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  1. #441
    So...with two weeks to go, here's my all-chaos scenario. Who's in, if...

    - Georgia defeats Georgia Tech and Alabama (13-0) - both seem likely, and if both happen, they're obviously in
    - Alabama defeats Auburn - likely
    - Iowa defeats Nebraska - likely
    - The winner of Ohio State-Michigan loses in the Big 10 Championship game to Iowa - unlikely
    - Michigan State defeats Penn State - likely
    - Cincinnati defeats ECU - likely
    - Houston defeats UCONN - likely
    - Houston defeats Cincinnati in the AAC Championship game - unlikely
    - Oklahoma State defeats Oklahoma - they're probably favored
    - Baylor defeats Texas Tech - likely
    - Baylor defeats Oklahoma State in the Big 12 Championship game - unlikely
    - Ole Miss defeats Mississippi State in the Egg Bowl - likely
    - Oregon defeats Oregon State and then avenges their loss to Utah in the Pac 12 Championship game - likely/unlikely
    - Wake Forest defeats Boston College - likely
    - Pittsburgh defeats Syracuse - likely
    - Notre Dame defeats Stanford - likely
    - BYU defeats USC - likely
    - UTSA defeats North Texas and the winner of Western Kentucky/Marshall in the Conference USA Championship game - likely
    - Louisiana defeats Louisiana-Monroe and then defeats App State in the Sun Belt Championship game - likely
    - San Diego State defeats Boise State and then defeats Utah State, Air Force, or Boise State in the MWC Championship game - likely

    That's not a particularly far-fetched scenario at all. The only real upsets that I see there are Iowa beating the winner of Ohio State/Michigan, Houston beating Cincinnati, Baylor beating Oklahoma State, and Oregon beating Utah. That leaves you with three of the these teams, ordered by number of losses, then by this week's Coaches Poll:

    - #20 UTSA (13-0, Conference USA Champions, best two wins Illinois and...Memphis? UNLV?)

    - #4 Cincinnati (12-1, lost in conference championship game, best two wins Notre Dame and...SMU? Indiana?)
    - #5 Notre Dame (11-1, no conference championship game, best two wins Wisconsin and...Purdue?)
    - #16 Houston (12-1, AAC Champions, best two wins Cincinnati and...SMU?)
    - #22 San Diego State (12-1, MWC Champions, best two wins Utah and Boise State)
    - #23 Louisiana (12-1, Sun Belt Champions, best two wins App State (twice))

    - #2 Alabama (11-2, lost in conference championship game, best two wins Mississippi and...Mississippi State?)
    - #3 Ohio State (11-2, lost in conference championship game, best two wins Michigan and Michigan State or 10-2, best two wins Michigan State and Penn State)
    - #6 Michigan (11-2, lost in conference championship game, best two wins Ohio State and Wisconsin or 10-2, best two wins Wisconsin and Penn State)
    - #7 Oklahoma State (11-2, lost in conference championship game, best two wins Oklahoma and Baylor)
    - #8 Ole Miss (10-2, best two wins Texas A&M and Mississippi State)
    - #9 Oklahoma (10-2, best two wins Iowa State and...Texas? Nebraska?)
    - #10 Baylor (11-2, Big 12 Champions, best two wins Oklahoma and Oklahoma State)
    - #11 Oregon (11-2, Pac 12 Champions, best two wins Ohio State and Utah round 2)
    - #12 Iowa (11-2, Big 10 Champions, best two wins Big 10 Championship game and Iowa State)
    - #13 Michigan State (10-2, best two wins Michigan and Penn State)
    - #15 BYU (10-2, no conference championship game, best two wins Utah and... Arizona State?)
    - #17 Pittsburgh (11-2, ACC Champions, best two wins Clemson and Wake Forest) or #21 Wake Forest (11-2, ACC Champions, best two wins Pittsburgh and NC State)

    Pick three of 18

    Based on this scenario, taking into account conference championships and each team's best two wins, I'd go with Alabama, Baylor, and Iowa. Notre Dame is tempting, but really? That schedule (other than Cincinnati) ended up being pretty horrible. Could you really put the loser of Ohio State-Michigan or the loser of the Big 10 Championship game in over 11-2 Iowa? Could Oregon possibly overcome bad losses to Stanford (by quality) and Utah (by margin)? Ole Miss with those two wins and losses to Alabama and Auburn?

  2. #442
    Quote Originally Posted by BlueDevil2K View Post
    Pick three of 18
    I think Alabama and Notre Dame would be locks in that scenario (I agree with you that Notre Dame would be lame, but it would happen). The 4th team would be tricky, but it would go to one of the 2 loss power conference teams, not UTSA etc. Note that you left out a relevant game – if Wisconsin beats Minnesota next week, Iowa isn't going to the Big 10 title game.

    Love dreaming about the chaos scenarios though!

  3. #443
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Raleigh, NC
    Love the chaos writeup. I seem to recall in the past there being some kind of "chaos simulator" website that let you pick different wins/losses and see how teams would be ranked.

  4. #444
    Quote Originally Posted by Wander View Post
    I think Alabama and Notre Dame would be locks in that scenario (I agree with you that Notre Dame would be lame, but it would happen). The 4th team would be tricky, but it would go to one of the 2 loss power conference teams, not UTSA etc. Note that you left out a relevant game – if Wisconsin beats Minnesota next week, Iowa isn't going to the Big 10 title game.

