Tracking the Duke Transfers

[FUBARDoorBuster]

Coach K has had some duds. Let's be honest. Every coach has.

Coach K is arguably the GOAT because no coach is better at motivating players and he's translated his in-game success into recruiting success.

I think the staff gets surprised now and then. One example was the surprise that MHurt could not bench his own weight as a freshman. That's how I heard it when they bragged that Keels set the freshman record for reps for 185 lbs

[tommy]

I think the staff gets surprised now and then. One example was the surprise that MHurt could not bench his own weight as a freshman. That's how I heard it when they bragged that Keels set the freshman record for reps for 185 lbs

You don't think during the recruiting process that the coaches get reports on how the guys are doing in the weight room? That would be very surprising. I'm pretty sure the coaches are more thorough than that.

Also, did they say that Keels set the freshman record for bench press reps w/ 185 lbs? I thought they said he set the all-time Duke record for all players, which took me by surprise, since I thought the (new) record holder in that department was Theo John. Maybe I misheard.

[CDu]

Not only do you not know what a guy is going to be like physically until they arrive and start competing against high level college players, but you don't know what a guy is going to be like mentally/emotionally. How ready is he going to be in that department? Obviously Keels was ready for the moment; the moment and the stage were not too big for him. Fortunately for us. But I don't think that was something that was knowable in advance.

That is not to say that he isn't going to have his struggles. He will. He's not going to average 25 ppg and dominate every night like he dominated Kentucky's guards. He'll have his duds.

Frankly I'm as excited about what Trevor showed defensively as what he showed with his ability to play bully ball on the offensive end. He completely took TyTy Washington out of the game. But for sure, everyone associated with Duke has to be thrilled about what we saw in game 1 from him overall, and what it bodes for the potential of this team.

Yep, completely agreed. You just never know.

Wendell Moore had the Justise Winslow type of pedigree as a recruit. He clearly didn't turn into Winslow as a freshman, and it took a few years for it to come together.

Mason Plumlee was being talked about by Duke and by folks around Duke (Bilas was talking him up in a big way as a freshman) as this multidimensional do-it-all forward. It became clear in game action that his skill set wasn't quite that high, and it took a few years for his play to reach All-ACC level (and it was a different skill set than what he was envisioned as coming in).

Chris Duhon was a knockdown shooter with combo guard skills coming out of high school. He became a poor-shooting, elite defensive and pass-first PG almost immediately, and stayed that way for his 4 years.

Mike Dunleavy was the "consolation prize" behind Casey Jacobsen as a 6'5"-ish SG with big-time talent. Jacobsen went to Stanford, we got Dunleavy instead... and then Dunleavy grew 3-4 inches and became a combo forward with guard-like skills.

Sometimes talent doesn't pan out at the college level. Sometimes it pans out in different ways (like Plumlee and Duhon). Sometimes the talent exceeds expectations (as it did with Dunleavy, and appears may be the case for Keels).

You just never know until they start playing. And even then, sometimes you don't know for a few years in.

[sagegrouse]

I don't think Duke offered Roach 3 years ago because they saw brilliance in Keels as a freshman.

I do think they liked what they saw in junior Keels when they offered him. But I don't think they knew he'd be this good. They surely hoped it. But you don't really know what most players will be until they arrive.

I'm sure they hoped that Moore would be as a freshman what Keels is as a freshman, too.

You probably know, CDu, what I am railing against*: the implicit assumption that the wisdom of the known basketball universe is fully represented in the RSCI. I happen to think that K's success is in part the ability to evaluate players better than other coaches, not to mention -- ahem -- the "characters" on line who do recruiting rankings.

Kindly,
Sage
* What does "to rail" really mean? Well, "to scold or complain in harsh or bitter language," per Merriam-Webster. I guess it is related to the bird family "rallidae" -- which includes the king rail, clapper rail ("marsh hens"), Virginia rail etc. These birds have loud and repetitive calls that can be quite harsh -- and they are usually well hidden in reeds and marshes.

