View Poll Results: Which will be the top 5 boxoffice winners of winter?

Voters
28. You may not vote on this poll
  • Venom: Let There Be Carnage

    12 42.86%
  • James Bond: No Time to Die

    14 50.00%
  • Dune

    16 57.14%
  • Eternals

    16 57.14%
  • Ghostbusters: Afterlife

    9 32.14%
  • Encanto

    8 28.57%
  • Spider-man: No Way Home

    27 96.43%
  • Sing 2

    11 39.29%
  • Matrix: Resurrections

    15 53.57%
  • Morbius

    1 3.57%
  • Uncharted

    1 3.57%
  • Other (field)

    7 25.00%
Multiple Choice Poll.
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Results 81 to 100 of 154
  1. #81
    Join Date
    Feb 2018
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    Durham, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by Phredd3 View Post
    Easier, but as I posted elsewhere, it really takes a theater to do it justice, IMO.
    Self-quoting to add that I did NOT pick Dune in the contest, because of the HBO simul-release. I don't think it will challenge with that handicap, as I think that while Dune will have quite a few who never see it in theater, there will be even more potential repeat viewers who re-watch on video, instead. I could be wrong about this, but my understanding is that it is repeat customers that really drive up the box office numbers. I'm curious if that comports with Jason's more insider take.

  2. #82
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    New Bern, NC unless it's a home football game then I'm grilling on Devil's Alley
    Eternals is not reviewing well, as least as not as far as Marvel movies go. (Good for most movies, but not Marvel good.) It won't be surprising if this will be Chloť Zhao's first and last big budget superhero action movie.

    It will still make gobs of money and is a lock for the contest.
    Q "Why do you like Duke, you didn't even go there." A "Because my art school didn't have a basketball team."

  3. #83
    Join Date
    May 2007
    Location
    Baltimore, MD
    Quote Originally Posted by CameronBornAndBred View Post
    Eternals is not reviewing well, as least as not as far as Marvel movies go. (Good for most movies, but not Marvel good.) It won't be surprising if this will be Chloť Zhao's first and last big budget superhero action movie.


    It will still make gobs of money and is a lock for the contest.
    My logic for excluding Dune and Eternals from my picks, was that they were so dense that they would be hard to draw the average moviegoer in if they weren't already familiar with the stories. I am fully prepared to be wrong about this. After all, Eternals is a Marvel movie and, by definition, will make gobs of money.

  4. #84
    I'd really, really like Spiderman to do horrifically, that way that one non-voter can say, "Thought so."

  5. #85
    Well, Dune isn't doing so well. Looks like we could have our first pick going down.

    1. Venom: $190m
    2. No Time To Die: $133m
    3. Halloween Kills: $85m
    4. Dune: $69m
    5. Addams Family 2: $53m

    I don't see Dune holding onto a top 5 spot at this point.

  6. #86
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Raleigh, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by PackMan97 View Post
    Well, Dune isn't doing so well. Looks like we could have our first pick going down.

    1. Venom: $190m
    2. No Time To Die: $133m
    3. Halloween Kills: $85m
    4. Dune: $69m
    5. Addams Family 2: $53m

    I don't see Dune holding onto a top 5 spot at this point.
    I think Dune would have had a tough time even without the HBOMax release. With​ the HBOMax release? Not sure it ever had a chance.

  7. #87
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    New Bern, NC unless it's a home football game then I'm grilling on Devil's Alley
    I'm going to lose because I didn't pick "Other", and Moonfall will be in that list.

    And it's going to make tons and tons of cash. (It looks like a theater only release as far as I can tell.

    Q "Why do you like Duke, you didn't even go there." A "Because my art school didn't have a basketball team."

  8. #88
    That looks like fun. I love a good end of the world flick!

  9. #89
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    New Bern, NC unless it's a home football game then I'm grilling on Devil's Alley
    Quote Originally Posted by PackMan97 View Post
    That looks like fun. I love a good end of the world flick!
    I know we'll be seeing it in theaters. My gf is the same as you, if the planet is doomed, she'll be watching.
    Q "Why do you like Duke, you didn't even go there." A "Because my art school didn't have a basketball team."

