This Week in the ACC - 11/22-28

[pfrduke]

The assessment last week was that this might not be a vintage ACC season. That appears to have been a serious understatement. We’re two weeks into the season and the conference has precisely two wins against teams in Kenpom’s top 100 - Duke over Kentucky on opening night and Florida State over Loyola Marymount today. That’s right - a win over Loyola Marymount is the entire conference’s second best win so far this season. Ever the optimist, this week’s set of exempt tournaments and other marquee matchups present more opportunities for big wins (or, if you’re the glass half empty type, more opportunities for rough losses).

Monday
[58]Georgia Tech (-26) hosts [342]Charleston Southern (7:00, ACCN)
[60]Virginia (-8) vs. [167]Georgia in Newark (7:00, ESPNU)
[27]Florida State (-9) vs. [112]Missouri in Jacksonville (8:30, FloHoops)
[10]Duke (-23) hosts [201]Citadel (9:00, ACCN)
[36]Notre Dame (-1) vs. [44]St. Mary’s in Las Vegas (11:30, ESPN2)

Tuesday
[55]North Carolina (-20) hosts [283]UNC Asheville (7:00, ACCNX)
[98]Wake Forest (-15) hosts [279]Kennesaw State (8:00, ACCN)
[60]Virginia vs. [39]Northwestern/[70]Providence in Newark (TBD)
[36]Notre Dame vs. [38]Oregon/[NR]Chaminade in Las Vegas (TBD)

Wednesday
[50]Syracuse (-6) vs. [110]VCU in Atlantis (5:00, ESPN2)
[27]Florida State (-16) hosts [171]Boston University (7:00, ACCN)
[169]Pittsburgh (+3) hosts [81]Vanderbilt (9:00, ACCN)
[24]Virginia Tech (+1) vs. [16]Memphis in MSG (9:30, ESPN2)
[36]Notre Dame vs. [9]Houston/[42]Wisconsin/[75]Butler/[76]Texas A&M in Las Vegas (TBD)

Thursday is dark
[84]Miami (-4) vs. [130]Dayton in Lake Buena Vista (12:00, ESPN2)
[52]Louisville (+1) vs. [43]Mississippi State in Nassau (9:30, CBSSN)
[50]Syracuse vs. [4]Baylor/[67]Arizona State in Atlantis (TBD)

Friday
[58]Georgia Tech (-15) vs. [223]Georgia Southern (12:00, ACCNX)
[48]Clemson (-26) hosts [342]Charleston Southern (2:00, ACCNX)
[131]Boston College (-17) hosts [338]Columbia (2:00, ACCNX)
[60]Virginia (-18) hosts [285]Lehigh (7:00, ACCN)
[98]Wake Forest (-1) vs. [101]Oregon State in Niceville (9:30, CBSSN)
[10]Duke (+6) vs. [1]Gonzaga in Las Vegas (10:30, ESPN)
[84]Miami vs. [2]Kansas/[116]North Texas in Lake Buena Vista (TBD)
[24]Virginia Tech vs. [32]Xavier/[111]Iowa State in MSG (TBD)
[50]Syracuse vs. [21]Michigan State/[22]Connecticut/[29]Auburn/[34]Loyola Chicago in Atlantis (TBD)

Saturday
[69]NC State (-6) hosts [102]Louisiana Tech (2:00, ACCNX)
[169]Pittsburgh (-7) hosts [248]UMBC (2:00, ACCNX)
[52]Louisville vs. [41]Maryland/[68]Richmond in Nassau (TBD)
[98]Wake Forest vs. [30]LSU/[87]Penn State in Niceville (TBD)

Sunday
[84]Miami vs. [14]Alabama/[54]Drake/[61]Belmont/[149]Iona in Lake Buena Vista (TBD)


ACC Non-Conference: 48-17
ACC v. Power 6: 2-7
AAC: 1-2
America East: 2-0
A-Sun: 1-0
A-10: 0-3
Big 12: 0-3
Big South: 8-0
B1G Ten: 0-1
Big West: 1-0
CAA: 5-0
CUSA: 2-0
Horizon: 1-0
Ivy: 3-0
MAAC: 3-0
MAC: 0-1
MEAC: 2-0
NEC: 3-0
Pac-12: 0-1
Patriot: 8-2
SEC: 2-2
Southern: 2-2
Southland: 1-0
SWAC: 2-0
WCC: 1-0

[Billy Dat]

Anyone looking to enjoy a little UNC bashing should watch the first few minutes of this conversation between "The Field of 68" hosts Rob Dauster and Jeff Goodman, joined by Jeff's pretty-impressive-for-a-high-school-senior daugher Talia Goodman.

https://youtu.be/YcoUnjXm6tE

"Soft" "selfish"..it's a cornucopia of degradation.

