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  1. #21
    Join Date
    Nov 2009
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    Richmond, VA
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    The thing is, his teams have rarely lacked talent. They usually are light on the recruiting rankings, but the actual talent turns out to be pretty good. Guys like Brogdon and Diakite for example. And they usually have a TON of experience in their system. As in, loaded with 4th and 5th year guys in the rotation.

    This yearís team lost their top-4 (and only) 3pt shooters, their top-3 scorers, their entire frontcourt including a promising backup forward, and two highly-rated wings. They replaced them with one good PF and one good SG. And those guys will be new to Bennettís system, meaning the defense will likely suffer. They have just one shooter (and 3pt shooting has been a big part of their offensive efficiency). And they donít even make up for it with tons of experience, as they have just one guy with 2+ years of playing experience in their system.

    And just to be clear, I don't think they'll be bad. But I think somewhere in the #40 range sounds more reasonable. Which is, interestingly, about where I think Va Tech should be too.
    I'm a little more bullish on VT. I think if Mike Young is going to prove himself in the ACC he needs to show that he can do it this year. With a starting lineup that includes 2 redshirt seniors (1 All-ACC), 2 redshirt juniors and a point guard that has started for four years on a good team in the Southern Conference (1st team All Southern), he's got about as much experience as he's ever going to get. IMHO, if he doesn't end up in the top quarter of the ACC, it will be a disappointment. That being said, being in the top quarter of the ACC and being around #40 nationally might be the case. How sad is that? Remember the days when the ACC would have 4 or 5 schools in the top ten?
    "That young man has an extra step on his ladder the rest of us just don't have."

  2. #22
    Join Date
    Jun 2008
    Location
    Winston Salem, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    The thing is, his teams have rarely lacked talent. They usually are light on the recruiting rankings, but the actual talent turns out to be pretty good. Guys like Brogdon and Diakite for example. And they usually have a TON of experience in their system. As in, loaded with 4th and 5th year guys in the rotation.

    This yearís team lost their top-4 (and only) 3pt shooters, their top-3 scorers, their entire frontcourt including a promising backup forward, and two highly-rated wings. They replaced them with one good PF and one good SG. And those guys will be new to Bennettís system, meaning the defense will likely suffer. They have just one shooter (and 3pt shooting has been a big part of their offensive efficiency). And they donít even make up for it with tons of experience, as they have just one guy with 2+ years of playing experience in their system.

    And just to be clear, I don't think they'll be bad. But I think somewhere in the #40 range sounds more reasonable. Which is, interestingly, about where I think Va Tech should be too.
    I would say recognizing talent that best plays into the Cavs type play is one of Bennett's best strengths and I admire him for it. It's going to be interesting to see how this squad does.

  3. #23
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by CameronDuke View Post
    I am not disagreeing they lost a lot, arenít as experienced, and didnít exactly replace everyone the lost. But if thereís anyone that can get a team to defend and be on the same page and up to speed quickly, itís Tony Bennett. Probably the best coach in the ACC in regular season games since 2014ish.
    It is without question that he's had the best regular season record since 2014. That doesn't mean it will continue in perpetuity. After all, he did have a resume prior to the beginning of this great run. This is easily his least experienced and possibly his least talented team in his tenure at UVa. We saw what the lack of experience can do to the defense this past year, as they were rated outside the top-30 defensively (first time since 2013 that they haven't been top-10 defensively). And this year's group will be even less experienced and with less continuity than last year's team. So I'm picturing something more like the 2012 and 2013 iterations of UVa: 20-win teams that were just slightly above .500 in conference play. The team has real questions about depth and quality that it hasn't had in a long time. It also has an unfavorable schedule this year, facing Duke twice and getting UNC only in Chapel Hill and Notre Dame (who should be pretty good this year) only in South Bend. The only break they catch on their schedule is getting FSU at home.

    If UVa wins the regular season this year, it will be quite comfortably Bennett's best coaching job of his career in my opinion. Even finishing within a game or two of the conference title would be on his short list of best coaching jobs.

  4. #24

    Okay, I'm Biased, but...

    In what universe is UNC 2022's #3 ACC Squad?

    There are a couple teams in the next state north that should be considerably better.

