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  1. #41
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
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    Durham
    Quote Originally Posted by budwom View Post
    yes, we are in a different place (Duke) than most of the rest of the college football universe. But we're in a pretty good place on the risk-reward continuum...the pay is quite good (we'll see how much they pay the next guy) and the job security is especially generous. For the right guy, it's a very good gig.
    "all you have to do to keep your job is keep making bowl games? for a couple million a year? I'm in!"


    And to those who say duke is a dead end job, Cut was offered the Tennessee position after he lifted us up and rejected it. This, for better or worse, WILL be a stepping stone job for someone.
    basketball is back, baby!

  2. #42
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    New Bern, NC unless it's a home football game then I'm grilling on Devil's Alley
    Quote Originally Posted by uh_no View Post
    "all you have to do to keep your job is keep making bowl games? for a couple million a year? I'm in!"


    And to those who say duke is a dead end job, Cut was offered the Tennessee position after he lifted us up and rejected it. This, for better or worse, WILL be a stepping stone job for someone.
    It was for Spurrier. I've said many times, if Duke is a stepping stone job, I'm totally good with that, since it means we all get to enjoy his successes, and hopefully he is followed by someone that works out just as well.
    If in 20 years we've had 3-4 coaches and 15 bowls, I won't complain.
    Q "Why do you like Duke, you didn't even go there." A "Because my art school didn't have a basketball team."

  3. #43
    Quote Originally Posted by CameronBornAndBred View Post
    It was for Spurrier. I've said many times, if Duke is a stepping stone job, I'm totally good with that, since it means we all get to enjoy his successes, and hopefully he is followed by someone that works out just as well.
    If in 20 years we've had 3-4 coaches and 15 bowls, I won't complain.
    I mean, 15 bowls in 20 years would be something wholly unprecedented for our program.

    Maybe we should start a thread where we share what we think realistic goals are for Duke football. Above .500? Four ACC wins? Bowl bids? Bowl wins? Beat UNC 75% of the time?

    What's a reasonable bar for success?
       

  4. #44
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Location
    Durham
    Quote Originally Posted by Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15 View Post
    I mean, 15 bowls in 20 years would be something wholly unprecedented for our program.

    Maybe we should start a thread where we share what we think realistic goals are for Duke football. Above .500? Four ACC wins? Bowl bids? Bowl wins? Beat UNC 75% of the time?

    What's a reasonable bar for success?
    natties. every year
    basketball is back, baby!

  5. #45
    Quote Originally Posted by Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15 View Post
    I mean, 15 bowls in 20 years would be something wholly unprecedented for our program.

    Maybe we should start a thread where we share what we think realistic goals are for Duke football. Above .500? Four ACC wins? Bowl bids? Bowl wins? Beat UNC 75% of the time?

    What's a reasonable bar for success?
    The bar can change over time, and season to season depending on the perceived talent level. In recent years, I guess I've set that bar as being consistently as good or better as Wake Forest or Appalachian State.

  6. #46
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    New Bern, NC unless it's a home football game then I'm grilling on Devil's Alley
    Quote Originally Posted by uh_no View Post
    natties. every year
    With a new coach every 4 of them!
    Q "Why do you like Duke, you didn't even go there." A "Because my art school didn't have a basketball team."

  7. #47
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    New Bern, NC unless it's a home football game then I'm grilling on Devil's Alley
    Quote Originally Posted by Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15 View Post
    I mean, 15 bowls in 20 years would be something wholly unprecedented for our program.
    Of course, if 6 win seasons become the norm, then we'd hear people complaining about THAT.
    But, I'd enjoy it, and again, it would mean that our current coach who is about to go off to a bigger and better school did his part and we'd hope for the same from his successor.
    Q "Why do you like Duke, you didn't even go there." A "Because my art school didn't have a basketball team."

  8. #48
    Quote Originally Posted by Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15 View Post
    I mean, 15 bowls in 20 years would be something wholly unprecedented for our program.

