View Poll Results: Which will be the top 5 boxoffice winners of winter?

Voters
28. You may not vote on this poll
  • Venom: Let There Be Carnage

    12 42.86%
  • James Bond: No Time to Die

    14 50.00%
  • Dune

    16 57.14%
  • Eternals

    16 57.14%
  • Ghostbusters: Afterlife

    9 32.14%
  • Encanto

    8 28.57%
  • Spider-man: No Way Home

    27 96.43%
  • Sing 2

    11 39.29%
  • Matrix: Resurrections

    15 53.57%
  • Morbius

    1 3.57%
  • Uncharted

    1 3.57%
  • Other (field)

    7 25.00%
Multiple Choice Poll.
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  1. #1
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    Top 5 Movies of Winter 2021-22

    Ok, after much hemming and hawing, we are just going to go ahead and have a boxoffice contest for winter. With the recent success of Shang-Chi ($94 mil Labor Day weekend), it appears moviegoers are somewhat returning to theaters and Hollywood is -- at least for now -- ready to actually release significant films into theaters once again.

    But, here is the caveat... if you pick a film that gets moved off our schedule then that is just your loss. You will not get a re-pick. There are certainly some films that have moved around a lot and would seem to be more likely to move again than other films. Top Gun: Maverick (which seemed like it might be a part of our contest a few weeks ago) is now on its 7th different release date (currently May 27th of 2022). Venom 2 and No Time to Die have each had like 4 or 5 release dates. It feels like some studios are quicker to move films than others. Disney and Warner have been pretty firm in their dates. Maybe that makes a Disney/Warner release a little more attractive. I dunno, you each need to decide.

    Anyway, for folks who have not done this before, you are attempting to pick the 5 films that will generate the most domestic (not international!!) boxoffice during the winter season. We are defining the season as October 1 (I want us to have a chance to pick Venom) to Feb 28th. You can pick any film released in that time frame. Yes, that is a long time, but it will give you a lot of interesting films to pick from. We will determine the winner based on boxoffice receipts from October 1 through March 27th. If we have not formally declared the winners before March 27th, the contest will end at that time. Please make sure you pick 5 movies. You will get no extra credit for picking only 4 and you will be disqualified if you pick 6.

    Here is the list of top contenders, ordered by release date:
    Venom: Let There Be Carnage - Oct 1
    James Bond: No Time to Die - Oct 8
    Dune - Oct 22
    Eternals - Nov 5
    Ghostbusters: Afterlife - Nov 19
    Encanto - Nov 24
    Spider-man: No Way Home - Dec 17
    Sing 2 - Dec 22
    Matrix: Resurrections - Dec 22
    Morbius - Jan 28
    Uncharted - Feb 18

    I know that is fewer films than usual, but it feels like those are the top contenders. However, in addition to those films, you should feel free to go "off the board" and select "other." This would mean that if any other film cracks the top 5, then you would be a winner. You need not name the film you are picking for "other." That is a change from past years but one that I think is worth making this time around. Here are some of the films that could be good "other" contenders:
    The Many Saints of Newark - Oct 1
    Halloween Kills - Oct 15
    King Richard - Nov 19
    House of Gucci - Nov 24
    West Side Story - Dec 10
    The King's Man - Dec 22
    Moonfall - Feb 4

    You must turn in your vote via the poll at the top of this thread by Wed Sept 29. I urge folks to post their picks and the rationale behind them as well. We always have a fun discussion. Happy voting!!

    -Jason "I really hope we do not look back on this in a couple months and say, 'wow, only 4 of those films got released' but it is entirely possible" Evans
    I don't know what you are doing right now, but if you aren't listening to the DBR Podcast, you're doing it wrong.

  2. #2
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    Outside Philly
    The Matrix Resurrections trailer looks prettttty good and is already generating viral excitement.

    https://youtu.be/9ix7TUGVYIo

  3. #3
    Quote Originally Posted by bundabergdevil View Post
    The Matrix Resurrections trailer looks prettttty good and is already generating viral excitement.

    https://youtu.be/9ix7TUGVYIo
    Quote Originally Posted by PackMan97 View Post
    Matrix 4 trailer is out. Not quite sure what to think about it. To me, the trailer disappoints. Lots of actions, much of which must be from the later parts of the movie.
    Also, it appears some semi-ambivalence.

  4. #4
    The challenge I have with Matrix 4 is that while I loved the first movie, the second movie was bad and the third worse.

    We've got two Marvel movies and a half Marvel movie plus Dune all in this contest. I just don't know if there is enough good will left for a "reboot" of Matrix, so to speak.

    I do wonder if Dune's simultaneous release on HBO Max will hurt it's numbers. I know I'll be watching it on HBO Max. I ain't going into a movie theater any time soon. Are any other movies set for dual release?

    I remember sleeping on the original Sing. It will be interesting if Sing 2 can go the distance in this contest.

