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  1. #281
    Btw, Matt would have lost tonight if his opponent didn’t commit an abominable strategic mistake.

    (All #’s approximate, since based on memory, but correct in any way that matters)

    A very strong player (VSP) found the first round DD with about $4200. Matt had something like 6000. VSP then uses his DD to bet …..1500??! He bets small despite being pitted against playing a 26 game winner and who will certainly have a big total by the time they get to final jeopardy? A guy he will need a lot of good breaks to beat? So he passes on a chance to double up and take the lead?! Wtf?

    That one decision ends up being VERY costly.

    Unsurprisingly VSP got the DD correct, like 90% of his other responses. So not going for a true DD cost him something like $2700 and the lead.

    In double Jeopardy now. Matt finds the the DD and has 10k total, VSP maybe or 7k. Thats a lot for Matt to risk, right? If he’s wrong he will be down a goid amount against VSP. But Matt is no dummy - he, like mega winner James, takes the easiest path to a win, betting it all. And now he’s got 20k and a big lead. Game over, right?

    Not so fast. Despite Matts big double up VSP plays really well and enters Final Jeopardy with enough $ to prevent a runaway. Yay! He’s got a shot!

    Oh, wait…. he doesn’t. VSP bet small on his DD and is now 1.5k short. It’s a runaway, game over for VSP. And Matt wins his 27th in a row for a total of 950k.

    But VSP was so close lets watch FJ to play a little what if. “In the King James Version, these creatures are a plague in Exodus 10, but deemed okay to eat in Leviticus 11”. Hmmm…. locusts? Frogs? Im thinking locusts.

    Matt writes down both frogs and locusts and then crosses off one. VSP-with-really bad-strategy writes down his plague.

    And the miracle happens. Matt gets FJ wrong and VSP gets it correct! VSP wins! He knocks off the 26 time champ!! He wins over 26k and may win much more!! Because remember, he’s a VSP!

    Oh, wait… …I forgot. VSP couldn’t win because he bet small and had 1.5k too little going into final jeopardy. He had a once in a lifetime chance to go into Jeopardy history as the guy who knocked off the king. But noooo… he ”played it safe”.


    [end of morality play]

    Matt is an amazing player. But tonight once again proved he is lucky that - for a reason I can’t fathom - his really, really smart opponents don’t apply junior high level probability principles to their strategy. Hell they don’t even google it. Because Jeopardy betting strategy is a well researched area and the answers are sitting there a couple clicks away. They get their one shot to shine on national TV and win 10’s or 100’s of thousand of dollars and they think throwing away their DD’s is the path to glory? Have they not watched recent kings James and Matt play? I don’t get it.

  2. #282
    Quote Originally Posted by Skydog View Post
    They get their one shot to shine on national TV and win 10’s or 100’s of thousand of dollars and they think throwing away their DD’s is the path to glory? Have they not watched recent kings James and Matt play? I don’t get it.
    How many times do you see it in sports? In reality tv contests (like American Idol or something)? in life in general. Some folks take the big risks and get the big rewards. Most just want to play it safe and not screw things up.

  3. #283
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    Boston area, OK, Newton, right by Heartbreak Hill
    Quote Originally Posted by brevity View Post
    I'm guessing your friend played the episode that aired September 14. That was an interesting Final Jeopardy. Category was Scientific Etymology and the clue was

    2 of the 3 men for whom armalcolite, a dark gray mineral discovered in 1969, is named

    I momentarily stumbled on the "malco" part of that word, thinking of Malcolm X, even though he died in 1965 and the rest of the word didn't lend itself to two other names. Then I ignored the word and focused on the rest of the clue to land on the correct response. Not sure if I could have done all of that and written down my response in 30 seconds while standing on a soundstage, so congratulations to your friend.
    Yes, that's the one.

  4. #284
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    Forest Hills, NY
    Quote Originally Posted by PackMan97 View Post
    How many times do you see it in sports? In reality tv contests (like American Idol or something)? in life in general. Some folks take the big risks and get the big rewards. Most just want to play it safe and not screw things up.
    Loss aversion. A cognitive bias.

