Page 4 of 4 FirstFirst ... 234
Results 61 to 76 of 76
  1. #61
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    Undisclosed
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Lost in the $1500 bounty tourney. I don't recall the details nearly as precisely.

    I had about 35k with blinds at 400-800. Was dealt K-Q, I forget the suits. I was in the cutoff and one person had called the 800 blind ahead of me. I raised to 2500 and got called by the big blind. The other early caller folded.

    Flop came Kd - Ks - 6s. I had flopped trips. Big Blind opened for 3k. I popped it to 7k and he came back all-in. I figured he was probably on the flush draw, which meant he had a 1/3 chance of hitting it. There was a chance he had pocket sixes and had flopped a boat, in which case I was close to dead. He could have been bluffing or had some nice pocket pair and did not suspect me of having a K, though my raise pretty much screams KING!

    I thought for a little bit and decided to take my chances that the flush didn't hit so I called. If I was right, I would have a commanding chip stack at my table and might be able to hunt a bit for bounty chips (worth $500 each) as I knocked out lesser stacks. This was a turbo tournament, designed to be played in one day with 20 minute levels, so I knew that we were no more than an hour from a lot of folks starting to feel short-stacked.

    I called and, of course, a spade came on the turn. I still had 10 outs for a full house or quads (the last K, or a 6, Q, or whatever the turn card had been) but no such luck. Adios. I played it right, I am convinced of that, but sometimes you get unlucky. I had about a 70% chance of getting to 70k in chips... I'll take that.

    Ahh well... had a ton of fun and did really well at the blackjack tables Monday night so the few days weren't a total loss.
    I randomly assigned villain JsTs as a possible hand:

    4AC4D575-1337-470F-B6FE-D00AA6D81405.jpg

    So you were 75%. I think you did exactly what you should do in a turbo. If you get it in with 75% equity you’ve found a great spot. And in a turbo you can’t wait for much better that you flopped.

    (But again, I am not good so take my thoughts with a big grain of salt).

    Note that if I give him an Ace of Spades it does not change the odds significantly.
    “Fútbol is life!” — Dani Rojas, Richmond Greyhounds

  2. #62
    Quote Originally Posted by Phredd3 View Post
    I admire professional poker players. You can literally play perfectly for weeks and still come home with less money than you had when you started. That takes supreme confidence and a rock-solid ability to leave your emotions at home. It also takes a pretty substantial bank roll at the levels these people are playing.
    Most poker pros go broke at some point, most do many times. Some go broke because they have other bad gambling habits - win it at poker and lose it at blackjack. One of the old top pros was known to win big tourneys, say 200k, go straight to the blackjack table and be borrowing money the next day. But even if they are disciplined the variance in poker is huge and most don't have a big enough bankroll to avoid the mathematical "risk of ruin" - going broke even when you are a favorite.

    It's worse for the tournament players - great ones can play regularly and easily go a year or more without hitting a big cash. And because of the significant tourney rake probably less than 5% of tourney players are really +EV.

    Because of the wild money swings most poker pros are staked. Many of them end up in the hell that is called "in makeup" to their backer. Say they have a deal where they split their winnings 50-50 with their backer. They start playing and run bad and lose 30k in their first month. Now they have to win back that 30k before they see any money. Sometimes the pros end up so deep that they are looking at months of playing for their backer the whole time while they have nothing coming in for their own living expenses. Having to keep your focus and play solid for months on end just to get back to zero is hard for anyone. At that point poker becomes drudgery and the whole thing is demoralizing as hell.

    The smartest and best tourney players band together and buy pieces of each other. That reduces the variance - if one of them wins they all win. Less variance means less chance of going broke and less chance of having to play for a backer who is taking half your profits.

    Players like Negreanu and Hellmuth make a fortune in endorsements so they don't have the same kind of pressure. But Negreanu did go completely broke at one point in his career and to his credit he dropped back down to really small stakes and built his bankroll back up on his own.
    Last edited by Skydog; 10-20-2021 at 07:47 PM.

  3. #63
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Steamboat Springs, CO
    Quote Originally Posted by Skydog View Post
    Most poker pros go broke at some point, most do many times. Some go broke because they have other bad gambling habits - win it at poker and lose it at blackjack. One of the old top pros was known to win big tourneys, say 200k, go straight to the blackjack table and be borrowing money the next day. But even if they are disciplined the variance in poker is huge and most don't have a big enough bankroll to avoid the mathematical "risk of ruin" - going broke even when you are a favorite.

    It's worse for the tournament players - great ones can play regularly and easily go a year or more without hitting a big cash. And because of the significant tourney rake probably less than 5% of tourney players are really +EV.