  5. #5
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    Quote Originally Posted by YmoBeThere View Post
    Also, it appears some semi-ambivalence.
    Hah. Well, look, his handle tells you everything you need to know about his tastes!

  6. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by bundabergdevil View Post
    Hah. Well, look, his handle tells you everything you need to know about his tastes!
    My tastes are better than most, not as good as some ...and I know a stinker when I see one!

  7. #7
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    Quote Originally Posted by PackMan97 View Post
    My tastes are better than most, not as good as some ...and I know a stinker when I see one!
    I’m pretty sure you just called me a stinker! Or maybe Keanu. Or both…

  8. #8
    Quote Originally Posted by bundabergdevil View Post
    I’m pretty sure you just called me a stinker! Or maybe Keanu. Or both…
    Your own insecurities betray you.

    I was referring to Matrix 2, 3 and UNC.

  9. #9
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    Quote Originally Posted by PackMan97 View Post
    I do wonder if Dune's simultaneous release on HBO Max will hurt it's numbers. I know I'll be watching it on HBO Max. I ain't going into a movie theater any time soon.
    In connection with that, do HBO Max numbers count as "boxoffice" in terms of this contest?

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by Phredd3 View Post
    In connection with that, do HBO Max numbers count as "boxoffice" in terms of this contest?
    Nope. I'm not even sure how we would count them as there is no ticket sale dollar amount associated with an HBO Max viewing. Same with Disney+ if Disney chooses to move any of its releases to that platform (as they did with Black Widow, causing much teeth gnashing from ScarJo).
    I don't know what you are doing right now, but if you aren't listening to the DBR Podcast, you're doing it wrong.

  11. #11
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    No votes yet for Encanto or Sing 2... do we think this is gonna be a family film free zone this holiday season? The moment they start vaccinating kids U12, I suspect family films are gonna start taking off!
    I don't know what you are doing right now, but if you aren't listening to the DBR Podcast, you're doing it wrong.

  12. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Nope. I'm not even sure how we would count them as there is no ticket sale dollar amount associated with an HBO Max viewing. Same with Disney+ if Disney chooses to move any of its releases to that platform (as they did with Black Widow, causing much teeth gnashing from ScarJo).
    Disney made it a premium offering. So you've only been able to watch Black Widow on Disney+ if you pony up an extra one-time $30 fee. I think it releases on Disney+ regular in about a month. I assumed HBO would be using basically the same model with Dune, but I could be wrong about that. What tweaked ScarJo was that Disney wasn't counting that revenue for artist pay outs, and there are no limits on the numbers of viewers on a streaming device (so, if there had been enough interest, our 6-member family could have watched it for $30 total - which is much cheaper than seeing it at $10+ per head).

  13. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    No votes yet for Encanto or Sing 2... do we think this is gonna be a family film free zone this holiday season? The moment they start vaccinating kids U12, I suspect family films are gonna start taking off!
    I voted for both, actually. I think one way or another, families will find a way to see them over Thanksgiving/Christmas. There will be too many adults going stir crazy not to let the kiddos watch a movie, even in a theater. Of course, there's a decent chance, if things are bad enough, that Disney does a simultaneous release with Encanto, too, but that becomes less likely if the current wave (hopefully) subsides a bit by then. It's already showing signs, knock on wood.

  14. #14
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    Quote Originally Posted by Phredd3 View Post
    Disney made it a premium offering. So you've only been able to watch Black Widow on Disney+ if you pony up an extra one-time $30 fee. I think it releases on Disney+ regular in about a month. I assumed HBO would be using basically the same model with Dune, but I could be wrong about that. What tweaked ScarJo was that Disney wasn't counting that revenue for artist pay outs, and there are no limits on the numbers of viewers on a streaming device (so, if there had been enough interest, our 6-member family could have watched it for $30 total - which is much cheaper than seeing it at $10+ per head).
    Self-quoting to make a correction: Closer reading suggests that Disney was in fact counting the Disney+ revenue as "box office" for the purpose of the artist bonus payments. ScarJo simply felt that was likely done mostly to generate Disney+ subscribers, and would generate a less lucrative payout. Also, she had discussed it with Disney well before the suit.

    HBO's simultaneous releases to date have NOT used the "extra fee" model. So if that continues, yes, it would be very hard to quantify.

  15. #15
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    Quote Originally Posted by Phredd3 View Post
    HBO's simultaneous releases to date have NOT used the "extra fee" model. So if that continues, yes, it would be very hard to quantify.
    Yeah, Warner is releasing everything this year on HBO Max as well as in theaters... and Hollywood is not happen about it.

    David Chase on Many Saints of Newark - The Sopranos creator David Chase has admitted he's "extremely angry" about the hybrid HBO Max and cinema release for the upcoming prequel movie. As part of Warner Bros' 2021 release program, the movie will have a hybrid release – something that Chase said was disheartening, especially as they wanted to differentiate this from the TV show.

