DBR Podcast Episode #354 - Stats Game!

[Dev11]

The stats game is up wherever you get podcasts! I'm working on a survey for listeners to play along with us, but for now, here are the categories and picks:

stats game 2021-2022.jpg

[JasonEvans]

Ok, first of all, here is the pod if you want to listen (and you know you want to listen!!)
https://cms.megaphone.fm/channel/duk...=VMP7338754616

After listening, here is where all of you come in... Here are the categories to predict for the upcoming season as well as the picks that Sam, Donald, and I made. We welcome anyone else who wants to try to beat us in predictions. IF anyone beats us, we will be sure to shout you out on the podcast at the end of the season! What better reward is there than that?!?!

Duke's leader in...

Points per game:

Sam - Paolo 20.2, Donald - Paolo 20.1, Jason - Paolo 18.7

Rebounds per game:

Sam - Paolo, Donald - Paolo, Jason - Mark

Blocks per game:

Sam - Mark 2.3, Donald - Mark 2.5, Jason - Mark 2.9

Assists per game:

Sam - Roach 4.5, Donald - Roach 5.6, Jason - Roach 5.1

Steals per game:

Sam - Moore, Donald - Keels, Jason - Moore

FG percentage:

Sam - Mark 67%, Donald - Mark 69%, Jason - Mark 62%

3FG percentage:

Sam - Keels, Donald - Griffin, Jason - Baker

FT attempts per game:

Sam - Paolo 6.3, Donald - Paolo 5.8, Jason - Paolo 6.8

FG attempts per game:

Sam - Paolo 13, Donald - Paolo 12, Jason - Paolo 12.5

How many different players will lead Duke in scoring in a game this year?

Sam - 6, Donald - 5, Jason - 5

How many double-doubles will Paolo record this year?

Sam - 15, Donald - 13, Jason - 16

How many games will Trevor Keels not start this season?

Sam - 9, Donald - 5, Jason - 3

How many games will Joey Baker start this season?

Sam - 3, Donald - 4, Jason - 1

How many minutes will Theo John play this year?

Sam - 415, Donald - 400, Jason - 570

How many 3-pointers will Bates Jones make this season?

Sam - 6, Donald - 8, Jason - 5

How many players will log at least 300 minutes of playing time?

Sam - 7, Donald - 8, Jason - 8

How many total points will be scored by the walk-ons (Savarino, Worthington, Hubbard, Borden)?

Sam - 7, Donald - 10, Jason - 5

How many times will Duke score 100+ points in a game?

Sam - 2, Donald - 2, Jason - 1

What will be Duke's KenPom Def ranking when the regular season ends (after the ACC tourney, but before the NCAA tourney)?

Sam - 16, Donald - 14, Jason - 8

How many road games will Duke win this season (Duke plays 11 road games)?

Sam - 8, Donald - 8, Jason - 7

How many ACC teams will make the NCAA tournament?

Sam - 9, Donald - 6, Jason - 8

How many games will Duke win this season?

Sam - 31, Donald - 36, Jason - 35

How many times will Wendell Moore get at least 10 points, 5 assists, and 5 rebounds in the same game?

Sam - 7, Donald - 9, Jason - 11

[UrinalCake]

Haven't seen a poll yet so I'm adding my picks here. Overall my guiding principles are that
- We have seven home games against easy OOC opponents (not even including Cleveland State who should be pretty good) and the ACC is down this year. So I think we're going to have a lot of blowout wins that will skew the numbers.
- We don't have a traditional point guard and Moore is going to have the ball in his hands A LOT
- Not everyone is going to stay healthy for the entire season

The fact that I already know what all three of you picked makes this not fair at all, because I can just go one over or one below whatever was picked. But I tried to be fair and pick the actual numbers I think will happen.


Points per game:
Paolo 18.0

Rebounds per game:
Paolo

Blocks per game:
Mark 2.1 (I think teams will stop attacking him once he establishes his reputation as an elite shot blocker)

Assists per game:
Moore

Steals per game:
Roach

FG percentage:
Theo (he'll far fewer attempts than Mark, but entirely dunks and layups. I don't know what the minumum number of attempts to qualify is, but assume he'll have enough)

3FG percentage:
Baker

FT attempts per game:
Paolo 6.0

FG attempts per game:
Moore

How many different players will lead Duke in scoring in a game this year?
6

How many double-doubles will Paolo record this year?
12 (I think double digit rebounds will be difficult when Mark and John are always on the floor with him)

