2025 Men's Basketball Recruiting

[DavidBenAkiva]

Your reasoning is great right up to this part. NIL could well change this equation, assuming that the players in question are eligible to graduate from high school a year early. There aren't that many kids who do high school in three years, but it is certainly possible for someone who is dedicated, and for star players (i.e. probably only the top couple players in any given class), it could actually be worth a fair amount of money.

High school students can sign NIL deals. Also, it's not like the Boozers need money. I am not sure about the Flaggs. Then again, having money has never stopped someone from wanting more. And being at Duke might help boost NIL valuation. All things being equal, I doubt they reclassify.

[Phredd3]

High school students can sign NIL deals. Also, it's not like the Boozers need money. I am not sure about the Flaggs. Then again, having money has never stopped someone from wanting more. And being at Duke might help boost NIL valuation. All things being equal, I doubt they reclassify.

A fair criticism of my criticism. My working assumption was that the Duke exposure would very much boost NIL value, but maybe the difference wouldn't be enough to matter. There's probably not enough data to even know for sure, even if we had access to that data.

[DavidBenAkiva]

A fair criticism of my criticism. My working assumption was that the Duke exposure would very much boost NIL value, but maybe the difference wouldn't be enough to matter. There's probably not enough data to even know for sure, even if we had access to that data.

It's very possible I am overly naïve about this, but I don't think that NIL is the primary motivator for a lot of these elite recruits. Many of them are choosing between several great choices. For TJ Power, he's looking at Duke (2022 Final Four), UNC ('22 Final Four), UVA (2019 National Champs), Iowa (2 All-Americans last 2 seasons), and BC (odd man out, but it makes sense as the local team). He'd be successful, I assume, at any of these places and probably make fine money on the side. I think his decision will come down to where he thinks he fits best and where he can have the best career, in college and possibly the NBA. That's true for the Boozers, Flaggs, and others that haven't narrowed down that short list yet, either. They really can't pick a bad option. Very few of these top 25 players transfer. Most just go to the NBA after a year or two. Even the borderline 5-stars like Power are going to go to a high major team and play a prominent role there. NIL is just something that is out there. Maybe it tips the scales if the recruit truly can't decide between teams. Anyway, that's my thought process. I may be off base.

[HayYou]

High school students can sign NIL deals. Also, it's not like the Boozers need money. I am not sure about the Flaggs. Then again, having money has never stopped someone from wanting more. And being at Duke might help boost NIL valuation. All things being equal, I doubt they reclassify.

Dunleavey didn't need the money either. Didn't stop him going pro. Just because their dad is rich it doesn't mean they don't want their own unimaginable wealth. The "my parents are rich I'm not " argument. Put clearly their dad might buy them a Range Roner but if they go pro they can buy a Ferrari. Which their dad won't buy them. They may not need money but maybe they just want a lot of it.

I expect the age limit to be lowered but I expect the one year removed from HS to be kept in place.

In FB we are seeing huge NIL deals. Well duh. Those are multi-year deals. No one is splashing out 2+ million for an unproven frosh for a single year. But a returning player who we already know is great? Yup he'll get paid.

I'd think that extra year in college might be worth close to 3+ million. There are several ways a player could cash in as a returnee.

The same reasoning as for going pro vs staying in college will soon apply to HS if it doesn't already. No atter how high profile Flagg and the Boozer are their NIL in HS is limited. Not many televised games. It could go up 10 fold in college.

If they reclass next summer they would be shoe ins for All American games. And they'd have millions in the offing. Compared to injury risk in HS playing for "free." Further they might think their games will stagnate fs HS comp they have dominated already.

[JasonEvans]

Dunleavey didn't need the money either. Didn't stop him going pro.

Not disagreeing with all your points but the above is sorta a weak argument. It was a totally different era in 2002 than it is today. Dunleavy turned pro after his junior season and after he had won a national title as a soph. The other members of his class that he had played with for 3 year (JWill and Carlos) were also turning pro. I hardly see his decision as any kind of indication of what the Boozer twins may decide.

Now, if you want a better comp, Austin Rivers fits the bill. His dad was a fabulously wealthy former pro (and current coach) but Austin never hesitated to leave after one season. Cole Anthony would be another good, recent comp in terms of a kid of a rich pro who entered the draft as soon as he could. We already know that Bronny James plans to follow that path too.

Anyway, I agree that there is a chance Flagg and Boozer reclass. Not saying it is likely, but it would not shock me either.

[Indoor66]

Just 'cause PaPa made a lot of money doesn't mean that he is rich. And if he is rich (whatever that means), it doesn't mean that his children have access to any of his money. These are assumptions often based on little or no accurate information.

[DavidBenAkiva]

Dunleavey didn't need the money either. Didn't stop him going pro. Just because their dad is rich it doesn't mean they don't want their own unimaginable wealth. The "my parents are rich I'm not " argument. Put clearly their dad might buy them a Range Roner but if they go pro they can buy a Ferrari. Which their dad won't buy them. They may not need money but maybe they just want a lot of it.