[CameronDuke]

UVa vs Tom Crean’s UGa Bulldogs at the Prudential Center in Newark tonight in the Legend’s Classic. Winner gets the winner of Northwestern vs. Providence who are both currently 4-0.

UVa is -6.5 right now. Vegas is calling for a close one. Not sure the last time a Tony Bennett coached UVa team lost thrice in November but I’d wager it’s been a while. A loss tonight would be historic.

[AGDukesky]

Anyone looking to enjoy a little UNC bashing should watch the first few minutes of this conversation between "The Field of 68" hosts Rob Dauster and Jeff Goodman, joined by Jeff's pretty-impressive-for-a-high-school-senior daugher Talia Goodman.

https://youtu.be/YcoUnjXm6tE

"Soft" "selfish"..it's a cornucopia of degradation.

Thanks for sharing- that was a great analysis of UNC and the ACC. I totally agree about Tennessee being fringe top 25 after watching the Nova game. Purdue is legit.

[FerryFor50]

Thanks for sharing- that was a great analysis of UNC and the ACC. I totally agree about Tennessee being fringe top 25 after watching the Nova game. Purdue is legit.

I don't necessarily agree about UNC. I think they're gonna be fine this season and will figure it out. Lots of talent for them this year.

[TruBlu]

I don't necessarily agree about UNC. I think they're gonna be fine this season and will figure it out. Lots of talent for them this year.

Aren’t you a ray of sunshine. Hopefully, you’re trying for a reverse jinx. 😇

[JasonEvans]

Anyone looking to enjoy a little UNC bashing should watch the first few minutes of this conversation between "The Field of 68" hosts Rob Dauster and Jeff Goodman, joined by Jeff's pretty-impressive-for-a-high-school-senior daugher Talia Goodman.

https://youtu.be/YcoUnjXm6tE

"Soft" "selfish"..it's a cornucopia of degradation.

Wow... that was brutal. Leadership. selfishness, lack of toughness, lack of motivation. They are not treating this team with kid gloves.

[brevity]

[10]Duke (+6) vs. [1]Gonzaga in Las Vegas (10:30, ESPN)

Look at that. Biggest ACC underdog of the week! (So far. No lines are made for potential tournament matchups, so Miami should be a bigger underdog against Kansas, if they play Kansas.)

Speaking of, I see the ACC taking part in three 8-team tournaments this week.

Maui Jim Maui Invitational (but not in Maui) -- Las Vegas, Mon-Wed

[9]Houston
[36]Notre Dame
[38]Oregon
[42]Wisconsin
[44]St. Mary’s
[75]Butler
[76]Texas A&M
[NR]Chaminade

Bad Boy Mowers Battle 4 Atlantis -- Bahamas, Wed-Fri

[4]Baylor
[21]Michigan State
[22]Connecticut
[29]Auburn
[34]Loyola Chicago
[50]Syracuse
[67]Arizona State
[110]VCU

ESPN Events Invitational -- Orlando, Thu-Sun

[2]Kansas
[14]Alabama
[54]Drake
[61]Belmont
[84]Miami
[116]North Texas
[130]Dayton
[149]Iona

Based on KenPom ratings, the Atlantis field looks a little stronger than Maui's.

There are also a few 4-team tournaments, with FSU finishing theirs today.

Fabletics Jacksonville Classic -- Jacksonville, Sun-Mon

[27]Florida State
[72]SMU
[79]Loyola Marymount
[112]Missouri

Roman Legends Classic -- Newark, Mon-Tue

[39]Northwestern
[60]Virginia
[70]Providence
[167]Georgia

Upsie NIT Season Tip-Off -- Brooklyn, Wed-Fri

[16]Memphis
[24]Virginia Tech
[32]Xavier
[111]Iowa State

Bahamas Championship -- Nassau, Thu-Sat

[41]Maryland*
[43]Mississippi State
[52]Louisville
[68]Richmond

Emerald Coast Classic -- Niceville FL, Fri-Sat

[30]LSU
[87]Penn State
[98]Wake Forest
[101]Oregon State

That's a lot of neutral court action. Feast Week, indeed.

*Did you know...

Maryland used to be in the ACC? It's true! It was a long time ago, and nobody likes to talk about it.

[CameronDuke]

Friday’s Duke vs. Gonzaga game in Vegas will be #5 vs #1 in the AP Poll. Quite the early season matchup.

AP Poll for this week.

