Dukies on the 2022 PGA and LPGA Tours

[dudog84]

Alex with back-to-back birdies to pull within 1 of the cut line. C'mon Alex, just one more shot!

[arnie]

Leona 3 back and tied for 5th in the Handa LPGA tourney in Ireland. This tourney has a low payout and only Leona, Liu and Belac from Duke entered. Liu and Belac missed the cut.

[seacap29]

Well, Alex just doubled #1 (10th). Needs to be at least three under for the next eight holes.

[arnie]

Well, Alex just doubled #1 (10th). Needs to be at least three under for the next eight holes.

The live projected Fedex points list shows Alex at 69. Assuming he misses the cut; will be a wild ride for him until Sunday afternoon.

[dudog84]

Barring miracles on the last 2 holes, Alex will not be playing this weekend. We'll know Sunday about next week.

[seacap29]

With Kevin, Adam,and Alex all missing the FedEx St.Jude cut, the only Duke pro still playing (known to me) is Max Greyserman (70,71) in the Pinnacle in Omaha.

[dudog84]

So everyone has finished, and Alex is projected to only fall to #68. However, there will still be movement on the points and the right/wrong combination of factors could still keep him out of next weekend.

I count 28 golfers that were ranked lower than him Wednesday as making the cut. But many may be too far behind to pass Alex without a top finish, even with quadruple points. As an example, Sam Ryder was ranked #101, but he started about 250 points behind Alex. Depending on ties and such, it looks like a 10th place finish will get you about 250 points. By the time you get to a 30th place finish, it looks like you'll get less than 100 points.

Not sure my explanation makes any sense, but all things considered, Alex should be safe. But strange things happen on the course, so he'll be sweating a bit on Sunday. And he'll probably need a top 3 finish next week to have a chance at playing the final weekend as it looks like he'll be about 500 points behind 30th place after this weekend. He really needed a good showing this weekend to grab some points, but what's done is done.

[Tooold]

I count 28 golfers that were ranked lower than him Wednesday as making the cut. But many may be too far behind to pass Alex without a top finish, even with quadruple points. As an example, Sam Ryder was ranked #101, but he started about 250 points behind Alex. Depending on ties and such, it looks like a 10th place finish will get you about 250 points. By the time you get to a 30th place finish, it looks like you'll get less than 100 points.
.

Thanks for this info! I noticed several players who were just a little bit behind him (low to mid 70s) and who made the cut. Those were the ones that worried me. For example, Cam Davis and Brendan Todd are projected at 71 and 72 (if they finish in their current spots, T60 and T46 respectively). Maybe they only get double digit points by moving farther up the leaderboard (???), but I wonder if they might have the best chance to pass Alex?

[dudog84]

Thanks for this info! I noticed several players who were just a little bit behind him (low to mid 70s) and who made the cut. Those were the ones that worried me. For example, Cam Davis and Brendan Todd are projected at 71 and 72 (if they finish in their current spots, T60 and T46 respectively). Maybe they only get double digit points by moving farther up the leaderboard (???), but I wonder if they might have the best chance to pass Alex?

Alex was sitting at #61 so 10 of those lower guys would have to pass him to push him to #71. That's why I think he's pretty safe. It would take a somewhat perfect storm to flush him out.

Also remember, even if those guys move up, maybe the guys currently above Alex have a bad weekend and move down and back below him.

In addition to your two mentions, the guys to watch this weekend (in regards to Alex) are Ryan Palmer, Wyndham Clark, and Andrew Putnam (can they hold their places) and Beau Hossler and Gary Woodland (can they get hot and move up). I don't think anyone outside of those guys will move Alex.

[DU82]

With Kevin, Adam,and Alex all missing the FedEx St.Jude cut, the only Duke pro still playing (known to me) is Max Greyserman (70,71) in the Pinnacle in Omaha.

Leona McGuire is still playing in the tournament in Northern Ireland this week. She goes into today’s round tied for 12th.

[CrazyNotCrazie]

Alex was sitting at #61 so 10 of those lower guys would have to pass him to push him to #71. That's why I think he's pretty safe. It would take a somewhat perfect storm to flush him out.

Also remember, even if those guys move up, maybe the guys currently above Alex have a bad weekend and move down and back below him.

In addition to your two mentions, the guys to watch this weekend (in regards to Alex) are Ryan Palmer, Wyndham Clark, and Andrew Putnam (can they hold their places) and Beau Hossler and Gary Woodland (can they get hot and move up). I don't think anyone outside of those guys will move Alex.

How could someone drop below him? Didn’t he warn 0 so no one could have done worse than that?

[dudog84]

How could someone drop below him? Didn’t he warn 0 so no one could have done worse than that?

They moved above him based on their play Thu-Fri. But if they drop down the leaderboard and lose points, they could drop below him again.

I'm not going to look up exact points, but I think this will demonstrate. Say at the beginning of the tournament Alex had 500 FedEx points, and Player X had 400. Say Player X is currently T20 and that is worth 200 points, he now has 600 to Alex's 500. Now say he has a bad weekend and tumbles down the leaderboard and finishes tomorrow at T50, and that is only worth 50 points. So at the end of the day, Alex has the 500 he started with, but Player X ultimately only gained 50 points and finishes with 450.