    Love dreaming about the chaos scenarios though!
    Yep - just missed the edit window to go back and add Minnesota over Wisconsin. Thanks!

  5. #445
    Quote Originally Posted by Acymetric View Post
    Love the chaos writeup. I seem to recall in the past there being some kind of "chaos simulator" website that let you pick different wins/losses and see how teams would be ranked.
    This isn't exactly what you described, but are you thinking of 538's simulator?

    I find it useful, although I'm more optimistic on Cincy than it is--my view is if they win out (definitely not a given), they're more than 82% likely to make the playoff. Historically, getting in the playoff correlates better with strength of record than various power indexes (as IMO it should), and Cincy is still #2 there. Excluding last year, which had strange COVID effects, I believe only 2014 TCU (#4, replaced by #6 Ohio State), 2018 Ohio State (#4, replaced by #6 Oklahoma), and 2019 Georgia (#4, replaced by #5 Oklahoma) have been in the top 4 and not gotten into the playoffs.

  6. #446
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Raleigh, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by vick View Post
    This isn't exactly what you described, but are you thinking of 538's simulator?

    I find it useful, although I'm more optimistic on Cincy than it is--my view is if they win out (definitely not a given), they're more than 82% likely to make the playoff. Historically, getting in the playoff correlates better with strength of record than various power indexes (as IMO it should), and Cincy is still #2 there. Excluding last year, which had strange COVID effects, I believe only 2014 TCU (#4, replaced by #6 Ohio State), 2018 Ohio State (#4, replaced by #6 Oklahoma), and 2019 Georgia (#4, replaced by #5 Oklahoma) have been in the top 4 and not gotten into the playoffs.
    That's it! Thanks!

  7. #447
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    Undisclosed
    Egg Bowl tonight at 7:30 in Starkville.

    Miss. St. favored by 2.5 even though Ole Miss is ranked #8 and the Bulldogs are unranked.

    Always a fun game!
    Birds aren’t real. Do your own research!

  8. #448
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    Undisclosed
    Egg avowal not disappointing so far . . . . (ESPN)
    Birds aren’t real. Do your own research!

  9. #449
    This UM/OSU game is old school football. Snow, turnovers, low score, great D.
    Lots of fun.

  10. #450
    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Location
    North of Durham
    Quote Originally Posted by Mtn.Devil.91.92.01.10.15 View Post
    This UM/OSU game is old school football. Snow, turnovers, low score, great D.
    Lots of fun.
    Agreed. To all those who think good football only happens in the south, I think this is what football is all about. Fight me on it.

    And this makes me appreciate high def TVs - the snow looks awesome.

  11. #451
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Raleigh, NC
    Quote Originally Posted by CrazyNotCrazie View Post
    Agreed. To all those who think good football only happens in the south, I think this is what football is all about. Fight me on it.

    And this makes me appreciate high def TVs - the snow looks awesome.
    I love cold weather football. Hate that we'll never have another snowy Superbowl, glad I got to witness it before it went the way of the dodo (on TV I mean, not in person).

    Might have to put that game on...I was using my second screen to watch Elon basketball.

  12. #452
    Ohio State is about to catch an L in Ann Arbor to Michigan.

  13. #453
    scottdude8's Avatar
    scottdude8 is offline Contributor, Zoubek disciple, and resident Wolverine
    Join Date
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    DO NOT JINX THIS FOR ME GUYS ok thanks.
    Scott Rich on the front page

    Trinity BS 2012; University of Michigan PhD 2018
    Duke Chronicle, Sports Online Editor: 2010-2012
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  14. #454
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
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    Outside Philly
    Quote Originally Posted by CameronDuke View Post
    Ohio State is about to catch an L in Ann Arbor to Michigan.
    Plenty of clock left.

  15. #455
    Quote Originally Posted by bundabergdevil View Post
    Plenty of clock left.
    Yep, 15 minutes left. Ohio state needs to take the 3 points here. If they go for it and don’t get it, I think this one’s just about over. Will be a huge morale lift for Michigan and killer for Ohio State.

  16. #456

    28-20 Michigan

    14:05 left.

    May get interesting.

  17. #457
    Join Date
    Jan 2010
    Location
    Outside Philly
    Quote Originally Posted by CameronDuke View Post
    Yep, 15 minutes left. Ohio state needs to take the 3 points here. If they go for it and don’t get it, I think this one’s just about over. Will be a huge morale lift for Michigan and killer for Ohio State.
    And a huge morale lift when they go for it, get it, then score the TD.

    Gutsy playing by OSU. Michigan better respond.

  18. #458
    Quote Originally Posted by bundabergdevil View Post
    And a huge morale lift when they go for it, get it, then score the TD.

    Gutsy playing by OSU. Michigan better respond.
    Michigan is moving the sticks and chewing up lots of clock. A score here (field goal or TD) and this one is over.

  19. #459

    Likely the Ballgame

    Good win for Harbaugh. He deserves this. It was time.

    Michigan’s offensive line is impressive. They just lined up and ran it down Ohio State’s throat that drive.

  20. #460
    Join Date
    Nov 2007
    Location
    Raleigh, NC
    Great, now OSU is gonna be all made when we play them.

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