    Because of the wild money swings most poker pros are staked. Many of them end up in the hell that is called "in makeup" to their backer. Say they have a deal where they split their winnings 50-50 with their backer. They start playing and run bad and lose 30k in their first month. Now they have to win back that 30k before they see any money. Sometimes the pros end up so deep that they are looking at months of playing for their backer the whole time while they have nothing coming in for their own living expenses. Having to keep your focus and play solid for months on end just to get back to zero is hard for anyone. At that point poker becomes drudgery and the whole thing is demoralizing as hell.

    The smartest and best tourney players band together and buy pieces of each other. That reduces the variance - if one of them wins they all win. Less variance means less chance of going broke and less chance of having to play for a backer who is taking half your profits.

    Players like Negreanu and Hellmuth make a fortune in endorsements so they don't have the same kind of pressure. But Negreanu did go completely broke at one point in his career and to his credit he dropped back down to really small stakes and built his bankroll back up on his own.
    Let me give Skydog some credit -- his post quoted above was written in the English language. Many of the previous posts were indecipherable except to the cognoscenti. Which is OK -- but just saying....
    Sage Grouse

    ---------------------------------------
    'When I got on the bus for my first road game at Duke, I saw that every player was carrying textbooks or laptops. I coached in the SEC for 25 years, and I had never seen that before, not even once.' - David Cutcliffe to Duke alumni in Washington, DC, June 2013

  4. #64
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    Undisclosed
    Jason, what are the registration lines like? I heard some early horror stories so hoping that has moderated.
    “Fútbol is life!” — Dani Rojas, Richmond Greyhounds

  5. #65
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    Quote Originally Posted by OldPhiKap View Post
    Jason, what are the registration lines like? I heard some early horror stories so hoping that has moderated.
    For the $500 tourney I entered on Monday, I showed up about 30 minutes before it was due to start. I figured that would be a line and when I got to the WSOP registration area, it was full with about 50 people. I didn't think that would be too bad. As I began to get in line a security guard said, "sorry sir, the end of the line is over there." He pointed across the hall way to a line of 200+ people who were waiting to get into the registration area. Ouch! It took me close to 2 hours to get registered. I came in at level 4 of the tourney.

    So, for the $1500 tourney on Monday I bought my entry the night before. There were 3 people in line ahead of me. It took less than 2 minutes.

    Also, get there early enough to get your vaccine confirmation. They have an app that will help with it.
    I don't know what you are doing right now, but if you aren't listening to the DBR Podcast, you're doing it wrong.

  6. #66
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    Undisclosed
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    For the $500 tourney I entered on Monday, I showed up about 30 minutes before it was due to start. I figured that would be a line and when I got to the WSOP registration area, it was full with about 50 people. I didn't think that would be too bad. As I began to get in line a security guard said, "sorry sir, the end of the line is over there." He pointed across the hall way to a line of 200+ people who were waiting to get into the registration area. Ouch! It took me close to 2 hours to get registered. I came in at level 4 of the tourney.

    So, for the $1500 tourney on Monday I bought my entry the night before. There were 3 people in line ahead of me. It took less than 2 minutes.

    Also, get there early enough to get your vaccine confirmation. They have an app that will help with it.
    Thanks, I already registered with Clear for the COVID check.

    In past years, they had a bank of registration windows across from the Tropical Room (IIRC) as well as one or two spots in the Rio Pavilion. Still the same? And is the COVID check-in a separate step?

    Yeah, thinking of registering the night before but your chips are in play from the get-go (I think) so I need to like wake up and get there on time. And I don’t like the early show-ups where you start 4 or 5 handed at the table.

    Thanks for the intel, and the interesting hand info! Good luck with whatever is next!
    “Fútbol is life!” — Dani Rojas, Richmond Greyhounds

  7. #67
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    Undisclosed
    Quote Originally Posted by Skydog View Post
    You can never, ever fold that hand on the flop. You played it perfectly, and got all your money in way ahead. He just got lucky.

    What else can you do? Poker is about making the right decisions and then enduring the random variance. Painful at times, but it also gives the game it's excitement.
    Quote Originally Posted by Phredd3 View Post
    I admire professional poker players. You can literally play perfectly for weeks and still come home with less money than you had when you started. That takes supreme confidence and a rock-solid ability to leave your emotions at home. It also takes a pretty substantial bank roll at the levels these people are playing.
    “Variance.” It’s not just a psychological coping mechanism. It’s a fact.
    “Fútbol is life!” — Dani Rojas, Richmond Greyhounds

  8. #68
    Quote Originally Posted by sagegrouse View Post
    Let me give Skydog some credit -- his post quoted above was written in the English language. Many of the previous posts were indecipherable except to the cognoscenti. Which is OK -- but just saying...
    Lol, sorry about that. Poker has been my main diversion for years and I read all the theory books, blogs. etc. So I forget that terms that are common to me will sound like jargon to others.

