Countdown to Craziness 2021

[roywhite]

All reports I've seen say that Keels really played well. Question: can he defend against guards, given his size?

Keels can shoot, and I expect Moore and Roach will surprise some with their shooting. And if we need a floor spacer in a particular point in a game, Baker will be the guy.

It is a question TBD. But I would expect him to be not superlative on defense. He did look quicker than one might expect given his 6’4”, 220lb frame. But perimeter defense is hard to judge in a setting like last night.

At least he probably won't get "knocked back".

[budwom]

At least he probably won't get "knocked back".

Ha, good one. I just read K's comments, sounds like Keels is pretty nimble for his size, which is considerable.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Only responding where I disagree or adding commentary.

Moore: Mostly as advertised. He appears more confident as a shooter, and the perimeter shots were going in. Still had hints of sloppiness, but I don’t expect that to go away completely. I was pleased with what I saw from him.

Much more confident then I would have thought. Shooting looks better. Clearly the leader of the team, which is great to see after the leader-less season last year.

Williams: hooo boy. The guy is a monster. He isn’t exactly polished inside offensively, but he is just SOOO tall. Defensively he is a black hole, absorbing seemingly all shots inside. Offensively, he hit some free throws, made a no-hesitation 3, and dunked a lot. He appears to be in for a big year, and should make life easier for everyone else.

I can't remember a Duke team where we had such a defensive presence inside. Banchero looks servicable on D, and John and Williams are clearly elite. Hell, Williams may be a top 5 defensive player in the country this year. Also, he is bigger. And this is clear evidence that "official" Duke weight and height numbers are clearly BS. He's the same "weight" as last year. Either he had a pot belly coming into his freshman year or those arms and shoulders are filled with air. Yes, he isn't Theo John, but he isn't the Brandon Ingram-esque body he had last year.

Keels: clearly comfortable will the ball, and definitely showed off his willingness to shoot. He is a nice foil to Moore and Roach. And there was clearly chemistry between him and Roach as Roach got at least 3 assists to his old high school buddy.

Color me pleasantly shocked by Keels. He is EXACTLY what this team needs: open shooter in the right place, right time. Couple that with decent all-round skills with the ball (dribbling, playmaking), and we have a great role player. Unfortunately, sounds like he's on his way to OAD.

Baker: showed a slightly more expansive shooting game, including two 12 footers in traffic and a step back 3. But otherwise was basically a more experienced Joey Baker. Which is absolutely fine for what his role will be (designated shooter).

WOW! I thought Baker looked great! Baker will never be a star. His skill set is too limited. But he needs to be someone who doesn't hesitate to shoot and looks to get open. He was neither last year. Could he be that this year? If this game is an indication, then the answer is yes!

Blakes: athletic and strong, but definitely a reserve. I suspect he will see time, but will probably be the 9th man once Griffin returns, and a situational guy this year.

I think "situational" is too kind. He's the clear 9th guy and, when AJ comes back, he'll be left with blow out minutes. He likely isn't even the insurance policy in case Roach gets injured (I think Moore slides into the 1 and then you have a ginormous backcourt of Moore, Keels, and AJ). Hope he sticks around.

[Billy Dat]

I think "situational" is too kind. He's the clear 9th guy and, when AJ comes back, he'll be left with blow out minutes. He likely isn't even the insurance policy in case Roach gets injured (I think Moore slides into the 1 and then you have a ginormous backcourt of Moore, Keels, and AJ). Hope he sticks around.

I am bullish on Blakes. I think he's got an upperclassman's frame and looks like a power 5 athlete. He's the same height as Roach but has 35 pounds on him according to the Duke roster, and it isn't because he's got baby fat.

I imagine Cameron could get pretty crazy if Spencer Hubbard gets on the floor in a real game. That kid is tiny.

[CDu]

Only responding where I disagree or adding commentary.

No real disagreements here, just good clarifications and more expansion where there is fun stuff to talk about .