Edit: Check out this page on the PGA Tour website. It's programmed to change by the minute during a tournament based upon a player's spot on the leaderboard. If Spaun falls out of the lead, he will lose hundreds of points and tumble down this chart. Winner gets 2000, I believe 2nd gets 1200. So moving down 1 spot on the leaderboard will cost him about 7 spots in the FedEx standings.

https://www.pgatour.com/fedexcup/pro...standings.html

[CrazyNotCrazie]

They moved above him based on their play Thu-Fri. But if they drop down the leaderboard and lose points, they could drop below him again.

I'm not going to look up exact points, but I think this will demonstrate. Say at the beginning of the tournament Alex had 500 FedEx points, and Player X had 400. Say Player X is currently T20 and that is worth 200 points, he now has 600 to Alex's 500. Now say he has a bad weekend and tumbles down the leaderboard and finishes tomorrow at T50, and that is only worth 50 points. So at the end of the day, Alex has the 500 he started with, but Player X ultimately only gained 50 points and finishes with 450.

Edit: Check out this page on the PGA Tour website. It's programmed to change by the minute during a tournament based upon a player's spot on the leaderboard. If Spaun falls out of the lead, he will lose hundreds of points and tumble down this chart. Winner gets 2000, I believe 2nd gets 1200. So moving down 1 spot on the leaderboard will cost him about 7 spots in the FedEx standings.

https://www.pgatour.com/fedexcup/pro...standings.html

Gotcha. I thought you meant based on their rankings entering the tournament.

[dudog84]

Add Hayden Buckley and Taylor Moore to that list. Lots of golf left, LOTS of moving parts, I'm going to stop paying attention until tomorrow afternoon.

For anyone interested, the Tour website leaderboard has a neat feature where you can specify your favorites, so you don't have to scroll through the leaderboard to see what they're up to.

[Tooold]

If Spaun falls out of the lead, he will lose hundreds of points and tumble down this chart. Winner gets 2000, I believe 2nd gets 1200. So moving down 1 spot on the leaderboard will cost him about 7 spots in the FedEx standings.

https://www.pgatour.com/fedexcup/pro...standings.html

Yes, I know these tournaments are worth a lot more than those earlier in the year, but I still thought it was remarkable that Spaun was so high given that he has only won one tournament this year. It just shows that you can lose the FedEx cup earlier in the first 3/4 of the season (by not getting enough points to make it to these final, valuable tourneys), but you can only win it at the end.

Edit….That website is very helpful! It already shows that Alex has dropped to 71, but I realize that can change as well if the players closest behind him do not end up picking up many points. And it is amazing how quickly the points drop off as you move down the leaderboard.

[dudog84]

Yes, I know these tournaments are worth a lot more than those earlier in the year, but I still thought it was remarkable that Spaun was so high given that he has only won one tournament this year. It just shows that you can lose the FedEx cup earlier in the first 3/4 of the season (by not getting enough points to make it to these final, valuable tourneys), but you can only win it at the end.

Edit….That website is very helpful! It already shows that Alex has dropped to 71, but I realize that can change as well if the players closest behind him do not end up picking up many points. And it is amazing how quickly the points drop off as you move down the leaderboard.

Yes. Cam Davis made the weekend on the cut line but had a good day and shot -3. However, he only has 6 more points than Alex. If he drops just 1 place on the leaderboard tomorrow, he probably falls below Alex. Ryan Palmer started the day in the top 5, but had fallen to T9 before he even teed off. He was way ahead of Alex, but has already dropped below him.

Like I said, Alex made this a nerve-wracking weekend by not making the cut.

Edit: Alex has already moved back into the top 70 as I wrote this.

[dudog84]

Saturday's over, and Alex has been bumped out of next week largely because 6 guys below him, some far below him on Thursday, are T8 or better. One guy is only 0.2 points ahead. At least 2 (someone currently below could get hot and rise) of those guys have to falter. I wonder how Alex will sleep tonight...and hopefully a few of those guys will sleep worse.

[seacap29]

Alex's Duke teammate for a couple of years, Max Greyserman, continues his recovery from wrist surgery by scoring 14 pars and four birdies today in Omaha (Korn Ferry Pinnacle Bank Open) and is T34.

[dudog84]

For those interested if Alex will make next weekend, these are the guys I think you have to watch today:

Buckley
Clark
Davis
Duncan
Palmer
Putnam
Scott

Now, if someone goes -5 or +5 and makes a huge move on the field either way, they could also affect Alex's spot. I just think these are the guys where moving a few spots on the leaderboard can make a big difference.

[AGDukesky]

For those interested if Alex will make next weekend, these are the guys I think you have to watch today:

Buckley
Clark
Davis
Duncan
Palmer
Putnam
Scott

Now, if someone goes -5 or +5 and makes a huge move on the field either way, they could also affect Alex's spot. I just think these are the guys where moving a few spots on the leaderboard can make a big difference.

Thank you for compiling that list- I’m using it while watching. It looks like Hodges was a guy who had a chance to pass Alex but just missed a putt on 18 to keep him outside.

Edit: hope this isn’t a jinx but Alex is currently sitting right at #70🤞