Dukies in the NBA 2021-22

[CDu]

The Lonzo revisionism is pretty confounding to me. He may technically have a higher ceiling than Devonte Graham but he is/was feast or famine offensively and frankly not a great distributor, which ideally a point guard should be. I'm perfectly fine with the Pelicans not giving him a huge contract. He has absolutely no offensive game other than three pointing which is still a work in progress. I think it's an even trade with Devonte as far as production, with the benefit that one came drastically cheaper than the other.

As far as Kira Lewis, I don't see much there either. He's fast, and that's about it.

It's less about losing Ball, and more about the awful trade they made. They should have just let Ball walk. They gained no tangible assets in the trade and actually took on salary for players who aren't good.

As for Ball, I think you are underselling him a bit. No, he's not a great halfcourt offensive player. But he is on the short list of best defensive guards in the league. Watching him and Caruso (one of the other key free agent acquisitions for the Bulls), it's absolutely phenomenal what those guys can do on the defensive side. Ball is versatile and incredibly smart on that end of the floor. He is likely never going to be a lead guard offensively, but he's solid enough offensively that his elite defense makes him valuable.

[Phredd3]

How do the endorsements compare to the likely value of his next big contract, though? He's not risking his current contract, he's risking the next one, so it seems like that's what we should be comparing the endorsement money to (it should be quite a bit bigger than the current one).

That's understood. The Forbe's article citation was just to show that the potential is already there, if Zion can win some hardware and make it stick. I apologize for not making that part of my thinking clear enough.

[Duke79UNLV77]

How do the endorsements compare to the likely value of his next big contract, though? He's not risking his current contract, he's risking the next one, so it seems like that's what we should be comparing the endorsement money to (it should be quite a bit bigger than the current one).

Well, he signed a $75 million deal just to wear shoes before he even played a pro game. https://www.si.com/nba/2019/07/24/zi...ion-five-years

His aspirations have to be in the LeBron, MJ, KD stratosphere. Those guys have made much more money for endorsements than salaries. I agree he needs to focus on staying fit, but that is separate from whether he should look to move on from NO if it doesn't get some help for him.

As for the comment on Lonzo Ball's defense, maybe his ability is excellent, but I watched a good bit of NO games last year and his interest level on defense was terrible. Both from watching their games and advanced stats, for example, Kyrie was a much better defensive guard last year. Lonzo's interest level on defense may be higher with a new team, and, well, Kyrie hasn't stopped anyone yet this year.

[CDu]

Kevin Durant got hurt right before free agency with a far worse injury (Achilles Tendon tear) than anything Zion has ever had, and his value didn’t plummet at all. And he was at least a decade older than Zion when he suffered that awful injury.

Kyrie Irving has had as many injuries as just about anybody in the league, including a knee injury that was at least as serious as any injury Zion has had, and his value didn’t seem to plummet at all.

If I were Zion I would take the risk in order to get the hell out of New Orleans. Otherwise, he’s going to end up like Archie Manning. And Zion has reached a higher level of performance than Archie ever did, so it would be an even bigger shame if he were stuck in New Orleans for the vast majority of his career.

Neither Durant nor Irving are as reliant on their athleticism as Zion is. Both of those guys are guys whose dominance is based on their phenomenal skill level. Not that Zion isn't skilled. Just that he isn't nearly as skilled as those guys.

Also, Irving's injury history was all fairly minor, nagging stuff aside from the kneecap injury. And he was well removed from the kneecap injury by the time he signed his big contract.

With Zion, given his dependence on his athleticism and his current size and already long history of lower-body injuries, a major injury in the next year or two would likely be fairly problematic for his next contract. Maybe someone would still bite the bullet and sign him anyway. But I suspect he'd have trouble getting a max deal.

[sagegrouse]

Yeah, that's a fair point. He's going to need to stay on the court to do either of those things, obviously, but endorsements have to play a significant role in his decision-making. It's not clear how Forbe's is calculating his endorsement money (year-by-year, or everything counts in the year the deal is signed), but it is possible that his endorsements already exceed his salary.