  5. #285
    Quote Originally Posted by PackMan97 View Post
    How many times do you see it in sports? In reality tv contests (like American Idol or something)? in life in general. Some folks take the big risks and get the big rewards. Most just want to play it safe and not screw things up.
    But in sports often the big risk/big reward decisions actually are riskier. You are going to fail a triple axel more often than a double axel. But in Jeopardy betting big as a strong favorite is by far the shortest and surest path to victory.

  6. #286
    Quote Originally Posted by Skydog View Post
    But in sports often the big risk/big reward decisions actually are riskier. You are going to fail a triple axel more often than a double axel. But in Jeopardy betting big as a strong favorite is by far the shortest and surest path to victory.
    What do they say? Second place is first loser? A lot depends on your mindset.

  7. #287
    Quote Originally Posted by Skydog View Post
    But in sports often the big risk/big reward decisions actually are riskier. You are going to fail a triple axel more often than a double axel. But in Jeopardy betting big as a strong favorite is by far the shortest and surest path to victory.
    Yes, but the person winning Gold is going to be the one that tries (and lands that triple). The guy in the Hall of Fame is going to be the one that isn't afraid to take (and make) that game winning shot.

    There are those that have the skill, but not that killer instinct. They make great journeymen. They may make a good living at their chose profession, but they'll never be a GOAT.

  8. #288
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Los Angeles
    Quote Originally Posted by Skydog View Post
    Btw, Matt would have lost tonight if his opponent didn’t commit an abominable strategic mistake.

    (All #’s approximate, since based on memory, but correct in any way that matters)

    A very strong player (VSP) found the first round DD with about $4200. Matt had something like 6000. VSP then uses his DD to bet …..1500??! He bets small despite being pitted against playing a 26 game winner and who will certainly have a big total by the time they get to final jeopardy? A guy he will need a lot of good breaks to beat? So he passes on a chance to double up and take the lead?! Wtf?

    That one decision ends up being VERY costly.

    Unsurprisingly VSP got the DD correct, like 90% of his other responses. So not going for a true DD cost him something like $2700 and the lead.

    In double Jeopardy now. Matt finds the the DD and has 10k total, VSP maybe or 7k. Thats a lot for Matt to risk, right? If he’s wrong he will be down a goid amount against VSP. But Matt is no dummy - he, like mega winner James, takes the easiest path to a win, betting it all. And now he’s got 20k and a big lead. Game over, right?

    Not so fast. Despite Matts big double up VSP plays really well and enters Final Jeopardy with enough $ to prevent a runaway. Yay! He’s got a shot!

    Oh, wait…. he doesn’t. VSP bet small on his DD and is now 1.5k short. It’s a runaway, game over for VSP. And Matt wins his 27th in a row for a total of 950k.

    But VSP was so close lets watch FJ to play a little what if. “In the King James Version, these creatures are a plague in Exodus 10, but deemed okay to eat in Leviticus 11”. Hmmm…. locusts? Frogs? Im thinking locusts.

    Matt writes down both frogs and locusts and then crosses off one. VSP-with-really bad-strategy writes down his plague.

    And the miracle happens. Matt gets FJ wrong and VSP gets it correct! VSP wins! He knocks off the 26 time champ!! He wins over 26k and may win much more!! Because remember, he’s a VSP!

    Oh, wait… …I forgot. VSP couldn’t win because he bet small and had 1.5k too little going into final jeopardy. He had a once in a lifetime chance to go into Jeopardy history as the guy who knocked off the king. But noooo… he ”played it safe”.


    [end of morality play]

    Matt is an amazing player. But tonight once again proved he is lucky that - for a reason I can’t fathom - his really, really smart opponents don’t apply junior high level probability principles to their strategy. Hell they don’t even google it. Because Jeopardy betting strategy is a well researched area and the answers are sitting there a couple clicks away. They get their one shot to shine on national TV and win 10’s or 100’s of thousand of dollars and they think throwing away their DD’s is the path to glory? Have they not watched recent kings James and Matt play? I don’t get it.
    But didn’t VSP (along with Matt) get the FJ question wrong ? So it likely wouldn’t have mattered anyway.

