MBB: Human Polls, 2021-22

[CameronDuke]

https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/rankings

Duke comes into the 2021-2022 season ranked 9th in the country.

[CameronDuke]

Notable preseason AP Poll rankings for Duke in national title winning seasons:

2014-2015: 1
2009-2010: 1
2000-2001: 2
1991-1992: 1
1990-1991: 6

[uh_no]

Notable preseason AP Poll rankings for Duke in national title winning seasons:

2014-2015: 1
2009-2010: 1
2000-2001: 2
1991-1992: 1
1990-1991: 6

I have no pretentions of us being serious title contenders, BUT, I think our rating has about as big error bars as any team in the country, or than most in the history of duke. There are outcomes where we're really good, and outcomes where we really stink.

so 9-10 is a nice medium.

[OldPhiKap]

Does not look like they think of the ACC very highly this season.

Good thing we have football.

[Nrrrrvous]

Does not look like they think of the ACC very highly this season.

Good thing we have football.

Yeah, about that...

[Billy Dat]

I have no pretentions of us being serious title contenders, BUT, I think our rating has about as big error bars as any team in the country, or than most in the history of duke. There are outcomes where we're really good, and outcomes where we really stink.

so 9-10 is a nice medium.

While I am no UConn fan (like you), I do respect them as a national powerhouse and it actually made me smile to see them back in the rankings, and I happen to enjoy Hurley's barely controlled lunatic passion. That is a program with whom I wish we'd set up a series.

[Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15]

Does not look like they think of the ACC very highly this season.

Good thing we have football.

What's a "foot ball?" Is it like "pickle ball?" I understand that's popular.

[uh_no]

While I am no UConn fan (like you), I do respect them as a national powerhouse and it actually made me smile to see them back in the rankings, and I happen to enjoy Hurley's barely controlled lunatic passion. That is a program with whom I wish we'd set up a series.

hahaha your feeling may not be shared among most duke fans

But Hurley is quite the character. Somehow he appears to be perpetually stoned during their press conferences, and while I'm sure many-a duke fan celebrated their early demise last year (despite the glass houses, etc), It was a rough way for a program which had shown progression since the ollie days to go down. It will at least be interesting to see if they can put together an offense which was hapless without bouknight last year.

[sagegrouse]

4 ACC teams in Top 25 -- ave. rank is 18.

[DUKIECB]

There are outcomes where we're really good, and outcomes where we really stink.

Is this an opinion that most agree with around here? Just curious because I don't see the we could stink scenario. I see it more like we could be really really good but not quite great and worst case scenario being just average. I feel like we have enough talent that even if we under perform we would still be decent.

[scottdude8]

Notable preseason AP Poll rankings for Duke in national title winning seasons:

2014-2015: 1
2009-2010: 1
2000-2001: 2
1991-1992: 1
1990-1991: 6

Wait, what? We were preseason #9 prior to 2009-2010 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009%E2%80%9310_NCAA_Division_I_men's_basketball_r ankings?wprov=sfti1).

Typo?

[CameronDuke]

Wait, what? We were preseason #9 prior to 2009-2010 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009%E...gs?wprov=sfti1).

Typo?

Sorry, you’re right. 4 in 2015, too. My mistake.

[uh_no]

Is this an opinion that most agree with around here? Just curious because I don't see the we could stink scenario. I see it more like we could be really really good but not quite great and worst case scenario being just average. I feel like we have enough talent that even if we under perform we would still be decent.

If roach, moore, and baker aren't improved and banchero plays no better than hurt, and the other freshmen are inconsistent as freshmen of their rankings often are, then we are about the same as the team that missed the tournament last year. I'm not saying that's likely, but neither is everyone being the best we assume they could be.

It takes a lot to go wrong for us to be at that level, just as it takes a lot to go right for us to be great. The average case is about 10th.

[CDu]

Is this an opinion that most agree with around here? Just curious because I don't see the we could stink scenario. I see it more like we could be really really good but not quite great and worst case scenario being just average. I feel like we have enough talent that even if we under perform we would still be decent.

