This Week in the ACC - 11/22-28

[JasonEvans]

Given how good Duke looks and how bad the ACC is, I think 25% for losing 5 or more ACC games is a little too high.

Duke will likely lose a few ACC games, but if we lose 5+, Duke has taken a few steps back.

Pomeroy projects Duke will lose exactly 5 ACC games. He expects us to go 24-7 on the season, so my projection that you feel is too pessimistic is pretty significantly more optimistic than what the guru of projections seems to think.

It is hard to put our head around it, but if Duke was a 90% favorite to win every single ACC game, we'd lose 2 ACC games, on average, over the course of the season.

Pomeroy gives Duke a 0.2% chance of going undefeated on the season.

[CDu]

Fearless predictions:

I expect us to lose the first game with Gonzaga (25% chance of a win). I don't think we are consistent enough yet to beat them.

I also expect us to roll into the NCAA tournament with 4 losses (50%) and a 2 seed (50%). The 1 seed in our bracket will not be happy. The 3 seed will be even less happy.

Odds of making the final four, 50%. Too optimistic? Maybe.


So there you are. I see the odds as a coin toss, or maybe two coin tosses for the first Gonzaga game.

IF we have just 4 losses going into the NCAA tournament, I'd expect us to get a 1 seed. Even given the awful conference. I have trouble seeing 3 other teams besides Gonzaga (who will get a 1 almost certainly) doing quite well enough to keep us out of a 1 seed.

I'd put us at more like a 1-in-3 or 2-in-5 shot against Gonzaga, but 1-in-4 isn't wildly off.

[CDu]

Pomeroy projects Duke will lose exactly 5 ACC games. He expects us to go 24-7 on the season, so my projection that you feel is too pessimistic is pretty significantly more optimistic than what the guru of projections seems to think.

It is hard to put our head around it, but if Duke was a 90% favorite to win every single ACC game, we'd lose 2 ACC games, on average, over the course of the season.

Pomeroy gives Duke a 0.2% chance of going undefeated on the season.

I do suspect though that Pomeroy's ratings are going to get more favorable for us as more data points become available. Right now, his model still relies on previous-season data. And that previous-season data was more favorable for UNC, FSU, Louisville, and UVa than the current season data are.

But yeah, I don't think your estimates were all that pessimistic. We're a young team, and we'll probably have a head-scratching loss or two along the way, along with just the typical close-game loss or three.

[FerryFor50]

There is definitely talent over in Chapel Hill and they may well figure it out. But they have been absolutely atrocious on the defensive end this year. It's even worse than it seems.

Right now, they are 143 on Torvik and 131 on kenpom on D. But a lot of that is because of their preseason ranking. If you look at Torvik "last 10" which is obviously their whole season up to this point, they are 335. That's crazy bad. And even if you filter out the horrid Brown outing, it would still be 250. Just for reference, I looked at the 2014 Duke-Vermont game because I remember that as the worst Duke d in recent memory, and UNC's adjusted 137 against Brown this year was even worse than that.

They can score and they'll probably still pick up some good wins, but unless they improve substantially on d, it could be a loooong year for them.

Oh I don't see them improving on defense. They essentially traded Garrison Brooks (101.6 drtg, 9.8 rebounds per 40min) and Walker Kessler (87.9 drtg, 14.8 rebounds per 40min) for Dawson Garcia (109.7 drtg, 8.9 rebounds per 40min at Marquette) and Brady Manek (105 career drtg, 8.3 rebounds per 40min at OK). That's gonna hurt them on defense and with rebounding, but will improve their offense and fits into the "run and gun/shoot lots of 3s" style that Davis wants. Bacot doesn't totally fit with what he wants to do and I think they're wasting Bacot's strengths. Losing Kessler I think tanked their rebounding and defensive prospects this season (there's a reason Davis begged him to come back), the guards haven't been good on defense at UNC either, and Leaky Black is a solid defender but a liability on offense.

They'll score enough to win a good amount of games, but they are, as you said, BAD on defense. I just think there's enough talent there to make the NCAA tournament, though I hope they finish last in the ACC.

[brevity]

Friday’s Duke vs. Gonzaga game in Vegas will be #5 vs #1 in the AP Poll. Quite the early season matchup.

AP Poll for this week.

1. Gonzaga (55)
2. UCLA (5)
3. Purdue (1)
4. Kansas
5. Duke
6. Baylor
7. Villanova
8. Texas
9. Memphis
10. Alabama
10. Kentucky

So far this season we've had (rankings at that time) #9 Duke vs. #10 Kentucky, #1 Gonzaga vs. #5 Texas, #2 UCLA vs. #4 Villanova, and #5 Villanova vs. #6 Purdue.

Duke is not even Gonzaga's highest ranked opponent in the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas this week. They play #2 UCLA Tuesday.

That's 7 matches between Top 10 teams in the first 3 weeks of the season. Then in December there could potentially be three more: Gonzaga faces Alabama in Seattle on 12/4, Baylor hosts Villanova on 12/12, and Memphis hosts Alabama on 12/14.

The Top 10 of the Coaches Poll looks a little different:

1. Gonzaga
2. UCLA
3. Kansas
4. Purdue
5. Baylor
6. Duke
7. Villanova
8. Texas
9. Alabama
10. Memphis

Andy Katz also has Duke at #6 in his Top 36 Power Rankings. Virginia Tech is #26 and FSU is #35.