    Dune director Denis Villenueve -- "The way it happened, I'm still not happy. Frankly, to watch Dune on a television, the best way I can compare it is to drive a speedboat in your bathtub. For me, it's ridiculous. It's a movie that has been made as a tribute to the big-screen experience."

    There are plenty more. Filmmakers want to, well, make films not make TV shows. Villeneuve's speed boat comment is pretty funny.
    I don't know what you are doing right now, but if you aren't listening to the DBR Podcast, you're doing it wrong.

  16. #16
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    Quote Originally Posted by JasonEvans View Post
    Yeah, Warner is releasing everything this year on HBO Max as well as in theaters... and Hollywood is not happen about it.

    David Chase on Many Saints of Newark - The Sopranos creator David Chase has admitted he's "extremely angry" about the hybrid HBO Max and cinema release for the upcoming prequel movie. As part of Warner Bros' 2021 release program, the movie will have a hybrid release – something that Chase said was disheartening, especially as they wanted to differentiate this from the TV show.

    Dune director Denis Villenueve -- "The way it happened, I'm still not happy. Frankly, to watch Dune on a television, the best way I can compare it is to drive a speedboat in your bathtub. For me, it's ridiculous. It's a movie that has been made as a tribute to the big-screen experience."

    There are plenty more. Filmmakers want to, well, make films not make TV shows. Villeneuve's speed boat comment is pretty funny.
    "Speedboat in your bathtub," is a funny analogy though somewhat over the top IMO. I think that "speedboat in your swimming pool." would be more accurate.

    But even though it's been literally centuries since I saw the first Dune movie, I hated it so much that perhaps I'm being a bit harsh with anything* Dune-related.




    *Except the first book.

  17. #17
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    I'm surprised that such a huge MCU release as Eternals has gotten votes from less than half of the participants so far.
    Q "Why do you like Duke, you didn't even go there." A "Because my art school didn't have a basketball team."

  18. #18
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    Still deciding on my choices, but this bolsters my thinking that there is no way that Eternals isn't one of the 5.

    Domestic theaters just received the opposite of a bad late-Friday news dump. Disney has confirmed that they have made their long-awaited decision on length of theater exclusivity for their next wave of releases. It suggests the initial success of “Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings” did exhibition’s cause some good.

    Five of their next six titles, including Marvel’s “Eternals,” all of which are set to open during the rest of 2021, will not reach Disney+ or Hulu until at least 45 days after their theatrical release. Their animated “Encanto,” opening at Thanksgiving, will reach the streaming platform after 30 days.
    https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/...203020795.html

    Still mind boggled about those that have chosen against it. That's like skipping out on "Avengers" for the first phases of the MCU. For die-hards (which I'm admittedly not), it will be a "must see".
    Q "Why do you like Duke, you didn't even go there." A "Because my art school didn't have a basketball team."

  19. #19
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    Quote Originally Posted by CameronBornAndBred View Post
    Still deciding on my choices, but this bolsters my thinking that there is no way that Eternals isn't one of the 5.

    https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/...203020795.html

    Still mind boggled about those that have chosen against it. That's like skipping out on "Avengers" for the first phases of the MCU. For die-hards (which I'm admittedly not), it will be a "must see".
    Far be it for me to give away voting advice**, as this contest is at least somewhat about beating your fellow competitors, but I suspect Eternals won't only attract Marvel die-hards. It is directed by Chloe Zhao, one of the most artistic and compelling directors in the world today. She just won a couple truckloads of awards (including Best Picture and Best Director Oscars) for Nomadland a few months ago. I've heard the imagery in Eternals is going to be unlike anything we've ever seen in a Marvel movie. There are going to be folks who have never seen a Marvel movie who will show up to see what Chloe can do with a $200 mil budget (by comparison, Nomadland cost $5 million to make). And it is an affront to moviemaking to say, "I'm sure it will look fine on my home TV" when a director like Chloe Zhao is involved.

    -Jason "**- or maybe I am sandbagging and telling you what you want to hear, not what you need to know" Evans
    I don't know what you are doing right now, but if you aren't listening to the DBR Podcast, you're doing it wrong.

  20. #20
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    This is a hard one to decide which movie to leave on the cutting room floor. I'm sure I shot my chances by not going with Dune, although I personally don't have much interest in going to a movie theater for 2.5 hours to watch a movie about politics, even though it's sci-fi politics.

    I always like to make at least one pick that is of something that I'm hoping will surprise, so for me that choice was Ghostbusters. Similar to the Matrix in that it has been years since the last one (I'm not counting the female reboot), yet not like the Matrix I think more people will be excited about it since the story looks to be fresh.

    Eternals, Spidey and Venom were my "there's no way those aren't in the top 5" picks. I tossed in Encanto as my kids movie pick.
    Q "Why do you like Duke, you didn't even go there." A "Because my art school didn't have a basketball team."

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