MBB: Duke v. Gonzaga (Fri, Nov 26, 10:30 PM, ESPN) Pre-Game and In-Game Thread

[TKG]

While we suggest that the Zags advantages are only at the margin, in big games it is the marginal that often decides the contest. So, while the Zags might be just a bit older and have been in only a few big games, they are older and have been in more big games than us. There is value to that. Baker and John, our elder statesmen, do not have that same experience. KY might have better individual talent, I would argue that Gonzaga is a better “team” (have at it, CDu, what do the advanced stats show?) 😀. Now, if this game were being played in Feb/March I might have a different opinion but given that it is November, I think our margin for error is razor thin.

[CDu]

Timme is the NPOY favorite and scored 37 points on 15-19 shooting against top-10 Texas. I'm not sure why everyone keeps underestimating him just because he looks goofy and isn't a projected lottery pick. There's a not-small chance that Mark gets completely taken out of this game and plays 10 minutes. So I have to strongly disagree with the above statement.

It has nothing to do with looks. And when discussing talent, the fact that he's not a projected first round pick is kind of the point. Williams is more talented. Timme shoots mostly uncontested layups and is extremely opportunistic, and plays in a system that emphasizes the role man, so he gets lots of those layup attempts. But he's a below-the-rim player who doesn't shoot well away from the rim and doesn't have a lot of post moves. About 2/3 of his shots are at the rim, and over half of those are assisted. He doesn't rebound, he doesn't block shots. He's a smart player and a good finisher in the pick and roll and plays in a really nice system for him. But in terms of pure talent, he's just not that talented.

As for his 37 point game against Texas, a few caveats:
1. Again, look at the shots he took.
2. Texas is undersized.
3. Texas was overrated, at least in terms of where they were coming into the season. Note that they beat Northern Colorado by just 13 in their next game. It's a team in transition with a new coach, a totally new system (going from Shaka Smart's system to Chris Beard's system is a MASSIVE change), and a ton of new faces in new roles. I think they'll eventually get to be pretty good, but I don't think they're really a top-10 team right now.

Timme really shouldn't be the NPoY favorite (and I doubt he actually is the favorite, although he's certainly in discussion). I don't even think he's the best player on Gonzaga.

[FerryFor50]

While we suggest that the Zags advantages are only at the margin, in big games it is the marginal that often decides the contest. So, while the Zags might be just a bit older and have been in only a few big games, they are older and have been in more big games than us. There is value to that. Baker and John, our elder statesmen, do not have that same experience. KY might have better individual talent, I would argue that Gonzaga is a better “team” (have at it, CDu, what do the advanced stats show?) 😀. Now, if this game were being played in Feb/March I might have a different opinion but given that it is November, I think our margin for error is razor thin.

This early in the season, it's really hard to say which teams are better. Both teams are undefeated. Both teams have one quality opponent.

I think we'll know more about Gonzaga after tonight's UCLA game (which, by the way, playing a top 5 team a few days prior is more of a disadvantage for the Zags IMO)

I don't put a ton of stock into if a player has played a huge game last season or not and that only really applies to Timme and Nembard in this case anyway. Watson was a "give the others a breather" guy and played about 10 minutes in big games.

No one else on the Zags was playing in big games for Gonzaga last season - they were either watching from the bench or on other teams. In the overtime game against UCLA, the Zags only played 7 guys and only 5 had more than 10 minutes. In the title game, same story except guys like Strawther got a minute at the end of the game in the blowout.

[Billy Dat]

I think we'll know more about Gonzaga after tonight's UCLA game (which, by the way, playing a top 5 team a few days prior is more of a disadvantage for the Zags IMO).

Seeing that we'll be their 3rd game in 5 days, I tend to agree. I am hoping for an all out war tonight where Gonzaga's primary guys have to play a lot of minutes to take some juice out of those legs. Their rotation guys generally played half the game or less last night.

Timme is a crafty guy and I respect his low post repertoire more than CDu. While I don't think he's Kevin McHale, he is really smart about playing angles and getting his body in position to score or be fouled.

[TKG]

Is Few taking a page from K’s early season playbook by scheduling two games in a short period that might simulate an Elite 8 or Final 4 scenario?

[budwom]

Play well, hopefully win, if not get vicious revenge in March or April.

[CDu]

Play well, hopefully win, if not get vicious revenge in March or April.

Yeah, I think we're playing this game with house money. We're the underdog, there are no national expectations of us given last year's debacle, and the expectations for Gonzaga are through the roof.

