Duke MBB v Kentucky (11/9, 9:30PM EST, ESPN) Pre-game and In-game Thread

[Billy Dat]

I will leave the in-depth previews to those more versed in that kind of effort, this is more of a one-game reaction.

After our exhibition on Saturday, I noticed that ESPN+ had the Kentucky v Kentucky Wesleyan exhibition from the same day. I checked out most of it.

-First off, neither Jacob Toppin nor CJ Fredrick played in the game and both figure to be rotation players.
-As you are probably aware, this is not your typical NBA-talent-rich Kentucky squad. After last year's losing season, Cal loaded up on the transfer portal. As a result, you aren't immediately wowed by their length and athleticism
-TyTy Washington seems like the real deal, a athletic 6'3" guard with some swagger
-Keion Brooks, their junior wing, was really solid. He nailed a bunch of 3s and generally looked good
-Their primary big man, WVU transfer Oscar Tshiebway, was slowed by a hip issue. He's 6'9" and beefy. Much like our game against W-S State, they had no one who could physically match-up, but we do. Because he was limited, I grade him on a curve. He is a bruiser who attacks the glass but otherwise he seems kind of raw. His back-up, Lance Ware, seemed more like a classic Kentucky guy - very springy and quick but out-of-control
-I wasn't awed by their small PG, Georgia transfer Sahvir Wheeler, nor sharpshooter Kellan Grady, probably because he didn't shoot it very well. I actually thought Davion Mintz, their super-senior, look solid in the backcourt.
-They were looking to run, and pressure full and 3-quarter court. On offense they are gunning 3s, they spread the court around their 5 and look like they are running some dribble drive to free those shooters on the kick or to throw lobs if the driver gets in the lane and draws help.
-Their D was really shaky, definitely not classic Kentucky where the D is solid early in the year and the O needs to catch up.
-Trevor Keels and Wendell's braids are clearly the look this season as several of the Cats were sporting that 'do.

Everyone is lauding their "instant maturity" due to all the high quality transfers but this team has zero continuity from prior years. It doesn't mean they won't be good, but I don't enter our game next Tuesday thinking that there are some kind powerhouse. Of course, thanks to our off year, the same questions can be asked about us, but they have no one on the order of Paolo and I think our talent is, overall, better.

[Native]

The Garden is going to be a madhouse for this one. Can’t wait.

[Billy Dat]

The Garden is going to be a madhouse for this one. Can’t wait.

Yeah, I forgot to mention...I am going to be there! Let's GO!!!!!

[ClemmonsDevil]

This Duke team possesses one Elite skill that is known and perhaps possesses two others. I'm trying not to overreact to what I saw the other day before I proclaim whether or not those two other skills are there or if it was just one game.

The known Elite skill is offensive and defensive post play. Every game Duke should be able to score efficiently and effectively inside and defend at an elite level inside. Duke should bludgeon people in the post all season. That should just be a given.

The other elite skills may be a dominant floor game. Good passing is genetic, and this team seems to have the good passing gene. Couple that with long, strong and athletic wings, then Duke may be excellent at creating turnovers. The early action suggests Duke isn't turnover prone either. So accumulating assists, forcing turnovers and bad shots (a de facto turnover) and not turning it over yourself is a potential elite skill.

Duke may also shoot it much better from the perimeter than I was expecting. I said 2 weeks ago Duke didn't have any 40% shooters from deep on this team. Early returns on Keels, Baker, Jones (who I think averages less than 8 minutes a game but he still may be a great shooter) and Roach suggest this may actually be a very good shooting team. That is an absolute game changer if true. If Duke shoots 37-38% from 3 for the year then I don't know where you go to get stops against this team. 3 point shooting is the skill I most hope this team has.

[CrazyNotCrazie]

Yeah, I forgot to mention...I am going to be there! Let's GO!!!!!

Me too. Hopefully we can turn MSG into Cameron North for Coach K's last game at the Garden.

AJ did not look 100% Saturday but he looked good enough that with another week+ he should be ready to make a good contribution vs. Kentucky, and I think that will be key.

[AGDukesky]

I watched about two minutes of UK’s exhibition before having to turn it off. Kentucky Wesleyan just had no size and Kentucky could just throw the ball at the rim and go get it. I saw no offensive execution from UK and Wesleyan missed a couple of open shots but generally looked inept. It is unfair to cherry pick but I just feel our guys seem further along execution-wise and roles are well understood. Who knows what happens when playing against similar talent but I’ll be more disappointed if Duke loses than I would have two weeks ago….

[Native]

Me too. Hopefully we can turn MSG into Cameron North for Coach K's last game at the Garden.

