Cutcliffe Retirement Speculation

[Thurber Whyte]

To me, there have been a number of points in the decline.

-2015 Miami: this robbery is when we stopped competing for Coastal titles, having been in the race every year starting with 2012.
-2016: the 4-8 year, when our offense noticably declined following the departure of Scottie Montgomery, and promotion of Zac Roper to OC. John Latina also retired after 2015, and the OL went from a huge strength to a major weakeness.
-2018: Jim Knowles left for Oklahoma State, and the defense entered a similar spiral. The 59-7 evisceration against Wake in the finale was also the first game Duke quit under Cut, a sign of things to follow.
-2019: the halfback pass on the goal line at Kenan, which is when we stopped being competitive in the ACC, as our 2-19 record in the last 21 league games showcases. There were several more blowouts where the effort was subpar, too.
-2020: Covid, and the Chase Brice experiment, which was a miserable failure. Gunnar has played better this year than Brice ever did, and I wish Cut had given him some opportunities. The Brice pickup seemed exciting at first, but the plug should've been pulled by mid-season at latest.
-2021: the Charlotte and GT late game collapses, which were the final nails in the coffin. If we get stops to close out those two games, Duke is 5-5, with 2 home games left to reach bowl eligibility.

It's been a combination of talented assistants leaving and not being adequately replaced, a swing and a miss at QB, and some devastating losses (Miami 15, UNC 19, Charlotte and GT this year) that killed the program's mojo. Back in early 2019 I truly thought Cut would be coaching Duke until the mid-2020s, making minor bowls most years, but things really imploded.

This is a good summary. I would just point out that in 2019 we gave up a home game so that we could play #2 Alabama in the Chick-fil-A Kickoff Game and it was also our year to play #15 Notre Dame. If we had been able to do what we would normally do with our non-conference schedule and put a non-Power 5 FBS team and a weak Power 5 team in their places, that season would have looked a lot different. If nothing else changed, including the exasperating losses, Duke could have finished the season 7-5, gone to a somewhat higher rated bowl game than in 2018 and perhaps ended the season 8-5. Because 2020 was a write off due to the disparate impact of covid on our team and the failed Chase Brice experiment (which no one here saw coming at the beginning of the season), we might be more inclined to see this season as an aberration. All the concerns and criticisms expressed would still be valid, but we might be more hesitant to reach for the torches and pitchforks.

[Jedweb]

I understand that TW is not being serious, but as a Duke fan and alum who has been through all of the coaches since the end of the Bill Murray era, i don't feel remotely like torches and pitchfork. I doubt that very few feel that way. I remember early on when Cut arrived - perhaps his first recruiting year - there was a flurry during a short period when he announced one commitment after another. Sure, many, perhaps most, of those kids were passed over by the big boys, but the multiple signings gave a feeling of momentum. And even though in the beginning W's were hard to come by, there was optimism. A friend of many years who still lives within easy driving distance of Durham had heard Coach Cut speak and said he was going to get season tickets. It was first time ever for him. I have the same feeling that many have expressed: the understanding that Cut is a good guy and a man of integrity who tolerates no serious misbehavior, is loyal to assistants, and cares about the players he recruits. (How many guys has he sent on his way for serious misbehavior)? Like others I remember the optimism of going to bowl games - even if minor ones, and even though it took two or three tries before we got a W. Hell of a lot better than one win seasons. And the year after we lost a tough bowl game to Johnny Football, somebody posted on here an inquiry from a Texas A&M fan about what our team was going to be like the following year. We were regarded as a football peer. i have no idea why the program has tailed off so badly, but it has. i could not have less inside info about the program, but my gut tells me that Cut does not have the energy or the skill for a second resurrection. I hope that he decides to hang it up on his own. Even though his salary is far less than what the Jimbo Fishers and Nick Sabans of the world are paid, if Coach Cutcliffe is not financially secure, then i'd be really surprised. Maybe, just maybe, he's already told Nina that this is his last year, and she's already looking. For everybody's sake, i hope so. Unless something happens quickly i don't even want to think about next year's transfer portal.

[OZZIE4DUKE]

Oh, and beat unc mercilessly 100% of the time. So bad that they get caught cheating (did they ever stop?), get the death penalty in all sports, lose their academic credentials, and get renamed Chapel Hill Community Junior College. Replaced in the ACC by ECU or Charlotte.

Perfect! Just absolutely perfect! LGD GTHcGTH! 9F!

[SamHouston]

Does Stanford not slot in here?

I have a different idea about this list.