  5. #25
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by Nrrrrvous View Post
    I'm a little more bullish on VT. I think if Mike Young is going to prove himself in the ACC he needs to show that he can do it this year. With a starting lineup that includes 2 redshirt seniors (1 All-ACC), 2 redshirt juniors and a point guard that has started for four years on a good team in the Southern Conference (1st team All Southern), he's got about as much experience as he's ever going to get. IMHO, if he doesn't end up in the top quarter of the ACC, it will be a disappointment. That being said, being in the top quarter of the ACC and being around #40 nationally might be the case. How sad is that? Remember the days when the ACC would have 4 or 5 schools in the top ten?
    I don't think Va Tech will be bad at all, I just don't think they'll be upper-end-of-the-conference good. I don't think they were as good as their record last year. They caught several nice breaks on their schedule, including avoiding UNC and FSU in the regular season, catching Duke at home and early in the season when they were dealing with the Jalen Johnson situation, catching Clemson during their COVID stretch, etc. And they lost a few key guys (Radford, Bede, and Cone) and replaced them with just Storm Murphy. They have a very solid and VERY experienced starting 5, but basically no bench at all. As in, like, they may have to play their starters for 40 minutes each. If they suffer any injuries/absences to a starter this year, those games are going to be really tough to win. So I just don't see things breaking right for them this year. Like UVa, I think they'll be a back half of the NCAA field type of team this year.

  6. #26
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by DevilYouKnow View Post
    In what universe is UNC 2022's #3 ACC Squad?

    There are a couple teams in the next state north that should be considerably better.
    I doubt either of those teams in Virginia will be better (or even as good as) UNC this year, unfortunately. UNC lost an NBA guy, a future NBA guy, and a key senior. But they return an All-ACC caliber big man, add 3 transfer bigs (two were impact starters on Power-6 teams and the other was a promising forward from UVa) and bring back their entire backcourt. So they should again be strong inside, but this year they add some new wrinkles. Namely:

    - Stretch bigs: Garcia and Manek can really shoot the 3. That should free up driving lanes for their guards
    - Pick and roll offense: their returning 5-star PG was a pick-and-roll type of player. Roy Williams doesn't run high ball screens for his guards. I suspect that Hubert Davis will do so. And that should unlock Caleb Love, whose skill set was largely neutered by Williams' system

    Despite losing Sharpe, Kessler, and Brooks, UNC will still be the second most talented team in the ACC this year, and they have the added advantage of being pretty experienced too.

    I was pretty down on UNC over the past few years, but they should unfortunately be pretty good this year unless Davis really flops as a head coach.

  7. #27
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    I doubt either of those teams in Virginia will be better (or even as good as) UNC this year, unfortunately. UNC lost an NBA guy, a future NBA guy, and a key senior. But they return an All-ACC caliber big man, add 3 transfer bigs (two were impact starters on Power-6 teams and the other was a promising forward from UVa) and bring back their entire backcourt. So they should again be strong inside, but this year they add some new wrinkles. Namely:

    - Stretch bigs: Garcia and Manek can really shoot the 3. That should free up driving lanes for their guards
    - Pick and roll offense: their returning 5-star PG was a pick-and-roll type of player. Roy Williams doesn't run high ball screens for his guards. I suspect that Hubert Davis will do so. And that should unlock Caleb Love, whose skill set was largely neutered by Williams' system

    Despite losing Sharpe, Kessler, and Brooks, UNC will still be the second most talented team in the ACC this year, and they have the added advantage of being pretty experienced too.

    I was pretty down on UNC over the past few years, but they should unfortunately be pretty good this year unless Davis really flops as a head coach.
    I agree with this assessment.

  8. #28
    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Location
    North of Durham
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    I doubt either of those teams in Virginia will be better (or even as good as) UNC this year, unfortunately. UNC lost an NBA guy, a future NBA guy, and a key senior. But they return an All-ACC caliber big man, add 3 transfer bigs (two were impact starters on Power-6 teams and the other was a promising forward from UVa) and bring back their entire backcourt. So they should again be strong inside, but this year they add some new wrinkles. Namely:

    - Stretch bigs: Garcia and Manek can really shoot the 3. That should free up driving lanes for their guards
    - Pick and roll offense: their returning 5-star PG was a pick-and-roll type of player. Roy Williams doesn't run high ball screens for his guards. I suspect that Hubert Davis will do so. And that should unlock Caleb Love, whose skill set was largely neutered by Williams' system

    Despite losing Sharpe, Kessler, and Brooks, UNC will still be the second most talented team in the ACC this year, and they have the added advantage of being pretty experienced too.

    I was pretty down on UNC over the past few years, but they should unfortunately be pretty good this year unless Davis really flops as a head coach.
    Very well put. I think folks get a bit too blinded by their Tar Heel hatred around here sometimes. Manek in particular was a huge addition for them.

