Originally Posted by
Kedsy
Maybe. To compete in the hypothetical "super-association," a school like Duke would have to basically match NIL money for all sports (including football). I don't think there's any way attempting to do something like that wouldn't bleed a great deal of cash from the university's coffers.
I don't anticipate a world in which some sports are in the new super-association and other sports are still under NCAA jurisdiction, so if Duke doesn't join the super-association, we'll become a lot less relevant in all sports. For a few years, Duke and Gonzaga and Villanova and a few others will remain competitive in basketball, but eventually (my guess is 5 or so years after the big schools break away) the top players will gravitate toward the bigger NIL money and the probably more attractive rules of the super-association. Without the top players, Duke et al will become significantly less competitive (as well as not eligible to win the super-association basketball championship), and both the donor money and the NIL corporate money will dry up. It won't happen instantly, but my guess is ten or twelve years from now, Duke won't have many if any top 100 players on its roster, nor will any other team not in the SuperAss. And at that point, the school will have to decide whether to go the low-major/Division II route or the no-scholarship Division III route.