    Maybe we should start a thread where we share what we think realistic goals are for Duke football. Above .500? Four ACC wins? Bowl bids? Bowl wins? Beat UNC 75% of the time?

    What's a reasonable bar for success?
    With bowls now for every team that is .500....I'd say that going 3-5 in the ACC and winning 3 creampuff games out of 4 non conference games a year is not a spectacularly high bar. Going to a bowl aint' what it used to be...
    GREATEST SERIES END EPISODES EVER? !
    NOT MASH: either Burn Notice or The Americans.

  9. #49
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Watching carolina Go To HELL!
    Quote Originally Posted by uh_no View Post
    natties. every year
    Someone please Zpork this man for me! I guess me seeing you in Cameron has rubbed off on you!
    Ozzie, your paradigm of optimism!

    Go To Hell carolina, Go To Hell!
    9F 9F 9F
    http://www.EGLEW.com


  10. #50
    Quote Originally Posted by YmoBeThere View Post
    While I love Duke, this gives us too much credit for uniqueness. There are a small number of schools that face the obstacles we do and varying levels of success within those parameters. Agreed it is a tall task but it can be done. I'm not the first person to make this point but do feel this narrative needs to be addressed.
    It's a pretty small universe however....the schools in this situation - small school, competing with nearby larger schools...in a big time conference...include, kinda sorta:
    Rice
    Baylor
    Wake Forest
    Maybe BC
    Vandy
    Northwestern

    Am I missing anyone?
    Of those, Baylor has a reasonable chance of being the regional team...fighting the inherent fandom for the big U of - with Texas - and a very popular A and M...but no one close by. Rice is in Houston's back yard, and faces the same Texas and A and M problem. Vandy has room to work, but face the "University of" with Tennessee of course. Those states tend to focus on football too. NW is in Notre Dames area a bit, and U of Illinois, but not nearly as crowded as Duke is by major state schools. BC is in a pro market, with little collegiate competition nearby...but small school.

    The leaves WF....and it's probably rare that Duke and WF have been good at FB at the same time. It will probably remain that way. FB is a big school's sport, with so many inherent structural advantages. Duke may well be the toughest job in the nation. Hellva interesting topic.
    GREATEST SERIES END EPISODES EVER? !
    NOT MASH: either Burn Notice or The Americans.

  11. #51
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Raleigh, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by HereBeforeCoachK View Post
    It's a pretty small universe however...the schools in this situation - small school, competing with nearby larger schools...in a big time conference...include, kinda sorta:
    Rice
    Baylor
    Wake Forest
    Maybe BC
    Vandy
    Northwestern

    Am I missing anyone?
    Of those, Baylor has a reasonable chance of being the regional team...fighting the inherent fandom for the big U of - with Texas - and a very popular A and M...but no one close by. Rice is in Houston's back yard, and faces the same Texas and A and M problem. Vandy has room to work, but face the "University of" with Tennessee of course. Those states tend to focus on football too. NW is in Notre Dames area a bit, and U of Illinois, but not nearly as crowded as Duke is by major state schools. BC is in a pro market, with little collegiate competition nearby...but small school.

    The leaves WF...and it's probably rare that Duke and WF have been good at FB at the same time. It will probably remain that way. FB is a big school's sport, with so many inherent structural advantages. Duke may well be the toughest job in the nation. Hellva interesting topic.
    Does Stanford not slot in here?

  12. #52
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    New Bern, NC unless it's a home football game then I'm grilling on Devil's Alley
    Quote Originally Posted by jimsumner View Post
    Does Stanford not slot in here?
    Definitely does.
    Q "Why do you like Duke, you didn't even go there." A "Because my art school didn't have a basketball team."