[CDu]

You probably know, CDu, what I am railing against*: the implicit assumption that the wisdom of the known basketball universe is fully represented in the RSCI. I happen to think that K's success is in part the ability to evaluate players better than other coaches, not to mention -- ahem -- the "characters" on line who do recruiting rankings.

Kindly,
Sage
* What does "to rail" really mean? Well, "to scold or complain in harsh or bitter language," per Merriam-Webster. I guess it is related to the bird family "rallidae" -- which includes the king rail, clapper rail ("marsh hens"), Virginia rail etc. These birds have loud and repetitive calls that can be quite harsh -- and they are usually well hidden in reeds and marshes.

Yes, I understand your argument. But I don’t think the evidence supports this view. The RSCI has been extremely predictive of our success. Not a 100% correlation, but pretty darn close to it. We have had exceedingly few guys outside the top-20 exceed expectations at Duke.

Generally speaking, Coach K’s success in the “current” era (read, since my freshman class of Brand, Battier, Burgess, and Avery) has coincided with his ability to get more of the guys everyone agrees are studs. When we have gotten those guys who folks thought would be studs AND those guys guys turned out to be studs, our teams have been great.

Coach K is the GOAT, for a variety of reasons. Motivation, organization, and being able to adapt over time. But I don’t think he is the GOAT because of ability to find diamonds in the rough. In fact, I would say he hasn’t shown much ability to find diamonds in the rough for at least the past 25-30 years. What he has instead done is successfully rebrand himself and Duke over time so as to keep landing the elite talent that all the big boys are recruiting.

[tommy]

Yes, I understand your argument. But I don’t think the evidence supports this view. The RSCI has been extremely predictive of our success. Not a 100% correlation, but pretty darn close to it. We have had exceedingly few guys outside the top-20 exceed expectations at Duke.

Generally speaking, Coach K’s success in the “current” era (read, since my freshman class of Brand, Battier, Burgess, and Avery) has coincided with his ability to get more of the guys everyone agrees are studs. When we have gotten those guys who folks thought would be studs AND those guys guys turned out to be studs, our teams have been great.

Coach K is the GOAT, for a variety of reasons. Motivation, organization, and being able to adapt over time. But I don’t think he is the GOAT because of ability to find diamonds in the rough. In fact, I would say he hasn’t shown much ability to find diamonds in the rough for at least the past 25-30 years. What he has instead done is successfully rebrand himself and Duke over time so as to keep landing the elite talent that all the big boys are recruiting.

Yeah I agree. Coach K has been an absolutely fabulous recruiter and his every-year success on the recruiting trail has been mind boggling, really. But he's not infallible. He has missed on a number of guys he's brought in, as has been discussed over many threads here over the years. And he has also missed on guys (if that's the right term) that he tried very hard to recruit but didn't get, and they turned out to not be very good college players. BJ Boston last year is just one example.

Also, while bringing in Trevor Keels turned into a priority, he was not always so. If I recall correctly, the recruitment of Keels heated up pretty late in the game. The guy we wanted badly at the 2 originally was Max Christie, who went to Michigan State. And then Pat Baldwin, although bigger, was obviously also a major target as a shooter.

These things are fluid. Apparent misses can turn into hits, and vice versa. K has hit a LOT more than he has missed but I have not perceived a significant difference in his evaluation of the top players (as measured by the RSCI) than the other top coaches. He's just been better at reeling them in.

[weezie]

Nice tommy. Excellent observations.

[jimsumner]

Yep, completely agreed. You just never know.

Wendell Moore had the Justise Winslow type of pedigree as a recruit. He clearly didn't turn into Winslow as a freshman, and it took a few years for it to come together.

Mason Plumlee was being talked about by Duke and by folks around Duke (Bilas was talking him up in a big way as a freshman) as this multidimensional do-it-all forward. It became clear in game action that his skill set wasn't quite that high, and it took a few years for his play to reach All-ACC level (and it was a different skill set than what he was envisioned as coming in).