Will also be there—and everyone I know got blocks of 4 tickets in the presale. Should be a strong contingent.

[DavidBenAkiva]

Here's my long write-up looking at the Kentucky roster.

Duke begins an important year in the history of the program on Tuesday night, November 9th under the bright lights of the big city. Coach K will take the sidelines for the first game of his final season against John Calipari and the Kentucky Wildcats in Madison Square Garden. While both Duke and Kentucky have gotten used to significant roster turnover during the era of one and done, this Kentucky team looks completely different than any other Coach Cal has assembled during his tenure.

This will be the rare experienced roster for Kentucky. It begins in the backcourt, where former Davidson super senior 6’5” G/F Kellan Grady will be a focal point for the offense. Grady has scored more than 2,000 points in his college career and will be the first Kentucky player to have reached that plateau since Kenny Walker played for the Wildcats in 1986. Grady is a smooth 3-level scorer that can fill it up from nearly anywhere on the court. He is a good-but-not-great 3-point shooter (36.6% career 3P%) who made most of his shots off the catch rather than off the dribble. He is more than capable of moving where he needs to in order to get his shot and is accurate in the mid-range and around the rim. He’s smooth but not particularly fast or explosive. While he has played a small handful of games against high-major teams, Grady has not put up efficient scoring in those matchups. For example, his efficiency during the “Maui Invitational” in Asheville, NC last season against Texas and Providence, Grady scored 15.5 pts on just 41.7% FG% while shooting a combined 2-6 from 3. It’s a small sample, obviously, but tracks with similar shooting splits from previous seasons, like against Auburn the previous season.

Coach Cal brought in other experienced guards in the offseason once the one-time transfer waiver was granted. Former Georgia PG Sahvir Wheeler should be starting for Kentucky this season. Wheeler is diminutive at just 5’10” and has struggled to shoot it from the perimeter (22.5%). However, he led the SEC in assists per game as a sophomore at 7.4 but with 4.4 turnovers per game. He earned All-SEC Second Team. Being surrounded by more talent should allow Wheeler to become more efficient as his usage rate declines. One player that could really help is former Iowa SG CJ Fredrick. The 6’3” JR is as deadly a sniper as you’ll find in college, hitting a career 46.6% from behind the arc in 2 years. He has been injured during the preseason and has not appeared in any of the scrimmages or exhibition games. Former Creighton PG Davion Mintz, another super senior (who sat out the 2019-20 season due to the then transfer rules), provided needed stability in the backcourt last season. He’s a “game manager” type that makes a lot of good decisions. Of the experienced guards, perhaps only Grady has NBA aspirations, although he is a super senior and would most likely not be drafted without a great year this season. None of these players are known for being particularly good defenders, either.

The one player that looks like the kind of guards Coach Cal has had during his time in Lexington is, not surprisingly, a freshman, 6’3” G TyTy Washington. By typical guard, I mean he has the athleticism and dynamism to match up against the most athletic and quickest guards in the nation. Washington was a late riser during his senior year of high school and is primed to start this season for Kentucky. He appears to have a complete skillset and can score at all three levels while serving as a secondary ball handler or even primary ball handler for portions of the game. This will be his first game, though, so no telling how he will react to playing against what should be a bigger and equally skilled and athletic crop of guards.

The frontcourt for Kentucky features another transfer, former West Virginia big man Oscar Tshiebwe. “Big O” is like several of the forwards for UK this season, undersized (a 6’9” C) but with length and very athletic for his position. He might be one of the most aggressive and tenacious offensive rebounders to play college basketball. He really goes after loose boards. In his 2 years of college, he has grabbed nearly 1 in every 5 available offensive board. His main skillset in the halfcourt is a mix of decent post moves and a reliable mid-range jumper. He’s not a particularly good rim protector but knows how to use his body and length to bother shots. Starting opposite Tshiebwe will be a rarity for Kentucky, a junior that has stayed all 3 years. Keion Brooks is an athletic but undersized wing/forward that would ideally be a stretch 4. He’s a very good rebounder and pretty decent slasher and passer, too. Unfortunately, the stretch part of that game hasn’t worked out yet; He made just 21.4% of his 3’s last season. Reports in the exhibition season are that he has really improved his jumper. We’ll see if that translates to the regular season and D-I competition.

Kentucky has a number of other versatile but limited big men behind the starters. SO F/C Lance Ware, JR F Jacob Toppin (yes, Obi’s brother), and FR F Bryce Hopkins should all get playing time throughout the season, to ease the load on the starters and in case neither truly dominates. None are taller than 6’9” with Hopkins standing at around 6’7”. They have not displayed a ton of skill in college yet, but are all athletic and should be able to go after rebounds and occasionally show a flash or two of scoring. Toppin has dealt with some injuries during the preseason, so his status is up in the air for 11/9.