It's a good opportunity for this young team to test its mettle against a potential Final Four team in a neutral setting with a tournament feel. It's not a game we "need" to win, because ultimately there is so much development still to be had and it isn't even December.

Hopefully we play well. Hopefully we win. If we do, the expectations shift dramatically for this group. If not, hopefully we are in a tight game, in which case I'd still say that expectations increase.

But regardless, it'll be an opportunity for this young and relatively untested team to get its feet wet in a Final Four type atmosphere.

[MChambers]

Timme is a crafty guy and I respect his low post repertoire more than CDu. While I don't think he's Kevin McHale, he is really smart about playing angles and getting his body in position to score or be fouled.

Sounds like Mark Alarie without the jump shot and with really annoying facial hair.

[AGDukesky]

I hope Gonzaga is coming off a blowout win over UCLA and underestimates Duke (I know not likely) rather than coming off a loss

[AGDukesky]

I agree that Timme is not a big talent but he knows how to use his body to get off shots and draw fouls. I think Duke fans will be very annoyed watching the game and all the garbage points he scores. He should get fouls defending our guys but will likely be the one drawing the fouls…

[Billy Dat]

Is Few taking a page from K’s early season playbook by scheduling two games in a short period that might simulate an Elite 8 or Final 4 scenario?

From what I understand, the Gonzaga v UCLA Final Four game created such a buzz that Few and Mick Cronin decided to get a rematch back on the books as soon as possible. Tonight's game was not scheduled until sometime earlier this year, way later than pre-conference games are typically nailed down.

How it got tied into "The Empire Classic", which used to be Coaches v Cancer and a bunch of other iterations, I am not sure. But, knowing he had Duke at TMobile in Vegas, it wouldn't surprise me if Gonzaga and UCLA approached the Empire Classic and made it all happen.

[CDu]

Timme is a crafty guy and I respect his low post repertoire more than CDu. While I don't think he's Kevin McHale, he is really smart about playing angles and getting his body in position to score or be fouled.

Just to be clear, I am not saying Timme is a schlub. He's a talented player, and one of his talents is his craftiness/savvy. But he's pretty limited in what he does well: he doesn't rebound, doesn't block shots or get steals, and can't shoot.

He's sort of like a "system QB". On a team with a great offensive line and good receiving weapons, certain QBs can run a system really well. But outside of that system they aren't nearly as effective. Timme is that kind of player. He knows Gonzaga's system well and is good at finding pockets of space in the pick and roll game. And Gonzaga's offense really emphasizes the pick and roll game. So he gets a TON of easy looks. But he's not a guy you dump the ball down low to and have him go to work to create his own points. It's predominantly putbacks and dumpoffs for layups/dunks.

Which is a testament to the system Few runs as well as the guards who run it. Last year, with Suggs, Nembhard, and Ayayi creating the offense, Timme feasted. This year, it's more Nembhard but also Holmgren creating the offense.

I agree that Timme is not a big talent but he knows how to use his body to get off shots and draw fouls. I think Duke fans will be very annoyed watching the game and all the garbage points he scores. He should get fouls defending our guys but will likely be the one drawing the fouls…

This exactly. Timme is far from a stiff. But he gets a TON of garbage buckets.

[kako]

I'm really looking forward to this game. But my take, which I'm sure some (many?) will argue, is that Duke probably loses this game. I'll be the voice of the contrarian here. On the experience front in big games, I think Gonzaga has it all over Duke. Baker is the only historical Duke player on the team that's even stepped on a NCAA tourney court, and John has played one game (Marquette lost in the 1st round in 2019, a shellacking against Ja Morant and Murray State). The Zags run an extremely well-coached system, which is ingrained to them as Duke's is to Duke. Timme's no POY like Zion, but he's still damn, damn good. Nembhard, the former UF transfer, is a senior PG playing very well. He's NBA talent (not a star, but could play in the Association). And the Zags repeatedly have younger players "grow up" in their system, then shine in their upperclass years. Few has shown he's a great coach of such talent. The Zags are also setting up camp in Vegas and will be well-acclimated. Duke is still a very young team, coming off a no-tourney year (and therefore no extra practices, no neutral court experiences, etc.), and have shown weaknesses this to lesser teams with methodical systems. Gonzaga will not have any fear of Duke whatsoever. I'm sure they believe they are the better team. The last Zag game was at the Maui Invitational against the Zion/Barrett Duke game, and the Zags won then. No reason for them to think they can't so do now. And if UCLA beats the Zags tonight (which really could happen), look for Gonzaga to focus and seek retribution Friday.