    Im perceiving that Matt is getting not exactly bored but … losing some energy and resigned to the fact that he could lose soon and he’ll be fine with it. He doesn’t seem concerned at all when he’s down which has now happened twice in the last 4 nights or so. He seems like he’s mentally/emotionally ready for this to end.

    Plus he’s out of sweaters and he can’t wear that shiny sport coat even one more time!

  9. #289
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Chesapeake, VA.
    Agree with Skydog that it made absolutely no sense for that guy to not go all in when he landed the only DD in the Jeopardy round.

    I also agree that he looks a bit resigned to the fact that he is becoming more vulnerable as time goes on. He does not seem as quick on the buzzer as he used to be. Having said all that, he had a bit of a look of desperation when he his the DD in Double Jeopardy at about 10K and bet it all. His eyes got a little wide, like he knew he absolutely had to have a true daily double and hit it in order to escape, and I think he did look like he wanted to win.

    I really want to see him get to a million bucks. After that I really don't care what happens, although I enjoy watching him play the game. He doesn't strike me as anywhere near as dominant as James was; he is certainly slower to the answers, but he has proven to have a very broad knowledge base.

    I don't have a crystal ball, but if I did, I'd predict that he will get to the one million dollar mark, after which all bets are off; emotionally it has to be draining to keep playing over and over and, lately, to have several close calls. It feels like once he hits a million it will seem like a milestone of some sort, kind of a "mission accomplished" kind of moment, which might make him easier to take down thereafter.
    "We are not provided with wisdom, we must discover it for ourselves, after a journey through the wilderness which no one else can take for us, an effort which no one can spare us, for our wisdom is the point of view from which we come at last to regard the world." --M. Proust

  10. #290
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Watching carolina Go To HELL!
    Quote Originally Posted by brevity View Post
    I'm guessing your friend played the episode that aired September 14. That was an interesting Final Jeopardy. Category was Scientific Etymology and the clue was

    2 of the 3 men for whom armalcolite, a dark gray mineral discovered in 1969, is named

    I momentarily stumbled on the "malco" part of that word, thinking of Malcolm X, even though he died in 1965 and the rest of the word didn't lend itself to two other names. Then I ignored the word and focused on the rest of the clue to land on the correct response. Not sure if I could have done all of that and written down my response in 30 seconds while standing on a soundstage, so congratulations to your friend.
    I didn't watch the show and on first read I had no idea what armalcolite was. But 1969? What happened in 1969? Like maybe on July 20, 1969? Ah ha! ARMstrong, ALdrin and COLlins landed on the moon!

    Elementary, my dear Brevity!
    Ozzie, your paradigm of optimism!

    Go To Hell carolina, Go To Hell!
    9F 9F 9F
    http://www.EGLEW.com


  11. #291
    Quote Originally Posted by tommy View Post
    But didn’t VSP (along with Matt) get the FJ question wrong ? So it likely wouldn’t have mattered anyway.

    Im perceiving that Matt is getting not exactly bored but … losing some energy and resigned to the fact that he could lose soon and he’ll be fine with it. He doesn’t seem concerned at all when he’s down which has now happened twice in the last 4 nights or so. He seems like he’s mentally/emotionally ready for this to end.

    Plus he’s out of sweaters and he can’t wear that shiny sport coat even one more time!
    No, VSP got it correct as I pointed out in my post. VSP and 3rd place correctly picked locusts, Matt answered frogs. In fact I wouldn’t have written the post if VSP missed FJ because in that case his DD bet wouldn’t have mattered.

  12. #292
    Quote Originally Posted by rsvman View Post
    Agree with Skydog that it made absolutely no sense for that guy to not go all in when he landed the only DD in the Jeopardy round.