The other frontcourt player that should see significant minutes is 6’9” FR F Damion Collins. The former McDonald’s All-American is a physical outlier, barely weighing 200 lbs while possessing absurd length (a reported 7’5” wingspan). He also has shown some flashes of being able to hit the jumper, although he looks a little raw altogether. His main attribute this season should be the ability to generate steals and blocks and then take the ball in transition. Other than being long and springy, his halfcourt game and decision-making is a big question. Still, he could be a disruptive player when in the game and may end up starting at some point.

The most talented players on this roster, the freshmen Washington and Collins, are not likely to lead the team in scoring. Grady is the scorer on the wings while Tshiebwe should get plenty of opportunities to operate in the post. Usually, Kentucky has no shortage of NBA talent leading the way. That is not the case this season. Coach Cal has relied on a deep group of athletes that can fly around the court and use their lateral quickness and recovery abilities to make life difficult for the opposing offense for long enough into the season until an offensive identity emerges. This roster does not look particularly stout on the defensive end. TyTy Washington might be the best two-way player on the team. Every other player has a few questions or holes in their game. The shooting should be better than a typical UK team, once CJ Frederick returns. The big question is whether the team can defend well enough to make that matter.

Duke should have a significant size advantage at every position. Mark Williams, Theo John, and Paolo Banchero are all just as big and long or bigger and longer than anyone on the UK team. On the wings, Moore, Keels, Baker, and Griffin are all going to have a size and length advantage (or both) relative to their counterparts and should be equally as athletic or moreso. Roach and Baker matches up physically with Wheeler and Mintz if those two are going to be the primary guards. Duke looked dominant on both ends in their lone public exhibition while Kentucky looked only OK against their opponent, Kentucky Wesleyan. One of the Wesleyan guards scored 29 points on 10/29, mostly by attacking the rim. Duke should be able to exploit that with Williams, Banchero, Moore, Keels, and John all being capable of getting to the rim and converting. If Duke can play smart and disciplined basketball, the experience that Kentucky has should be insufficient to overcome the talent gap. Where Kentucky could excel in this matchup will be on the offensive glass. Tshiebwe and Brooks can both get boards and create second opportunities. Duke will have to clean up the glass after misses and prevent second and third opportunities. If they do that, the UK team will have to hope that Brooks or Washington are truly capable of stacking up with their bigger and equally athletic counterparts.

[CDu]

The Wildcats are a team in transition. Calipari has long relied on having elite but inexperienced talent and coaching the heck out of defense. When the defense clicked, his teams were great. On years where the defense didn't click (or they suffered injuries), the teams struggled. But up through 2019, his squads were regularly a contender for a top-10 defense nationally (5 times in the 2010s). But somewhere along the way in the 2010s, a funny thing happened: Coach K overtook Calipari in landing the elite prospects. And without the cache on the recruiting trail, Cal's ability to field dominant talent made his job harder. And the last two years, his teams have suffered as a result. In 2020, they had the #52 defense in the country, and last year it was just #35. They weren't able to overwhelm opponents with length, physicality, and elite athleticism, and it showed. But just as importantly, the offense fell off too. Last year, they were the #84 offense in the country.

Why such a long prologue of the past when this is a scouting report for the current team? Well, because Calipari did a bit of a conceptual reboot this past summer. He leaned all-in on the transfer market a la Chris Beard. It wasn't necessarily a home-run recruiting class, but Cal brought in what could be 3-4 starters via the transfer market to augment a strong (in national terms, not so much in Calipari terms) freshman class.

The trick is that this makes it really hard to say what kind of team UK will have. They'll likely play the same dribble-drive offense and man-to-man defense that Calipari is known for. But it is not clear how effective they'll be. I would say comfortably that they'll be better than they were last year. But whether that is top-10 caliber or outside the top-25, I can't say yet. Torvik projects them at #17 to start the year, while KenPom says #25. By either metric, we're the slight favorite in this game. And certainly would be favored based on talent, as we should have the 2 or 3 most talented players playing in this game.

Center: Oscar Tshiebwe (6'9", 260lb junior transfer from the DRC via West Virginia) is the big man. And he's a big man. Tshiebwe is very muscular, and has a 7'4" wingspan. He's a good athlete and extremely strong, but not much of a shotblocker. That said, he's a super high-energy player that seemed perfect for Huggins' system and should do well for Calipari. Non-stop motor, good athleticism, and very hard-nosed. He's a really good rebounder on both ends, and that will serve him well. He's also extremely raw offensively. If it isn't a dunk (78% of his shots were at the rim last year), it's likely to go anywhere. And he struggles a bit with foul trouble (5 fouls per 40 minutes), which could be a problem because... the Wildcats don't have a backup center at all.