1. Gonzaga (55)
2. UCLA (5)
3. Purdue (1)
4. Kansas
5. Duke
6. Baylor
7. Villanova
8. Texas
9. Memphis
10. Alabama
10. Kentucky
12. Houston
13. Arkansas
14. Illinois
15. Tennessee
16. St. Bonaventure
17. Arizona
18. BYU
19. Auburn
20. Michigan
21. Seton Hall
22. UConn
23. Florida
24. USC
25. Xavier

Others receiving votes: Oregon 96, Virginia Tech 91, Ohio St. 89, North Carolina 75, Indiana 45, Michigan St. 44, Marquette 41, Colorado St. 30, Maryland 28, Texas Tech 26, Iowa 6, LSU 6, Florida St. 4, Mississippi St. 4, Drake 2, San Francisco 1, George Mason 1, Ohio 1, Loyola Chicago 1.

[CameronDuke]

Look at that. Biggest ACC underdog of the week! (So far. No lines are made for potential tournament matchups, so Miami should be a bigger underdog against Kansas, if they play Kansas.)

Speaking of, I see the ACC taking part in three 8-team tournaments this week.

Maui Jim Maui Invitational (but not in Maui) -- Las Vegas, Mon-Wed

[9]Houston
[36]Notre Dame
[38]Oregon
[42]Wisconsin
[44]St. Mary’s
[75]Butler
[76]Texas A&M
[NR]Chaminade

Bad Boy Mowers Battle 4 Atlantis -- Bahamas, Wed-Fri

[4]Baylor
[21]Michigan State
[22]Connecticut
[29]Auburn
[34]Loyola Chicago
[50]Syracuse
[67]Arizona State
[110]VCU

ESPN Events Invitational -- Orlando, Thu-Sun

[2]Kansas
[14]Alabama
[54]Drake
[61]Belmont
[84]Miami
[116]North Texas
[130]Dayton
[149]Iona

Based on KenPom ratings, the Atlantis field looks a little stronger than Maui's.

There are also a few 4-team tournaments, with FSU finishing theirs today.

Fabletics Jacksonville Classic -- Jacksonville, Sun-Mon

[27]Florida State
[72]SMU
[79]Loyola Marymount
[112]Missouri

Roman Legends Classic -- Newark, Mon-Tue

[39]Northwestern
[60]Virginia
[70]Providence
[167]Georgia

Upsie NIT Season Tip-Off -- Brooklyn, Wed-Fri

[16]Memphis
[24]Virginia Tech
[32]Xavier
[111]Iowa State

Bahamas Championship -- Nassau, Thu-Sat

[41]Maryland*
[43]Mississippi State
[52]Louisville
[68]Richmond

Emerald Coast Classic -- Niceville FL, Fri-Sat

[30]LSU
[87]Penn State
[98]Wake Forest
[101]Oregon State

That's a lot of neutral court action. Feast Week, indeed.

Looking at Duke’s remaining schedule, will the Duke vs Gonzaga game Friday in Vegas be the only regular season, ACCT, 1st/2nd round of NCAAT, sweet 16 game they’re underdogs in? Looking at the remaining regular season schedule, I see no games in Duke’s remaining 2021-2022 regular season schedule that they won’t be the favorites to win. That likely extends through the ACCT and first 3 games of the NCAAT. The next time after this Friday I could currently see Duke as a slight underdog would be a regional final, national semifinal, or national final game.

[AGDukesky]

I don't necessarily agree about UNC. I think they're gonna be fine this season and will figure it out. Lots of talent for them this year.

I get that but it is really hard to win tournaments without getting stops. I agree UNC’s record will end up solid but mostly because the ACC is terrible and being able to score efficiently will work many nights despite mediocre to bad defense.

It is also fair to think Davis is still learning to be a head coach and there are some new pieces being integrated. I will be very curious how the Michigan game goes because it is solid on both ends of the court. Without that win (or the highly unlikely win against UCLA) UNC will need to finish in the top 4-5 in conference to have a case for the NCAAs. 12-8 in conference is not going to cut it…

[JasonEvans]

Looking at Duke’s remaining schedule, will the Duke vs Gonzaga game Friday in Vegas be the only regular season, ACCT, 1st/2nd round of NCAAT, sweet 16 game they’re underdogs in? Looking at the remaining regular season schedule, I see no games in Duke’s remaining 2021-2022 regular season schedule that they won’t be the favorites to win. That likely extends through the ACCT and first 3 games of the NCAAT. The next time after this Friday I could currently see Duke as a slight underdog would be a regional final, national semifinal, or national final game.

It is possible but not super likely. KenPom has Duke as a road dog at Ohio State and Florida State right now. Duke is only a very slight favorite for the game at Notre Dame too.

[CameronDuke]

Cuse -6 vs VCU in Atlantis Wednesday seems a bit low. VCU’s offense is terrible this year. They potentially will struggle mightily against the Cuse zone. VCU is 2-2 with home losses to Wagner and Chattanooga. Their offense is ranked 236th in the country on Kenpom. As a team, they’re 15-57 from 3 this season (26.3%). They’re also just 40-65 from the line (61.5%). They’ve been hammered on the boards 37-31 on average in their 4 games this season too. If they’re cold from 3 against Cuse, this looks like a game Cuse could comfortably win by 9-10 points and I wouldn’t be that surprised to see Cuse win by double digits.