That being said, once the ball goes up I will of course root hard for Duke. Duke has a chance to win, of course. And if they do, great! But if they do, then I worry about a let down versus Ohio State. The Buckeyes are good, and the game's in Columbus. And this could be accused of loser talk in advance, but really, losing to Gonzaga would be a good learning experience. It would show the players what work they need to do against the best. Winning in November is nice, but winning in March/April is what matters.

9F

[Wander]

I think there's lots of underestimating Duke here. We're ranked 5, we're a legitimate national championship contender. Not saying we'll win (Gonzaga deserves to be favored), but I don't view us as some cute underdog.

[UrinalCake]

If Timme plays in a system that generates a lot of easy layups for him, and he hits those layups, then it's kind of irrelevant to say that it doesn't take a lot of talent to make those layups because he still gets them. And if you're going to say he is limiited because he doesn't rebound or block shots then you'd have to say Mark is also limited because he doesn't generate much offense at all other than lob dunks when his teammates create, and he has struggled to defend stronger guys. Anyways, we know that both teams have talented frontcourts and it's going to be a great matchup.

As for Gonzaga playing three games in five days, that's defintely a factor although the flip side is that they don't have to travel all week plus there's less of a time change adjustment for them.

[OldDog]

While I agree that Timme is opportunistic, there is a substantial amount of respect lacking here. He is a skilled big man. Timme can face up in the mid post and he also has extremely good footwork with his back to the basket. Yes he does play under the rim, but he has craftiness and skill to boot. Mark is a fast runner, especially for his size, but is not extremely quick laterally. He also has the tendency to be clumsy and out of position... just the type of things that Timme takes advantage of. I'm extremely worried about Timme giving Mark a head fake or two and getting two quick fouls on him.

Also, with Timme and Holmgren on the court, my assumption is that Paolo guards Timme given the similar body types (and similar body types of Holmgren and Mark). This is problematic in more ways than one (energy, focus, foul trouble, etc.) so maybe Mark guards instead?

What I'm getting at is I actually think Paolo is more physically able to guard Timme, but he has a lot of other stuff on his plate whereas Mark is primarily a defense first guy. But I don't like the sound of Mark guarding Timme. That sounds like back cuts, easy layups, and fouls.

[OldDog]

I also want to go on the record to say that Chet Holmgren is more annoying than Timme

[DavidBenAkiva]

I'm really looking forward to this game. But my take, which I'm sure some (many?) will argue, is that Duke probably loses this game. I'll be the voice of the contrarian here. On the experience front in big games, I think Gonzaga has it all over Duke. Baker is the only historical Duke player on the team that's even stepped on a NCAA tourney court, and John has played one game (Marquette lost in the 1st round in 2019, a shellacking against Ja Morant and Murray State). The Zags run an extremely well-coached system, which is ingrained to them as Duke's is to Duke. Timme's no POY like Zion, but he's still damn, damn good. Nembhard, the former UF transfer, is a senior PG playing very well. He's NBA talent (not a star, but could play in the Association). And the Zags repeatedly have younger players "grow up" in their system, then shine in their upperclass years. Few has shown he's a great coach of such talent. The Zags are also setting up camp in Vegas and will be well-acclimated. Duke is still a very young team, coming off a no-tourney year (and therefore no extra practices, no neutral court experiences, etc.), and have shown weaknesses this to lesser teams with methodical systems. Gonzaga will not have any fear of Duke whatsoever. I'm sure they believe they are the better team. The last Zag game was at the Maui Invitational against the Zion/Barrett Duke game, and the Zags won then. No reason for them to think they can't so do now. And if UCLA beats the Zags tonight (which really could happen), look for Gonzaga to focus and seek retribution Friday.

That being said, once the ball goes up I will of course root hard for Duke. Duke has a chance to win, of course. And if they do, great! But if they do, then I worry about a let down versus Ohio State. The Buckeyes are good, and the game's in Columbus. And this could be accused of loser talk in advance, but really, losing to Gonzaga would be a good learning experience. It would show the players what work they need to do against the best. Winning in November is nice, but winning in March/April is what matters.

9F

I don't intend to be confrontational, but I don't agree with a lot of the points you make here.

I'll start with where we agree. Gonzaga can and, all things being equal, probably will beat Duke. In fact, a lot of people in this thread have said the same thing. It might even be the majority viewpoint. They did play in the National Title game last season, after all.