Chris Duhon was a knockdown shooter with combo guard skills coming out of high school. He became a poor-shooting, elite defensive and pass-first PG almost immediately, and stayed that way for his 4 years.

Mike Dunleavy was the "consolation prize" behind Casey Jacobsen as a 6'5"-ish SG with big-time talent. Jacobsen went to Stanford, we got Dunleavy instead... and then Dunleavy grew 3-4 inches and became a combo forward with guard-like skills.

Sometimes talent doesn't pan out at the college level. Sometimes it pans out in different ways (like Plumlee and Duhon). Sometimes the talent exceeds expectations (as it did with Dunleavy, and appears may be the case for Keels).

You just never know until they start playing. And even then, sometimes you don't know for a few years in.

Mike Dunleavy was NOT a consolation prize behind Jacobsen. Jacobsen wanted to commit to Duke but only if Duke stopped recruiting Dunleavy. K hoped to bring both of them in but when he told Jacobsen he was going to continue to recruit Dunleavy, Jacobsen committed to Stanford.

[Skydog]

Mike Dunleavy was NOT a consolation prize behind Jacobsen. Jacobsen wanted to commit to Duke but only if Duke stopped recruiting Dunleavy. K hoped to bring both of them in but when he told Jacobsen he was going to continue to recruit Dunleavy, Jacobsen committed to Stanford.

Jim, why are you bringing facts into a good argument? That is sooo old school.

[CDu]

Mike Dunleavy was NOT a consolation prize behind Jacobsen. Jacobsen wanted to commit to Duke but only if Duke stopped recruiting Dunleavy. K hoped to bring both of them in but when he told Jacobsen he was going to continue to recruit Dunleavy, Jacobsen committed to Stanford.

Consolation prize in that Jacobsen was considered the better player at the time, and that we very much wanted Jacobsen.

But the more important point in my post being that Dunleavy later grew 3-4 inches and thus exceeded expectations. Jacobsen was just a side story here.

[UrinalCake]

Also, did they say that Keels set the freshman record for bench press reps w/ 185 lbs? I thought they said he set the all-time Duke record for all players, which took me by surprise, since I thought the (new) record holder in that department was Theo John. Maybe I misheard.

I’m almost positive that Keels set the freshman record and that the announcers were incorrect.

[JasonEvans]

Time for a quick update of this thread--

After his 27 point explosion in game one, Henry Coleman has come back to Earth a bit for Texas A&M. He got 9, 10, and 4 points in his next 3 games and 9, 4, and 3 rebounds. After taking 17 shots in game one, he has been a non-factor in the offensive game plan, taking only 11 total shots over his next 3 contests. Will be interesting to track Henry's playing time and role for TA&M as they move into some more challenging games (they've got Wisconsin, TCU, and Tulane over the next few weeks).

JGold is averaging a career high 9.0ppg and 4.0apg for Oklahoma through their first 5 contests. Small sample size, but he only has 3 steals in 5 games. He's playing 27 minutes per contest, slightly less than he did last year at Duke.

Jaemyn Brakefield is averaging 10.6ppg and 4.6rpg so far for Miss St. He's hitting better than 41% on his 3-pointers and getting close to 22 minutes per game of playing time.

And Patrick Tape is playing 21 minutes per game for the undefeated San Francisco Dons (#35 in KenPom). He gets 5.0ppg and 3.8rpg for them. By the way, did you know that Patrick Tape was in college the same time as Jayson Tatum? High school class of 2016.



Also, from another thread, I thought this was a good place to mention this:

That's what happens when you lose two of your main bigs (especially Kessler, who was a legit shot blocker).

Walker Kessler was touted by some as the most significant big man transfer in the country in the off-season. He had his pick of schools and picked Auburn. Well, things have not gone exactly great for him thus far. He is averaging just 4.3 points and 5.7 rebounds per game so far at Auburn. He is blocking shots at a fabulous rate -- 3.5 per game -- considering he plays just 22 minutes per game. But, the notion that he would be an All-SEC kinda player in year one at Auburn seems a wee bit premature.

