Went to Game 2 of the NLDS in Milwaukee.
Braves pitching that day -- and really most of the series -- has been on fire. Or is that just the Brewers anemic offense? No way to know, I guess. Whichever of the lineups the Braves face next -- or in the World Series -- is going to be a lot better and a lot deeper than the Brew Crew.
Game was fun to watch -- even rooting for the Brewers. Really a lot of fun to be back in a packed park with that kind of energy. Brewers just got cold at a bad time. Wonder what might have been if they'd really added a bat or two at the deadline.
I'm probably the only Brewers fan on the board, but here goes.
Pitching sets up well for MKE for next year. Burnes, Woodruff and Peralta all back. Ashby will probably be integrated in the rotation. Hader, Williams, Cousins Hauser and Suter should all be back too. Need to replace/resign Boxberger and Strickland, but they've done a great job building bullpens from one year to the next in Milwaukee. Question will be offense. Pretty much everyone other than Escobar is under contract. Payroll's relatively low. They can make a move if they want -- but where do they play them? They should be in the market for an impact bat at the corners, but will they make that move. Not getting much production from CF, either, but Cain and JBJ are under contract for another year for $28M total. Can't sink more money there.
Need Yeli to get healthy too, but I don't know how much hope there is at this point. He's been in the weeds for a season and a half.
If you are in the area and a baseball fan, I highly recommend a game at Miller Park, er, I mean American Family Field. It's one of the best places to see a game I've been. We've been going to 4-5 games a year up there (pre-COVID) for a while now and it's turned me into a Brewers fan.
Enough about the Brewers. Congrats to the Braves. I'll be interested, but more focused on the ALCS, where my true love, the Red Sox, have a daunting task ahead of them. But they've already toppled one titan...
Ok, so here’s another question to you and others who know this odds stuff. Do the oddsmakers rely on deep data stuff, such as how Dodger pitchers, compared to Giants pitchers, have done against Braves, Astros, Sox? How about in home v. away parks? Ditto for Dodgers compared to Giants hitters against Braves, Astros, Sox pitchers? If yes, would they presumably focus on 2021 season?
If generally “yes” to these questions, one would probably have to go deeper into the deep data than merely looking at Dodgers’ and Giants’ records v. the other 3 teams in ‘21. Neither played the Red Sox. Giants were 2-1 v. Astros, 3-3 v. Braves; Dodgers were 2-2 v. Astros, 4-2 v. Braves. But, as the Astros have best WS odds, the fact that the Giants had a better record than the Dodgers v. Astros, albeit it over fewer games, would seem to push Giants a bit ahead of the Dodgers. Ah, but Giants played Astros only in SF, whereas Dodgers played Astros twice each home and away.
So, my dive into deep data is obviously too shallow. The algorithms must get a lot more complicated. Yes?
I'm a Red Sox fan and O certainly didn't think they would make it this far.
I was happy they made the playoffs(for them to miss it after being swept by the Yankees would have brought back memories of '78). And then they beat the Yankees. After that, anything more is gravy. Tampa was a better team all year, but the Red Sox managed to squeak(or a Renfroe hip check) it out in 4. Now they will take on the Astros, and will be underdogs again, but we will see how far they can go. Javier Vazquez probably played himself into some nice money this offseason, just missing out on an $8 million dollar option for the regular season and having a bad year both offensively and(his specialty) defensively, and there aren't many catchers out there available right now. But getting the game winning homer and the series winning hit to start the run to victory(which I'm amazed they didn't pinch run for him sooner)...
Oddsmakers probably don’t do deep data. They’re usually just interested in getting an equal number of dollars bet on both sides, so they make money on the spread.
Sites like Fangraphs do pretty deep data. They certainly consider roster composition and probable pitching matchups, like Uriah and Webb tomorrow. I don’t know if they look at how individual pitchers do against other teams or hitters, it probably depends on whether they have found that data to be very predictive. I don’t know whether it matters how Trea Turner has done against Webb, especially given how few ABs Turner has had against Webb.
Fangraphs has two ways of calculating odds in playoff games, but I haven’t found an explanation of exactly how they are done. Giants are 51.8% favorites tomorrow under the ZIPS system: https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/...st-season-zips
This is all house money. Didn't expect the playoffs. Very much expected the worst against the dreaded Yankees, and figured we had no chance against the Rays - who are really, really damned good.
Now on to Houston, who is also really damned good. They won 5 of 7 in the regular season. But, hey, anything's possible right?
As for the future? Lots of money coming off that payroll the next couple of years, but lots of spots opening up too. Bogaerts has an opt out after next year. Going to need to give Devers the Brinks truck. Hopefully we'll see some of the guys from the minors like Duran, Casas, Downs, Wong and eventually Meyer and Yorke filling spots cheaply as young, homegrown guys.
Belated thanks to MChambers for this answer to my questions about odds.
Speaking of odd, I just learned that if the Giants win tomorrow, they’ll have home advantage v. Braves. That’s not the odd. If the Dodgers win tomorrow, Braves start NLCS at home, as the Dodgers were Wild Card.
But if Dodgers get to WS, they have home advantage, owing to best reg season win % compared to any AL opponent.
My wife and I attended a Cardinal-Brewer game September, 2019 and we sat beside a family of Brewer fans. They were cordial, big Brewer fans and knew the game of baseball. We enjoyed their company. I've heard from other Cardinal fans that most Brewer fans are that way. I wouldn't mind visiting American Family Field one day(bucket list?) I've sort of rooted for them outside the Cardinals and Braves but I'm just a huge baseball fan on general. Back when I was kid and there were just the NL & AL teams(no divisions), I could tell you the name of every position player on every team. Back when there was no social media, the newspapers published every game with the box score and batting average of each player. I knew the average for every Cardinal. I agree the Brewers will be a handful with that pitching staff but they need to improve their hitting. Getting the good Christian Yelich back would be a good start.
I was the geekiest of baseball geeks when I was a kid. I had the Strat-O-Matic cards for many years in the 60s and would play games by myself, keeping stats and standings and the whole 9 yards. I also got a pack of cards for the greatest teams of all time, and I enjoyed stacking the deck to have my '24 Senators beat the '27 Yankees. There are times I still wish I had my game and the whole set of cards, I have no memory of what became of them.
Sorry for the digression down (lack of) memory lane.
I'm originally from the Connecticut suburbs of NYC, and have been a Yankees fan all my life, and started rooting for the Cardinals as a teenager (and have lived in St. Louis for 40+ years). I have attended Yankees-Brewers games at the old County Stadium (wearing Yankees gear) and Cardinals-Brewers games (wearing Cardinals gear) both at County Stadium and at the ballpark that was then known as Miller Park. They are very serious about tailgating, and it's a fun atmosphere. I'd recommend it for that more than the ballpark itself (which is good, but not something special along the order of PNC in Pittsburgh). Brewers fans have always been cordial with my wife and me, despite our wearing the wrong team's stuff. The only thing that made us feel like outsiders there was that we were drinking Budweiser.
https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/...er-sources-say
Despite a team-record 17-game winning streak that carried the St. Louis Cardinals to an MLB wild-card berth, Mike Shildt was fired as manager Thursday.
Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak cited "philosophical differences" to explain Shildt's dismissal. He declined to expand on those differences, saying the move was "something that popped up recently."
Mozeliak noted that Shildt was heading into the final year of his contract but said it wasn't the sole reason for parting ways. Shildt had signed a three-year contract extension after the 2019 season.
Dodgers starting reliever Cory Knebel in Game 5. Hoping to get Urias warmed up before he faces the top of the order?
I expect this one to come down to the end.
Carolina delenda est
Excellent clutch hitting from the Dodgers - Lux and Bellinger hit perfectly placed balls through the shifts.
Just be you. You is enough. - K, 4/5/10, 0:13.8 to play, 60-59 Duke.
You're all jealous hypocrites. - Titus on Laettner
You see those guys? Animals. They're animals. - SIU Coach Chris Lowery, on Duke
Mad Max got it done. Giants are going home and that is that.