  9. #29
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    It is without question that he's had the best regular season record since 2014. That doesn't mean it will continue in perpetuity. After all, he did have a resume prior to the beginning of this great run. This is easily his least experienced and possibly his least talented team in his tenure at UVa. We saw what the lack of experience can do to the defense this past year, as they were rated outside the top-30 defensively (first time since 2013 that they haven't been top-10 defensively). And this year's group will be even less experienced and with less continuity than last year's team. So I'm picturing something more like the 2012 and 2013 iterations of UVa: 20-win teams that were just slightly above .500 in conference play. The team has real questions about depth and quality that it hasn't had in a long time. It also has an unfavorable schedule this year, facing Duke twice and getting UNC only in Chapel Hill and Notre Dame (who should be pretty good this year) only in South Bend. The only break they catch on their schedule is getting FSU at home.

    If UVa wins the regular season this year, it will be quite comfortably Bennett's best coaching job of his career in my opinion. Even finishing within a game or two of the conference title would be on his short list of best coaching jobs.
    I agree if they win the ACC regular season this will be his best coaching job ever. Iím not expecting them to win the ACC but wonít be surprised if they finish 2nd or 3rd. They own UNC-CH by the way. I think the last time UVa lost to them was in February of 2017.

  10. #30
    Join Date
    Feb 2018
    Location
    Durham, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by CameronDuke View Post
    Iím not expecting them to win the ACC but wonít be surprised if they finish 2nd or 3rd. They own UNC-CH by the way. I think the last time UVa lost to them was in February of 2017.
    From your lips (or typing) to the basketball gods' ears. Weauf gods not invited.

  11. #31
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by CameronDuke View Post
    I agree if they win the ACC regular season this will be his best coaching job ever. I’m not expecting them to win the ACC but won’t be surprised if they finish 2nd or 3rd. They own UNC-CH by the way. I think the last time UVa lost to them was in February of 2017.
    They owned UNC in Roy Williams' system. This year's team is, apparently, going to look a fair bit different, and much more 3pt shooting oriented. UNC under Roy played right into UVa's strengths by being a non-3pt shooting team that tried to focus on getting shots inside. Davis is apparently moving away from that strategy, as evidenced by bringing in two stretch-bigs. So it will be interesting to see if the coaching change affects the UVa/UNC dynamic.

    I won't be totally shocked if UVa finish 3rd, but I'd be pretty surprised if they finished 2nd. And I would be at least a little surprised if they finished third. I think Duke and UNC are clearly better, and I think enough of FSU (added two decent transfers plus the second-best freshman class in the ACC), Notre Dame (a rotation of 7 seniors and a junior!), and Louisville (adding Noah Locke, Matt Cross, Jarrod West, and El Ellis along with returning Withers, Williams, Williamson, and Davis) will be good enough to keep UVa out of the top-3. I feel like anywhere from 4th to 6th feels about right, with an outside shot at 3rd.

    If Bennett takes this UVa team to the top-2 or even top-3 in the conference, I think it might be his best coaching job at UVa.

  12. #32
    Color me skeptical on UNC being anything other than a disappointment. First time head coach with a bunch of losers from last year. I enjoy every single loss that UNC has and I expect to enjoy many of them this year!

    9f

  13. #33
    Quote Originally Posted by The Gordog View Post
    Great news but not surprising. Let's hope that's more accurate than last year's #2 prediction.
    These Duke rankings which are so heavily based on HS rankings tend to scare me. See Chronicleís short summary of Jalen less than a year ago. We just donít know how the OADs will work out as Freshmen and a lot more to it than raw talent.

    https://www.dukebasketballreport.com...uke-basketball

  14. #34
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by arnie View Post
    These Duke rankings which are so heavily based on HS rankings tend to scare me. See Chronicleís short summary of Jalen less than a year ago. We just donít know how the OADs will work out as Freshmen and a lot more to it than raw talent.

    https://www.dukebasketballreport.com...uke-basketball
    There is a difference though. Johnson was the #11 recruit, and had sat out his senior year of high school after transferring. So the red flags were there. Banchero was tied for the #2 consensus recruit in RSCI. Guys rated at that level (excepting the anomalously injured Harry Giles) have all delivered as freshmen in the one-and-done era.

    It's also worth noting that Jalen Johnson's production when he played was still quite good. He didn't fail at Duke because of lack of ability. There were apparently other issues going on there, and for reasons we probably will never fully know he just wasn't available.

    In short, I wouldn't consider Jalen Johnson's story at Duke to be a reference point for any future Duke recruits. I think that was a pretty unique situation, in many ways.

