Cutcliffe Retirement Speculation

[TKG]

Definitely does.

How about West Point and Annapolis?

[CameronBlue]

Both statements speak to why I will always give David Cutcliffe my gratitude and respect. He brought a world of change to Duke football, and I am pretty certain that what he started will coninue. It's just unfortunate that he seemingly isn't able to continue it himself.

This is a nice sentiment and well-expressed. Who knows, maybe Cut will bring the grandkids around to Blue Devil Alley for some face painting...do you do balloon animals as well?

[CrazyNotCrazie]

Miami is indeed a private school, but along with Southern Cal (another private school) - those two stand alone. Due to the essence of their names...they do enjoy a lot of the natural advantages of being a "University of." U of Miami. U of S Cal. They don't get ALL the advantages of being a University of...they don't have the large student bodies, for example...and therefore not the large local alumni base that goes with it. But they do get the geographical cache.

Duke has no such advantage, and neither do the other schools on my list. I left Miami and Southern Cal off intentionally.

I knew I was missing one - USC. Their undergrad enrollment is actually close to 20k, so it is bigger than most other privates and some publics, plus a lot of their alums stay very local.

[Acymetric]

Both statements speak to why I will always give David Cutcliffe my gratitude and respect. He brought a world of change to Duke football, and I am pretty certain that what he started will coninue. It's just unfortunate that he seemingly isn't able to continue it himself.

I want to agree with this 100%, but I think he's leaving the next coach with a multi-year rebuilding project and (for me) that factors in when evaluating his legacy.

[AustinDevil]

It's a pretty small universe however...the schools in this situation - small school, competing with nearby larger schools...in a big time conference...include, kinda sorta:
Rice
Baylor
Wake Forest
Maybe BC
Vandy
Northwestern

Am I missing anyone?

I guess you'd have to consider your definition of "big time conference," but Rice has been languishing in a conference that is WAY below national attention, and will only join the American after Cincinnati, Houston, and UCF have departed.

From a P5 perspective, TCU should be there right along with Baylor. From a "more major than Rice perspective," you'd also have to look at SMU, Temple, and Tulane.

[cato]

I guess you'd have to consider your definition of "big time conference," but Rice has been languishing in a conference that is WAY below national attention, and will only join the American after Cincinnati, Houston, and UCF have departed.

From a P5 perspective, TCU should be there right along with Baylor. From a "more major than Rice perspective," you'd also have to look at SMU, Temple, and Tulane.

As a Duke fan, intimately familiar with the challenges Duke faces in football and the lost generation(s) where the program was at true rock bottom, it is easy to forget all of the advantages Duke presents and how huge an opportunity being head coach at Duke University is.

This has been a tough few years, particularly the exodus of talented players from the program last spring. But Duke has real potential if the University has the desire and right people in place to unlock it.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

How about West Point and Annapolis?

The academies are their own category - for any number of reasons, IMO.

This is a nice sentiment and well-expressed. Who knows, maybe Cut will bring the grandkids around to Blue Devil Alley for some face painting...do you do balloon animals as well?

You are a kinder gent than I. I lost that kind of unicorns and ice cream fuzzy feels about a year ago.

I knew I was missing one - USC. Their undergrad enrollment is actually close to 20k, so it is bigger than most other privates and some publics, plus a lot of their alums stay very local.

Yep, different animal, for several reasons also.

I guess you'd have to consider your definition of "big time conference," but Rice has been languishing in a conference that is WAY below national attention, and will only join the American after Cincinnati, Houston, and UCF have departed.

From a P5 perspective, TCU should be there right along with Baylor. From a "more major than Rice perspective," you'd also have to look at SMU, Temple, and Tulane.

Yeah, not all of the schools I listed met ALL of the criteria I was considering...and Rice's conference being one of those. TCU and SMU both with a long football heritage, very different than most schools in the list. They seem very academically flexible for FB too. SMU for a while was the hardest job in the nation after the death penalty. Those two also are surrounded by a lot of FB talent in the high schools. I suppose Tulane would be applicable...but I don't think they face the academic requirements Duke does...and certainly not the pedigree. I would say Duke is harder job than those schools now....possible exception of Rice. Poor Fred Goldsmith, having both those jobs....

[Wander]

I mean, 15 bowls in 20 years would be something wholly unprecedented for our program.

Maybe we should start a thread where we share what we think realistic goals are for Duke football. Above .500? Four ACC wins? Bowl bids? Bowl wins? Beat UNC 75% of the time?

What's a reasonable bar for success?

From 2008–2019, Cutcliffe met the bar for success with flying colors: bowls in half the seasons, 8 wins or more in a third of the seasons, and especially a division title (!) surpassed my wildest expectations. Those stats look even better if you do the reasonable thing and take away the first few years as a pass coming off of historically awful seasons before he was hired.