Forwards: Kentucky has a trio of somewhat similar young forwards, and then a guy who is a bit different. Daimion Collins (6'9", 200lb freshman RSCI #12) will be the presumed starter (or at least will lead in minutes of the three) at PF. Collins is very much in the typical Calipari mold of a physical profile: long, lean, very athletic. He has a 7'5" wingspan and excellent mobility and leaping ability. He'll be the shotblocking presence on this team. Offensively, he's not as polished, although he does have some skills. He is not atrocious from the perimeter, but struggles with decision-making. And he's really thin, as is common among freshmen. NBA-level athleticism, but the game is still a work in progress. Still, he should be an impact freshman for them. Behind Collins are a pair of slightly older guys with a similar basic profile of lanky, athletic players with more raw offensive skills. First is Jacob Toppin (6'9", 200lb junior). If the name sounds familiar, it should. He's Obi Toppin's little brother. Jacob Toppin started his career at Rhode Island, but played his sophomore year with the Wildcats. He's a springy, lanky player with a decent shooting touch (30% from 3, 78% FT) and is the more perimeter-oriented of the 3 forwards. The other guy is Lance Ware (6'9", 225lb sophmore). Ware was a top-40 recruit out of high school who struggled for playing time as a freshman. He'll likely be asked to play more this year due to lack of interior depth. None of the three are winning any weightlighting competitions, and it will be interesting to see how Kentucky manages physicality this year (aside from the brute squad member Tshiebwe). Bryce Hopkins (6'7", 220lb freshman #34 RSCI) is the "one of these things is not like the other" guy. Hopkins is an undersized combo forward whose skill level plays better at PF than SF, but who is capable of playing either spots. He's sort of a Jordan Nwora type of guy: not overly athletic, but capable of scoring from a variety of spots on the floor. And he has the physical strength to play up against bigger forwards. Framewise he's not dissimilar to AJ Griffin, although athletically they are quite different. I'd expect Hopkins to play over Ware, but it's unclear whether he'll also play over Toppin (who was recovering from a shoulder injury and didn't play in the exhibition).

Wings: Kentucky always has wings. Always. This year is no exception. Keion Brooks (6'7", 205lb junior) is the primary guy, and could probably be classified as a forward as he'll spend a lot of time there this year. Brooks struggled as a freshman, but had a solid sophomore year averaging 10 and 7 for the Cats. He wasn't a good shooter his first two seasons, but shot 4-6 from 3 in their exhibition so that's something to keep an eye on. He's a high-energy guy with a nose for the ball, and was a top-25 recruit coming out of high school. He's got the most experience with Calipari, and that combined with his tenacity will make him a team leader this year. NBA talent, it just hasn't fully come together yet. Alongside him as a potential starter is Kellan Grady (6'5", 205lb grad transfer from Davidson). Grady is sort of the opposite of Brooks: whereas Brooks is the high-energy guy with good athleticism but a more raw shot, Grady is the underathletic guy with a great shooting stroke. Grady will be a floor spacer for the Wildcats, and should be a nice outlet for their slashing guards. But he's not going to be a plus defender by any means, and I doubt he creates much offense for himself or others. He'll largely be a catch-and-shoot guy in UK blue. The third wing is likely to be CJ Frederick (6'3", 195lb junior transfer from Iowa). Frederick is sort of similar to Grady, only a bit shorter and a bit more of a lethal catch-and-shoot guy. He's a career 47% 3pt shooter, so leaving him unattended is a definite no-no. He didn't play in their exhibition as he's recovering from a broken leg, so it's hard to know how much he'll get used against us. Dontaie Allen (6'6", 200lb redshirt sophomore) will also play some, especially so if Frederick is out. Allen can also really shoot it from 3, so he and Grady and Frederick will be somewhat interchangeable in that catch-and-shoot role.