How do the endorsements compare to the likely value of his next big contract, though? He's not risking his current contract, he's risking the next one, so it seems like that's what we should be comparing the endorsement money to (it should be quite a bit bigger than the current one).

Counting Duke and the Pelicans, Zion has played in 118 out of 197 games, or 59.9 percent. In his two best seasons, Duke and NOP 2021, or about 85 percent of his teams' games. I think "staying on the court" is a problem for Zion.

[Acymetric]

Well, he signed a $75 million deal just to wear shoes before he even played a pro game. https://www.si.com/nba/2019/07/24/zi...ion-five-years

His aspirations have to be in the LeBron, MJ, KD stratosphere. Those guys have made much more money for endorsements than salaries. I agree he needs to focus on staying fit, but that is separate from whether he should look to move on from NO if it doesn't get some help for him.

He can sign the extension and still leave (too many examples of this to list), I am not arguing that he should stay in New Orleans. Only that he should take guaranteed money when it is presented to him.

Edit: Question, are those huge endorsement deals like the shoe deal fully guaranteed?

[luvdahops]

It's less about losing Ball, and more about the awful trade they made. They should have just let Ball walk. They gained no tangible assets in the trade and actually took on salary for players who aren't good.

As for Ball, I think you are underselling him a bit. No, he's not a great halfcourt offensive player. But he is on the short list of best defensive guards in the league. Watching him and Caruso (one of the other key free agent acquisitions for the Bulls), it's absolutely phenomenal what those guys can do on the defensive side. Ball is versatile and incredibly smart on that end of the floor. He is likely never going to be a lead guard offensively, but he's solid enough offensively that his elite defense makes him valuable.

And he's made his impact felt right away with the Bulls as a result. With LaVine and DeRozan, and a solid passing big in Vucevic, they don't need Lonzo to be a lead guard offensively, so he can pick his spots on that end. And his defense has been elite out of the box, and sets a very positive tone for the team overall, which had question marks on D coming coming in.

Couldn't agree more on your trade value points. Temple is a serviceable enough 3 and D guy, but the very definition of replaceable, and probably at lower cost. Sato has some offensive versatility (can play all 3 perimeter spots competently, but more in a jack of all trades/master of none way), and is a liability defensively. For a team with playoff aspirations, both are back end of the rotation guys at best, and certainly not additive in any way.

[OZZIE4DUKE]

So when is Zion expected to be back on the court and playing again?

[SouthernDukie]

So when is Zion expected to be back on the court and playing again?

I don’t know of any firm timetable, but the Pelicans were going to look at his foot again next week. If it looks good they would start slowly ramping him up. Sadly, I think the earliest we can expect to see him is mid to late November.

[Steven43]

Irving's injury history was all fairly minor, nagging stuff aside from the kneecap injury. And he was well removed from the kneecap injury by the time he signed his big contract.

https://nothinbutnets.com/2021/06/14...story-updates/

Irving has had three major injury issues for which he missed significant time (as well as a multitude of other injuries all over his body that when you add them all up becomes a significant amount of time lost to nagging injuries). The first major injury was to his foot while at Duke, which caused him to miss most of the season. And the second and third serious injury issues involved his left kneecap.

He had a second surgery related to his original kneecap injury (June of 2015) in May of 2018 and then signed a contract with Brooklyn in July of 2019. So that was barely more than a year of time having elapsed. I’m not so sure that qualifies as him having been “well removed” from his kneecap problems at the time he signed with Brooklyn.

Yes, Zion has had some injury issues, no doubt. But has a single one of his injuries caused him to miss as much time as Irving had to miss three separate times due to injury? I’m honestly asking the question because I do not know the answer. Thanks for your input. 👍

[CDu]

https://nothinbutnets.com/2021/06/14...story-updates/

Irving has had three major injury issues for which he missed significant time (as well as a multitude of other injuries all over his body that when you add them all up becomes a significant amount of time lost to nagging injuries). The first major injury was to his foot while at Duke, which caused him to miss most of the season. And the second and third serious injury issues involved his left kneecap.