  13. #53
    Quote Originally Posted by jimsumner View Post
    Does Stanford not slot in here?
    AH, knew I was missing something. Yes, Stanford slots in a bit, - JUST A BIT - but Stanford is extraordinarily wealthy school, in extraordinarily wealthy area, and a far bigger population without the huge competition nearby. Cal is considered their neighbor, but Cal is further from Stanford than all of the Big Four are from Duke. They also don't have football as a second tier sport. I see Stanford job as not nearly as difficult as Duke football....although there are comparisons that are analogous.
    GREATEST SERIES END EPISODES EVER? !
    NOT MASH: either Burn Notice or The Americans.

  14. #54
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
    Location
    Chicago
    Quote Originally Posted by HereBeforeCoachK View Post
    It's a pretty small universe however...the schools in this situation - small school, competing with nearby larger schools...in a big time conference...include, kinda sorta:
    Rice
    Baylor
    Wake Forest
    Maybe BC
    Vandy
    Northwestern

    Am I missing anyone?
    Of those, Baylor has a reasonable chance of being the regional team...fighting the inherent fandom for the big U of - with Texas - and a very popular A and M...but no one close by. Rice is in Houston's back yard, and faces the same Texas and A and M problem. Vandy has room to work, but face the "University of" with Tennessee of course. Those states tend to focus on football too. NW is in Notre Dames area a bit, and U of Illinois, but not nearly as crowded as Duke is by major state schools. BC is in a pro market, with little collegiate competition nearby...but small school.

    The leaves WF...and it's probably rare that Duke and WF have been good at FB at the same time. It will probably remain that way. FB is a big school's sport, with so many inherent structural advantages. Duke may well be the toughest job in the nation. Hellva interesting topic.
    FWIW, Pat Forde of SI, never one to miss chances to bash Duke, recently listed the 7 worst Power 5 coaching jobs as follows:

    Texas Tech
    Arizona
    Syracuse
    Oregon State
    Rutgers
    Vanderbilt
    Kansas

    https://www.si.com/college/2021/10/2...llege-football

    The Athletic's list of hardest jobs in CFB from a few weeks earlier (this was actually a poll of people involved in the sport):

    Vanderbilt
    Kansas
    Nebraska
    Texas
    Washington State
    Auburn
    Tennessee
    Wake
    Michigan

    Duke was not listed among other notable vote getters

    https://theathletic.com/2885974/2021...igan-and-more/

    The Duke job is undoubtedly hard. But it is exponentially more attractive now than it was when Cut signed on, for reasons others have cited. I'm not underestimating what it will take to dig the program out of its current state. But I'm confident it can be done with the right hire.

  15. #55
    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Location
    North of Durham
    Quote Originally Posted by HereBeforeCoachK View Post
    It's a pretty small universe however...the schools in this situation - small school, competing with nearby larger schools...in a big time conference...include, kinda sorta:
    Rice
    Baylor
    Wake Forest
    Maybe BC
    Vandy
    Northwestern

    Am I missing anyone?
    Of those, Baylor has a reasonable chance of being the regional team...fighting the inherent fandom for the big U of - with Texas - and a very popular A and M...but no one close by. Rice is in Houston's back yard, and faces the same Texas and A and M problem. Vandy has room to work, but face the "University of" with Tennessee of course. Those states tend to focus on football too. NW is in Notre Dames area a bit, and U of Illinois, but not nearly as crowded as Duke is by major state schools. BC is in a pro market, with little collegiate competition nearby...but small school.

    The leaves WF...and it's probably rare that Duke and WF have been good at FB at the same time. It will probably remain that way. FB is a big school's sport, with so many inherent structural advantages. Duke may well be the toughest job in the nation. Hellva interesting topic.
    It is a stretch but one could also argue Miami is in this group. Private school, not huge (though bigger than most of these). Its competitors aren't geographically that close but until recently it had some very big hitters in state, with a few other schools (like UCF) aspiring to get there. Just throwing it out there...

    I think that accounts for all of the Power 5 private schools other than Syracuse, which is also a unique beast.

