Originally Posted by
Dr. Maturin
I'm not saying Duke will win, or even cover the spread in this game. But don't be surprised if this one is close. For one, despite Wake's record, the numbers suggest that they are merely "pretty good." The AP poll has Wake at #13, but they're just 37th in SP+ and 35th in FPI (Duke is 85th and 96th). Moreover, Duke and Wake generally recruit the same level of athletes. This has led to some competitive games even when one team has been much better than the other.
In 2006, Wake had their best team in a generation, winning 11 games and the ACC title. They played a Duke team that went 0-12. Duke missed a chip shot field goal that would have won it, and Wake won 14-13. (Side note: this was also Thad's first game as a starter).
In 2013, Duke had its best team in a generation, winning 10 games and the Coastal title. Wake was limping to a 4-8 record in Grobe's last year (quite similar to Duke this season). Wake jumped out to a 14-0 lead (side note: I'm still mad that the officials failed to overturn a fumble recovery TD for Wake, as Isaac Blakeney was clearly down), and Duke had to come back to win 28-21.
Wake is a solid team and they have a chance at a historic season for their program. That said, they've also a bit lucky to be 7-0 given some poor defensive performances and some close wins. Their defense will bite them eventually, and if they keep playing close games, they'll eventually lose one. It probably won't happen Saturday. But it might.
Trap game!!
Q "Why do you like Duke, you didn't even go there." A "Because my art school didn't have a basketball team."