  10. #90
    Join Date
    Feb 2018
    Location
    Durham, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by Acymetric View Post
    I think Dune would have had a tough time even without the HBOMax release. With​ the HBOMax release? Not sure it ever had a chance.
    I don't agree. I think Dune would have been a major hit with a theaters-only release. I actually think the HBOMax simultaneous opening is going to hurt the sequel quite a bit, too. The expectation has been set, and if your TV didn't have the very best visual and sound equipment for Part 1, you missed the total immersion experience the film provides. I think that may have been a major marketing mistake costing the studio possibly multiple hundreds of millions of dollars.

    But of course, there will be no way to prove or disprove either one us, so I'm sure we will both feel justified in our pronouncements!

  11. #91
    Join Date
    Nov 2009
    Location
    Richmond, VA
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...y-marvel-movie

    Ouch!

    "Eternals may not be the worst of Marvelís movies, but itís undoubtedly the most disappointing,Ē wrote Nicholas Barber, who gave the picture three stars at BBC.com. ďSeriously, what a snooze,Ē said Johnny Oleksinski in the New York Post."
    As they say in the article, this doesn't always equate to the box-office. We'll see. (Still glad I didn't choose it in my top 5)
    "That young man has an extra step on his ladder the rest of us just don't have."

  12. #92
    Join Date
    Feb 2008
    Location
    New Bern, NC unless it's a home football game then I'm grilling on Devil's Alley
    Quote Originally Posted by Nrrrrvous View Post
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...y-marvel-movie

    Ouch!



    As they say in the article, this doesn't always equate to the box-office. We'll see. (Still glad I didn't choose it in my top 5)
    It's actually polling as "rotten" on RT.
    Q "Why do you like Duke, you didn't even go there." A "Because my art school didn't have a basketball team."

  13. #93
    Join Date
    Nov 2009
    Location
    Richmond, VA
    Quote Originally Posted by CameronBornAndBred View Post
    It's actually polling as "rotten" on RT.
    Wow, it has plummeted to a score of 53. That is by far the lowest of the Marvel movies. I guess we'll find out if the audience agrees in a day or two.
    "That young man has an extra step on his ladder the rest of us just don't have."

  14. #94
    With almost a weekís perspective on this, Dune should be in the top 5 movies of this millennium, let alone this winter (which hasnít started yet). I canít remember enjoying a movie so much since seeing The Matrix in Durham, NC, pre-Y2K.

    Because all of us will define ourselves by Y2K, and not something like Covid, right?
    Carolina delenda est

  15. #95
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    The Princess Diana film, Spencer, starring Kristen Stewart is borderline unwatchable. Here is my 100-word review: http://flixchat.blogspot.com/2021/11...s-spencer.html

    Stewart gives her all to the role, but Diana is portrayed like a twitchy drug addict suffering from delusions and self-destructive behavior. They took one of the most beloved women in history and made her utterly unlikeable.
    I don't know what you are doing right now, but if you aren't listening to the DBR Podcast, you're doing it wrong.

  16. #96
    Quote Originally Posted by cato View Post
    With almost a weekís perspective on this, Dune should be in the top 5 movies of this millennium, let alone this winter (which hasnít started yet). I canít remember enjoying a movie so much since seeing The Matrix in Durham, NC, pre-Y2K.

    Because all of us will define ourselves by Y2K, and not something like Covid, right?
    I tend to think of movies in terms of BTPM and ATPM. Before and After the Phantom Menace. I feel like I became a much greater skeptic after the Phantom Menace. It was like a bit of my childhood died watching that movie.

  17. #97
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    So, I wanna know what YmoBeThere thinks of this...



    Given how some of the more popular picks have fizzled out (Dune), I'm think Ymo might be onto something.
    I don't know what you are doing right now, but if you aren't listening to the DBR Podcast, you're doing it wrong.

  18. #98
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Ok, after much hemming and hawing, we are just going to go ahead and have a boxoffice contest for winter. With the recent success of Shang-Chi ($94 mil Labor Day weekend), it appears moviegoers are somewhat returning to theaters and Hollywood is -- at least for now -- ready to actually release significant films into theaters once again.