I can't remember a Duke team where we had such a defensive presence inside. Banchero looks servicable on D, and John and Williams are clearly elite. Hell, Williams may be a top 5 defensive player in the country this year. Also, he is bigger. And this is clear evidence that "official" Duke weight and height numbers are clearly BS. He's the same "weight" as last year. Either he had a pot belly coming into his freshman year or those arms and shoulders are filled with air. Yes, he isn't Theo John, but he isn't the Brandon Ingram-esque body he had last year.

Yeah, the length of our 4/5s is going to be impressive. Williams and John will likely never play together, but I'd feel pretty comfortable with either guy as the shotblocking presence inside. Obviously Williams is the clear #1, and we knew that coming in. But John appears to be a smart and physical player, and it is easy to see why he had amazing block rates at Marquette. Banchero seems to have a nose for the ball, and I suspect he'll lead the team in rebounds as Williams and John take turns as the shotblocker. But even Banchero has the length and athleticism to be a shotchanger. And this is all absent the swingman Griffin, who I think will play a prominent role as a versatile defender when he returns.

Teams are going to have to be very well organized and/or be very perimeter-oriented to score this year. Especially if we decide to sprinkle in some 2-3 zone. Griffin, Banchero, and Williams/John would be a nightmarish back line in a 2-3.

And I agree about Williams. I was a bit nervous when his weight was listed as the same as last year. He's clearly thicker than he was last year. Not that he's thick by any means, but he's not the beanpole he was last year. I'm really excited about what we're going to get from the center spot this year.

Color me pleasantly shocked by Keels. He is EXACTLY what this team needs: open shooter in the right place, right time. Couple that with decent all-round skills with the ball (dribbling, playmaking), and we have a great role player. Unfortunately, sounds like he's on his way to OAD.

Yeah, I think the preseason hype on Keels is real, at least based on what I saw last night. He's very fluid with the ball, very confident and capable as a shooter, and versatile. I agree that there is a more than decent chance he's one and done. But hopefully that's a good thing, as it should mean he played pretty darn well this year. Coming into the season, I felt like the expectation should be something between freshman Moore and freshman Steward, but now I kind of think freshman Steward should be on the lower end of expectation for him.

WOW! I thought Baker looked great! Baker will never be a star. His skill set is too limited. But he needs to be someone who doesn't hesitate to shoot and looks to get open. He was neither last year. Could he be that this year? If this game is an indication, then the answer is yes!

Yeah, to be clear, I thought last night was a close to maximized version of what Baker can be. He was able to get a shot off more confidently than in previous years, and was definitely hunting his shot. He's never going to be a ball-dominant playmaker. But on this team, his role will be to find open spaces and hit open shots. And he showed enough ability to punish closeouts (with his drive to the free throw line and his stepback moves) that he should fill that role. I was very pleased. But in reading my comments it may not have come across how fully pleased I was. He's going to be a role player for us, but I feel pretty confident he can fill that role this year.

I think "situational" is too kind. He's the clear 9th guy and, when AJ comes back, he'll be left with blow out minutes. He likely isn't even the insurance policy in case Roach gets injured (I think Moore slides into the 1 and then you have a ginormous backcourt of Moore, Keels, and AJ). Hope he sticks around.

I definitely don't expect a lot of minutes for Blakes. When I said "situational", I am thinking the "we need to apply all-out pressure defensively and create havoc". His size, length, athleticism, and smarts suggest he can be that third/fourth perimeter guy in those specific situations. I agree that the three perimeter ballhandlers are going to be Roach/Moore/Keels, and he would otherwise just be spot minutes as an off-ball player. But I kind of think of his role this year being sort of like Jordan Goldwire's sophomore year role: come in with the full-court press lineup, try to wreak havoc. It's a very specific situation, and not one that will likely see a ton of minutes this year. Otherwise, I agree he'll likely only play in mop-up duty, or as a stopgap if Moore/Keels are overwhelmed with a super-quick defensive assignment.