  16. #56
    Join Date
    Mar 2010
    Location
    Atlanta 'burbs
    Quote Originally Posted by Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15 View Post
    I mean, 15 bowls in 20 years would be something wholly unprecedented for our program.

    Maybe we should start a thread where we share what we think realistic goals are for Duke football. Above .500? Four ACC wins? Bowl bids? Bowl wins? Beat UNC 75% of the time?

    What's a reasonable bar for success?
    A floor of around .500 every year, in the ACC and overall. Minor bowls generally with occasional misses, but a semi-major or major bowl about once every 6-8 years.

    Oh, and beat unc mercilessly 100% of the time. So bad that they get caught cheating (did they ever stop?), get the death penalty in all sports, lose their academic credentials, and get renamed Chapel Hill Community Junior College. Replaced in the ACC by ECU or Charlotte.
       

  17. #57
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Raleigh, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15 View Post
    I mean, 15 bowls in 20 years would be something wholly unprecedented for our program.

    Maybe we should start a thread where we share what we think realistic goals are for Duke football. Above .500? Four ACC wins? Bowl bids? Bowl wins? Beat UNC 75% of the time?

    What's a reasonable bar for success?
    Assuming we continue to schedule 4 winnable OOC games, to me the minimum expected performance looks something like:


    • .500 ACC average (of course some years will be better and some will be worse, but if a coach starts dipping too far below .500 overall that is an issue)
    • Minimal blowout losses against bad or average teams (I don't have a good way to quantify this, open to suggestions, but I think this ultimately ends up being a somewhat subjective criteria depending on the circumstances of a given blowout)
    • 70% bowl appearance rate (I didn't put a lot of thought into the specific number, but it should be well north of 60% IMO)


    I'm sure I could come up with a longer list, but that's about what it should be to me.

  18. #58
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Vermont
    Quote Originally Posted by Acymetric View Post
    Assuming we continue to schedule 4 winnable OOC games, to me the minimum expected performance looks something like:


    • .500 ACC average (of course some years will be better and some will be worse, but if a coach starts dipping too far below .500 overall that is an issue)
    • Minimal blowout losses against bad or average teams (I don't have a good way to quantify this, open to suggestions, but I think this ultimately ends up being a somewhat subjective criteria depending on the circumstances of a given blowout)
    • 70% bowl appearance rate (I didn't put a lot of thought into the specific number, but it should be well north of 60% IMO)


    I'm sure I could come up with a longer list, but that's about what it should be to me.
    That was Cut's secret sauce for some time. Schedule four winnable OOC games, win at least three of them, go no worse than 3-5 in conference, and off to a bowl you go. A Duke coach can get by indefinitely with this level of achievement.

  19. #59
    Quote Originally Posted by CrazyNotCrazie View Post
    It is a stretch but one could also argue Miami is in this group. Private school, not huge (though bigger than most of these). Its competitors aren't geographically that close but until recently it had some very big hitters in state, with a few other schools (like UCF) aspiring to get there. Just throwing it out there...

    I think that accounts for all of the Power 5 private schools other than Syracuse, which is also a unique beast.
    Miami is indeed a private school, but along with Southern Cal (another private school) - those two stand alone. Due to the essence of their names...they do enjoy a lot of the natural advantages of being a "University of." U of Miami. U of S Cal. They don't get ALL the advantages of being a University of...they don't have the large student bodies, for example...and therefore not the large local alumni base that goes with it. But they do get the geographical cache.

    Duke has no such advantage, and neither do the other schools on my list. I left Miami and Southern Cal off intentionally.
    GREATEST SERIES END EPISODES EVER? !
    NOT MASH: either Burn Notice or The Americans.

  20. #60
    Quote Originally Posted by budwom View Post
    That was Cut's secret sauce for some time. Schedule four winnable OOC games, win at least three of them, go no worse than 3-5 in conference, and off to a bowl you go. A Duke coach can get by indefinitely with this level of achievement.
    Well if they do much better than that- they will not be a Duke coach for long.
       

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