  9. #69
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Boston, MA
    Quote Originally Posted by OldPhiKap View Post
    I randomly assigned villain JsTs as a possible hand:

    4AC4D575-1337-470F-B6FE-D00AA6D81405.jpg

    So you were 75%. I think you did exactly what you should do in a turbo. If you get it in with 75% equity you’ve found a great spot. And in a turbo you can’t wait for much better that you flopped.

    (But again, I am not good so take my thoughts with a big grain of salt).

    Note that if I give him an Ace of Spades it does not change the odds significantly.
    Hmm. I guess I'll go against the grain on this one. In a tourney, I REALLY, REALLY, REALLY, REALLY don't like calling an All-In bet early on - if I'm not 90% better to win. Why? Because even though the odds are in your favor, there's still a 25% chance that you're going to be out of the tournament. I wasn't playing in this one, and I didn't know the style of the person who went All-In, but he had already called a decent raise as the BB. Maybe he thought you were bluffing to steal his blinds, but probably unlikely in that spot - especially with another person having called the BB. He could have had A,K - in which point you're DOA. Or, as you said, pocket 6's. He could have been bluffing, but that's an enormous bluff in that position, with that flop. Turns out, he made a risky All-In Raise, with the goal of putting you all in as well. Dumb bet, on his part. Of course, not knowing his actual cards he might have had a straight draw as well. But when you called, you were basically gambling, and I'm not a big lover in gambling on my tournament life that early, with 30 plus BB's in my hand. Let's put it this way...when the spade hit on the turn, you must have felt deflated. And yet, you still had a 25% chance at that point to win, which was his odds when he went all-in.

    On his $3K open, I would have simply called, worried about a flush draw. Instead, you kind of muscled him with a raise, which he then fought back on. If you were going to call and All-In bet on his part, then you should have gone All-In with his small bet, which you (smartly, I think) didn't do initially. If you had called his $3K, then with the turn a spade, I fold on his bet. Then again, he probably would have checked in that situation, hoping to draw you in, so you might have gotten to see the River for free (with a chance of demolishing him). But that's my style. Someone who knows me well can definitely get me to fold with early All-In bets. But that player will eventually run out of luck, or put themselves all-in when I have the nuts. Then it's game, set, match. I like those players at my table, because they almost never make it to the end. I especially like when I'm the one to take them out.

    Example of a hand where I went all-in. I had about $900. Another player had $800 and the last guy had $150. I was the dealer and had 6,6. The flop was 6, 3, 2 unsuited. The SB raised $150. One other person called. I went all in. They both called. The SB (with $800) had 3, 3. The other person calling had A,4 un suited. They were both really dumb for calling my All-In bet, though perhaps they thought I had a high pair. Unfortunately, a 5 came on the river, so instead of winning $950, I only won $650. Even then I only had a 75% chance of winning, but I was the one signaling super strength and trying to get people out of the game. They guy with the straight draw was a true idiot for calling. He got lucky.

  10. #70
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    Undisclosed
    Good points. Some counters:

    1. Jason doesn’t mention it, but there is also an $800 big blind ante. So he has an M of around 11.5. (Am I the only one that still uses M?)

    https://www.wsop.com/pdfs/structuresheets/structure_4865_19766.pdf

    2. It’s a turbo — 20 minute levels here. Are we going to get better than trips in the next orbit or two?
    3. It’s a bounty tourney, so there are benefits to running up a large stack to be a hunter instead of the hunted.

    Not disagreeing. Just wondering.

  11. #71
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    Undisclosed
    What is villain’s range where we are behind?
    AK, KQ, KJ, (4 combos each, 12 total)
    K6 (3 combos)
    66 (6 combos)
    Maybe A6 suited, maybe 76 suited, maaaayyyybe 65 suited (12 combos, let’s say 6)
    So, 27 combos.

    What is villain’s range where we are ahead?
    AA (6 combos)
    Flush draw (55 total, but let’s say only a third get this far — say 18)
    Maybe QQ, JJ (12 total, let’s say 6)
    So, 30 combos plus bluffs.

    And, Jason has one draw to quads and multiple draws to what is almost assuredly the nut full house.

    An interesting spot.