I expect the age limit to be lowered but I expect the one year removed from HS to be kept in place.

In FB we are seeing huge NIL deals. Well duh. Those are multi-year deals. No one is splashing out 2+ million for an unproven frosh for a single year. But a returning player who we already know is great? Yup he'll get paid.

I'd think that extra year in college might be worth close to 3+ million. There are several ways a player could cash in as a returnee.

The same reasoning as for going pro vs staying in college will soon apply to HS if it doesn't already. No atter how high profile Flagg and the Boozer are their NIL in HS is limited. Not many televised games. It could go up 10 fold in college.

If they reclass next summer they would be shoe ins for All American games. And they'd have millions in the offing. Compared to injury risk in HS playing for "free." Further they might think their games will stagnate fs HS comp they have dominated already.

Where do I start? This is classic shifting the goalposts kind of debate. First it was reclassifying and now we're talking about Mike Dunleavy, Jr., leaving Duke after his 3rd year in college to become a lottery pick? Totally different eras, totally different situations.

As for "TV exposure," the Flaggs will be playing at Montverde, part of the NIBC. They play on ESPN about a dozen times per year, more often than most high-major programs as a matter of fact. Sure, their profile would be higher in college than at Montverde, but it's not like they can't and won't be able to cash in, if that is their goal, before getting there. All of this is to say that it depends on their goals. We don't know their goals. Your argument is based solely on profit motivation. I believe that the players and their families are considering that and many other things, like what is the best environment for them to be teens. They're 15. I feel icky thinking about them in terms of how much money they can make and when. I bet their parents do, too. I tend to believe that almost all parents want to put their kids first and foremost in the best place for them to grow up. For almost all kids, that's high school while they are high-school aged.

[JasonEvans]

Where do I start? This is classic shifting the goalposts kind of debate. First it was reclassifying and now we're talking about Mike Dunleavy, Jr., leaving Duke after his 3rd year in college to become a lottery pick? Totally different eras, totally different situations.

As for "TV exposure," the Flaggs will be playing at Montverde, part of the NIBC. They play on ESPN about a dozen times per year, more often than most high-major programs as a matter of fact. Sure, their profile would be higher in college than at Montverde, but it's not like they can't and won't be able to cash in, if that is their goal, before getting there. All of this is to say that it depends on their goals. We don't know their goals. Your argument is based solely on profit motivation. I believe that the players and their families are considering that and many other things, like what is the best environment for them to be teens. They're 15. I feel icky thinking about them in terms of how much money they can make and when. I bet their parents do, too. I tend to believe that almost all parents want to put their kids first and foremost in the best place for them to grow up. For almost all kids, that's high school while they are high-school aged.

Also worth noting... NIL, though a nice chunk of change, is a tiny drop in the bucket compared to what a truly elite basketball player will make by his mid-20s. I'm not saying it is not a consideration, but I suspect one thing Duke pitches is that we set you up to succeed in the NBA and in your post-playing career. That is worth far, far, far more than an extra couple hundred grand in NIL.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Also worth noting... NIL, though a nice chunk of change, is a tiny drop in the bucket compared to what a truly elite basketball player will make by his mid-20s. I'm not saying it is not a consideration, but I suspect one thing Duke pitches is that we set you up to succeed in the NBA and in your post-playing career. That is worth far, far, far more than an extra couple hundred grand in NIL.

While true, there are plenty of players who are highly rated, come to Duke, and don't make NBA dollars: DJ Steward, Matthew Hurt, Cassius Stanley, etc.

Rule of thumb is maximize dollars in the short term without it having it impact your long-term earning potential.

[JasonEvans]

While true, there are plenty of players who are highly rated, come to Duke, and don't make NBA dollars: DJ Steward, Matthew Hurt, Cassius Stanley, etc.

Rule of thumb is maximize dollars in the short term without it having it impact your long-term earning potential.

None of those guys was considered nearly the "sure thing" NBA prospect that Cameron Boozer or Cooper Flagg are. In fact, I think Hurt was the only one of those who was expected to even consider being OAD when he arrived on campus.

I'm just saying that Duke's pitch to these kids is not about maximizing NIL right now, it is about succeeding over the long term.

[scottdude8]

None of those guys was considered nearly the "sure thing" NBA prospect that Cameron Boozer or Cooper Flagg are. In fact, I think Hurt was the only one of those who was expected to even consider being OAD when he arrived on campus.

I'm just saying that Duke's pitch to these kids is not about maximizing NIL right now, it is about succeeding over the long term.

I agree with Jason, I think that effects of NIL are going to be seen more for the guys who are great college players but not ready-made NBA players (hence what we're seeing with so many returning star bigs). If you're not a surefire first round pick, then maximizing the amount of NIL money you make during your prime basketball playing years is much more important than if you know you're going to make guaranteed millions as soon as you sign your first contract. The secondary effects will be on the "fringe" players, many of whom would previously go pro early out of a desire to "start making money now"... those guys can now make as much, if not more, in NIL dollars (at the right school) than they would in the G-League or overseas.