How many games will Trevor Keels not start this season?
5

How many games will Joey Baker start this season?
3

How many minutes will Theo John play this year?
375 (I think we run a lot of lineups with Paolo at the 5, especially when nursing a lead at the end of games. John also unfortunately has an injury history so I think it's likely he has some nagging injuries and/or K limits his minutes to keep him healthy at the end of the season)

How many 3-pointers will Bates Jones make this season?
5

How many players will log at least 300 minutes of playing time?
8

How many total points will be scored by the walk-ons (Savarino, Worthington, Hubbard, Borden)?
20

How many times will Duke score 100+ points in a game?
3

What will be Duke's KenPom Def ranking when the regular season ends (after the ACC tourney, but before the NCAA tourney)?
15

How many road games will Duke win this season (Duke plays 11 road games)?
9

How many ACC teams will make the NCAA tournament?
7

How many games will Duke win this season?
36

How many times will Wendell Moore get at least 10 points, 5 assists, and 5 rebounds in the same game?
5

[Dev11]

At long last, a survey where you can fill out with your picks. Happy guessing!

[UrinalCake]

I'm in, though it wouldn't let me pick Roach for most steals

[Dev11]

I'm in, though it wouldn't let me pick Roach for most steals

Good catch! Updated.

[UrinalCake]

Assists per game:
Moore

I have to say I'm feeling pretty good about this one. So far through five games Moore leads the team with 25 assists, Roach with 20 and Keels with 15.

[UrinalCake]

I must have been really bored because I dug up this thread to see how I did against our podcast hosts. By my count the combined score would be

Sam 9
Donald 8
UrinalCake 8
Jason 5

Which isn't the same result that you came to on the latest episode, but not all of the categories were covered plus the introduction of a fourth participant means that I "stole" points from Donald and also some of the ties were broken up in different ways. At any rate I am happy to report that things were very close except that Jason should maybe stick to sports gambling. Or not.




Points per game:
Sam - Paolo 20.2, Donald - Paolo 20.1, Jason - Paolo 18.7, UC - Paolo 18.0

Rebounds per game:
Sam - Paolo, Donald - Paolo, Jason - Mark, UC - Paolo

Blocks per game:
Sam - Mark 2.3, Donald - Mark 2.5, Jason - Mark 2.9, UC - Mark 2.1

Assists per game:
Sam - Roach 4.5, Donald - Roach 5.6, Jason - Roach 5.1, UC - Moore

Steals per game:
Sam - Moore, Donald - Keels, Jason - Moore, UC - Roach

FG percentage:
Sam - Mark 67%, Donald - Mark 69%, Jason - Mark 62%, UC - Theo

3FG percentage:
Sam - Keels, Donald - Griffin, Jason - Baker, UC - Baker

FT attempts per game:
Sam - Paolo 6.3, Donald - Paolo 5.8, Jason - Paolo 6.8, UC - Paolo 6.0

FG attempts per game:
Sam - Paolo 13, Donald - Paolo 12, Jason - Paolo 12.5, UC - Moore

How many different players will lead Duke in scoring in a game this year?
Sam - 6, Donald - 5, Jason - 5, UC - 6

How many double-doubles will Paolo record this year?
Sam - 15, Donald - 13, Jason - 16, UC - 12

How many games will Trevor Keels not start this season?
Sam - 9, Donald - 5, Jason - 3, UC - 5

How many games will Joey Baker start this season?
Sam - 3, Donald - 4, Jason - 1, UC - 3

How many minutes will Theo John play this year?
Sam - 415, Donald - 400, Jason - 570, UC - 375

How many 3-pointers will Bates Jones make this season?
Sam - 6, Donald - 8, Jason - 5, UC - 5

How many players will log at least 300 minutes of playing time?
Sam - 7, Donald - 8, Jason - 8, UC - 8

How many total points will be scored by the walk-ons (Savarino, Worthington, Hubbard, Borden)?
Sam - 7, Donald - 10, Jason - 5, UC - 20

How many times will Duke score 100+ points in a game?
Sam - 2, Donald - 2, Jason - 1, UC - 3

What will be Duke's KenPom Def ranking when the regular season ends (after the ACC tourney, but before the NCAA tourney)?
Sam - 16, Donald - 14, Jason - 8, UC - 15

How many road games will Duke win this season (Duke plays 11 road games)?
Sam - 8, Donald - 8, Jason - 7, UC - 9

How many ACC teams will make the NCAA tournament?
Sam - 9, Donald - 6, Jason - 8, UC - 7

How many games will Duke win this season?
Sam - 31, Donald - 36, Jason - 35, UC - 36

How many times will Wendell Moore get at least 10 points, 5 assists, and 5 rebounds in the same game?
Sam - 7, Donald - 9, Jason - 11, UC - 5