    I also agree that he looks a bit resigned to the fact that he is becoming more vulnerable as time goes on. He does not seem as quick on the buzzer as he used to be. Having said all that, he had a bit of a look of desperation when he his the DD in Double Jeopardy at about 10K and bet it all. His eyes got a little wide, like he knew he absolutely had to have a true daily double and hit it in order to escape, and I think he did look like he wanted to win.

    I really want to see him get to a million bucks. After that I really don't care what happens, although I enjoy watching him play the game. He doesn't strike me as anywhere near as dominant as James was; he is certainly slower to the answers, but he has proven to have a very broad knowledge base.

    I don't have a crystal ball, but if I did, I'd predict that he will get to the one million dollar mark, after which all bets are off; emotionally it has to be draining to keep playing over and over and, lately, to have several close calls. It feels like once he hits a million it will seem like a milestone of some sort, kind of a "mission accomplished" kind of moment, which might make him easier to take down thereafter.
    I agree he did look a bit fatigued. But its hard to tell how well he’s buzzing because his winning the buzzer battle isn’t just determined by his speed; his opponents’ speed is 50% of that equation. VSP may have great reaction times and great timing. He was a male in his early 20’s (= low rt in general) and could have practiced the timing a lot on his own. In fact VSP’s early buzzer wins and and his quick confident answers are why I perceived him as a big threat early on.

    Since Im on the topic of downright idiotic betting strategies, I see the following suicide move all the time. Very late in game, only a few, likely low value, question left. Second place 2nd is just short of the 50% level needed to prevent a runaway and 3rd place is way behind. This exact scenario actually happens quite frequently.

    Example: 26.5k, 12k and 5k. Four questions left, worth say 400, 400, 400 and 1600. The 1600 clue is given and …..

    Third place person goes for it and gets it right! Congrats third - you just killed the only chance you had to win the game! Your ONLY hope before the question was asked was that 2nd would get it and prevent a runaway. But nooo.. you took the only action that would guarantee a win for the first place guy/gal.

    This may sound esoteric or complicated but it’s actually elementary school level. At any point late in the game you find you are mathematically too far behind to prevent a runaway but 2nd still has a chance to do so your only job is to help 2nd place get there anyway you can.

    Don’t buzz in on any question. If 1st misses a question, sit on your hands, giving 2nd place a shot at getting it right. The one exception to the no buzz rule is when 2nd has already missed a clue. In that case you should go for it every time, hoping to prevent 1st from getting a crack at it.

    Recently I saw this happen with I think 3 $400 questions left. Second place needed ~$900 to prevent a runaway but distant third place swooped in to knock herself out of contention, smiling as she did so. Apparently she can’t add.

  13. #293
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Seattle, WA
    Quote Originally Posted by Skydog View Post
    I agree he did look a bit fatigued. But its hard to tell how well he’s buzzing because his winning the buzzer battle isn’t just determined by his speed; his opponents’ speed is 50% of that equation. VSP may have great reaction times and great timing. He was a male in his early 20’s (= low rt in general) and could have practiced the timing a lot on his own. In fact VSP’s early buzzer wins and and his quick confident answers are why I perceived him as a big threat early on.

    Since Im on the topic of downright idiotic betting strategies, I see the following suicide move all the time. Very late in game, only a few, likely low value, question left. Second place 2nd is just short of the 50% level needed to prevent a runaway and 3rd place is way behind. This exact scenario actually happens quite frequently.

    Example: 26.5k, 12k and 5k. Four questions left, worth say 400, 400, 400 and 1600. The 1600 clue is given and …..

    Third place person goes for it and gets it right! Congrats third - you just killed the only chance you had to win the game! Your ONLY hope before the question was asked was that 2nd would get it and prevent a runaway. But nooo.. you took the only action that would guarantee a win for the first place guy/gal.

    This may sound esoteric or complicated but it’s actually elementary school level. At any point late in the game you find you are mathematically too far behind to prevent a runaway but 2nd still has a chance to do so your only job is to help 2nd place get there anyway you can.

    Don’t buzz in on any question. If 1st misses a question, sit on your hands, giving 2nd place a shot at getting it right. The one exception to the no buzz rule is when 2nd has already missed a clue. In that case you should go for it every time, hoping to prevent 1st from getting a crack at it.