So guys like Flagg and Boozer, who will be Top 10 picks unless something very unexpected happens over the next 4 years, may not be worrying as much about that as a guy who is a borderline 4/5* who may or may not be a OAD. But as we've seen with the ongoing PGA/LIV drama, you never know how money will change people's mindsets.

[JasonEvans]

By the way, class of 2025 has another child of a famous pro in it. Kiyan Anthony is Carmelo's son. He's a PG with a nice stroke. He wasn't getting much attention prior to the summer but has apparently played well and is getting some real looks from bigger schools.

[flyingdutchdevil]

I agree with Jason, I think that effects of NIL are going to be seen more for the guys who are great college players but not ready-made NBA players (hence what we're seeing with so many returning star bigs). If you're not a surefire first round pick, then maximizing the amount of NIL money you make during your prime basketball playing years is much more important than if you know you're going to make guaranteed millions as soon as you sign your first contract. The secondary effects will be on the "fringe" players, many of whom would previously go pro early out of a desire to "start making money now"... those guys can now make as much, if not more, in NIL dollars (at the right school) than they would in the G-League or overseas.

So guys like Flagg and Boozer, who will be Top 10 picks unless something very unexpected happens over the next 4 years, may not be worrying as much about that as a guy who is a borderline 4/5* who may or may not be a OAD. But as we've seen with the ongoing PGA/LIV drama, you never know how money will change people's mindsets.

I mean, you know exactly how money is going to change people's mindsets. It's pretty straightforwad: go where the most money is. Yes, they are exceptions. But they are few and far between.

There is a reason Duke hired a General Manager of basketball. It's about money, or more specifically, figuring out "specialize in helping players enhance their personal and professional skill sets, capitalize on strategic partnerships, including NIL opportunities, and work to support players in navigating the opportunities and challenges that come with being a student-athlete at the highest level."

For those who still think Duke basketball is about academics and preparing you for life after college/basketball, I don't know what to tell you. Yes, Duke has filters like making sure kids aren't headcases or have parents who micromanage their careers (Duke wouldn't go after a kid like Emoni Bates, I imagine), but after that it's about 'winning'. And in this college environment with NIL, 'winning' is highly correlated with 'money'.

[gam7]

Not sure when this happened, but ESPN has updated their Top 25 for the Class of 2025.

The two biggest items of note to me:

1. Three Duke targets appear in the Top 5: Cameron Boozer (#1), Cooper Flagg (#2), and Bryson Tiller (#5).

2. Cayden Boozer does not appear on the list.

[Billy Dat]

Not sure when this happened, but ESPN has updated their Top 25 for the Class of 2025.

The two biggest items of note to me:

1. Three Duke targets appear in the Top 5: Cameron Boozer (#1), Cooper Flagg (#2), and Bryson Tiller (#5).

2. Cayden Boozer does not appear on the list.

I am not sure if it was discussed anywhere on this thread, but I just remembered that Carlos and his ex-wife CeCe pursued pregnancy and birth via in-vitro in order to have a baby (in this case, twins, Cameron and Cayden), in order to save the life of their oldest son, Carmani, who had sickle cell anemia. The twins umbilical cord stem cells were used to help save Carmani. Wild story.

https://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/30/s.../30boozer.html

[dukelifer]

Not sure when this happened, but ESPN has updated their Top 25 for the Class of 2025.

The two biggest items of note to me:

1. Three Duke targets appear in the Top 5: Cameron Boozer (#1), Cooper Flagg (#2), and Bryson Tiller (#5).

2. Cayden Boozer does not appear on the list.

If Cameron and Cayden want to play together- I suspect a team will make that happen.

[heyman25]

https://twitter.com/TravisBranham_/s...57454965678081 Duke coaching staff in Corona. CA

Carter Bryant new name 6'7 Fountain Valley CA
https://twitter.com/TravisBranham_/s...57454965678081

[heyman25]

https://247sports.com/player/carter-bryant-46117580/

Made a mistake . He is 2024

[gam7]

If Cameron and Cayden want to play together- I suspect a team will make that happen.

Yes. You might also be able to say the same thing about Cooper and Ace Flagg.

[SavDukeGrad]

I am not sure if it was discussed anywhere on this thread, but I just remembered that Carlos and his ex-wife CeCe pursued pregnancy and birth via in-vitro in order to have a baby (in this case, twins, Cameron and Cayden), in order to save the life of their oldest son, Carmani, who had sickle cell anemia. The twins umbilical cord stem cells were used to help save Carmani. Wild story.

https://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/30/s.../30boozer.html

I am glad you brought this up. I have re-read this article several times since the Boozer twins exploded on the recruiting scene. Remarkable story. And CeCe is a Duke grad too.

http://www.espn.com/espn/eticket/story?page=boozers