He had a second surgery related to his original kneecap injury (June of 2015) in May of 2018 and then signed a contract with Brooklyn in July of 2019. So that was barely more than a year of time having elapsed. I’m not so sure that qualifies as him having been “well removed” from his kneecap problems at the time he signed with Brooklyn.

Yes, Zion has had some injury issues, no doubt. But has a single one of his injuries caused him to miss as much time as Irving had to miss three separate times due to injury? I’m honestly asking the question because I do not know the answer. Thanks for your input. 👍

The second surgery was a minor surgery, and he was a full season removed from that when he signed with Brooklyn.

And yes, Zion has played less regularly than Kyrie. He has played just 81 of 150 games (and counting) due to an assortment of knee and foot problems. He has played much less than Irving played in his pre-Brooklyn contract days. Prior to 2019 (his first year after signing with Brooklyn), Irving had never played less than 51 games. He played in over 75% of games, whereas Zion is batting around 50%.

[WillJ]

I watched a bunch of the Knicks/Bulls game and, while it's a small sample in the new year, it did make me reevaluate RJ a little bit. One way to rank players is whether, on a playoff team, they could be the best player, the second best player, etc. I've come to think that RJ's ceiling is going to be a 3rd-best player type...he just doesn't have a dominant skill, IMO. Note that being the 3rd best player on a playoff team is still a very high-level of achievement - Jrue Holiday! - but it would mean that he's not going to be a top star or a second-banana star. I had previously thought he had second banana potential, but now I'm not so sure.

[phaedrus]

I watched a bunch of the Knicks/Bulls game and, while it's a small sample in the new year, it did make me reevaluate RJ a little bit. One way to rank players is whether, on a playoff team, they could be the best player, the second best player, etc. I've come to think that RJ's ceiling is going to be a 3rd-best player type...he just doesn't have a dominant skill, IMO. Note that being the 3rd best player on a playoff team is still a very high-level of achievement - Jrue Holiday! - but it would mean that he's not going to be a top star or a second-banana star. I had previously thought he had second banana potential, but now I'm not so sure.

Funny that you'd say that after a game where he was second on the team in scoring and minutes, scored an efficient 20 points, and likely guarded one of the Bulls' star wings (Derozan or Lavine) for much of the night - neither of whom shot very efficiently - all in a win over a hot conference rival.

That said, you watched the game and I didn't, and I've seen RJ play enough that I have asked the same questions as you. He's a hard worker and plays with intensity, though, so whatever his ceiling is, I think he will reach it.

[CDu]

I watched a bunch of the Knicks/Bulls game and, while it's a small sample in the new year, it did make me reevaluate RJ a little bit. One way to rank players is whether, on a playoff team, they could be the best player, the second best player, etc. I've come to think that RJ's ceiling is going to be a 3rd-best player type...he just doesn't have a dominant skill, IMO. Note that being the 3rd best player on a playoff team is still a very high-level of achievement - Jrue Holiday! - but it would mean that he's not going to be a top star or a second-banana star. I had previously thought he had second banana potential, but now I'm not so sure.

I'm not even sure if "3rd banana" is realistic. He's at best the 5th best player on an okay-but-not-great Knicks team right now (Randle, Fournier, Walker, and shockingly Rose are better; cases can be made for Robinson and even Burks). I agree that his problem is that he doesn't have an elite skill. He's a decent rebounder for a wing, but just an okay ballhandler, not a great passer, a mediocre shooter, and a bad defender. As the Knicks have gotten better, his role has gotten smaller.

He's not a good enough ballhandler or shooter and he's not athletic enough to be a lead player on the wing. He's still young, and maybe Thibs can turn him into a good defender. It hasn't happened yet, but that's probably his best hope is to get good at defense and be a key defender on a team with 3-4 really good scorers.

[AGDukesky]

I watched a bunch of the Knicks/Bulls game and, while it's a small sample in the new year, it did make me reevaluate RJ a little bit. One way to rank players is whether, on a playoff team, they could be the best player, the second best player, etc. I've come to think that RJ's ceiling is going to be a 3rd-best player type...he just doesn't have a dominant skill, IMO. Note that being the 3rd best player on a playoff team is still a very high-level of achievement - Jrue Holiday! - but it would mean that he's not going to be a top star or a second-banana star. I had previously thought he had second banana potential, but now I'm not so sure.

