2022 NBA Mock Draft

[azzefkram]

This was my position before the VT game and it remains the case now. I love what Keels brings to this Duke team, but I don't see how an NBA team would take him over Griffin. Both are going in the 1st round.

I'm with you. I think Trevor is great, but any GM taking Trevor over AJ is crazy-pants (assuming AJ's medicals are clean).

[luvdahops]

This was my position before the VT game and it remains the case now. I love what Keels brings to this Duke team, but I don't see how an NBA team would take him over Griffin. Both are going in the 1st round.

Sam Vecenie's latest:

Paolo #2
AJ #10
Trevor #18
Wendell #20
Mark #26

Auburn's Jabari Smith is now his #1 by a slight margin, but Paolo and Holmgren remain very much in the mix for the top spot.

[SouthernDukie]

Sam Vecenie's latest:

Paolo #2
AJ #10
Trevor #18
Wendell #20
Mark #26

Auburn's Jabari Smith is now his #1 by a slight margin, but Paolo and Holmgren remain very much in the mix for the top spot.

AJ is #10?!!! Color me very surprised. I think he's a great player and all, and I'm happy as a clam to have him on our team, but I didn't think he was Lottery pick material yet.

[fraggler]

AJ is #10?!!! Color me very surprised. I think he's a great player and all, and I'm happy as a clam to have him on our team, but I didn't think he was Lottery pick material yet.

He was a lottery pick prior to the season, but fell because he was injured and not playing. All the potential (keyword) he had prior is starting to show plus an even better 3pt shot than advertised (assuming it holds up). Basically just back to where he started.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Sam Vecenie's latest:

Paolo #2
AJ #10
Trevor #18
Wendell #20
Mark #26

Auburn's Jabari Smith is now his #1 by a slight margin, but Paolo and Holmgren remain very much in the mix for the top spot.

Paolo, Chet, and Jabari are the clear 3 choices. Gotta be a really fun draft to see who goes first. I just want Paolo to avoid Detroit, Sacramento, and NO. That's my only wish...

[JasonEvans]

AJ is #10?!!! Color me very surprised. I think he's a great player and all, and I'm happy as a clam to have him on our team, but I didn't think he was Lottery pick material yet.

Actually, Sam Vecenie's comments on AJ say he does not expect him to go at #10. He says either AJ will continue to show the kind of skills that had NBA evaluators salivating when he was in high school, in which case he would elevate into the top 7 in the draft... or there will continue to be concerns about how a lottery pick isn't getting more time at Duke in which case his stock would slip into the mid-late teens. Sam thinks there is very little chance AJ stays in the late lottery.

Sam also says it is possible AJ comes back... it ain't like his family needs the money. His dad made over $10 mil playing professional basketball and has been earning quite nicely as a NBA assistant coach for well over a decade (he's been the Raptors lead assistant for the past 4 years, likely earning close to $1 mil per season).

[DavidBenAkiva]

Actually, Sam Vecenie's comments on AJ say he does not expect him to go at #10. He says either AJ will continue to show the kind of skills that had NBA evaluators salivating when he was in high school, in which case he would elevate into the top 7 in the draft... or there will continue to be concerns about how a lottery pick isn't getting more time at Duke in which case his stock would slip into the mid-late teens. Sam thinks there is very little chance AJ stays in the late lottery.

Sam also says it is possible AJ comes back... it ain't like his family needs the money. His dad made over $10 mil playing professional basketball and has been earning quite nicely as a NBA assistant coach for well over a decade (he's been the Raptors lead assistant for the past 4 years, likely earning close to $1 mil per season).

I found that analysis interesting since Florida State has sent two bench players to the lottery each of the past two NBA Drafts. If AJ is averaging 20+ MPG and continues to display that efficient shooting form with defensive versatility, I could definitely see him rising in the draft even if he comes off the bench. Who would he replace in the starting lineup? The only candidates are Williams and Keels. Frankly, I don't see either coming out of the starting lineup. Duke has 6 starters right now. It's a good situation.

[JasonEvans]

I found that analysis interesting since Florida State has sent two bench players to the lottery each of the past two NBA Drafts. If AJ is averaging 20+ MPG and continues to display that efficient shooting form with defensive versatility, I could definitely see him rising in the draft even if he comes off the bench. Who would he replace in the starting lineup? The only candidates are Williams and Keels. Frankly, I don't see either coming out of the starting lineup. Duke has 6 starters right now. It's a good situation.

Yup, but I think NBA folks would be quite concerned if he went back to getting like 10 minutes per game and even less than that in really competitive games (like he was prior to the exam break). I am not saying such a scenario is likely, but it is recent enough so that Sam chose not to discount it completely.

[azzefkram]

I found that analysis interesting since Florida State has sent two bench players to the lottery each of the past two NBA Drafts. If AJ is averaging 20+ MPG and continues to display that efficient shooting form with defensive versatility, I could definitely see him rising in the draft even if he comes off the bench. Who would he replace in the starting lineup? The only candidates are Williams and Keels. Frankly, I don't see either coming out of the starting lineup. Duke has 6 starters right now. It's a good situation.

AJ seems to be growing into the closing line-up for Duke. I think his playing time will increase, maybe not at the current starters expense but probably impacting Theo and Joey.

[flyingdutchdevil]

Actually, Sam Vecenie's comments on AJ say he does not expect him to go at #10. He says either AJ will continue to show the kind of skills that had NBA evaluators salivating when he was in high school, in which case he would elevate into the top 7 in the draft... or there will continue to be concerns about how a lottery pick isn't getting more time at Duke in which case his stock would slip into the mid-late teens. Sam thinks there is very little chance AJ stays in the late lottery.

Sam also says it is possible AJ comes back... it ain't like his family needs the money. His dad made over $10 mil playing professional basketball and has been earning quite nicely as a NBA assistant coach for well over a decade (he's been the Raptors lead assistant for the past 4 years, likely earning close to $1 mil per season).

AJ's brother has the same father, and that didn't stop him from declaring for the draft last year (and then not get drafted). I get he was older.

I think the whole $$$ rationale doesn't hold as much water as it used to. Lottery players will go if they are projected to go in the lottery. At Duke, high ranked frosh declare regardless of what their draft stock is. Also, with the insane class we have coming in, which includes tons of options between the 3-5, AJ is gonna face a ton of competition next year. For me, this is the main reason why Roach may be the only returning top 8 player next year.

I suspect AJ will play 20-25 min a game and finish games. Williams's mediocre FT shooting and lack of perimeter defending will likely prevent him from finishing games, especially if we have a hot AJ. All this means AJ will likely increase his draft stock.

[CameronBornAndBred]

Sam Vecenie's latest:

Paolo #2
AJ #10
Trevor #18
Wendell #20
Mark #26

Auburn's Jabari Smith is now his #1 by a slight margin, but Paolo and Holmgren remain very much in the mix for the top spot.

Good thing that Scheyer has an excellent class coming in.

[azzefkram]

Good thing that Scheyer has an excellent class coming in.

Tell me about it. Duke stands a strong chance of losing 7 of it's top 8 players.

[DukieTiger]

Sam Vecenie's latest:

Paolo #2
AJ #10
Trevor #18
Wendell #20
Mark #26

Auburn's Jabari Smith is now his #1 by a slight margin, but Paolo and Holmgren remain very much in the mix for the top spot.

If that comes to fruition we need to get Scheyer into the Green Room and on TV proclaiming THIS as the now-greatest day in Kentucky basketball history. Make a splash early in Jon’s career as HC.

[CDu]

AJ is #10?!!! Color me very surprised. I think he's a great player and all, and I'm happy as a clam to have him on our team, but I didn't think he was Lottery pick material yet.

He was lottery pick material before he ever stepped foot on a college court. Then he got hurt, and folks started to second-guess themselves. Now he's starting to perform again - and doing things that folks weren't even sure he was good at before college, like shooting - and follks are realizing "oh yeah, there was a reason that this guy was a projected lottery pick coming in."

So, no, he hasn't played like that lottery pick for Duke yet. But between his high school career and the circumstantial evidence affecting his start at Duke, folks are reverting back to their prior assumptions as he starts to show a return to form.

AJ's brother has the same father, and that didn't stop him from declaring for the draft last year (and then not get drafted). I get he was older.

I think the whole $$$ rationale doesn't hold as much water as it used to. Lottery players will go if they are projected to go in the lottery. At Duke, high ranked frosh declare regardless of what their draft stock is. Also, with the insane class we have coming in, which includes tons of options between the 3-5, AJ is gonna face a ton of competition next year. For me, this is the main reason why Roach may be the only returning top 8 player next year.

I suspect AJ will play 20-25 min a game and finish games. Williams's mediocre FT shooting and lack of perimeter defending will likely prevent him from finishing games, especially if we have a hot AJ. All this means AJ will likely increase his draft stock.

I'll cosign this. It's a nice thought saying that Griffin might return. But I think it's really unrealistic. He's going to be a first round pick.