[CrazyNotCrazie]

Time for a quick update of this thread--

After his 27 point explosion in game one, Henry Coleman has come back to Earth a bit for Texas A&M. He got 9, 10, and 4 points in his next 3 games and 9, 4, and 3 rebounds. After taking 17 shots in game one, he has been a non-factor in the offensive game plan, taking only 11 total shots over his next 3 contests. Will be interesting to track Henry's playing time and role for TA&M as they move into some more challenging games (they've got Wisconsin, TCU, and Tulane over the next few weeks).

JGold is averaging a career high 9.0ppg and 4.0apg for Oklahoma through their first 5 contests. Small sample size, but he only has 3 steals in 5 games. He's playing 27 minutes per contest, slightly less than he did last year at Duke.

Jaemyn Brakefield is averaging 10.6ppg and 4.6rpg so far for Miss St. He's hitting better than 41% on his 3-pointers and getting close to 22 minutes per game of playing time.

And Patrick Tape is playing 21 minutes per game for the undefeated San Francisco Dons (#35 in KenPom). He gets 5.0ppg and 3.8rpg for them. By the way, did you know that Patrick Tape was in college the same time as Jayson Tatum? High school class of 2016.



Also, from another thread, I thought this was a good place to mention this:


Walker Kessler was touted by some as the most significant big man transfer in the country in the off-season. He had his pick of schools and picked Auburn. Well, things have not gone exactly great for him thus far. He is averaging just 4.3 points and 5.7 rebounds per game so far at Auburn. He is blocking shots at a fabulous rate -- 3.5 per game -- considering he plays just 22 minutes per game. But, the notion that he would be an All-SEC kinda player in year one at Auburn seems a wee bit premature.

Thanks for the update, Jason.

Going back another year, your post led me to look up Alex O'Connell. He has started all five of Creighton's games so far and is averaging 13.6 pts and 7 rebounds a game, playing 30+ minutes in every game.

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Mike Dunleavy was the "consolation prize" behind Casey Jacobsen as a 6'5"-ish SG with big-time talent. Jacobsen went to Stanford, we got Dunleavy instead... and then Dunleavy grew 3-4 inches and became a combo forward with guard-like skills.

Sometimes talent doesn't pan out at the college level. Sometimes it pans out in different ways (like Plumlee and Duhon). Sometimes the talent exceeds expectations (as it did with Dunleavy, and appears may be the case for Keels).

You just never know until they start playing. And even then, sometimes you don't know for a few years in.

Some cases in point...a la Dunleavy. Navy's David Robinson was about 6-5 coming out of HS...and pretty decent small forward skills. Put that in a 7 foot package and BAM...you have hall of famer. Googs at State was like 6-5 coming out of HS if I remember...Valvano recruited him because he was Italian. Six inches later, he's a fantastic stretch 4.

[OldPhiKap]

Time for a quick update of this thread--

After his 27 point explosion in game one, Henry Coleman has come back to Earth a bit for Texas A&M. He got 9, 10, and 4 points in his next 3 games and 9, 4, and 3 rebounds. After taking 17 shots in game one, he has been a non-factor in the offensive game plan, taking only 11 total shots over his next 3 contests. Will be interesting to track Henry's playing time and role for TA&M as they move into some more challenging games (they've got Wisconsin, TCU, and Tulane over the next few weeks).

JGold is averaging a career high 9.0ppg and 4.0apg for Oklahoma through their first 5 contests. Small sample size, but he only has 3 steals in 5 games. He's playing 27 minutes per contest, slightly less than he did last year at Duke.

Jaemyn Brakefield is averaging 10.6ppg and 4.6rpg so far for Miss St. He's hitting better than 41% on his 3-pointers and getting close to 22 minutes per game of playing time.

And Patrick Tape is playing 21 minutes per game for the undefeated San Francisco Dons (#35 in KenPom). He gets 5.0ppg and 3.8rpg for them. By the way, did you know that Patrick Tape was in college the same time as Jayson Tatum? High school class of 2016.