To this point in his career I get the same impression. He just does not seem alpha or trustworthy enough to just give the ball and say go make a play. This might not be a perfect comparison and I’m not claiming he is this caliber of player, but he reminds me of James Worthy. His court awareness is just not high enough and he is a bit of a hammer instead of a knife - if that makes sense.

[CDu]

Funny that you'd say that after a game where he was second on the team in scoring and minutes, scored an efficient 20 points, and likely guarded one of the Bulls' star wings (Derozan or Lavine) for much of the night - neither of whom shot very efficiently - all in a win over a hot conference rival.

That said, you watched the game and I didn't, and I've seen RJ play enough that I have asked the same questions as you. He's a hard worker and plays with intensity, though, so whatever his ceiling is, I think he will reach it.

The Knicks' strategy was to double DeRozan and LaVine (who is dealing with a thumb injury to his non-shooting hand, which limited his ability to attack off the dribble) every time they got the ball. It was definitely not an individual defensive performance by Barrett (or any Knick in particular). On offense, the focal points were Walker/Rose (33 points on 20 shots in 48 minutes combined) and Randle, and the Bulls definitely keyed on those guys and Fournier defensively. That forced Randle to create the offense for others (9 assists) and left guys like Barrett, Toppin, Robinson, and Gibson to feast in off-ball opportunities.

[fraggler]

I've always seen his ceiling as Jimmy Butler. Butler doesn't really do anything at an elite level that is easy to point out, and certainly took time to ascend when he got to the league, but he is a dog and a grinder and has developed into a top 25? player. Not sure if Barrett has whatever it takes to reach Butler levels of impact, but early on at least statistically, Barrett is ahead in his 3rd year.

[phaedrus]

The Knicks' strategy was to double DeRozan and LaVine (who is dealing with a thumb injury to his non-shooting hand, which limited his ability to attack off the dribble) every time they got the ball. It was definitely not an individual defensive performance by Barrett (or any Knick in particular). On offense, the focal points were Walker/Rose (33 points on 20 shots in 48 minutes combined) and Randle, and the Bulls definitely keyed on those guys and Fournier defensively. That forced Randle to create the offense for others (9 assists) and left guys like Barrett, Toppin, Robinson, and Gibson to feast in off-ball opportunities.

Fair enough. Teaches me to comment on a game I didn't watch. How about those Packers, though?

[CDu]

I've always seen his ceiling as Jimmy Butler. Butler doesn't really do anything at an elite level that is easy to point out, and certainly took time to ascend when he got to the league, but he is a dog and a grinder and has developed into a top 25? player. Not sure if Barrett has whatever it takes to reach Butler levels of impact, but early on at least statistically, Barrett is ahead in his 3rd year.

I think Butler was/is a better pure athlete, and I think his better functional athleticism. Barrett isn't a bad athlete, but relatively speaking I think Butler had more explosiveness and better know-how. He's a better ballhandler, stronger, a better leaper, and just a smarter player overall. He plays with better balance than Barrett, who always feels like he's at an odd angle with low leverage.

But in terms of output, Butler's elite skill is and has always been the ability to draw fouls. His free throw rate is about 60% higher than Barrett's. He's also a better shooter (83% FT shooter for his career vs Barrett's <70%), and takes better shots (TS% of 57% to Barrett's 51%). And has developed his game to become a terrific ballhandler and playmaker.

Maybe Barrett can improve with age, but he's starting from substantially behind where Butler was in terms of bball IQ and skill set.

And Butler is definitely a top-25 player. He's arguably a fringe top-10 guy (he's been 3rd-Team All-NBA each of the last 4 years, despite playing at the the most talented position in the NBA).

[phaedrus]

Maybe Barrett can improve with age, but he's starting from substantially behind where Butler was in terms of bball IQ and skill set.

Well, he's not as far behind Butler as 22-year old rookie Butler was behind prime Butler.