Also, regarding the bolded part and below:

Tell me about it. Duke stands a strong chance of losing 7 of it's top 8 players.

Yes, I will be fairly surprised if any of the top 8 other than Roach are back for next year. We have a loaded class coming in, and I'd STILL suspect we'll need to be players in the transfer market.

[Steven43]

Sam Vecenie's latest:

Paolo #2
AJ #10
Trevor #18
Wendell #20
Mark #26

Isn’t it fun getting a virtually new Duke team every year? We were fortunate to have Moore for three seasons — quite the luxury I’d say.

With most of our better players (those who will end up playing professionally) we’re just starting to get to know them for 6-7 months of actual basketball…..and then they’re gone.

[CDu]

Isn’t it fun getting a virtually new Duke team every year? We were fortunate to have Moore for three seasons — quite the luxury I’d say.

With most of our better players (those who will end up playing professionally) we’re just starting to get to know them for 6-7 months of actual basketball…..and then they’re gone.

There are definitely pros and cons. The downside is we definitely lose the opportunity to "really get to know these guys" at Duke. The upside is that the team can rebound from a down season much easier this way. See, for example, 2020-21 vs 2021-22.

[scottdude8]

Tell me about it. Duke stands a strong chance of losing 7 of it's top 8 players.

This is why I think HCIW Scheyer's next big recruiting task is convincing Joey to stay for Year 5. Of course he's not going to be the star, and he may not even be a starter, but having an experienced voice in the locker room makes all the difference, especially for a young coach.

Also, if Wendell keeps playing like he is but is still only projected as a late first round pick, I wonder if Scheyer could convince him to come back for one more year for the shot at having his name in the Cameron rafters... could a lifetime of endorsements as one of that very prestigious fraternity outweigh the extra earnings of entering the NBA one year earlier? Plus, he'd be the face of the program as it undergoes a once-in-a-generation transition between coaches. We all know from experience what a longshot that is, but the times they are a changing...

[azzefkram]

This is why I think HCIW Scheyer's next big recruiting task is convincing Joey to stay for Year 5. Of course he's not going to be the star, and he may not even be a starter, but having an experienced voice in the locker room makes all the difference, especially for a young coach.

Also, if Wendell keeps playing like he is but is still only projected as a late first round pick, I wonder if Scheyer could convince him to come back for one more year for the shot at having his name in the Cameron rafters... could a lifetime of endorsements as one of that very prestigious fraternity outweigh the extra earnings of entering the NBA one year earlier? Plus, he'd be the face of the program as it undergoes a once-in-a-generation transition between coaches. We all know from experience what a longshot that is, but the times they are a changing...

I would love year 4 of Wendell, but that seems like a long shot. I remember reading somewhere a year or so ago that Wendell viewed himself as a OAD coming in to Duke. If he's getting first round buzz, I have a tough time seeing him staying.

Joey is a wild card for me. I could see him staying or moving on for a more prominent role.

I could see Coach John bringing in 3 or 4 players via the transfer portal. That would be something new.

[CDu]

This is why I think HCIW Scheyer's next big recruiting task is convincing Joey to stay for Year 5. Of course he's not going to be the star, and he may not even be a starter, but having an experienced voice in the locker room makes all the difference, especially for a young coach.

Also, if Wendell keeps playing like he is but is still only projected as a late first round pick, I wonder if Scheyer could convince him to come back for one more year for the shot at having his name in the Cameron rafters... could a lifetime of endorsements as one of that very prestigious fraternity outweigh the extra earnings of entering the NBA one year earlier? Plus, he'd be the face of the program as it undergoes a once-in-a-generation transition between coaches. We all know from experience what a longshot that is, but the times they are a changing...

I'd be very uncomfortable with the idea of Scheyer "convincing" Moore to come back. If the kid wants to go pro, I don't know that trying to talk him out of it is the way to start your career as a coach. Don't get me wrong; if Moore decides he wants to come back, I'd be thrilled. But that paragraph reads a little too much like something Roy Williams would do.

Baker might be a different story, you never know. He obviously has no NBA prospects. But he may decide (especially if he's graduated) that he'd rather spend his fifth year somewhere in a clear-cut starting role rather than coming off the bench again.

I think that most likely the only returning veteran with meaningful experience on the court is going to be Roach. Which is why I'd be in favor of another transfer or two coming in to help provide that leadership and experience.

[sagegrouse]

Joey is a wild card for me. I could see him staying or moving on for a more prominent role.

Or -- perhaps, perhaps -- taking his degree and moving on with life outside of college?