All in all, I was pretty pleased with what I saw last night. I would have liked to have seen better shooting nights for Roach and Banchero, but I'll take the passing Roach showed and I'll take the wow plays Banchero showed, and hope that their shooting was just opening night (this was the first true Cameron experience for either player) jitters. Pretty much everything else was a pleasant surprise or confirmation of positive expectations. Even Griffin wiggling his knee and jumping a tad felt like a positive sign.

[CameronBornAndBred]

Not really.

there have been several changes, not including those mandated by the rules in the past decade. Center court has changed at least twice, once to remove the basketball hoop from inside the iron D, and once to move from a smaller blue iron D in a small white circle to a white iron D in the larger blue circle. Further, the "DUKE" text on the baselines was significantly shrunk so it would not be partially covered by the photographers sitting on the end line.

If my memory serves correctly, they replace the floor ~every other year, and refinish it each offseason.

Yep. That's how it was back in 2009 at least. (The hippie wasn't part of the design.)

DukeAvatar.jpg

[camion]

The part I enjoyed watching most during the scrimmage was the battle (appropriate word) down low between Mark Williams and Theo John. Both were wearing their big boy pants for this one. Mark was longer, but Theo was like a brick wall in the low post. Theo is a man and Mark is fast approaching man status. I'm really glad to have them both this year.

I will note that both showed some skills.

[dukelifer]

Keels can shoot, and I expect Moore and Roach will surprise some with their shooting. And if we need a floor spacer in a particular point in a game, Baker will be the guy.



It is a question TBD. But I would expect him to be not superlative on defense. He did look quicker than one might expect given his 6’4”, 220lb frame. But perimeter defense is hard to judge in a setting like last night.

I am expecting Baker to be a more consistent shooter and that will be very important for this team. This could be a different team with Griffin in the mix- assuming his knees hold up. There was no mention of Bates Jones. I am thinking he could be better than folks think- a solid role player - but perhaps that is wishful thinking.

[CDu]

I am expecting Baker to be a more consistent shooter and that will be very important for this team. This could be a different team with Griffin in the mix- assuming his knees hold up. There was no mention of Bates Jones. I am thinking he could be better than folks think- a solid role player - but perhaps that is wishful thinking.

Yes on Baker and Griffin. Probably a no on Jones. Banchero is going to play a ton at PF, and Moore and Griffin are both capable at PF. Jones is pretty clearly the 10th man, and his experience is useful in practice. But I can’t see him contributing much in an on-court role this year. Emergency big is probably his role.

[scottdude8]

Just watched Coach K’s presser… did anyone else notice he talked about the possibility of playing Mark, Theo, and Paolo together?!?! I have to think that may be a short term solution to AJ’s absence, but at minimum it sounds like we’ll see some of Theo and Mark on the floor together. If that works, that adds a TON of flexibility to our rotation..,

[flyingdutchdevil]

Just watched Coach K’s presser… did anyone else notice he talked about the possibility of playing Mark, Theo, and Paolo together?!?! I have to think that may be a short term solution to AJ’s absence, but at minimum it sounds like we’ll see some of Theo and Mark on the floor together. If that works, that adds a TON of flexibility to our rotation..,

Coach speak!!!!!!!!!

I don’t buy it. Banchero is the kind of player Coach K could easily play at the five (and he has certainly done that a lot in the past). Doubt Banchero plays ‘down’ (and K is well known for playing ‘up’ rather than ‘down’).

I do want to see a Roach/Keels/Moore/AJ/Banchero line up at some point. All 5 can shoot, all 5 can run.

[CDu]

Just watched Coach K’s presser… did anyone else notice he talked about the possibility of playing Mark, Theo, and Paolo together?!?! I have to think that may be a short term solution to AJ’s absence, but at minimum it sounds like we’ll see some of Theo and Mark on the floor together. If that works, that adds a TON of flexibility to our rotation..,

I don’t think there is going to be that trio on the floor together. And, frankly, it might be a train wreck if we did see it. Awful floor spacing on offense, and quickness issues on defense.

We might see some of John and Williams together, but that also feels unlikely. And it would be sparingly used at best, as I can’t imagine too many minutes without Banchero on the floor.

Especially if, as it seems based on last night, Griffin will be back sooner rather than later.

[dukelifer]

I don’t think there is going to be that trio on the floor together. And, frankly, it might be a train wreck if we did see it. Awful floor spacing on offense, and quickness issues on defense.

We might see some of John and Williams together, but that also feels unlikely. And it would be sparingly used at best, as I can’t imagine too many minutes without Banchero on the floor.

Especially if, as it seems based on last night, Griffin will be back sooner rather than later.

Well if Williams can hit from deep like yesterday - you never know. He will be a tough cover out there.

[ClemmonsDevil]

I don’t think there is going to be that trio on the floor together. And, frankly, it might be a train wreck if we did see it. Awful floor spacing on offense, and quickness issues on defense.

We might see some of John and Williams together, but that also feels unlikely. And it would be sparingly used at best, as I can’t imagine too many minutes without Banchero on the floor.

Especially if, as it seems based on last night, Griffin will be back sooner rather than later.

Maybe. Banchero is a wing, if not a floor spacer. I almost think of this team like the bully ball Tar Heels when they are really big. The best shot is a missed shot because they just go play volleyball on the offensive boards.

[CDu]

Well if Williams can hit from deep like yesterday - you never know. He will be a tough cover out there.

Maybe. Banchero is a wing, if not a floor spacer. I almost think of this team like the bully ball Tar Heels when they are really big. The best shot is a missed shot because they just go play volleyball on the offensive boards.

If I were a betting man (I am not), I would bet heavily on the under of number of minutes with 3 bigs on the floor this season. Like, even if the over/under was something like 5.

And no, Banchero is not a wing. He is a big. A very talented and versatile big, but a big. And more importantly, neither John nor Williams have the skill set to play at the 4.

I think people underestimate the importance of quickness in basketball. There is a reason Coach K historically plays guys up a position rather than down a position. If you can’t stay in front of your man defensively, it causes big problems for your defense. And that 3-big lineup would have multiple guys who would have trouble defending guards/wings on the perimeter.

Now, Williams, John, and Banchero will play a lot, and I doubt there will be a ton of minutes in which we don’t have two of them out there. But I will be shocked if we see many minutes with the three of them out there together.

Even the Heels, who are notorious for playing big, don’t play 3 bigs together.

[brlftz]

Others have said something similar but I’ll say it again - Roy would make that infuriatingly effective somehow.

[ClemmonsDevil]

If I were a betting man (I am not), I would bet heavily on the under of number of minutes with 3 bigs on the floor this season. Like, even if the over/under was something like 5.

And no, Banchero is not a wing. He is a big. A very talented and versatile big, but a big. And more importantly, neither John nor Williams have the skill set to play at the 4.

I think people underestimate the importance of quickness in basketball. There is a reason Coach K historically plays guys up a position rather than down a position. If you can’t stay in front of your man defensively, it causes big problems for your defense. And that 3-big lineup would have multiple guys who would have trouble defending guards/wings on the perimeter.

Now, Williams, John, and Banchero will play a lot, and I doubt there will be a ton of minutes in which we don’t have two of them out there. But I will be shocked if we see many minutes with the three of them out there together.

Even the Heels, who are notorious for playing big, don’t play 3 bigs together.

I disagree. Which should make you feel VERY comfortable that you are correct!

[kshepinthehouse]

I disagree. Which should make you feel VERY comfortable that you are correct!

Yea at 6-10 250 lbs he’s not a wing.

[jimsumner]

Williams, John and Banchero might work for a few minutes as a change-of-pace in a zone. But, I agree with others, as a primary option, I do not see it happening.

[MChambers]

Williams, John and Banchero might work for a few minutes as a change-of-pace in a zone. But, I agree with others, as a primary option, I do not see it happening.

Would be the college equivalent of the Seattle Sonics’ Winnebago Wall, with James Donaldson, Jack Sikma, and Lonnie Shelton. The game has changed a lot since then.