That being said, this particular Gonzaga roster is just as new and fresh-faced as Duke in many ways. Rasir Bolton has never played in the NCAA Tournament when he was at Penn State or Iowa State. The other Gonzaga freshmen haven't been the NCAA Tournament, obviously. Julian Strawther played a total of 14 minutes in the NCAA Tournament as a freshman, 9 of which came in the 1st round against Norfolk State. He played a total of 2 minutes in the Elite 8 and beyond. Combined, both Joey Baker and Theo John have more NCAA Tournament experience than the sum of half of the regulars Gonzaga will play on Friday. The only rotation players Gonzaga has left from last season are Timme, Nembhard, and Watson. At least Moore, Roach, and Williams have ACC Tournament experience as well as experience playing on a big stage on a neutral court. Wendell started games in the Champions Classic against Kansas as a freshman and Kentucky this year as well as the Empire Classic at MSG as a freshman. Those were not NCAA Tournament games, but they were very similar environments to what the team will see on Friday night.

Nembhard is very unlikely to be an NBA player. He would have left for the pros after last season if he had a future in the NBA. He's a good passer and defender, but he's not a scorer and not a shooter. He's not elite in any one area to the point that he'll get a look from an NBA team. If he does make it to the NBA, it will be as a 2nd or 3rd PG for a couple of seasons.

I admire what Mark Few has built at Gonzaga, but let's not lose sight of the fact that Duke also has stars grow up in their system. Wendell Moore is exhibit A. His play this season is opening eyes, both in the college and NBA ranks. If he continues on his current pace - which has been incredibly consistent I might note - he will be an All-American by the end of the season and quite possibly the ACC POTY if Paolo doesn't earn it. How many predicted that from him just a month ago? Matthew Hurt, for whatever flaws he has, saw significant improvement between his freshman and sophomore seasons. Mark Williams is a guy that is improving, like Jeremy Roach. Luke Kennard had a huge leap from freshman to sophomore season, as did Grayson Allen. When the players decide to stay, they grow at Duke, too. Gonzaga doesn't have a special sauce that only they brew.

You mention that Duke has shown weaknesses to lesser teams. I know they allowed 18 3's to The Citadel, but did you check the final score? Duke won by 26. They beat Army by 26, Gardner-Webb by 40 and Lafayette by 33. They did sort of struggle with Campbell and "only" won by 11. That Campbell team is 3-1, picked to finish 2nd in their conference this season, and ranked a lot higher in KenPom (162) and T-Rank than all but 1 opponent (Texas) Gonzaga has faced this season (the next highest has been Bellarmine at 187 with the other three all being in the 300's).

This is a really talented Duke team. There are 4 guys on it that are looking at a future in the NBA as early as next season. For Gonzaga, there is only 1 guy that is a surefire NBA player, Holmgren. This will be the first matchup he'll face where an opposing frontline is just as tall and long as he is. Duke is going to have more talent on the floor. That talent responded under the bright lights of Madison Square Garden. They might not win against Gonzaga, but it will have a lot more to do with things like shooting and gameplan than it will experience.

[jimsumner]

J



This exactly. Timme is far from a stiff. But he gets a TON of garbage buckets.

You don't get style points people. A "garbage" bucket is still worth two points.

[flyingdutchdevil]

If Timme plays in a system that generates a lot of easy layups for him, and he hits those layups, then it's kind of irrelevant to say that it doesn't take a lot of talent to make those layups because he still gets them. And if you're going to say he is limiited because he doesn't rebound or block shots then you'd have to say Mark is also limited because he doesn't generate much offense at all other than lob dunks when his teammates create, and he has struggled to defend stronger guys. Anyways, we know that both teams have talented frontcourts and it's going to be a great matchup.

As for Gonzaga playing three games in five days, that's defintely a factor although the flip side is that they don't have to travel all week plus there's less of a time change adjustment for them.

I very much agree. Stache and arrogance aside, I like Time’s game. Like, a lot. He reminds me of Duke players in the 90s and 00s who were great college players that didn’t make much of an NBA future (Wojo, Scheyer, etc). Timme scores at an elite level despite underwhelming athleticism. That’s honing in on your craft. Good for him.

I wonder if Timme gives DBR Hansborough vibes (elite scorer, under the rim player, no real NBA future) and that’s where some of the lack of respect comes from.

I suspect Duke will shut Holgrem down. But I also suspect Timme will drop 18+ on Duke.