I suspect it comes down to what one thinks of a “stink” season. People felt last year’s team stunk. But I feel like our floor (health pending, of course) is higher than last year’s outcome. Mainly because by the second half of last year (when we dropped Johnson and probably about on par with a December timeframe for a normal season’s prep), we were a top-20 team in quality of play. And we are more experienced, more talented, and arguably deeper this year too. So, yeah, I feel like our realistic floor is still safely a tourney team, if not top-25. Which I don’t think “stinks.”

Or course, I don’t think last year’s team stunk either. So one’s mileage may vary.

[uh_no]

I suspect it comes down to what one thinks of a “stink” season. People felt last year’s team stunk. But I feel like our floor (health pending, of course) is higher than last year’s outcome. Mainly because by the second half of last year (when we dropped Johnson and probably about on par with a December timeframe for a normal season’s prep), we were a top-20 team in quality of play. And we are more experienced, more talented, and arguably deeper this year too. So, yeah, I feel like our realistic floor is still safely a tourney team, if not top-25. Which I don’t think “stinks.”

Or course, I don’t think last year’s team stunk either. So one’s mileage may vary.

we were not a top-anything in the last 3 regular season games, but had clearly rebounded in the two ACCT games. We were definitely on the upswing. Either way, I'd say finishing like we finished the regular season last year would not be a positive for this team (and at least I would qualify as "stink" in the context of the expectations of a duke team)

[CDu]

we were not a top-anything in the last 3 regular season games, but had clearly rebounded in the two ACCT games. We were definitely on the upswing. Either way, I'd say finishing like we finished the regular season last year would not be a positive for this team (and at least I would qualify as "stink" in the context of the expectations of a duke team)

Over the last 10 games we played like a top-15 team (14th in efficiency margin over that period). That includes the last 3 regular season games (only 2 of which were actually bad).

Choosing a 3-game sample (one of which was actually a pretty good performance on the road against a tourney team, just a heartbreaking OT loss) seems like an exercise in looking for pessimistic viewpoints.

I suspect we will have a similar 2-3 game stretch this year too. But on aggregate, I suspect our floor to be higher than last year’s aggregate (a top-40 team), and our mean expectation to be a decent bit better than the top-15 team we played like over our last 10 games last year.

[uh_no]

Over the last 10 games we played like a top-15 team (14th in efficiency margin over that period). That includes the last 3 regular season games (only 2 of which were actually bad).

Choosing a 3-game sample (one of which was actually a pretty good performance on the road against a tourney team, just a heartbreaking OT loss) seems like an exercise in looking for pessimistic viewpoints.

I suspect we will have a similar 2-3 game stretch this year too. But on aggregate, I suspect our floor to be higher than last year’s aggregate (a top-40 team), and our mean expectation to be a decent bit better than the top-15 team we played like over our last 10 games last year.

Crap. you're on to me

[HereBeforeCoachK]

Does not look like they think of the ACC very highly this season.

Good thing we have football.

I have feared the ACC slowly sliding out of major conference status...due to demographics. A ton of small private schools...the population base compared to the B1G and the SEC is just tiny. The NIL is only going to fast forward this problem. Someone once said "you can't beat demographics." And ultimately, you can't.

[jimsumner]

I have feared the ACC slowly sliding out of major conference status...due to demographics. A ton of small private schools...the population base compared to the B1G and the SEC is just tiny. The NIL is only going to fast forward this problem. Someone once said "you can't beat demographics." And ultimately, you can't.

The ACC has schools in New York, Florida (2), Pennsylvania, Georgia and North Carolina (4). That's nine schools in five of the nine most populous states. Virginia (two schools) is close to top 10. BC is in Boston. Louisville is in a good-sized city. Notre Dame and Clemson, not so much.

So the population demographics certainly compare favorably to a conference with schools in Iowa, Nebraska, Wisconsin and Minnesota and another with schools in Alabama, Mississippi, Missouri and Arkansas.

Larger public schools do have an advantage in football. But in a universe where Butler, Duke, Villanova, Gonzaga and Baylor have all played for an NCAA title in the last 10 contested tournaments, I do not think we've established that smaller, private schools are at a disadvantage.

NIL may change that. But I think it's a lot more likely we'll see that impact on the gridiron than on the hardcourt.

[Steven43]

Sorry, you’re right. 4 in 2015, too. My mistake.

You probably would have gotten away with it if not for that meddling Scott.