  12. #72
    Quote Originally Posted by OldPhiKap View Post
    What is villain’s range where we are behind?
    AK, KQ, KJ, (4 combos each, 12 total)
    K6 (3 combos)
    66 (6 combos)
    Maybe A6 suited, maybe 76 suited, maaaayyyybe 65 suited (12 combos, let’s say 6)
    So, 27 combos.

    What is villain’s range where we are ahead?
    AA (6 combos)
    Flush draw (55 total, but let’s say only a third get this far — say 18)
    Maybe QQ, JJ (12 total, let’s say 6)
    So, 30 combos plus bluffs.

    And, Jason has one draw to quads and multiple draws to what is almost assuredly the nut full house.

    An interesting spot.
    Im confused. The got all in on flop right? So Jason only behind 66, AK and KsQs. That is only 4+4+1=9 combos. (K6 is very unlikely to call a raise preflop when the initial limper still has to act. K6 plays horrible 3-way and has to fold if initial limper c/r’s.)

    Otoh after the KK6 flop a reraise bluff seems very unlikely. There are no strong drawing hands, no straight draw possibilities and getting all in with a naked flush draw on a paired board is suicide. So Jason’s best hope of being ahead is opp has KJ,KT or maybe K9s. I believe K8 or worse golds preflop.

    So Jason is likely behind after reraise but he should still call because a) he still might be ahead (as he was), b) he can still win if behind, c) there is always a 10% chance your opponent is just making a stupid bet and d) there is a LOT of dead money in pot due to the antes and so Jason is getting great pot odds.

    A fold here would be very weak. Folding here is equivalent to players who bet small on Jeopardy daily doubles - they think they are playing it safe, but in reality they are turning down their most likely path to victory.

  13. #73
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    Quote Originally Posted by OldPhiKap View Post
    Good points. Some counters:

    1. Jason doesn’t mention it, but there is also an $800 big blind ante. So he has an M of around 11.5. (Am I the only one that still uses M?)

    https://www.wsop.com/pdfs/structures...4865_19766.pdf

    2. It’s a turbo — 20 minute levels here. Are we going to get better than trips in the next orbit or two?
    3. It’s a bounty tourney, so there are benefits to running up a large stack to be a hunter instead of the hunted.

    Not disagreeing. Just wondering.
    That is correct. The BB ante will hit you hard as the tourney moves along.
    I don't know what you are doing right now, but if you aren't listening to the DBR Podcast, you're doing it wrong.

  14. #74
    Quote Originally Posted by Udaman View Post
    Hmm. I guess I'll go against the grain on this one. In a tourney, I REALLY, REALLY, REALLY, REALLY don't like calling an All-In bet early on - if I'm not 90% better to win. Why? Because even though the odds are in your favor, there's still a 25% chance that you're going to be out of the tournament. I wasn't playing in this one, and I didn't know the style of the person who went All-In, but he had already called a decent raise as the BB. Maybe he thought you were bluffing to steal his blinds, but probably unlikely in that spot - especially with another person having called the BB. He could have had A,K - in which point you're DOA. Or, as you said, pocket 6's. He could have been bluffing, but that's an enormous bluff in that position, with that flop. Turns out, he made a risky All-In Raise, with the goal of putting you all in as well. Dumb bet, on his part. Of course, not knowing his actual cards he might have had a straight draw as well. But when you called, you were basically gambling, and I'm not a big lover in gambling on my tournament life that early, with 30 plus BB's in my hand. Let's put it this way...when the spade hit on the turn, you must have felt deflated. And yet, you still had a 25% chance at that point to win, which was his odds when he went all-in.

    On his $3K open, I would have simply called, worried about a flush draw. Instead, you kind of muscled him with a raise, which he then fought back on. If you were going to call and All-In bet on his part, then you should have gone All-In with his small bet, which you (smartly, I think) didn't do initially. If you had called his $3K, then with the turn a spade, I fold on his bet. Then again, he probably would have checked in that situation, hoping to draw you in, so you might have gotten to see the River for free (with a chance of demolishing him). But that's my style. Someone who knows me well can definitely get me to fold with early All-In bets. But that player will eventually run out of luck, or put themselves all-in when I have the nuts. Then it's game, set, match. I like those players at my table, because they almost never make it to the end. I especially like when I'm the one to take them out.
    ...
    Your flop analysis is right on. Opponent will usually turn over AK, KQ or 66 after that flop action. There will be an occasional badly played AA hands though, which Jason is crushing. And I get that you want to survive so you are inclined to fold or just ck/call until the river. And there are a lot of good arguments for the check call approach. But I still don't like the fold for the reasons I gave in my other post: Jason didn't have much history on his opponent and that means he had to give him at least a 10% chance of making a stupid bet (which turned out to be true in this case), he is alive even if opponent is ahead, Jason was getting great pot odds due to the forced antes, Jason's stack is shallow and it is a turbo. At this point he only had enough chips to last 10 more laps. And only about 5 more laps before he was blinded down so far that even a double up wouldn't be worth much.