The only Private School members of the Association of American Universities playing Power Five football are Duke, Vandy, Northwestern, Stanford and USC.

This academic distinction impacts mission, vision and allocation of resources.

Additionally, with the possible exception of USC, the other four schools identify as and strive to be “Top Ten” American Universities. They complete for the bast of the best students.

In my opinion these factors make them significantly different than several other private schools on the List.

[CrazyNotCrazie]

I have a different idea about this list.

The only Private School members of the Association of American Universities playing Power Five football are Duke, Vandy, Northwestern, Stanford and USC.

This academic distinction impacts mission, vision and allocation of resources.

Additionally, with the possible exception of USC, the other four schools identify as and strive to be “Top Ten” American Universities. They complete for the bast of the best students.

In my opinion these factors make them significantly different than several other private schools on the List.

Differentiating Wake and BC from these schools is splitting hairs - they are on par academically with some of the other non-Power 5 schools in that group. But then again, most of this conversation, like many other threads here, seems to have devolved into splitting hairs based on arbitrarily assigned criteria.

TL/DR: there are very few schools that are good comps to Duke for football. The university needs to figure out the amount of resources it wants to dedicate to football. That decision could have a major impact on the rest of the athletic department. Lots of DBR posters have different views on the topic. Some feel more strongly than others. Nina King has some big decisions to make, but to some extent this is a Board of Trustees level decision.

[uh_no]

I have a different idea about this list.

The only Private School members of the Association of American Universities playing Power Five football are Duke, Vandy, Northwestern, Stanford and USC.

This academic distinction impacts mission, vision and allocation of resources.

Additionally, with the possible exception of USC, the other four schools identify as and strive to be “Top Ten” American Universities. They complete for the bast of the best students.

In my opinion these factors make them significantly different than several other private schools on the List.

the AAU is more a political "old boys club" than a particular good measure of the quality of an institution. There's a bit of an insight into the garbage that goes on in this op piece.

https://www.newamerica.org/education...entral/newaau/

(not that i know much about the quality of a site called "new america," but the anecdotes about UNL, syracuse and ASU are factually correct, which is the point of citing it)

It doesn't mean universities don't aspire to be among the AAU, but like the USNWR rankings, just because a university aspires to do well in the metric doesn't mean it's a particularly useful metric. Even if it were a useful metric on the whole, it is far too broad a brush to use when looking for situations similar to ours. As you acknowledge, for instance, USC is not in the same class as the other 4.

In the end, every school's football situation is slightly different, and it is likely true that there are fewer schools in similar situations to duke than there might be for most.

[budwom]

Also not sure I see a meaningful distinction between public and private universities with that affiliation...

[luvduke5]

I was at the miami game that Duke won (but they gave the win to miami), and in my hindsight it seems that game was the beginning of the skid. I think that took the wind out of their sails and Duke football has never recovered...

[budwom]

I was at the miami game that Duke won (but they gave the win to miami), and in my hindsight it seems that game was the beginning of the skid. I think that took the wind out of their sails and Duke football has never recovered...

Not at all clear what that game actually caused to happen, but no doubt it marked an inflection point in our fortunes. it's been an ugly ride down.

[luvduke5]

Not at all clear what that game actually caused to happen, but no doubt it marked an inflection point in our fortunes. it's been an ugly ride down.

I think it broke their spirit, knowing they really won but the officials took it away. Just my opinion, but it seems that was when it started from my view. Of course there are other reasons already stated, just a combination of a lot of factors.

[jimsumner]

I was at the miami game that Duke won (but they gave the win to miami), and in my hindsight it seems that game was the beginning of the skid. I think that took the wind out of their sails and Duke football has never recovered...

I still think the downward spiral began in Chapel Hill in 2019.

[Acymetric]

I still think the downward spiral began in Chapel Hill in 2019.

Hard not to look at Wake in 2018...but the fact that there are so many points to choose from is probably indicative of a problem regardless of when things really started to slip I guess.

[luvduke5]

Hard not to look at Wake in 2018...but the fact that there are so many points to choose from is probably indicative of a problem regardless of when things really started to slip I guess.

True dat! I was hoping Cut would turn everything around, but then this season came around and I have no hope now. Sadly, it's time for him to go in my opinion.

[PDDuke85]

Rather than look at a game in ‘18, or ‘19, or one play here and there, I believe the decline occurred when Cut became comfortable with a weak group of assistant coaches. Instead of looking for proven coordinators, he promoted unqualified individuals from within.

Is that loyalty or insecurity or complacency? I don’t know, but his current cast of assistants seems more damning than one game.

[jimsumner]

Hard not to look at Wake in 2018...but the fact that there are so many points to choose from is probably indicative of a problem regardless of when things really started to slip I guess.

Duke followed that Wake debacle with a bowl win and started the next season 4-2, with a huge road win over Virginia Tech. Duke went to Chapel Hill that fateful Saturday 4-3 and very much in the bowl mix. A win there and Duke is 5-3, 3-2 in the ACC. Instead Duke lost their next games by scores of 38-7, 49-6 and 39-27 before beating Miami. A 2-9 season followed with a 3-9 2021 season looming large.

The Miami loss was bad because it was taken away through incompetent officiating. But the Carolina loss was worse, IMO, because it was a self-inflicted wound of bad coaching.

I think Duke lost its fire that day, lost its swagger, lost its mojo. I'm not sure they get it back without hitting reset with a new staff.

[Acymetric]

Duke followed that Wake debacle with a bowl win and started the next season 4-2, with a huge road win over Virginia Tech. Duke went to Chapel Hill that fateful Saturday 4-3 and very much in the bowl mix. A win there and Duke is 5-3, 3-2 in the ACC. Instead Duke lost their next games by scores of 38-7, 49-6 and 39-27 before beating Miami. A 2-9 season followed with a 3-9 2021 season looming large.

The Miami loss was bad because it was taken away through incompetent officiating. But the Carolina loss was worse, IMO, because it was a self-inflicted wound of bad coaching.

I think Duke lost its fire that day, lost its swagger, lost its mojo. I'm not sure they get it back without hitting reset with a new staff.

That's fair. I guess I'd say the Carolina game was the point of no return but the Wake game was an early indicator (although there were arguably others) that not all was well.

[Wander]

Rather than look at a game in ‘18, or ‘19, or one play here and there, I believe the decline occurred when Cut became comfortable with a weak group of assistant coaches. Instead of looking for proven coordinators, he promoted unqualified individuals from within.

I totally agree with this take. Yes, you can make a long list of crappy moments like the Wake Forest blowout or letting Georgia Tech score at the end, but I would say a majority of programs outside the perennial powerhouses have equivalent moments to these, and most of those programs do not then completely collapse into not being competitive.

[Bluedog]

"all you have to do to keep your job is keep making bowl games? for a couple million a year? I'm in!"


And to those who say duke is a dead end job, Cut was offered the Tennessee position after he lifted us up and rejected it. This, for better or worse, WILL be a stepping stone job for someone.

To clarify, Cutcliffe was NOT offered the job at Tennessee. He was offered to be CONSIDERED as a candidate for the job and he declined to go through the process. Maybe it doesn't really matter to your point, but thought I'd at least make that important distinction.

Since the new hire of Pruitt incidentally, TN has gone 5-7, 8-5, 3-7 (SEC schedule only), and 5-4 this season thus far with one bowl appearance and win (Gator). They had gone 5-7, 7-6, 9-4, 9-4. and 4-8 (admittedly 0-8 in the SEC) before firing Butch Jones after five seasons...

[uh_no]

To clarify, Cutcliffe was NOT offered the job at Tennessee. He was offered to be CONSIDERED as a candidate for the job and he declined to go through the process. Maybe it doesn't really matter to your point, but thought I'd at least make that important distinction.

Since the new hire of Pruitt incidentally, TN has gone 5-7, 8-5, 3-7, and 5-4 this season thus far with one bowl appearance and win (Gator). They had gone 5-7, 7-6, 9-4, 9-4. and 4-8 before firing Butch Jones after five seasons...

uhhh he went to tennessee to interview for the job, and the ability to take his staff with him was widely regarded as the dealbreaker.

[budwom]

To clarify, Cutcliffe was NOT offered the job at Tennessee. He was offered to be CONSIDERED as a candidate for the job and he declined to go through the process. Maybe it doesn't really matter to your point, but thought I'd at least make that important distinction.

Since the new hire of Pruitt incidentally, TN has gone 5-7, 8-5, 3-7 (SEC schedule only), and 5-4 this season thus far with one bowl appearance and win (Gator). They had gone 5-7, 7-6, 9-4, 9-4. and 4-8 (admittedly 0-8 in the SEC) before firing Butch Jones after five seasons...

My understanding is that Cut refused to go thru the process because he couldn't bring all of his staff with him, as Tennessee still had some coaches under contract. (I don't think this point particularly matters, either, it just happens to be what I recall).