Thanks for the update, Jason.

Going back another year, your post led me to look up Alex O'Connell. He has started all five of Creighton's games so far and is averaging 13.6 pts and 7 rebounds a game, playing 30+ minutes in every game.

Best of luck to all of them. I hope it works out for each!

[chrishoke]

Is Henry Coleman hurt? He did not plauy in Texas A&M's last game and played only 10 minutes the game bewfore.

[DukieInBrasil]

I think it was good for Duke too. I like Goldwire and he did some nice things especially defensively so I don't want to ignore that. But I think this year's team is better off with Roach as the clear #1 point guard (I know, I know, other guys are going to handle and initiate and distribute too) without having to look over his shoulder that every time he makes a mistake he's going to get pulled for Goldwire and his senior experience. We need Jeremy to be playing with confidence, and having him be the clear #1 at his position, starting every game and getting major minutes with the ball in his hands a lot is a good way to help with his confidence. Jeremy Roach being the best he can be can bring this team to a whole 'nother level.

JGold has been about as good or better than Jeremy has been so far. JGold is shooting waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaayyy better than Roach, but Roach is slightly better in most other stats. Roach is also playing more minutes, and is less efficient, but has also played against better competition.

I'm still not much of a Roach fan. Hope he proves me wrong.

I think Duke would be playing better this year with JGold than without. Starting JGold alongside Roach, with Keels subbing in for either of them, would make Duke a better overall team.

[JasonEvans]

Is Henry Coleman hurt? He did not plauy in Texas A&M's last game and played only 10 minutes the game bewfore.

He suffered from a lower back contusion. He is expected to be back for their next game.

[tommy]

JGold has been about as good or better than Jeremy has been so far. JGold is shooting waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaayyy better than Roach, but Roach is slightly better in most other stats. Roach is also playing more minutes, and is less efficient, but has also played against better competition.


I think Duke would be playing better this year with JGold than without. Starting JGold alongside Roach, with Keels subbing in for either of them, would make Duke a better overall team.

Duke would be a deeper team if JGold was on the roster, but I don't think the team would be any better. He's a strong defender who doesn't force the action and distribute (or at least didn't when he was at Duke) and doesn't shoot well. That's pretty much what Roach has been thus far, and really Keels as well other than vs. Kentucky. Having Goldwire to come off the bench and basically replicate what Roach is doing would be fine, and having another veteran around is always good, but in terms of production, I don't think he'd be adding much to what we already have. Plus I think Roach and Keels have significantly higher ceilings than JGold. With him, the cake seems baked.

[DukieInBrasil]

Duke would be a deeper team if JGold was on the roster, but I don't think the team would be any better. He's a strong defender who doesn't force the action and distribute (or at least didn't when he was at Duke) and doesn't shoot well. That's pretty much what Roach has been thus far, and really Keels as well other than vs. Kentucky. Having Goldwire to come off the bench and basically replicate what Roach is doing would be fine, and having another veteran around is always good, but in terms of production, I don't think he'd be adding much to what we already have. Plus I think Roach and Keels have significantly higher ceilings than JGold. With him, the cake seems baked.

I guess my point is that JGold would be a better starting option than Keels. He's as good or better as a defender (perhaps not quite as versatile) and was a better shooter last year and so far this year than Keels has been. YMMV, but JGold's ability to recognize when he should be shooting vs Keels' inability to recognize same would make for a large increase in offensive efficiency for the team. I'm not trying to be down on Keels, but he's getting more minutes than he otherwise would be getting, and my view is that JGold's experience would prevent the drag on efficiency that Keels has been so far.
Additionally, our defense would be much better as Baker and Griffin's minutes would be reduced with JGold still on the roster. Also, I'm more interested in team performance than what the eventual "ceiling" of any player might be, and i think that JGold would make this team better even if it meant reduced minutes for Keels, Roach, Baker and Griffin.