    If he was a lot deeper and if this was a non-turbo then there is more of an argument for folding and waiting for a better spot. But I can tell you most pros would never fold top trips with a decent kicker when they only have 30 bb's. (Well, unless there are some overwhelming ICM considerations, like being on the bubble or at the final table and getting close to a big pay bump).

  15. #75
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    Undisclosed
    Quote Originally Posted by Skydog View Post
    Im confused. The got all in on flop right? So Jason only behind 66, AK and KsQs. That is only 4+4+1=9 combos. (K6 is very unlikely to call a raise preflop when the initial limper still has to act. K6 plays horrible 3-way and has to fold if initial limper c/r’s.)

    Otoh after the KK6 flop a reraise bluff seems very unlikely. There are no strong drawing hands, no straight draw possibilities and getting all in with a naked flush draw on a paired board is suicide. So Jason’s best hope of being ahead is opp has KJ,KT or maybe K9s. I believe K8 or worse golds preflop.

    So Jason is likely behind after reraise but he should still call because a) he still might be ahead (as he was), b) he can still win if behind, c) there is always a 10% chance your opponent is just making a stupid bet and d) there is a LOT of dead money in pot due to the antes and so Jason is getting great pot odds.

    A fold here would be very weak. Folding here is equivalent to players who bet small on Jeopardy daily doubles - they think they are playing it safe, but in reality they are turning down their most likely path to victory.
    I assigned a wider range to villain because he was in the big blind and only had to call 1,700 into a 4,500 pot. At least I think that’s the case, I’m on my phone and may have misread Jason’s hand description). My analysis was whether to call the shove on the flop, which I think you should.

    It’s way too early to worry about ICM or tourney life in this spot. I realize that chips lost hurt more than chips gained benefit, but this flop hit us hard. I’m willing to go with it. And as Jason added, you’re gonna get gobbled up by the blinds and the rising stakes every 20 minutes (what’s that, an orbit plus a player? The WSOP dealers outside of the big tourneys are pretty weak in a good year and there is a real shortage this year — Caesars cancelled regular tourneys on most strip casinos in order to get dealers over to the Rio).

    Enjoy everyone’s input on this. I like to think about these things, and discussions like this help. I have a lot to learn.
    “Fútbol is life!” — Dani Rojas, Richmond Greyhounds

  16. #76
    Quote Originally Posted by OldPhiKap View Post
    I assigned a wider range to villain because he was in the big blind and only had to call 1,700 into a 4,500 pot. At least I think that’s the case, I’m on my phone and may have misread Jason’s hand description). My analysis was whether to call the shove on the flop, which I think you should.

    It’s way too early to worry about ICM or tourney life in this spot. I realize that chips lost hurt more than chips gained benefit, but this flop hit us hard. I’m willing to go with it. And as Jason added, you’re gonna get gobbled up by the blinds and the rising stakes every 20 minutes (what’s that, an orbit plus a player? The WSOP dealers outside of the big tourneys are pretty weak in a good year and there is a real shortage this year — Caesars cancelled regular tourneys on most strip casinos in order to get dealers over to the Rio).

    Enjoy everyone’s input on this. I like to think about these things, and discussions like this help. I have a lot to learn.
    Same here - I like to analyze hands because I like the problem solving aspect and because I always learn something in the process. When I do it with someone else’s hand history I’m never criticizing the player - I’m just doing same thing I do with my own hands. I’m 100% sure that I’ve never played a mistake free session so there is always a lot for me to learn.

Similar Threads

  1. 2017 World Series of Poker
    By JasonEvans in forum Off Topic
    Replies: 24
    Last Post: 07-23-2017, 01:30 PM
  2. 2015 World Series of Poker
    By JasonEvans in forum Off Topic
    Replies: 24
    Last Post: 11-12-2015, 09:42 PM
  3. World Series of Poker - 2013
    By JasonEvans in forum Off Topic
    Replies: 17
    Last Post: 11-05-2013, 11:10 PM
  4. World Series of Poker 2012
    By JasonEvans in forum Off Topic
    Replies: 48
    Last Post: 11-04-2012, 07:03 PM
  5. World Series of Poker
    By JasonEvans in forum Off Topic
    Replies: 4
    Last Post: 06-20-2011, 03:35 PM

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •