any of our defensive guys; maybe John can be effective there. But I don't think Timme will do what Tshiebwe did.

I actually think that the 3-hour time zone difference may have more of a negative impact on us that we can know. Still, if played intensely from the start, this game will be very close. But if so, it will be a nip and tuck ending.

I think we can win this. Our guard and wing play is a bit better; but the front line will be make or break.

[uh_no]

I began watching the Zag-UCLA game several minutes into the second half, so it was already over from a practical standpoint. Still, it seemed to me that UCLA had no real game plan. It devolved into one-on-one hero ball or find the open three man. Open three man is a good plan if you hit, but...they couldn't. The rest of the time was find a lane if you can, drive and try to draw a foul. Not viable.

There seemed to be no discipline. Even their defense seemed disorganized. I know that Gonzaga's big men presented serious problems, but jeez!... UCLA didn't have a serious plan for that either.

Their coach is mick cronin, and you find this surprising