The issue is just how suddenly and disastrously things crashed, not the overall record. I don't really understand it.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

From 2008–2019, Cutcliffe met the bar for success with flying colors: bowls in half the seasons, 8 wins or more in a third of the seasons, and especially a division title (!) surpassed my wildest expectations. Those stats look even better if you do the reasonable thing and take away the first few years as a pass coming off of historically awful seasons before he was hired.

The issue is just how suddenly and disastrously things crashed, not the overall record. I don't really understand it.

To be accurate, I think you have to mention that 2019 finished in disastrous fashion...a 5 game losing streak, most of which were total routs, and a 2-6 finish over all. The jump pass diaster was in that 5 game losing streak...the only close loss in that time. The season ending win over Miami, sweet at first thought, might've been the "neitherteamgivesadamn" bowl, and really meaningless. Miami had lost to FIU the week before, ruined their season a bit. Did not salvage ours.

[Wander]

To be accurate, I think you have to mention that 2019 finished in disastrous fashion...a 5 game losing streak, most of which were total routs, and a 2-6 finish over all. The jump pass diaster was in that 5 game losing streak...the only close loss in that time. The season ending win over Miami, sweet at first thought, might've been the "neitherteamgivesadamn" bowl, and really meaningless. Miami had lost to FIU the week before, ruined their season a bit. Did not salvage ours.

Sure, no argument there. Still confusing to me why things were so sudden. "Losing the locker room" sounds like a cliche but seems sorta accurate here.

I'll always be grateful for that division title, though. In some alternate universe where we magically have Sean Renfree another year, that team ends 12-2 and ranked in the top 10.

[JBDuke]

AH, knew I was missing something. Yes, Stanford slots in a bit, - JUST A BIT - but Stanford is extraordinarily wealthy school, in extraordinarily wealthy area, and a far bigger population without the huge competition nearby. Cal is considered their neighbor, but Cal is further from Stanford than all of the Big Four are from Duke. They also don't have football as a second tier sport. I see Stanford job as not nearly as difficult as Duke football...although there are comparisons that are analogous.

Actually, Cal and Stanford are only separate by 41 miles on the road, which is about half the distance between Duke and Wake. Bay Area traffic being what it is, it is likely to average longer in the car to travel the distance between Cal and Stanford, though. Your point about Stanford's athletic budget is completely valid, though.

[Acymetric]

Sure, no argument there. Still confusing to me why things were so sudden. "Losing the locker room" sounds like a cliche but seems sorta accurate here.

I'll always be grateful for that division title, though. In some alternate universe where we magically have Sean Renfree another year, that team ends 12-2 and ranked in the top 10.

I guess for my part (I don't think I am alone) there have been red flags since probably 2015 (the late season collapse, not the Miami game). We arguably underperformed with Daniel Jones at center (he never even managed an honorable mention All-Conference nod), and we have had games where the team seemed to give up almost every year since. The number of blowout losses was also somewhat alarming (even before the last couple years). So this didn't exactly come out of nowhere, it is more the conclusion of a slow trend downward.

[ecs15]

Also, while the Coastal is still a laughingstock P5 division, the coaching talent has significantly increased

Mike London ain't around any more

[Devilsforlife]

I guess for my part (I don't think I am alone) there have been red flags since probably 2015 (the late season collapse, not the Miami game). We arguably underperformed with Daniel Jones at center (he never even managed an honorable mention All-Conference nod), and we have had games where the team seemed to give up almost every year since. The number of blowout losses was also somewhat alarming (even before the last couple years). So this didn't exactly come out of nowhere, it is more the conclusion of a slow trend downward.

To me, there have been a number of points in the decline.

-2015 Miami: this robbery is when we stopped competing for Coastal titles, having been in the race every year starting with 2012.
-2016: the 4-8 year, when our offense noticably declined following the departure of Scottie Montgomery, and promotion of Zac Roper to OC. John Latina also retired after 2015, and the OL went from a huge strength to a major weakeness.
-2018: Jim Knowles left for Oklahoma State, and the defense entered a similar spiral. The 59-7 evisceration against Wake in the finale was also the first game Duke quit under Cut, a sign of things to follow.
-2019: the halfback pass on the goal line at Kenan, which is when we stopped being competitive in the ACC, as our 2-19 record in the last 21 league games showcases. There were several more blowouts where the effort was subpar, too.
-2020: Covid, and the Chase Brice experiment, which was a miserable failure. Gunnar has played better this year than Brice ever did, and I wish Cut had given him some opportunities. The Brice pickup seemed exciting at first, but the plug should've been pulled by mid-season at latest.
-2021: the Charlotte and GT late game collapses, which were the final nails in the coffin. If we get stops to close out those two games, Duke is 5-5, with 2 home games left to reach bowl eligibility.