[Dr. Rosenrosen]

Wonder when was the last time there was just one ACC team in the top 25?

[robed deity]

I don't necessarily agree about UNC. I think they're gonna be fine this season and will figure it out. Lots of talent for them this year.

There is definitely talent over in Chapel Hill and they may well figure it out. But they have been absolutely atrocious on the defensive end this year. It's even worse than it seems.

Right now, they are 143 on Torvik and 131 on kenpom on D. But a lot of that is because of their preseason ranking. If you look at Torvik "last 10" which is obviously their whole season up to this point, they are 335. That's crazy bad. And even if you filter out the horrid Brown outing, it would still be 250. Just for reference, I looked at the 2014 Duke-Vermont game because I remember that as the worst Duke d in recent memory, and UNC's adjusted 137 against Brown this year was even worse than that.

They can score and they'll probably still pick up some good wins, but unless they improve substantially on d, it could be a loooong year for them.

[CDu]

It is possible but not super likely. KenPom has Duke as a road dog at Ohio State and Florida State right now. Duke is only a very slight favorite for the game at Notre Dame too.

Was just going to say that we are still currectly the underdogs at OSU.

But slight favorites @ND, @Louisville, and @FSU. The rest we will likely be favorites.

[JasonEvans]

Was just going to say that we are still currectly the underdogs at OSU.

But slight favorites @ND, @Louisville, and @FSU. The rest we will likely be favorites.

This is both bonkers and really, largely just a guess but still...

Of our remaining non-conference schedule, I think there is maybe a 10% chance we go undefeated, about a 65% chance we lose 1, a 20% chance we lose 2, and a 5% chance we lose 3.

In the ACC, I would say there is about a 10% chance we go undefeated, 25% chance we lose only 1 or 2 games, a 40% chance we lose 3 or 4 games, a 15% chance we lose 5 or 6, and a 10% chance we lose 7 or more.

Anyone think those numbers sound crazy? I'm saying Duke will most likely lose 4 or 5 games heading into the ACC tourney.

-Jason "a lot could change on Friday... beat Gonzaga and the odds of a truly special season start to skyrocket" Evans

[flyingdutchdevil]

This is both bonkers and really, largely just a guess but still...

Of our remaining non-conference schedule, I think there is maybe a 10% chance we go undefeated, about a 65% chance we lose 1, a 20% chance we lose 2, and a 5% chance we lose 3.

In the ACC, I would say there is about a 10% chance we go undefeated, 25% chance we lose only 1 or 2 games, a 40% chance we lose 3 or 4 games, a 15% chance we lose 5 or 6, and a 10% chance we lose 7 or more.

Anyone think those numbers sound crazy? I'm saying Duke will most likely lose 4 or 5 games heading into the ACC tourney.

-Jason "a lot could change on Friday... beat Gonzaga and the odds of a truly special season start to skyrocket" Evans

Given how good Duke looks and how bad the ACC is, I think 25% for losing 5 or more ACC games is a little too high.

Duke will likely lose a few ACC games, but if we lose 5+, Duke has taken a few steps back.

[camion]

Given how good Duke looks and how bad the ACC is, I think 25% for losing 5 or more ACC games is a little too high.

Duke will likely lose a few ACC games, but if we lose 5+, Duke has taken a few steps back.

Fearless predictions:

I expect us to lose the first game with Gonzaga (25% chance of a win). I don't think we are consistent enough yet to beat them.

I also expect us to roll into the NCAA tournament with 4 losses (50%) and a 2 seed (50%). The 1 seed in our bracket will not be happy. The 3 seed will be even less happy.

Odds of making the final four, 50%. Too optimistic? Maybe.


So there you are. I see the odds as a coin toss, or maybe two coin tosses for the first Gonzaga game.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

This is both bonkers and really, largely just a guess but still...

Of our remaining non-conference schedule, I think there is maybe a 10% chance we go undefeated, about a 65% chance we lose 1, a 20% chance we lose 2, and a 5% chance we lose 3.

In the ACC, I would say there is about a 10% chance we go undefeated, 25% chance we lose only 1 or 2 games, a 40% chance we lose 3 or 4 games, a 15% chance we lose 5 or 6, and a 10% chance we lose 7 or more.

Anyone think those numbers sound crazy? I'm saying Duke will most likely lose 4 or 5 games heading into the ACC tourney.

-Jason "a lot could change on Friday... beat Gonzaga and the odds of a truly special season start to skyrocket" Evans

Personally, I would like to shelve the undefeated talk until after the Gonzaga and OSU games.