    The other key difference is that the team's ranking isn't based entirely on high school rankings. We also have more production and more experience returning this year than we did last year.

  15. #35
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    There is a difference though. Johnson was the #11 recruit, and had sat out his senior year of high school after transferring. So the red flags were there. Banchero was tied for the #2 consensus recruit in RSCI. Guys rated at that level (excepting the anomalously injured Harry Giles) have all delivered as freshmen in the one-and-done era.

    It's also worth noting that Jalen Johnson's production when he played was still quite good. He didn't fail at Duke because of lack of ability. There were apparently other issues going on there, and for reasons we probably will never fully know he just wasn't available.

    In short, I wouldn't consider Jalen Johnson's story at Duke to be a reference point for any future Duke recruits. I think that was a pretty unique situation, in many ways.

    The other key difference is that the team's ranking isn't based entirely on high school rankings. We also have more production and more experience returning this year than we did last year.
    Yes- Williams- with his rapid improvement once Johnson left, Moore who has steadily improved and is physically more mature - and a more experienced Roach - who had his moments- is a very good core to build on. That was not the situation last year. This years team will need outside shooting and that is the biggest question mark to start the season as has been the case last few years.

  16. #36
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    NC
    Quote Originally Posted by dukelifer View Post
    Yes- Williams- with his rapid improvement once Johnson left, Moore who has steadily improved and is physically more mature - and a more experienced Roach - who had his moments- is a very good core to build on. That was not the situation last year. This years team will need outside shooting and that is the biggest question mark to start the season as has been the case last few years.
    Yep. The team has two big questions in my mind: can they get enough perimeter shooting to allow space for Williams to work down low, and can the guard play be good enough. I think there is reason for optimism on both counts, between the typical freshman to sophomore jumps we have seen for Duke guards in the past several years, with the reports out of practice that Keels has been fantastic, and with the reported development in Moore's game. But those are really the only questions for me, and those can't be answered until we play somebody else.

    But even with those questions, we're starting from a MUCH better place than we were last year: 3 extra months of practice, with more experience, with more returning talent/production, and with a better top-end freshman.

  17. #37
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Vermont
    unc is rarely as bad as we hope they'll be.

  18. #38
    Quote Originally Posted by budwom View Post
    unc is NEVER as bad as we hope they'll be.
    FIFY

  19. #39
    Join Date
    Mar 2007
    Location
    Wherever the wind blows and the leaves dance.
    I know this time of year coaches and fans fall in love with their team's potential. That being said Mike Young has been really talking up his team's experience and shooting. He has said this is the first time he has ever had 5 guys who can all shoot. If VT can stay healthy, they could find their way into the top 3. They have experience, shooting, and an underrated, motivated coach.

    The early buzz from UVA fans seem to think that Franklin and Gardner are going to be really good. Of course Bennett is hard to bet against but UVA lost a lot and it might take a while to get their system going. Tough call on that one. I think VT has a better shot at top 3 than UVA though.

    UNCheat is really interesting. They lost a lot and added a lot. Does it all work though? A new system, new impact players (Manek, Garcia). That is a lot going on. It could go either way, top three or middle of the pack. UNC does have issues on the wing though. Who do they go with at the 3? Black, Walton, McCoy? is their a good choice there? Bacot, arguably their best player seems out of place in the new system. Who is Manek going to guard? Walton and Davis also have defensive questions to answer. Leaky black has offensive questions to answer. Caleb Love seems a lot better on the individual level but can he get the team involved.

  20. #40
    Quote Originally Posted by CDu View Post
    There is a difference though. Johnson was the #11 recruit, and had sat out his senior year of high school after transferring. So the red flags were there. Banchero was tied for the #2 consensus recruit in RSCI. Guys rated at that level (excepting the anomalously injured Harry Giles) have all delivered as freshmen in the one-and-done era.

    It's also worth noting that Jalen Johnson's production when he played was still quite good. He didn't fail at Duke because of lack of ability. There were apparently other issues going on there, and for reasons we probably will never fully know he just wasn't available.

    In short, I wouldn't consider Jalen Johnson's story at Duke to be a reference point for any future Duke recruits. I think that was a pretty unique situation, in many ways.

    The other key difference is that the team's ranking isn't based entirely on high school rankings. We also have more production and more experience returning this year than we did last year.
    Might want to add Trevon Duval to the recent list of highly recruited OADs that didnít perform to expectations. My point was expectations for OADs are extraordinarily high (IMO) and often the fit within the team and overall D is not so great. The JJ comparison to Grant Hill in the Chronicle article didnt age well either on several fronts.

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