    Recently I saw this happen with I think 3 $400 questions left. Second place needed ~$900 to prevent a runaway but distant third place swooped in to knock herself out of contention, smiling as she did so. Apparently she can’t add.
    I don't know about that - it's not like you and the second-place person are on the same team. If you are definitely not going to win - which is the case as long as 2x(you)<(1st-(2x(2nd)-1st)) - why do you care whether the champion or challenger wins?

    Using your example - let's say 2nd place gets all $2,800 that's left and gets to $14,800. All 1st place needs to put at risk is $3,101. Even if 1st gets it wrong and 3rd doubles up in final, 3rd place is still way short of winning ($10,000 vs. $23,399).
    Just be you. You is enough. - K, 4/5/10, 0:13.8 to play, 60-59 Duke.

    You're all jealous hypocrites. - Titus on Laettner

    You see those guys? Animals. They're animals. - SIU Coach Chris Lowery, on Duke

  14. #294
    Quote Originally Posted by pfrduke View Post
    I don't know about that - it's not like you and the second-place person are on the same team. If you are definitely not going to win - which is the case as long as 2x(you)<(1st-(2x(2nd)-1st)) - why do you care whether the champion or challenger wins?

    Using your example - let's say 2nd place gets all $2,800 that's left and gets to $14,800. All 1st place needs to put at risk is $3,101. Even if 1st gets it wrong and 3rd doubles up in final, 3rd place is still way short of winning ($10,000 vs. $23,399).
    My bad! I was waaay off and you are correct rsvman. I’m the dummy! Or else I need to stop day drinking. Or most likely I need to stop half I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this.I'm a real wanker for saying this. posting as a way to avoid work. 😬

    Ok so if you are in 3rd and your plan is to bet 0 and hope for a 3 stumper then 2nd place stack has to be >= 1/2*(1st-(1st-3rd)), or more simply, >= 1st-you/2. So if 1st has 20k and you have 4k, you need 3rd to have 20k-(4k/2) = 18k for you bey 0 and win if all you miss. (If 2nd has 18k he can reach 36k, so first has to risk 16k+1 to ensure>36k. If 1st risks 16k+1 and both miss 1st will have 4k-1, 2nd has 0, and your 4k with 0 bet wins.

    But if you bet it all and win by getting the trifecta (they both miss and you get it right) you only need 2k. So this needs to be re-calculated to allow for 3rd pace double up. So I’m stopping for now….

    (This post done on toilet - so not totally responsible for errors?)

  15. #295
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Durham, NC
    Did I imagine it, or was one of the questions last night What is DEFENESTRATION?

  16. #296
    Quote Originally Posted by aimo View Post
    Did I imagine it, or was one of the questions last night What is DEFENESTRATION?
    Yes, it was the $2,000 answer in the category "Def"initions - What is defenestrate. Apparently, the Jeopardy folks hang out around here. (found the episode online)

  17. #297
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    Chesapeake, VA.
    Quote Originally Posted by aimo View Post
    Did I imagine it, or was one of the questions last night What is DEFENESTRATION?
    Yep. Easy-peasy for anybody who hangs out around here.

  18. #298
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
    Location
    Chesapeake, VA.
    Oh, and by the way, he passed a million dollars in winnings on tonight's show.

  19. #299
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
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    Undisclosed
    Quote Originally Posted by aimo View Post
    Did I imagine it, or was one of the questions last night What is DEFENESTRATION?
    My favorite word!

    And I keep going back to this — if you are NOT getting thrown out of a window, are you “fenestrating?”
    “Fútbol is life!” — Dani Rojas, Richmond Greyhounds

  20. #300
    Join Date
    Feb 2007
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    Chesapeake, VA.
    Quote Originally Posted by OldPhiKap View Post
    My favorite word!

    And I keep going back to this — if you are NOT getting thrown out of a window, are you “fenestrating?”
    Ha! Pretty amusing, but to fenestrate means to put a window into something, or to make a window or opening in something.

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