Guards: Here is where the season will be made or lost for the Wildcats. They have some serious talent here, but in that talent Calipari will have to make some interesting offense/defense decisions. The Wildcats are likely to start at least a pair of smaller guards this year. First is Sahvir Wheeler (5'10", 180lb junior transfer from Georgia). Wheeler was a stud last year for Georgia, averaging 14 points, 7.4 assists, 3.8 rebounds, and 1.7 steals per game. He's undersized (at least in terms of height), but he's pugnacious and fearless. He's not a great perimeter shooter and sometimes lacks discipline, but he's capable of hitting tough shots from the perimeter. He'll be a pesky, scrappy guard defensively and a handful on the attack offensively. Wheeler will pair interestingly with TyTy Washington (6'3", 195lb freshman #14 RSCI). Washington is sort of the taller, better version of Wheeler. Very high motor, very skilled, quick, and fearless with the ball in his hands. He's probably a better pure shooter than Wheeler. Washington shot up the recruiting rankings his senior year, and is generally thought of as likely to be a first round pick next summer. The dynamic between those two, as well as their ability to defend bigger players, will determine just how good UK will be. But both players are absolute dynamos with the ball in their hands, and will likely do very well in UK's dribble-drive system. The third guard is only a third guard in name. Talent-wise, Davion Mintz (6'3", 195lb grad student) is a talent in his own right. Mintz spent 3 years at Creighton before playing his senior year at Kentucky last year. Mintz isn't as dynamic as Washington or Wheeler, but he's smart, tough, and quite capable as a secondary/tertiary scorer. Mintz has generally been a solid 3pt shooter, but had his best season from 3 at 37.8% last year. He's also a capable ballhandler, although he'll likely not be asked to do much of that with Washington and Wheeler both serving as lead guards. He's a nice veteran option off the bench though.

So Kentucky should have a potential advantage at guard against us, but they should be at a substantive disadvantage at PF and C. It will be interesting to see if they try to play small or try to compete with our size advantage. They could go really small with Wheeler, Washington, and Mintz on the perimeter and Brooks or Hopkins at PF, and really try to strain our defense with their quickness. Or they could play Wheeler/Washington and Mintz at guard with Grady and Brooks on the wings and a big man. Or they could try to play bigger with Tshiebwe and Collins inside along with Brooks on the wing and a pair of guards. Either way, it will be an interesting test. I suspect they'll go smaller if possible, as that is where their advantage lies. But it will depend on whether Tshiebwe can stay on the floor and whether or not Brooks can guard up against Banchero.

Should be a fun first test of the season!

[uh_no]

glad we get a quick game against some actual experienced college players. Get a much better evaluation of where we really are than beating up on Wake Forest (wait? That's different from winston salem state? I'm going to call wake forest that from now on for fun)

[MarkD83]

glad we get a quick game against some actual experienced college players. Get a much better evaluation of where we really are than beating up on Wake Forest (wait? That's different from winston salem state? I'm going to call wake forest that from now on for fun)

I will revisit this post on Jan 13 and Feb 16 and hope your prediction comes true.

[uh_no]

I will revisit this post on Jan 13 and Feb 16 and hope your prediction comes true.

it's that when we play Winston Salem state again?

[Neals384]

One more factor adding to the drama for this game: 118-84. Of course no one on either team played in that game but you can bet Coach Cal is pumped for this one and hoping for revenge. Dukies need to be ready for an intense game!

[ClemmonsDevil]

One more factor adding to the drama for this game: 118-84. Of course no one on either team played in that game but you can bet Coach Cal is pumped for this one and hoping for revenge. Dukies need to be ready for an intense game!

I think Kentucky will have to play great to beat Duke and Duke will only have to play well to beat Kentucky. I think Duke is one of the three best teams in the country and we will see if I'm right soon enough.

[weezie]

Interesting, Ticketmaster saying fully vaxed people do not have to wear masks inside MSG.

[kidA]

Ticket prices for this have become reasonable, well, to get in the building, not necessarily for good seats. If only it was driving distance…!

[Dr. Rosenrosen]

Wait, I thought this was a barbecue thread…?

[dukefan5656]

Anyone from the Bay Area want to carpool to the game??

[dukelion]

Finally a game to analyze!

Definitely not a classic Kentucky team with all the transfers and quite honestly a lack of top end talent but a potentially quality team nonetheless.

As mentioned up-thread, an interesting strategy would be to play small against Duke. This would push Banchero to the 5 and either Moore or Griffin to the 4, which isn't really all that small. And I think that's what makes Duke so dangerous this year...regardless of how teams want to play us, they'll more than likely be the ones at a disadvantage.

[UrinalCake]

Appreciate all the pregame analysis, especially to the OP who showed some serious commitment by watching a non-Duke preseason exhibition game on the Ocho just to gain some intel. My hats off to you! I think this game ultimately comes down to which players are able to handle the moment. The freshmen have never been in this kind of spotlight, and even the older guys haven't played in front of a crowd in quite a while. There's a whole season ahead to develop and to break down strengths and weaknesses, but this opening night comes down to raw talent (in which I believe we have an advantage) and playing with poise and composure (which is an enormous question mark for both teams).