It's been a combination of talented assistants leaving and not being adequately replaced, a swing and a miss at QB, and some devastating losses (Miami 15, UNC 19, Charlotte and GT this year) that killed the program's mojo. Back in early 2019 I truly thought Cut would be coaching Duke until the mid-2020s, making minor bowls most years, but things really imploded.

[sagegrouse]

Miami is indeed a private school, but along with Southern Cal (another private school) - those two stand alone. Due to the essence of their names...they do enjoy a lot of the natural advantages of being a "University of." U of Miami. U of S Cal. They don't get ALL the advantages of being a University of...they don't have the large student bodies, for example...and therefore not the large local alumni base that goes with it. But they do get the geographical cache.

Duke has no such advantage, and neither do the other schools on my list. I left Miami and Southern Cal off intentionally.

SC (never called "Southern Cal" on the Left Coast)) has a total enrollment of 49,500, including 21,000 undergraduates. I don't think there is another private university within miles of it in size of student body.

[Tripping William]

SC (never called "Southern Cal" on the Left Coast)) has a total enrollment of 49,500, including 21,000 undergraduates. I don't think there is another private university within miles of it in size of student body.

And yet Brigham Young University’s 36,000 students (33,000 undergrads) say hi. And talk about recruiting challenges ……

[CrazyNotCrazie]

SC (never called "Southern Cal" on the Left Coast)) has a total enrollment of 49,500, including 21,000 undergraduates. I don't think there is another private university within miles of it in size of student body.

I knew NYU was big but not quite this big - 29,700 undergrads, 53,576 total. And no football team. I went to one of their basketball games right before covid and it was a decent crowd (the game was played at Hunter College as I think they are rebuilding the NYU gym).

https://www.nyu.edu/about/news-publi...-a-glance.html

[sagegrouse]

And yet Brigham Young University’s 36,000 students (33,000 undergrads) say hi. And talk about recruiting challenges ……

I knew NYU was big but not quite this big - 29,700 undergrads, 53,576 total. And no football team. I went to one of their basketball games right before covid and it was a decent crowd (the game was played at Hunter College as I think they are rebuilding the NYU gym).

https://www.nyu.edu/about/news-publi...-a-glance.html

I was wondering about BYU but never thought of the Violets in Greenwich Village.

[Sixthman]

To me, there have been a number of points in the decline.

-2015 Miami: this robbery is when we stopped competing for Coastal titles, having been in the race every year starting with 2012.
-2016: the 4-8 year, when our offense noticably declined following the departure of Scottie Montgomery, and promotion of Zac Roper to OC. John Latina also retired after 2015, and the OL went from a huge strength to a major weakeness.
-2018: Jim Knowles left for Oklahoma State, and the defense entered a similar spiral. The 59-7 evisceration against Wake in the finale was also the first game Duke quit under Cut, a sign of things to follow.
-2019: the halfback pass on the goal line at Kenan, which is when we stopped being competitive in the ACC, as our 2-19 record in the last 21 league games showcases. There were several more blowouts where the effort was subpar, too.
-2020: Covid, and the Chase Brice experiment, which was a miserable failure. Gunnar has played better this year than Brice ever did, and I wish Cut had given him some opportunities. The Brice pickup seemed exciting at first, but the plug should've been pulled by mid-season at latest.
-2021: the Charlotte and GT late game collapses, which were the final nails in the coffin. If we get stops to close out those two games, Duke is 5-5, with 2 home games left to reach bowl eligibility.

It's been a combination of talented assistants leaving and not being adequately replaced, a swing and a miss at QB, and some devastating losses (Miami 15, UNC 19, Charlotte and GT this year) that killed the program's mojo. Back in early 2019 I truly thought Cut would be coaching Duke until the mid-2020s, making minor bowls most years, but things really imploded.

I would add to this list a crucial and winnable game with the team kind of on a roll a few years ago against Virginia Tech — I can’t remember what year — which would have elevated the program and which instead produced a no show performance.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

I would add to this list a crucial and winnable game with the team kind of on a roll a few years ago against Virginia Tech — I can’t remember what year — which would have elevated the program and which instead produced a no show performance.

We had a few "over the hump" moments where I felt like Duke was on the verge of moving to the next level...second half of Texas A and M game, the Miami halloween disaster, the Va Tech game you referred to, a few others....just couldn't ever seem to win one of those. The only exception might've been the Pinstripe Bowl game...was hoping it would wash the Miami game away....(felt like we got a break on a FG call)....but it didn't.

I also felt like the "jump pass" game was a chance to kind of turn things back in the right direction. Man, since that play, I'd hate to see the cumulative score between Duke and our opponents.