[flyingdutchdevil]

So far this season we've had (rankings at that time) #9 Duke vs. #10 Kentucky, #1 Gonzaga vs. #5 Texas, #2 UCLA vs. #4 Villanova, and #5 Villanova vs. #6 Purdue.

Duke is not even Gonzaga's highest ranked opponent in the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas this week. They play #2 UCLA Tuesday.

That's 7 matches between Top 10 teams in the first 3 weeks of the season. Then in December there could potentially be three more: Gonzaga faces Alabama in Seattle on 12/4, Baylor hosts Villanova on 12/12, and Memphis hosts Alabama on 12/14.

The Top 10 of the Coaches Poll looks a little different:

1. Gonzaga
2. UCLA
3. Kansas
4. Purdue
5. Baylor
6. Duke
7. Villanova
8. Texas
9. Alabama
10. Memphis

Andy Katz also has Duke at #6 in his Top 36 Power Rankings. Virginia Tech is #26 and FSU is #35.

Katz has Duke at 5.

Gotta love these top 5 match ups.

I am so excited for Friday. Win or loss, this is great for college ball.

[CameronDuke]

The Dawgs lead the Hoos 32-31 at the half at the Prudential Center in Newark.

I believe UVa closed -8 in most spots I saw. If you have UGa +8, you’re sitting pretty good right now. Not sure UVa has the offensive firepower this season to turn this game around by 9+ points in the final 20 minutes.

[Bob Green]

The Dawgs lead the Hoos 32-31 at the half at the Prudential Center in Newark.

Score is 34-31. Refs called a foul on Virginia on the half court heave and the shooter made 2 of 3. Lousy call IMO.

[CameronDuke]

Score is 34-31. Refs called a foul on Virginia on the half court heave and the shooter made 2 of 3. Lousy call IMO.

I did not see that. Went out back to go grill some steaks. Thank you for pointing that out. I think this will be a tough one for UVa to cover.

[lotusland]

Oh I don't see them improving on defense. They essentially traded Garrison Brooks (101.6 drtg, 9.8 rebounds per 40min) and Walker Kessler (87.9 drtg, 14.8 rebounds per 40min) for Dawson Garcia (109.7 drtg, 8.9 rebounds per 40min at Marquette) and Brady Manek (105 career drtg, 8.3 rebounds per 40min at OK). That's gonna hurt them on defense and with rebounding, but will improve their offense and fits into the "run and gun/shoot lots of 3s" style that Davis wants. Bacot doesn't totally fit with what he wants to do and I think they're wasting Bacot's strengths. Losing Kessler I think tanked their rebounding and defensive prospects this season (there's a reason Davis begged him to come back), the guards haven't been good on defense at UNC either, and Leaky Black is a solid defender but a liability on offense.

They'll score enough to win a good amount of games, but they are, as you said, BAD on defense. I just think there's enough talent there to make the NCAA tournament, though I hope they finish last in the ACC.

Carolina Meltdown
@ICMeltdown
“This team couldn`t guard me. I`m 72 years.” #unc

[DukieInBrasil]

Score is 34-31. Refs called a foul on Virginia on the half court heave and the shooter made 2 of 3. Lousy call IMO.

i thought he definitely jumped into the shooter, which was a dumb thing to do. I was kinda surprised they called it but i thought it was the right call.

[Bob Green]

i thought he definitely jumped into the shooter, which was a dumb thing to do. I was kinda surprised they called it but i thought it was the right call.

Definitely a dumb play but the contact did not influence the shot so I thought the ref could have easily swallowed his whistle.

[DU82]

Definitely a dumb play but the contact did not influence the shot so I thought the ref could have easily swallowed his whistle.

The Duke women got the same call yesterday against Alabama. It was the right call. Stupid play by the Tide player.

[DukieInBrasil]

bit of an SEC vs ACC action going on right now with ACC teams having the chance to up the ACC profile. UVA up on UGA a little in the 2nd half, and FSU getting out to an early lead vs Mizzou.
Of course, Duke did its part...

[Ultrarunner]

This Tony Bennett dude might be able to coach a bit.

[CameronDuke]

This Tony Bennett dude might be able to coach a bit.

This is big win for them. I’ve learned to never, EVER count UVa out from winning the ACC and competing nationally. If he wins the ACC this year with this squad he deserves a statue outside of the John Paul Jones Arena.

[CameronDuke]

Josh Pastner is rocking some serious pork chop sideburns these days! Wow!

[CDu]

This is big win for them. I’ve learned to never, EVER count UVa out from winning the ACC and competing nationally. If he wins the ACC this year with this squad he deserves a statue outside of the John Paul Jones Arena.

I am not sure I would call beating a team outside the top-150 a “big” win. And I think we are a long way from a discussion of UVa winning the ACC or competing nationally.

[CameronDuke]

I am not sure I would call beating a team outside the top-150 a “big” win. And I think we are a long way from a discussion of UVa winning the ACC or competing nationally.

For them, I would say it is. They have literally no one very good offensively this year. I hope Northwestern wins tonight. I want to see Bennett vs Chris Collins tomorrow.

[CDu]

For them, I would say it is. They have literally no one very good offensively this year. I hope Northwestern wins tonight. I want to see Bennett vs Chris Collins tomorrow.

Okay, but if we are saying that a win over a bad team is a big win, then we shouldn’t be talking about ACC titles or competing nationally in the same breath.