2021-22 Degenerate Gamblers pre-season picking contest

[UrinalCake]

Yeah, I understand the basic concept I just always get it backwards in my head for whatever reason. I see the plus sign and intuitively think it means that team is better when it actually means the opposite. Anyways, I've been betting heavy on Duke all season and it has paid off big time, as it has for most of the board apparently. Last year when the team rarely covered it seemed like everyone was in the negative except for Mr. Swift.

[ChillinDuke]

Lines for the first full day of the ACC-Big Ten Challenge are up:

Indiana -2.5 Syracuse (146)
Minnesota -2.5 Pitt (128)
Purdue -11 Florida St (142.5)
Northwestern +2 Wake Forest (144)
Rutgers -1.5 Clemson (126.5)
Ohio State +3 Duke (147)

I kinda like FSU to cover, 11 points is a lot, and I love Duke against a banged up Ohio St team. I think Indiana should handle Syracuse with relative ease too.

I have Syracuse at home getting points, in a game where they need to show something after losing 2 out of 3 in Atlantis. I think the defense will be improved. I'm on Cuse in this one.

- Chillin

Got you good, huh Jason?

Unfortunately, I also took the under in that game, which went to double overtime...

Oh and I also bet on FSU...

And Minnesota...

Hate betting.

- Chillin

[Phredd3]

Congrats, GreenWaveDukie. I was -2750 yesterday, taking an 0-fer, and falling predictably out of the lead. It was fun while it lasted...

[JasonEvans]

Congrats, GreenWaveDukie. I was -2750 yesterday, taking an 0-fer, and falling predictably out of the lead.

And I thought my 2-6 for -1600 was a bad day...

I'm getting perilously close to being knocked out... whew, it feels like every time I feel confident in a wager, I am dead wrong. Good thing these are virtual bucks, not the real thing!

[Phredd3]

And I thought my 2-6 for -1600 was a bad day...

I'm getting perilously close to being knocked out... whew, it feels like every time I feel confident in a wager, I am dead wrong. Good thing these are virtual bucks, not the real thing!

Yeah, I'm smart enough not to gamble with actual money. I know my limits.

[Green Wave Dukie]

Congrats, GreenWaveDukie. I was -2750 yesterday, taking an 0-fer, and falling predictably out of the lead. It was fun while it lasted...

Shout out to Phredd3, who has led this thing this preseason pretty much from the opening game, and despite having a multi-thousand-point lead, he has continued to wager his customary 500. He's obviously not a fan of Dean's 4 corner, stall ball wagering, and has given the rest of us a chance.

Looks like positions 1 - 5 are all active again tonight. Have a feeling the leader board will be shifting a bit in the next 5 hours.

[Phredd3]

Just to clarify, in-conference games are in okay, correct? I hope so, anyway, because I’ve already placed a couple wagers on tomorrow’s contests. But since those are clearly “games involving at least one ACC team”, I should be good with those picks, right?

[Green Wave Dukie]

Just to clarify, in-conference games are in okay, correct? I hope so, anyway, because I’ve already placed a couple wagers on tomorrow’s contests. But since those are clearly “games involving at least one ACC team”, I should be good with those picks, right?

Phredd3 - don't worry, I just jumped in w/ya. Surely the Commish wouldn't DQ the leaders atop the standings at this juncture in the contest, would he? Or, maybe he would! Or, maybe he will now!!

[Daddylawman]

I'm curious if y'all have a method to how you pick, or is it just your gut on each game? My method (which I clearly don't recommend emulating) is to look at the game without looking at the spread. In my head I make my own prediction of the final spread. Then I look at the line and if it's 2.5 points or more from my guess I make a bet. I'm not effective, but I am consistent.

[JasonEvans]

Yes, in-conference games count. We will start the full conference contest at the end of the month when ACC teams are really only playing conference games.

[Phredd3]

I'm curious if y'all have a method to how you pick, or is it just your gut on each game? My method (which I clearly don't recommend emulating) is to look at the game without looking at the spread. In my head I make my own prediction of the final spread. Then I look at the line and if it's 2.5 points or more from my guess I make a bet. I'm not effective, but I am consistent.

I'm hesitant to give advice, not because I'm in the lead, but because I've never been in the lead before and have no confidence that what I'm doing is the right thing. I actually start with the spread and Torvik, as well as a healthy dose of intuition about where the values might be based on things the computer models may miss (recent injuries, off-court happenings, human factors, etc.). If I see a disparity I think I can exploit, I'll take a shot.

I also have two cardinal rules (having nothing to do with being good at wagering) which I've broken on occasion, almost always to my detriment: 1. Never bet on a Duke game, and 2. only bet on UNC to beat the spread, never against or on the o/u. Otherwise the emotional toll is too high when I'm wrong.

[Daddylawman]

I'm hesitant to give advice, not because I'm in the lead, but because I've never been in the lead before and have no confidence that what I'm doing is the right thing. I actually start with the spread and Torvik, as well as a healthy dose of intuition about where the values might be based on things the computer models may miss (recent injuries, off-court happenings, human factors, etc.). If I see a disparity I think I can exploit, I'll take a shot.

I also have two cardinal rules (having nothing to do with being good at wagering) which I've broken on occasion, almost always to my detriment: 1. Never bet on a Duke game, and 2. only bet on UNC to beat the spread, never against or on the o/u. Otherwise the emotional toll is too high when I'm wrong.

Same about Duke - but never on the Cheats, I can never want thenm to be successful. My roommate senior year wrote for the Chronicle (80's folks may remember BCG), his most sage advice "Never underestimate the Carolina 'out of their backside' factor" (Apparently slang for backside is not permitted)

[Bob Green]

These non-conference games are really difficult to predict especially the games with large spreads. I placed five bets but have low confidence. It is just a crap shoot.

[NYBri]

I'm back for another beating. Am here to show how far a former two-time champ can fall.

[Green Wave Dukie]

I'm back for another beating. Am here to show how far a former two-time champ can fall.

Welcome Back, NYBri. Impressive out of the gate. In 3 hours you are at 1,000 points. Picking up right where you left off. I see.

[Bob Green]

It is just a crap shoot.

I went 3-2 Saturday. Placed four bets this morning.

[Bob Green]

Duke vs Elon game is not available to bet this morning. I picked Indiana (-4) over Notre Dame and Kentucky (-2.5) over Carolina.

[dukebluesincebirth]

Any sports gamblers on here that have a Bovada account? Crazy couple of days— website either crashed or was hacked, and no one can access accounts. Millions of people and millions of $$ are frozen. They keep tweeting updates assuring everyone that $ is safe, but…. People are getting really frustrated bc it’s bowl season and they can’t wager or get to their funds. I’ve had an account with them for years, thankfully not much money in it rn. But I do have a bet pending on the super bowl champ. If not resolved soon, Bovada will lose significant customers. Yikes

[Bob Green]

Duke vs Elon game is available. Currently, Duke is 28.5 points favorite.

[Phredd3]

Duke vs Elon game is available. Currently, Duke is 28.5 points favorite.

I'm going to follow my practice and not bet on Duke. I do have a lot of FMUs riding on other teams today, though.