    But, here is the caveat... if you pick a film that gets moved off our schedule then that is just your loss. You will not get a re-pick. There are certainly some films that have moved around a lot and would seem to be more likely to move again than other films. Top Gun: Maverick (which seemed like it might be a part of our contest a few weeks ago) is now on its 7th different release date (currently May 27th of 2022). Venom 2 and No Time to Die have each had like 4 or 5 release dates. It feels like some studios are quicker to move films than others. Disney and Warner have been pretty firm in their dates. Maybe that makes a Disney/Warner release a little more attractive. I dunno, you each need to decide.

    Anyway, for folks who have not done this before, you are attempting to pick the 5 films that will generate the most domestic (not international!!) boxoffice during the winter season. We are defining the season as October 1 (I want us to have a chance to pick Venom) to Feb 28th. You can pick any film released in that time frame. Yes, that is a long time, but it will give you a lot of interesting films to pick from. We will determine the winner based on boxoffice receipts from October 1 through March 27th. If we have not formally declared the winners before March 27th, the contest will end at that time. Please make sure you pick 5 movies. You will get no extra credit for picking only 4 and you will be disqualified if you pick 6.

    Here is the list of top contenders, ordered by release date:
    Venom: Let There Be Carnage - Oct 1
    James Bond: No Time to Die - Oct 8
    Dune - Oct 22
    Eternals - Nov 5
    Ghostbusters: Afterlife - Nov 19
    Encanto - Nov 24
    Spider-man: No Way Home - Dec 17
    Sing 2 - Dec 22
    Matrix: Resurrections - Dec 22
    Morbius - Jan 28
    Uncharted - Feb 18

    I know that is fewer films than usual, but it feels like those are the top contenders. However, in addition to those films, you should feel free to go "off the board" and select "other." This would mean that if any other film cracks the top 5, then you would be a winner. You need not name the film you are picking for "other." That is a change from past years but one that I think is worth making this time around. Here are some of the films that could be good "other" contenders:
    The Many Saints of Newark - Oct 1
    Halloween Kills - Oct 15
    King Richard - Nov 19
    House of Gucci - Nov 24
    West Side Story - Dec 10
    The King's Man - Dec 22
    Moonfall - Feb 4

    You must turn in your vote via the poll at the top of this thread by Wed Sept 29. I urge folks to post their picks and the rationale behind them as well. We always have a fun discussion. Happy voting!!

    -Jason "I really hope we do not look back on this in a couple months and say, 'wow, only 4 of those films got released' but it is entirely possible" Evans
    I'm seriously looking forward to the new Matrix movie but I'm also nervous about the series being ruined too... Although the trailer looked pretty good. I guess we'll just have to wait and see right?

    I don't anticipate that many of these movies release dates will be pushed (due to covid) (fingers crossed). How often does that happen with big box office like these?

  19. #99
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Hot'Lanta... home of the Falcons!
    Quote Originally Posted by basketballamadeus View Post
    I don't anticipate that many of these movies release dates will be pushed (due to covid) (fingers crossed). How often does that happen with big box office like these?
    Are you kidding? Pretty much every big-budget movie being released right now had its date pushed due to Covid. Some have been moved multiple times. Tom Cruise's Top Gun: Maverick has had like 5 different release dates.

    You are correct that once a film starts to get a robust marketing campaign, it is pretty unlikely that it will get moved. Only Covid shutdowns, that close large numbers of theaters, tend to move films once you get within a month or two of the release date. But, none of these releases are written in stone. If there was some new surge of the virus, I would not be shocked if some of the Xmas and January films moved to a new date.

    -Jason "the Warner Bros movies are the most likely to hold their date because of the simultaneous HBO Max release" Evans
    I don't know what you are doing right now, but if you aren't listening to the DBR Podcast, you're doing it wrong.

  20. #100
    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    So, I wanna know what YmoBeThere thinks of this...



    Given how some of the more popular picks have fizzled out (Dune), I'm think Ymo might be onto something.

    Looks better than I expected. But I tend to overreact to trailers.. It would be the bright spot in a bad slate of picks by me. Hopefully between it and the field pick I can do decently.

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